• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-42
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• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.217-240
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• 2015

This paper uses the modified gravity model of international trade to examine the impact of ODA on the export of Korea to 28 aid recipients. In this perspective, the study includes recipient's economic size, trade openness, population, donor's scale of aid and distance between them as key determinants of the export of Korea by using panel data over the period of 2005-2012. To do this task, important econometric methods are fulfilled to test the model adequately, such as panel unit root and panel co-integration test. In addition, the study incorporated the panel OLS, panel GLM and panel EGLS methods. The empirical analysis clearly showed that an increase in Korea's ODA promotes its own exports. The coefficients of recipients's per capita GDP, population and trade openness have a positive impact on Korea's export respectively, while distance between them has a negative impact. Regarding regional dummy variables, aid for the region of Africa and America have a negative impact on Korea's export. Overall, the main implication of this study is that even if it emphasized Korea's economic interests as determinants of ODA disbursements, but it also suggests that an improvement of recipient's economic development, income distribution and educational environment can be an important concern in the future.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.413-438
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• 2009

Tourism is an attractive field of industry to many countries due to its strong potentials in increasing employment rates as well as improving the national image. The positive effect of the tourism on the national economy and globalization has been recognized in Korea. A multilateral effort has been made in order to develop its tourist industry. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the patterns of tourism demand in Korea. The present study analyzes and demonstrates the effects of a nation's characteristics on tourism demand. The study model was based on factors that affected tourism demand, especially emphasizing on the economic size, distance, national income, and language differences from the mother country. In particular, this study highlights the effects of economic relations between the countries and their exchange rate on tourism demand. In summary, this thesis demonstrates that actual national and international panel data enhance the credibility of the research and precisely determine factors that have a direct influence on tourism demand. A corresponding strategy of development and products are required as most tourists show the preference in advanced nations.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.23-45
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• 2023

This study aims to investigate the relationship between institutional distance and FDI and focuses on China's outward FDI. The institutional distance between China and the host country is measured using the institutional quality published by the World Bank. This study collects panel data from 50 countries in which China invested from 2008 to 2019 and use the panel GLS methodology to examine the factors affecting outward FDI through three models. First, this study examines the impact of the absolute value of institutional distance on China's OFDI across all countries in which China invests. Second, this study divides countries with positive and negative institutional distance to China into two groups and examine the relationship between institutional distance and OFDI in each group. Finally, this study examines the non-linear relationship between institutional distance and OFDI from China. To test this, this study adds the squared term of institutional distance to the model. The results of the analysis are as follows Institutional distance is positively related to China's OFDI. The relationship between institutional distance and OFDI is inverted U-shaped in the group of host countries with relatively higher institutional quality than China, but positive in the group of low-quality host countries. In addition, China's OFDI is affected by a combination of institutional and economic factors. The results of this study have implications not only for FDI host countries but also for MNCs' choice of FDI destinations.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.215-237
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• 2011

The paper is basically designed to reveal substitutability or complementary nature of export and import among Korea, China, and Japan by employing unit root test, cointegration technique, and vector error correction model(VECM). Empirical evidences are shown that the trading among these countries has been dominated by a complementary nature in the short run which enables it to promote trading in those countries. In the long run, however, the substitutability nature effects strongly to the trading among Korea, China, and Japan. To this end, it could be tentatively concluded that market-oriented trading policies are more effective to stimulate the export and import in those countries in the short run, while a trading policy has to be selectively implemented by the substitutability nature in the long run basis. For instance, a stability policy for exchange rates and various commercial policies could be set for a short term target. Whereas, the substitutability nature should be counted in building up a new industrial structure or in implementing FTA agreement among Korea, China, and Japan.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.63-87
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to measure the efficiency of Korean container terminals by using SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis). Inputs[Number of Employee, Quay Length, Container Terminal Area, Number of Gantry Crane], and output[TEU] are used for 3 years(2002,2003, and 2004) for 8 Korean container terminals by applying both SFA and DEA models. Empirical main results are as follows: First, Null hypothesis that technical inefficiency is not existed is rejected and in the trasnslog model, the estimate is significant. Second, time-series models show the significant results. Third, average technical efficiency of Korean container terminals are 73.49% in Cobb-Douglas model, and 79.04% in translog model. Fourth, to enhance the technical efficiency, Korean container terminals should increase the handling amount of TEUs. Fifth, both SFA and DEA models have the high Spearman ranking of correlation coefficients(84.45%). The main policy implication based on the findings of this study is that the manager of port investment and management of Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea should introduce the SFA with DEA models for measuring the efficiency of Korean ports and terminals.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2007

Roads in Korea can be classified into four types according to their responsible authorities. For example, Motorway is constructed, managed, and operated by the Korea Highway Corporation. Ministry of Construction and Transportation is in charge of National Highway, and Province Roads are run by each province government. Urban/county Roads are run by corresponding local government. This study analyses the trends of road accidents for each road type. For this purpose, the numbers of accidents, fatalities, and injuries are compared for each road type for last 15 years. The result shows that Urban/County Roads are the most dangerous, while Motorways are the safest, when we simply compare the numbers of accidents, fatalities, and injuries. However, when we compare these numbers by dividing by total road length, National Highway becomes the most dangerous while Province Roads becomes the safest. In the case of road accidents, fatalities, and injuries per vehicle km, which is known as the most objective comparison measure, it turns out that National Highway is the most dangerous roads again. This study also developed time series models to estimate trends of fatalities for each road type. These models will be useful when we set up or evaluate targets of national road safety.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-27
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• 2007

In this study, we investigated the market long-term performance of stock splits by using the Korean Stock Market data from 1998 through 2002. We measured the performance by the event-time portfolio approach with the buy-and-hold abnormal return(BHAR) and the cumulative average abnormal return(CAAR). Also, the calendar-time portfolio approach with one-factor and three factor model were used for avoiding the misspecification model problem. The first of main results in this study was that the stock splits had significantly positive abnormal returns around the month of the stock splits announcements. However, the period BHAR and CAAR after the announcement month were significantly negative. This negative long-term abnormal returns were confirmed by the calendar-time portfolio approach. The results suggested that the abnormal return followed by the stock splits seemed to be positive in the short-term period. Second, there was no the difference of the long term performance between the high and the low split ratios. The operating income performance in the periods followed by the stock splits announcements grew worse. Therefore, the signalling effects, the managers of the firm under considering the stock splits would make use of splits as a form of signals for the upward changes in the cash flow or profits, could not be found. Finally, in contrast to Fama, Fisher, Jensen and Roll(1969), the significant negative abnormal returns following the stock splits were still found irrespective of the change of dividend payout ratio.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.95-105
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• 2002

Under a specific roadway alignment condition by design-speed standards, safety of the roadway is determined by an actual operating speed of a driver. This research takes first lanes of four-lane(hi-direction) rural highways as target facility. It also takes the straight and curved lanes of the selected highways for in-depth study. This study used NC-97 to detect speeds of passenger cars whose speeds are not affected by front vehicles. This research analyzed properties of 85th percentile operating speed at upstream of horizontal and through curves under various alignment conditions. The results show that 53∼65 Percent of drivers drive faster than the posted speed-limit (80KPH) by 14∼20 KPH on average. It also shows that the 85th-percentile operating speeds are the lowest at the middle point of curve length when curve radius is smaller. However, they are lowest at 1/4 point of curve length when curve radius is greater. Along roadways where curve radius is small, difference between upstream speed and the speed along the curve is considerably large. On the other hand. the speed difference is setting smaller as the curve radius is increasing. According to the results, significant variables affecting the 85th percentile operating speeds are curve radius and the 85th-Percentile operating speeds of upstream curves.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.139-146
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• 1997

In this study, centrifugal model tests were performed to investigate the behavior of excavated earth retaining wall with the depth of excavation and different types of wall(aluminum, steel panel). Jumunjin standard sand was used for foundation soil. The raining method was adopted to form the required relative density of the model ground. The lateral earth pressure measured from tests were compared with estimated active earth pressure by Rankine's theory. The test results have shown that the earth pressure acting on the retaining wall and the rotation displacement of the wall are influenced by the depth of excavation and the type of wall. It was found from the test results that the deformation of the wall increases with the depth of excavation.