• 지역연구
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.59-76
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• 2019

본 연구의 목적은 미래도시의 모습을 시나리오로 만들고, 델파이 분석을 통해 미래도시 변화의 시기와 실현 가능성을 분석하는 것이다. 미래도시 시나리오는 빅데이터 분석과 환경스캐닝 기법, 문헌연구를 통해 도시구조, 토지 이용, 교통 및 인프라, 도시개발로 도출되었다. 델파이는 우리나라와 미국, 영국, 호주, 일본, 중국, 인도 등 6개국 24명의 전문가를 통해 진행되었다. 델파이 구조는 시나리오의 실현 가능성을 리커트 5점 척도로 전망할 수 있도록 구성하였으며, 실현 시기를 근미래(10년 이하), 중미래(10~20년), 먼미래(20년 이상)로 설정하였다. 연구의 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 도시구조는 단기적으로 수위 및 광역 대도시(Global and Mega-City)를 중심으로 집중되며, 중장기적으로 지방 중소도시는 쇠퇴할 것으로 전망되었다. 둘째, 토지 이용은 근미래에 수직적, 수평적으로 혼합될 것이며, 공유 공간이 증가될 것으로 예측되었다. 셋째, 교통 및 인프라는 ICT 기반의 통합 플랫폼을 통한 도시관리가 진행되며, 스마트 기술을 통해 공공 및 개인(민간) 교통이 활성화될 것으로 분석되었다. 넷째, 도시개발은 교통 결절지(TOD) 중심의 개발이 활성화될 것이며, 에너지 및 환경 분야에 중점을 둘 것으로 전망되었다.

• 대기
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.541-554
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• 2014

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and $4.6^{\circ}C$ in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about $0.3mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP4.5 scenario and $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The $2^{nd}$ mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above $30^{\circ}C$ per year ($DAY_{TX30}$) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above $20mm\;day^{-1}$ per year ($DAY_{PR20}$) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.57-69
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• 2016

In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.205-216
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• 2015

전 지구와 남한, 북한, 일본 지역을 중심으로 한 동북아시아 지역에 대한 기온, 강수량, 일사량의 미래 변화를 정량적으로 평가하기 위해 총 34개 GCM에 의해 작성된 CMIP5 기후변화 시나리오를 분석하였다. 그 결과 동북아시아 지역에서 전 지구 평균보다 기온과 강수량이 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다. 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 2080년대 북한 지역에서는 비록 GCM 간 예측의 불확실성이 크지만 과거 30년(1971-2000년)에 비해 기온은 $5.1^{\circ}C$, 강수량은 18% 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다. 일사량의 경우 전 지구 평균 일사량은 RCP 2.6 시나리오를 제외한 모든 RCP 시나리오에서 대체로 시간이 경과할수록 감소하는 것으로 예측되었으나 동북아시아 지역에서는 대체로 시간이 경과할수록 운량 감소의 영향으로 일사량이 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.31-46
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• 2015

In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May-June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % ($NO_2$) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.114-128
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• 2019

최근 전 세계적으로 자율주행자동차의 관심이 높이지고 있으며, 이에 따라 자율주행자동차의 안전성도 중요한 화두로 대두되고 있다. 국내에서도 자율주행자동차 실험도시인 K-City 구축 등 자율주행자동차 개발이 활발해짐에 따라, 자율주행자동차의 안전성을 평가할 수 있는 시나리오 개발이 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 경찰청 교통사고 데이터와 텍스트 마이닝 기법을 이용하여 K-City 커뮤니티부 도로 자율주행자동차 실험 시나리오를 개발하였다. 개발 결과, K-City 커뮤니티부 도로에서 자율주행자동차 실험을 위한 총 24개의 시나리오가 개발되었다. 또한, 페가수스 5-레이어 모형을 적용한 Logical 및 Concrete 혼합 시나리오 양식을 최종적으로 도출하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2007년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.74-83
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• 2007

The goal of this study is to establish an integrated watershed hydrologic model for the whole Nakdong River basin whose area is an approximately 24,000 km2. Including a number of watershed elements such as rainfall, runoff, water use, and so on, the proposed model is based on SWAT model, and is used to improve the flow duration curve estimation of ungauged watersheds for Korean Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). The model is also used to recognize quantitatively the river flow variation due to water use elements and large dam effluents in the whole watershed. The established combined watershed hydrologic model, SWAT-Nakdong, is used to evaluate the quantified influences of artificial water balance elements, such as a dam and water use in the watershed. We apply two water balance scenarios in this study: the dam scenario considering effluent conditions of 4 large multi-purpose dams, Andong dam, Imha dam, Namgang dam, and Habcheon dam, and the water use scenario considering a water use for stream line and the effluent from a treatment plant. The two scenarios are used to investigate the impacts on TMDL design flow and flow duration of particular locations in Nakdong River main stream. The results from this study will provide the basic guideline for the natural flow restoration in Nakdong River.

• 정보과학회 컴퓨팅의 실제 논문지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.67-76
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• 2018

사물 인터넷 환경에서 모바일 어플리케이션과 웨어러블 기기를 연동하기 위해 BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) 기반 통신을 많이 활용하고 있다. 특히 BLE 연동 안드로이드 어플리케이션을 개발할 때 개발 환경에서 BLE 에뮬레이션을 지원하지 않아 반드시 웨어러블 기기가 필요한 제약이 있다. 본 연구에서는 처음으로 안드로이드 BLE 에뮬레이터를 설계 및 구현하였다. 이를 활용하여 웨어러블 기기가 없어도 BLE 연동 어플리케이션을 개발할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 그리고 그래프 모델 기반의 안드로이드 BLE 시나리오 자동 생성 방법을 제안하고 자동 생성한 시나리오들을 제안한 안드로이드 BLE 에뮬레이터 상에서 실행하여 어플리케이션의 BLE 응용 프로토콜을 체계적으로 테스트하는데 유용함을 보였다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.251-281
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• 2015

This paper examines the perceptions of sustainability, which is conceptualised as cross-generational social preferences, on the formation of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in a two-stage game in two periods. There are two scenarios are considered: myopic and sustainable development scenarios. The myopic scenario assumes the decision makers only concern the present welfare. Whilst the scenario of sustainable development has two characters: cross-generational fairness and altruism. When both are taken into account, a coalition will be expanded. The numerical example indicates that the marginal cost of the total emissions is the crucial factor for the formation of IEAs. Only when the marginal cost is low, a sustainable system can be succeeded. While, the technological advancement may lead to a more efficient production per unit of emissions, it also encourages countries to emit more in total and have a lower level of welfare. The results confirm the importance of sustainability to IEAs. The lesson learnt from this study is: when decision makers are myopic, the system is unsustainable even if an IEA is formed. Only when the perception of sustainability is considered, the system could be sustainable. Regardless of the existence of IEAs, international environmental conventions shall not neglect the fundamental goal to pursue sustainable development.

• 기본간호학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2017

Purpose: This was a cross-sectional descriptive study in which an exploration was done of how nursing students perceive debriefing and what they think are the most effective debriefing methods for simulation-based nursing education. Methods: A convenience sample of 296 sophomore, junior and senior nursing students from three universities and who had attended simulation classes participated in this study. Survey data garnered was analyzed using descriptive analysis and $x^2$ test. Results: A high majority of the participants (98.3%) saw debriefing as "learning from mistakes", while 62.8% considered it more important than simulations/scenarios. They also perceived debriefing to be effective when they analyzed their colleagues' and their own performances and received feedback. Sophomore students preferred writing a reflection paper as an effective debriefing method compared to junior and senior students. Conclusion: The study findings indicate that debriefing is an important component of simulation-based education and should be considered part of the teaching strategies with debriefing methods dependent on themes and scenarios and what is needed to achieve learning outcomes.