• Title/Summary/Keyword: 2-period model

Search Result 3,132, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

Short-Term Water Quality Prediction of the Paldang Reservoir Using Recurrent Neural Network Models (순환신경망 모델을 활용한 팔당호의 단기 수질 예측)

  • Jiwoo Han;Yong-Chul Cho;Soyoung Lee;Sanghun Kim;Taegu Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.46-60
    • /
    • 2023
  • Climate change causes fluctuations in water quality in the aquatic environment, which can cause changes in water circulation patterns and severe adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems in the future. Therefore, research is needed to predict and respond to water quality changes caused by climate change in advance. In this study, we tried to predict the dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-a, and turbidity of the Paldang reservoir for about two weeks using long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent units (GRU), which are deep learning algorithms based on recurrent neural networks. The model was built based on real-time water quality data and meteorological data. The observation period was set from July to September in the summer of 2021 (Period 1) and from March to May in the spring of 2022 (Period 2). We tried to select an algorithm with optimal predictive power for each water quality parameter. In addition, to improve the predictive power of the model, an important variable extraction technique using random forest was used to select only the important variables as input variables. In both Periods 1 and 2, the predictive power after extracting important variables was further improved. Except for DO in Period 2, GRU was selected as the best model in all water quality parameters. This methodology can be useful for preventive water quality management by identifying the variability of water quality in advance and predicting water quality in a short period.

An Study on Long Run Effects of Determinants on Export of Korean Goods to US (한국의 대미국 수출 결정요인의 장기적 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Mun Seong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.409-433
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this paper, I estimate long-run elasticities of US real GDP and real exchange rate between Korean Won and US Dollar on export of Korean goods to US and analyze changes in their trend by using VECM and rolling regression with a fixed window. For the purposes I use the year data from 1990 to 2013 which are selected from UNCTAD, Korea Trade Association(KTA), and Bank of Korea(BOK). The results are that the long-run elasticities of US real GDP vary from 2.849 to 2.938 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. The elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US Dollar vary from 0.962 to 0.967 for the same period depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. In case of the results through the OLS and the rolling regression, the long-run elasticities of US. real GDP are 3.015 for Basic Model, 2.949 for the modified Model 1, and 2.125 for the modified Model 2 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models and all of them are significant statistically. The average of long-run elasticities of real US GDP before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, the long-run elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US $ are 0.347 for Basic Model, 0.566 for the modified Model 1, and -0.217 for the modified Model 2 for the same period and all of them are significant statistically except for the modified Model 2. The average of long-run elasticities of real exchange rate before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008.

  • PDF

The Effect of Ambiguity Aversion on Self-Protection and Self-Insurance effort (모호성 회피성향이 손실 발생 확률 및 손실 크기를 줄이기 위한 노력에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Ji-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.433-438
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study examined the effects of ambiguity aversion on the self-protection and self-insurance efforts using a two-period model to consider the time difference between making an effort and occurring loss, which is in contrast with the existing one-period model. The loss follows a binary distribution while the distribution is ambiguous. The distribution depends on the state variable. First, the effort of ambiguity averse individuals is not always greater than that of ambiguity neutral ones. Second, the effects of absolute ambiguity aversion (AAA), which does not appear in one-period model, were observed. Not-increasing AAA is a sufficient condition to increase the efforts of ambiguity averse individuals compared to those of ambiguity neutral ones. In addition, the change in effort also depends on the probability function of the state. Lastly, the results hold even when the individual is risk neutral or risk loving. As a result, ambiguity aversion needs to be considered independently with risk aversion.

New Control Strategy for Reducing Switching Losses in Three-Phase Voltage-Source PWM Converters

  • Dong, Xiaopeng;Wang, Zhaoan
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
    • /
    • 1998.10a
    • /
    • pp.366-373
    • /
    • 1998
  • In this paper, a new control strategy to reduce switching losses in three-phase voltage-source PWM converters is proposed according to Modified-Period-Average-Model (MPAN). The basic concept of this strategy is aimed at calculating the phase control voltages for controlling the source currents to be sinusoidal and in phase with the source voltages, and reducing the number of switching in each period. The phase control voltages of Period-Average-Model(PAM) is obtained according to analyzing the operation of PWM converter. In order to reduce the sensitivity to system parameters in PAM, MPAM is deduced. Then a square wave whose frequency is three times of utility frequency is added to the phase control voltages derived from MPAM. The control strategy reduces the switching losses since there exists about one-third blanking time for every phase in one period. The theoretical derivation and the control strategy are experimentally verified on a 2.5 kW three-phase voltage source converter.

  • PDF

인지발달에 근거를 둔 수학학습 유형 탐색

  • 박성태
    • The Mathematical Education
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.17-63
    • /
    • 1995
  • The exploration of Mathematics-learningmodel on the basis of Cognitive development The purpose of this paper is to sequenctialize Mathematics-learning contents, and to explore teaching-learning model for mathematics, with on the basis of the theory of cognitive development and the period of condservation formation for children. The Specific topics are as follows: (1) Systemizing those theories of cognitive development which are related to Mathematics - learning for children. (2) Organizing a sequence of Mathematics - learning, on the basis of experimental research for the period of conservation formation for children. (3) Comparing the effects of 4 types of teaching - learning model, on the basis of inference activity and operational learning principle. $\circled1$ Induction-operation(IO) $\circled2$ Induction-explanation(IE) $\circled3$ Deduction-operation(DO) $\circled4$ Deduction-explanation(DE) The results of the subjects are as follows: (1) Cognitive development theory and Mathe-matics education. $\circled1$ Congnitive development can be achieved by constant space and Mathematics know-ledge is obtained by the interaction of experience and reason. $\circled2$ The stages of congnitive development for children form a hierarchical system, its function has a continuity and acts orderly. Therefore we need to apply cognitive development for children to teach mathematics systematically and orderly. (2) Sequence of mathematical concepts. $\circled1$ The learning effect of mathematical concepts occurs when this coincides with the period of conservation formation for children. $\circled2$ Mathematics Curriculum of Elementary Schools in Korea matches with the experimental research about the period of Piaget's conservation formation. (3) Exploration of a teaching-learning model for mathematics. $\circled1$ Mathematics learning is to be centered on learning by experience such as observation, operation, experiment and actual measurement. $\circled2$ Mathematical learning has better results in from inductional inference rather than deductional inference, and from operational inference rather than explanatory inference.

  • PDF

Design of Tunable Flat-top Bandpass Filter Based on Two Long-period Fiber Gratings and Core Mode Blocker

  • Bae, Jin-Ho;Bae, Jun-Kye;Lee, Sang-Bae
    • Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.202-206
    • /
    • 2011
  • We propose a tunable flat-top bandpass filter to pass light in a customized wavelength band by using long-period fiber gratings (LPFG) structure. The LPFG structure is composed of a core mode blocker in between two LPFGs. The bandpass spectrum of the proposed structure is obtained in overlapped wavelength band of two LPFGs operating on the same modes. To analyze the properties, we introduce a mathematical matrix model for the structure. We theoretically demonstrate flexibility of the flat-top bandpass filter with various bandwidths.

Simulation on Runoff of Rivers in Jeju Island Using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 제주도 하천의 유출량 모의)

  • Jung, Woo-Yul;Yang, Sung-Kee
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.18 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1045-1055
    • /
    • 2009
  • The discharge within the basin in Jeju Island was calculated by using SWAT model, which a Semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model to the important rivers. The basin of Chunmi river of the eastern region of Jeju Island, as the result of correcting as utilizing direct runoff data of 2 surveys, appeared the similar value to the existing basin average runoff rate as 22% of average direct runoff rate for the applied period. The basin of Oaedo river of the northern region showed $R^2$ of 0.93, RMSE of 14.92 and ME of 0.70 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data in the occurrence of 7 rainfalls. The basin of Ongpo river of the western region showed $R^2$ of 0.86, RMSE of 0.62 and ME of 0.56 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data except for the period of flood in $2002{\sim}2003$. Yeonoae river of the southern region showed $R^2$ of 0.85, RMSE of 0.99 and ME of 0.83 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data of 2003. As the result of calculating runoff for the long term about 4 basins of Jeju Island from the above results, SWAT model wholly appears the excellent results about the long-term daily runoff simulation.

Isolated Working Canine Heart Perfusion Apparatus for Evaluation of Myocardial Protection Methods (심장기능 평가를 위한 견 적출심장 관류장치의 설계)

  • 이종국
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.246-253
    • /
    • 1988
  • An in vitro model providing with a recirculating perfusion apparatus using an isolated canine heart and its autogenous blood, which was prepared for study of myocardial protection method. This apparatus was easily used by quick connect system and maintained well heart function for about 2 hours. The Langendorff perfusion was initiated for a 10 minute period by introducing perfusate at 37` into the aorta from aortic reservoir located 100 cm above the heart. The isolated perfused working canine heart model was a left heart preparation in which oxygenated perfusion medium [at 37K] entered the cannulated left atrium at a constant flow rate [900ml/ min] under 20 mmHg overflow system and was spontaneously ejected[no electrical pacing] via an cannula against a hydrostatic pressure of 80 cm H2O. During this working period, various indices of cardiac function were measured. The cardiac functions were stable for over 2 hours with perfusion of Krebs-Henseleit solution and autologous blood[1:1] mixture in volume and maintained heart rate ]]3-122/bpm peak systolic pressure 109-113 mmHg, cardiac output 900 ml / min and left atrial mean pressure 8-9 mmHg. In this model, the efficiency of myocardia] protection could be easily measured by means of functional, enzymatic, biochemical and ultrastructural assessment. And also, we believe this model to be a useful assessment screening model of recovery state after long duration of myocardial preservation of donor heart without difficult transplantation procedures.

  • PDF

Optimization of Cost and Downtime for Periodic PM Model Following the Expiration of Warranty

  • Jung, Ki-Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.587-596
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper develops the optimal periodic preventive maintenance policies following the expiration of warranty: renewing warranty and non-renewing warranty. After the warranty period is expired, the system undergoes the PM periodically and is minimally repaired at each failure between two successive PMs. Firstly, we determine the expected cost rate per unit time and the expected downtime per unit time for the periodic PM model. Then the overall value function suggested by Jiang and Ji(2002) is applied to obtain the optimal PM period and the optimal PM number. Finally, the numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

  • PDF

A Probabilistic Order Level System When Delay in Payment Is Permissible

  • Shah, Mita H.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 1993
  • The probabilistic order level inventory model is developed when a supplier allows some credit period T for settling the accounts for purchase quantity. The credit period T is known constant. Mathematical models are derived for both the cases i) T'.leq. T and ii) T'>T. Expressions are derived for average expected total cost of the system, the optimum cycle time and for obtaining optimum order level S = S$_{0}$ in each case. The exmaples are given to illustrate the model.

  • PDF