• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.9-19
• /
• 2009

This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
• /
• 2003.05a
• /
• pp.60-66
• /
• 2003

우리 생활 주변에 도로들이 일년 내내 파헤쳐 굴착되고 있어 교통도보 등 위험을 초래하고 특히 도심교통 유발요인이 되고 있음을 매체를 통해 접하게 된다. 이들 중 대부분은 배관공사 즉 가스배관, 수도배관, 하수도배관, 송유관 등 주요기반 공사에 해당된다. 역시 사고발생이 적지 않음을 알 수 있다.(중략)

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.10 no.2 s.21
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 2004

The marine traffic congestion has increased due to the expansion of vessel traffic volume in Korean coastal waterway these days. Heavy traffic could bring serious marine casualties which cause the loss of human lives, properties and marine pollution in coastal area. In this paper, the probability analysis of marine casualties in Korean coast. To achieve this aim, clears up the cause of accident and examines closely the mutual relations among marine casualties, weather condition, and marine traffic volume. These casualties are classified into several patterns or the point of view of ship's size, ship's type and ship's age and its characteristics of each pattern are described In detail.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2017.11a
• /
• pp.259-261
• /
• 2017

SRK-BB(Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-Based Behavior)는 주어진 사건을 처리할 때 인간이 행하는 행동을 체계적으로 식별하기 위한 하나의 이론이다. 이러한 SRK-BB에 대한 결과는 주어진 임무에 대한 '성공'과 '실패'로 나타낼 수 있다. 만약, 어느 사건에 대한 SRK-BB를 식별할 수 있고, 이에 대한 '성공/실패'의 결과를 알 수 있다면, SRK-BB를 이용하여 이들 사이에 연계된 확률적인 관계를 정립할 수 있다. 한편, 해양사고의 결과를 분석한 해양안전심판원의 재결서 또는 재결요약서에는 다양한 사고(즉, 실패한 사건)에 대해서 해기사가 어떠한 행동을 취했는지 상세하게 기록되어 있다. 이러한 해양안전심판원의 자료를 분석하면 실패한 해양사고에 대한 방대한 해기사의 SRK 분포를 확보할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 다양한 해양사고에 나타난 해기사들의 행동을 SRK-BB로 식별한 후 해기사들이 추후 야기할 수 있는 인적오류를 예측하기 위한 모델 구축에 있다. 인적오류 모델을 구축하기 위해서는 우선 해양사고에 포함된 SRK 분포 분석이 필요하고, 시스템적인 입출력 관계를 통해서 SRK에 의한 인적오류의 결과를 예측하기 위한 예측 모델이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 해기사의 인적오류에 의한 사고를 어떻게 SRK 분포를 이용하여 예측할 수 있는지에 대한 개념을 설명하고, 해양사고 데이터에서 획득한 SRK 분포의 의미와, SRK 분포를 이용하여 어떻게 해기사가 야기할 사고를 예측할 수 있는지에 대한 연구접근 방법을 소개하고자 한다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.33 no.6
• /
• pp.2437-2445
• /
• 2013

The objective of this study is finding the relationship between interstate highway accident frequencies and geometrics using Random Parameter Negative Binomial model. Even though it is impossible to take account of the same design criteria to the all segments or corridors on the road in reality, previous research estimated the fixed value of coefficients without considering each segment's characteristic. The drawback of the traditional negative binomial is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinct characters specific segment has. This results in under-estimation of the standard error which inflates the t-value and finally, affects the modeling estimation. Therefore, this study tries to find the relationship of accident frequencies with the heterogeneous geometrics using 9-years and 7-interstate highway data in Washington State area. 16-types of geometrics are used to derive the model which is compared with the traditional negative binomial Model to understand which Model is more suitable. In addition, by calculating marginal effect and elasticity, heterogeneous variables' effect to the accidents are estimated. Hopefully, this study will help to estiblish the future policy of geometrics.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
• /
• 2011.06a
• /
• pp.309-310
• /
• 2011

자동차를 사러 매장에 갔을 때 우리는 자동차의 색상에 따른 교통사고의 발생 확률과 무관하게 자동차의 성능이나 디자인과 또는 자동차의 가격이나 안정성 등을 최우선으로 꼽고 자동차를 선택한다. 본 논문에서는 자동차의 색인 파랑, 녹색, 흰색, 빨강, 검정, 황색의 차량을 대상으로 색상별로 사고 내역을 조사하여 사고가 발생할 확률이 가장 높은 색부터 가장 낮은 색까지를 차례로 제시한다. 사고가 많고 적음은 색에서 진출색과 후퇴색의 차이로서, 사고가 많이 나는 색이나 사고 나기 쉬운 색은 실제보다 멀리 있는 것처럼 보이는 후퇴색이고, 사고가 적은 색은 실제보다 더 가까이 있는 것처럼 보이는 진출색임을 알 수 있다.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
• /
• v.16 no.10
• /
• pp.995-999
• /
• 2010

Every year, traffic accidents and traffic congestion have been rapidly increasing, Although the roadway design and signal system have been improved to relieve traffic accidents, traffic casualties and property damage do not decrease. This paper develops a real-time traffic accident detection and analysis system (RTADAS): In the proposed system, we aim to precisely detect traffic accidents at different design and flow of intersections, However, because the data collected from intersections have uncertainty and complicated causal dependency between them, we construct probability-based networks for correct accident detection.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.559-570
• /
• 2011

The role of jurisprudence is examined in the early history of probability and statistics. From the mid-17th to the early 18th century, Christiaan Huygens and Jacob Bernoulli used mathematical expectation to solve the problems that originated from games of chance. We demonstrate that their concept of expectation as a fair price for participating in a game came from the legal concept of 'fair trade'. In addition, we consider that the probability that Bernoulli defined in his Ars Conjectandi originated from the legal concept of 'degree of certainty'. After considering some contributions of Laplace and Poisson, we examined the history of census and statistical survey in the early 19th century. Contrary to the history of the 17th and 18th century, statistics influenced society and law in the 19th century.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.145-154
• /
• 2013

HNS, including crude oil and products, shipments have increased. The risk analysis of HNS has assumed the importance, especially in maritime transportation area. There are various forms and kinds of HNS and the consequences of an accident are serious. In order to provide practical measures for preventing accidents, this study analyses the potential risks of HNS on maritime transportation accidents at domestic sea by using Event Tree Analysis. This study carries out risk assessment with F-N curve and risk matrix focusing on liquid cargo carriers (Oil and Products Tanker, Chemical Tanker, LPG/LNG Tanker, etc.). Explosion and sinking, suffocation indicate high consequence when on collision represent high probability. Improving human errors should be the main factor to mitigate risk on human lives.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.24 no.2 s.88
• /
• pp.139-145
• /
• 2006

This paper develops pedestrian fatality models capable of producing the probability of pedestrian fatality in collision between vehicles and pedestrians. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and binary logistic regression (BLR) ave employed in modeling pedestrian fatality pedestrian age, vehicle type, and collision speed obtained from reconstructing collected accidents are used as independent variables in fatality models. One of the nice features of this study is that an iterative sampling technique is used to construct various training and test datasets for the purpose of better performance comparison Statistical comparison considering the variation of model Performances is conducted. The results show that the PNN-based fatality model outperforms the BLR-based model. The models developed in this study that allow us to predict the pedestrian fatality would be useful tools for supporting the derivation of various safety Policies and technologies to enhance Pedestrian safety.