• Title/Summary/Keyword: 혼잡예측

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Emprical Tests of Braess Paradox (The Case of Namsan 2nd Tunnel Shutdown) (브라이스역설에 대한 실증적 검증 (남산2호터널 폐쇄사례를 중심으로))

  • 엄진기;황기연;김익기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 1999
  • The Purpose of this study is to test whether Braess Paradox (BP) can be revealed in a real world network. Fer the study, Namsan 2nd tunnel case is chosen, which was shut down for 3 years for repair works. The revelation of BP is determined by analyzing network-wise traffic impacts followed by the tunnel closure. The analysis is conducted using a network simulation model called SECOMM developed for the congestion management of the Seoul metropolitan area. Also, the existence of BP is further identified by a before-after traffic survey result of the major arterials nearby the Namsan 2nd tunnel. The model estimation expected that the closure of Namsan 2nd tunnel improve the network-wise average traffic speed from 21.95km/h to 22.21km/h when the travel demand in the study area and congestion Pricing scheme on Namsan 1st & 3rd tunnels remain unchanged. In addition, the real world monitoring results of the corridors surrounding Namsan 2nd tunnel show that the average speed increases from 29.53km/h to 30.37km/h after the closure. These findings clearly identify the BP Phenomenon is revealed in this case.

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An Active Queue Management Method Based on the Input Traffic Rate Prediction for Internet Congestion Avoidance (인터넷 혼잡 예방을 위한 입력율 예측 기반 동적 큐 관리 기법)

  • Park, Jae-Sung;Yoon, Hyun-Goo
    • 전자공학회논문지 IE
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose a new active queue management (AQM) scheme by utilizing the predictability of the Internet traffic. The proposed scheme predicts future traffic input rate by using the auto-regressive (AR) time series model and determines the future congestion level by comparing the predicted input rate with the service rate. If the congestion is expected, the packet drop probability is dynamically adjusted to avoid the anticipated congestion level. Unlike the previous AQM schemes which use the queue length variation as the congestion measure, the proposed scheme uses the variation of the traffic input rate as the congestion measure. By predicting the network congestion level, the proposed scheme can adapt more rapidly to the changing network condition and stabilize the average queue length and its variation even if the traffic input level varies widely. Through ns-2 simulation study in varying network environments, we compare the performance among RED, Adaptive RED (ARED), REM, Predicted AQM (PAQM) and the proposed scheme in terms of average queue length and packet drop rate, and show that the proposed scheme is more adaptive to the varying network conditions and has shorter response time.

On the efficient buffer management and early congestion detection at a Internet gateway based on the TCP flow control mechanism (TCP 흐름제어를 이용한 인터넷 게이트웨이에서의 예측기반 버퍼관리 및 조기혼잡예측기법)

  • Yeo Jae-Yung;Choe Jin-Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.1B
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a new early congestion detection and notification technique called QR-AQM. Unlike RED and it's variation, QR-AQM measures the total traffic rate from TCP sessions, predicts future network congestion, and determine the packet marking probability based on the measured traffic rate. By incorporating the traffic rate in the decision process of the packet marking probability, QR-AQM is capable of foreseeing future network congestion as well as terminating congestion resolution procedure in much more timely fashion than RED. As a result, simulation results show that QR-AQM maintains the buffer level within a fairly narrow range around a target buffer level that may be selected arbitrarily as a control parameter. Consequently, compared to RED and its variations, QR-AQM is expected to significantly reduce the jitter and delay variance of packets traveling through the buffer while achieving nearly identical link utilization.

A Performance Improvement Method with Considering of Congestion Prediction and Packet Loss on UDT Environment (UDT 환경에서 혼잡상황 예측 및 패킷손실을 고려한 성능향상 기법)

  • Park, Jong-Seon;Lee, Seung-Ah;Kim, Seung-Hae;Cho, Gi-Hwan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the bandwidth available to an end user has been dramatically increasing with the advancing of network technologies. This high-speed network naturally requires faster and/or stable data transmission techniques. The UDT(UDP based Data Transfer protocol) is a UDP based transport protocol, and shows more efficient throughput than TCP in the long RTT environment, with benefit of rate control for a SYN time. With a NAK event, however, it is difficult to expect an optimum performance due to the increase of fixed sendInterval and the flow control based on the previous RTT. This paper proposes a rate control method on following a NAK, by adjusting the sendInterval according to some degree of RTT period which calculated from a set of experimental results. In addition, it suggests an improved flow control method based on the TCP vegas, in order to predict the network congestion afterward. An experimental results show that the revised flow control method improves UDT's throughput about 20Mbps. With combining the rate control and flow control proposed, the UDT throughput can be improved up to 26Mbps in average.

Parameter Estimation and Validation of a Multinomial Logit Model for the Prediction of Mode Shift as a Result of TDM Schemes in Seoul (교통수요관리정책의 효과분석을 위한 다항로짓모형의 적용 - 서울시 사례 -)

  • 황기연;김익기;이우철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1998
  • 본 연구의 목적은 '96년말 서울시에서 실시한 가구통행조사를 이용하여 서울시 수단선택모형을 구축하고 그 예측결과를 남산 혼잡통행료 전후저사자료와 비교하여 보다 구체적으로 그 정확성을 검증한 뒤 향후 서울시 교통수요관리 방안의 시행에 따른 수단선택변화 예측의 기본 모형으로 활용하는데 있다. 5가지의 대안모형의 분석결과 통행비용변수(승용차의 경유 주차요금포함)와 총통행시간변수(OVTT와 IVTT의 합), 승용차, 지하철, 택시상수로 구성된 모형이 최적모형으로 분석되었다. 이모형에 의한 시간가치는 9,395원, 승용차의 비용탄력성은-0.6767로서 기존 연구결과의 범위 내에 속한 것으로 나타났다. 최적모형을 이용하여 승용차통행비용이 증가한 경우를 모사분석결과 남산1,3호 터널 혼잡통행료 징수효과와 유사하게 승용차 분담율이 13% 가까이 감소한 것으로 나타나서 모형의 현실적합성도 비교적 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 향후 본 연구에서 선정된 최적수단선택모형을 통행배정모형과 결합하여 다양한 교통수요관리 방안에 따른 효과를 예측하는데 활용하면 서울과 같은 대도시의 단기적 교통관리의 수준을 한 단계 높이는데 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

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A Network-Aware Congestion Control Scheme for Improving the Performance of C-TCP over HBDP Networks (HBDP 네트워크에서 C-TCP의 성능 향상을 위한 네트워크 적응적 혼잡제어 기법)

  • Oh, Junyeol;Yun, Dooyeol;Chung, Kwangsue
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.42 no.12
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    • pp.1600-1610
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    • 2015
  • While today's networks have been shown to exhibit HBDP (High Bandwidth Delay Product) characteristics, the legacy TCP increases the size of the congestion window slowly and decreases the size of the congestion window drastically such that it is not suitable for HBDP Networks. In order to solve this problem with the legacy TCP, many congestion control TCP mechanisms have been proposed. C-TCP (Compound-TCP) is a hybrid TCP which is a synergy of delay-based and loss-based approaches. C-TCP adapts the decreasing rate of the delay window without considering the congestion level, leading to degradation of performance. In this paper, we propose a new scheme to improve the performance of C-TCP. By controlling the increasing and decreasing rates according to the congestion level of the network, our proposed scheme can improve the bandwidth occupancy and fairness of C-TCP. Through performance evaluation, we show that our proposed scheme offers better performance in HBDP networks as compared to the legacy C-TCP.

Defining Rail Transit Level of Service and Analysis of it's Affection According to Rapid Transit Railway(KTX) (고속철도(KTX) 수요에 따른 dwelling time예측 모형개발)

  • Suh, Sun-Duck;Shin, Young-Ho;Shim, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Hwan-Su
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1612-1627
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    • 2008
  • Dwelling time is one of the factors that influence in rail. Current research in dwelling time has been focusing on railways, the state of the research in high-speed rail's dwelling time is not complete. Dwelling time is consisted of time to open door, time to get into and out of vehicle and time of the departure it takes after the passenger's door was closed, it was affected by various factors such as congestion's degree in vehicle, the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station. In order to analyze theses, we need data analysis such as the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station, congestion's degree in vehicle, but the congestion's degree and passenger's distribution chart in vehicle is excluded in this research due to difficulty of gathering data, and thus we will develop forecasting models through high-speed rail's demand most affected by the dwelling time.

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An Approach Using LSTM Model to Forecasting Customer Congestion Based on Indoor Human Tracking (실내 사람 위치 추적 기반 LSTM 모델을 이용한 고객 혼잡 예측 연구)

  • Hee-ju Chae;Kyeong-heon Kwak;Da-yeon Lee;Eunkyung Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2023
  • In this detailed and comprehensive study, our primary focus has been placed on accurately gauging the number of visitors and their real-time locations in commercial spaces. Particularly, in a real cafe, using security cameras, we have developed a system that can offer live updates on available seating and predict future congestion levels. By employing YOLO, a real-time object detection and tracking algorithm, the number of visitors and their respective locations in real-time are also monitored. This information is then used to update a cafe's indoor map, thereby enabling users to easily identify available seating. Moreover, we developed a model that predicts the congestion of a cafe in real time. The sophisticated model, designed to learn visitor count and movement patterns over diverse time intervals, is based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to address the vanishing gradient problem and Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq) for processing data with temporal relationships. This innovative system has the potential to significantly improve cafe management efficiency and customer satisfaction by delivering reliable predictions of cafe congestion to all users. Our groundbreaking research not only demonstrates the effectiveness and utility of indoor location tracking technology implemented through security cameras but also proposes potential applications in other commercial spaces.

A New RED Algorithm Adapting Automatically in Various Network Conditions (다양한 네트워크 환경에 자동적으로 적응하는 RED 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Dong-Choon
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.461-467
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    • 2014
  • Active queue management (AQM) algorithms run on routers and detect incipient congestion by typically monitoring the instantaneous or average queue size. When the average queue size exceeds a certain threshold, AQM algorithms infer congestion on the link and notify the end systems to back off by proactively dropping some of the packets arriving at a router or marking the packets to reduce transmission rate at the sender. Among the existing AQM algorithms, random early detection (RED) is well known as the representative queue-based management scheme by randomizing packet dropping. To reduce the number of timeouts in TCP and queuing delay, maintain high link utilization, and remove bursty traffic biases, the RED considers an average queue size as a degree of congestions. However, RED do not well in the specified networks conditions due to the fixed parameters($P_{max}$ and $TH_{min}$) of RED. This paper addresses a extended RED to be adapted in various networks conditions. By sensing network state, $P_{max}$ and $TH_{min}$ can be automatically changed to proper value and then RED do well in various networks conditions.

A Study on Predictive Traffic Information Using Cloud Route Search (클라우드 경로탐색을 이용한 미래 교통정보 예측 방법)

  • Jun Hyun, Kim;Kee Wook, Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2015
  • Recent navigation systems provide quick guide services, based on processing real-time traffic information and past traffic information by applying predictable pattern for traffic information. However, the current pattern for traffic information predicts traffic information by processing past information that it presents an inaccuracy problem in particular circumstances(accidents and weather). So, this study presented a more precise predictive traffic information system than historical traffic data first by analyzing route search data which the drivers ask in real time for the quickest way then by grasping traffic congestion levels of the route in which future drivers are supposed to locate. First results of this study, the congested route from Yang Jae to Mapo, the analysis result shows that the accuracy of the weighted value of speed of existing commonly congested road registered an error rate of 3km/h to 18km/h, however, after applying the real predictive traffic information of this study the error rate registered only 1km/h to 5km/h. Second, in terms of quality of route as compared to the existing route which allowed for an earlier arrival to the destination up to a maximum of 9 minutes and an average of up to 3 minutes that the reliability of predictable results has been secured. Third, new method allows for the prediction of congested levels and deduces results of route searches that avoid possibly congested routes and to reflect accurate real-time data in comparison with existing route searches. Therefore, this study enabled not only the predictable gathering of information regarding traffic density through route searches, but it also made real-time quick route searches based on this mechanism that convinced that this new method will contribute to diffusing future traffic flow.