• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.651-668
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• 2010

Various estimators of two risk measures of a specific financial portfolio, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, are compared for each case of 1-day and 10-day horizons. We use the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data of 20-year period including the year 2008 of the global financial crisis. Indexes of five foreign stock markets are also used for the empirical comparison study. The estimator considering both the heavy tail of loss distribution and the conditional heteroscedasticity of time series is of main concern, while other standard and new estimators are considered too. We investigate which estimator is best for the Korean stock market and which one shows the best overall performance.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.133-141
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• 2021

Governments of each country are actively implementing fiscal expansion policies to recover the real economy after Corona 19. In Korea, the stock market and housing market are greatly affected as liquidity in the market increases due to the implementation of disaster subsidies and welfare policies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between stock market and housing market trends and liquidity. Data were collected by the Bank of Korea and Kookmin Bank. The analysis period is from January 2000 to December 2020, and monthly data are used. For empirical analysis, the rate of change from the same month of the previous year was calculated for each variable, and numerical analysis, index analysis, and model analysis were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the stock index showed a positive(+) relationship with the house price, while a negative(-) relationship with M2. Previous studies have suggested that, in general, an increase in liquidity affects the stock market and the housing market, and inflation also rises. In this study, it was found that the stock market and the housing market had an effect on each other. However, it was investigated that liquidity showed an inverse relationship with the stock market and had no relationship with the housing market. Through this, this study estimated that there is a time difference in the relationship between liquidity and the stock market & housing market.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.225-231
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• 2010

Transaction value of business-to-business(B2B) is composed of various factors for groups and time series. In this paper, we use the panel data for finding various variables and using this we analyse the factors that is major influence to transaction value of business-to-business. For analysis we looked at transaction value of business-to-business of 7 groups such as manufacturing industry, electric, gas and piped water industry, construction industry, retail & wholesale trade, traffic industry, publish, image; broad-casting & telecommunication and information service industry, etc. In our analysis we looked at the transaction value of business-to-business during the period from 2005.01 to 2009.12. We examined the data in relation to the transaction value of cyber shopping mall, company bond, composite stock price index, transaction value of credit card, loaned rate of interest in deposit bank, rate of exchange looking at the factors which determine the transaction value of business-to-business, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the transaction value of cyber shopping mall, composite stock price index and loaned rate of interest in deposit bank, rate of exchange. The company bond is negative relationship, transaction value of credit card is positive relationship and they are not significant variables in terms of the transaction value of business-to-business.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.393-405
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• 2011

Three different models have been consecutively employed with the U.S. yield curve and the Korean composite stock price index, firstly to see the coupling between the economies of the U.S. and Korea, secondly to find out the time consumed completing the coupling, and lastly to figure out the impact of the recent U.S. financial crisis on this coupling. This study has, first of all, produced an empirical research outcome which proved the existence of coupling between two countries' economies. The direction of this coupling was consistent with the general expectation that when the yield spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note and the U.S. 3-month Treasury Bill increased which often occurred with better prospects of U.S. economy, the asset price of emerging economies including Korea also rose reflecting the accompanying change in investment atmosphere in favor of risk. It has also found out that the degree of the coupling was maximized with a lag of one week. And finally the recent US financial crisis has been revealed to reduce the degree of the coupling by as much as half in a regression model with a dummy variable.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.45-65
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• 2000

본 논문은 시장상황별 주식시장의 제 현상이 상이하다는 점을 고려하여 한국주식시장에서 시장 상승기(bull market)와 시장 하락기(bear market)에 대한 주식수익률 분포의 특성을 파악하고, 음의 수익률충격에 대한 비대칭적 변동성과 시장이상현상들 중 하나인 요일효과를 시장 상황별로 실증분석하였다. 본 논문에 사용된 자료는 1990년 1월 3일부터 1997년 3월 31일 동안의 한국종합주가지수 및 자본금 규모별로 대형주지수, 중형주지수, 소형주지수의 명목수익률로 전환된 일별자료이다. 시장상황별 분석을 위하여 시장 상승기와 하락기에 따라 3기의 하위기간으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 분석에 사용된 모형은 EGARCH모형과 수정된 GARCH모형인 GJR모형이다. 분석결과 시장하락기인 하부기간1과 하부기간3에서 음의 수익률충격에 대한 비대칭적 변동성이 강하게 나타나지만 시장상승기인 2기간에는 비대칭적 변동성반응이 나타나지 않았다. 이는 주식시장이 상승국면일 때보다는 하락국면일 때 나쁜 뉴스에 대해 훨씬 민감하게 반응하는 결과이다. 또한 한국주식시장에서 월요일의 수익률이 시장하락기에 음의 수익률을 보이지만 통계적 유의성은 없었으며, 반면에 시장이 상승기인 하부기간2에서는 월요일과 수요일에 통계적 유의성이 매우 큰 양의 값을 나타냈다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2006

In this paper, we analyse the volatilities in financial data such as stock prices and exchange rates in term of a class of nonlinear time series models. We compare the performance of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscadastic(GARCH) , Integrated GARCH(IGARCH), Exponential GARCH(EGARCH) models by KOSPI (Korean stock Prices Index) data. The estimation for the parameters in the models was carried out by the ML methods.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.185-205
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• 1993

Shiller에 의하여 개발된 분산한계검증모형(分散限界檢證模型)은 간결하고 명쾌한 모형유도(模型誘導)와 강력한 검증결과(檢證結果)에 의해 주목받아 왔으나 비현실적(非現實的)인 가정(假定)들을 통한 모형설계와 검증통계량(檢證統計量)의 통계적 오류로 검증결과의 신뢰성이 의문시되어 왔다. 이러한 문제점을 제거하기 위한 Mankiw-Romer-Shapiro(MRS)모형(模型) 역시 임의변수(任意變數)의 도입으로 인한 검증력(檢證力) 저하(低下)와 고정기대수익율가정(固定期待收益率假定)의 채택으로 결합가설검증(結合假說檢證) 형태를 취하게 되는 문제점을 드러냈다. 본고(本稿)는 MRS모형(模型)의 문제점을 제거하기 위하여 먼저 Lucas의 균형자산가격모형(均衡資産價格模型)을 이용하여 고정기대수익율가정(固定期待收益率假定)을 완화하였고, 이에 의하여 구해진 변수들을 사용하여 합리적(合理的) 기대이론(期待理論)의 일반관계식(一般關係式)으로부터 새로운 검증모형(檢證模型)을 유도하였다. 1982~92년까지의 종합주가지수(綜合株價指數)와 대응하는 배당액(配當額)의 연도별(年度別) 시계열자료(時系列資料)를 가지고 검증실험을 행하여 본 결과 한국(韓國) 주식시장(株式市場)에서 효율적 시장가설은 기각되었고, 이를 통하여 관련정보(關聯情報)가 시장가격(市場價格)에 제대로 반영되지 않고 있으며, 정보(情報)의 비대칭성(非對稱性)으로 인하여 주식시장은 금융자원(金融資源)의 중개기능(仲介機能)을 효율적으로 수행하지 못하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 한국 주식시장의 효율성을 제고하기 위하여 먼저 시장의 비효율성을 야기하는 요인(要因)들에 대한 분석(分析)과 이 분석을 통한 효율성(效率性) 장애요인(障碍要因)을 제거하는 것이 주식시장에 대한 정부정책(政府政策)의 우선순위(優先順位)가 되어야 할 것이다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.374-384
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• 2014

In this paper, characteristics of transactions by investors were examined based on the relationship between South Korea's stock market trends and the amount of net purchasing by investors. The study period is from January of 2004 to December of 2011, a total 1,991 days on 96 months. Data used for correlation and regression analysis include the value of the KOSPI index at the end of each month, the monthly net purchase amount of each of the groups, as well the daily volume, the daily price. In this study, the long-term phase of the market divided by refining. and each of the investment position of invest group was investigated. As a result, foreign investors are a net selling position when market was rising phase of the tertiary. And private investors were a net short positions when the market was decline phase of the tertiary. Regardless of the flow changes, the private investors had opposite position to the flow of the mark, also they had opposite position to the position of the foreign investors.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.81-94
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• 2022

Real estate and artworks were considered challenging investment targets for individual investors because of their relatively high average transaction price despite their long investment history. Recently, the so-called fractional investment, generally known as investing in a share of the ownership right for real-life assets, etc., and most investors perceive that they actually own a piece (fraction) of the ownership right through their investments, is gaining popularity. Founded in 2016, Musicow started the first service that allows users to invest in copyright fees related to music distribution. Using the LSTM algorithm, one of the deep learning algorithms, this research predict the price of right to participate in copyright fees traded in Musicow. In addition to variables related to claims such as transfer price, transaction volume of claims, and copyright fees, comprehensive indicators indicating the market conditions for music copyright fees participation, exchange rates reflecting economic conditions, KTB interest rates, and Korea Composite Stock Index were also used as variables. As a result, it was confirmed that the LSTM algorithm accurately predicts the transaction price even in the case of fractional investment which has a relatively low transaction volume.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.91-91
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• 2017

전 세계적으로 인공습지는 도시화, 기후변화 및 생활수준 향상으로 인한 홍수와 가뭄, 하천생태계 변화, 수질오염과 같은 환경문제의 해결방안으로 제시되고 있다. 이에 따라 국내에서도 여러 목적과 형태의 인공습지가 조성되고 있다. 인공습지의 경우 특정 기능을 목적으로 하여 조성하더라도 인공적 생태계가 조성되므로 복합적 기능을 갖게 된다. 하지만 현재까지의 인공습지 조성 효과에 관한 연구는 한가지 기능에만 초점을 맞추어서 실제 인공습지 조성의 가치가 저평가되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 하천변 인공습지 조성에 따른 여러 효과 중 가장 주가 되는 홍수저감 및 수질개선 기능에 대한 효과를 분석하고 이에 따른 편익을 산정하였다. 먼저 인공습지의 적용 대상 유역을 선정하고 유역 내에 입지를 결정하여 이에 맞는 인공습지를 설계 및 적용하였다. 인공습지 조성에 따른 홍수저감 효과 및 수질개선효과를 각각 분석하였다. 분석 결과에 대해 MD-FDA를 통해 홍수피해액을 산정하였고 대체비용법을 통하여 동일한 수질개선 효과를 갖는 하수처리시설의 하수처리비 및 운영관리비에 해당하는 수질개선 편익을 산정하였다. 본 연구를 통해 인공습지의 홍수저감 효과뿐만 아니라 수질개선 효과를 확인하였으며 정량적인 분석방법을 통해 두 가지 기능에 대한 효과를 분석하여 보았다. 또한 산정된 홍수저감 및 수질개선 효과를 경제적 가치로 환산하여 보다 객관적인 지표로 나타내었다. 본 인공습지 조성에 따른 종합적 편익 산정 연구 결과는 다목적의 인공습지를 적재적소에 적용하는데 기여할 것이다. 추후 생태적 기능, 레크레이션 기능 등에 따른 기타 편익 산정 방법론 조사를 통해 각 기능의 편익을 추가한다면 인공습지 조성에 따른 편익을 종합적으로 고려할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 또한 인공습지 조성의 소요사업비 및 유지관리비를 산정하여 인공습지 조성에 대한 경제성분석을 한다면, 실제 인공습지 조성 사업 시 사업의 타당성을 평가하는 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.