• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균분산모형

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Investigation of Impacts of Truck Lane Restrictions on Multilane Highways Using Micro Traffic Simulation (미시적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 화물차 차로이용제한 영향분석)

  • Yang, Choong-Heon;Son, Young-Tae;Kwon, Yong-Suk
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2007
  • This study was performed to investigate impacts of truck lane restrictions on multilane highways on traffic flow variables such as average speed, the frequency of lane changes, and change in traffic volume and also to verify whether or not different lane restriction scenarios were proper. Two types of hypothetical highway networks and OD demands were developed for traffic simulation models in order to conduct the experimental study. Three types of scenarios were also developed according to the number of restricted lanes for trucks. The PARAMICS microscopic traffic simulation software package was used as the primary analytical tool. Statistical analysis was conducted with simulation outputs. Results showed that truck lane restrictions may lead to positive impacts on traffic flow on multilane highways. In addition, this study demonstrated that the number of restricted lanes can be very an important factor to lead successful implementation of truck lane restrictions.

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The Convergence relation of Critical Thinking Disposition and Problem-Solving Ability of Dental Hygiene Students (치위생과 학생들의 비판적 사고 성향과 문제해결능력과의 융합적 관련성)

  • Jun, Mee-Jin;Kim, Jeong -Sun
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • The study was to investigation the correlation between critical thinking and problem-solving abilities of 320 dental hygiene students enrolled in H university, J region from June 1 to August 30, 2018. The data was analyzed by ANOVA, pearson's correlation and multiple regression using SPSS 18.0 program. The correlation between critical score 3.36 while problem solving ability score 3.41. The correlation between critical thinking problem-solving abilities of the subjects was statistically significant. The significant variables included problem-solving(${\beta}=0.107$)(p<0.05), academic performance(${\beta}=-0.081$)(p<0.05) with an explanatory power of 52.2%. It is necessary to develop a curriculum and learning method in improvement for critical thinking and problem-solving abilities change in educational environment of dental hygiene students.

BMDL of blood lead for ADHD based on two longitudinal data sets (주의력 결핍 과잉 행동장애를 종점으로 하는 혈중 납의 벤치마크 용량 하한 도출: 두 동집단 자료의 병합)

  • Kim, Si Yeon;Ha, Mina;Kwon, Hojang;Kim, Byung Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 2018
  • The ministry of Environment of Korea initiated two follow-up surveys in 2005 and 2006 to investigate environmental effect on children's health. These two cohorts, referred to as the 2005 Cohort and 2006 Cohort, were followed up three times every two years. This data set was referred to as the Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) data set. This paper reproduces the existing research results of Kim et al. (Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 25, 987-998, 2014) and Lee et al. (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 1295-1310, 2016) and derive a benchmark dose lower limit (BMDL) for blood lead level for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) after pooling two cohort data sets. The different ADHD rating scales were unified by applying the conversion formula proposed by Lee et al. (2016). The random effect model and AR(1) model were built to reflect the longitudinal characteristics and regression to the mean phenomenon. Based on these models the BMDLs for blood lead levels were derived using the BMDL formula and the simulation. We obtained a hight level of BMDLs when we pooled two independent cohort data sets.

Analysis of the Applicability of Parameter Estimation Methods for a Stochastic Rainfall Model (추계학적 강우모형 매개변수 추정기법의 적합성 분석)

  • Cho, HyunGon;Kim, GwangSeob;Yi, JaeEung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1105-1116
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    • 2014
  • A stochastic rainfall model, NSRPM (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model), is able to reflect the cluster characteristics of rainfall events which is unable in the RPM (Rectangular Pulse Model). Therefore NSRPM has advantage in the hydrological applications. The NSRPM consists of five model parameters and the parameters are estimated using optimization techniques such as DFP (Davidon-Fletcher-Powell) method and genetic algorithm. However the DFP method is very sensitive in initial values and is easily converge to local minimum. Also genetic algorithm has disadvantage of long computation time. Nelder-Mead method has several advantages of short computation time and no need of a proper initial value. In this study, the applicability of parameter estimation methods was evaluated using rainfall data of 59 national rainfall networks from 1973-2011. Overall results demonstrated that accuracy in parameter estimation is in the order of Nelder-Mead method, genetic algorithm, and DFP method.

A Statistical Fitness Test of Newell's 3-detector Simplification Method for Unexpected Incident Detection in the Expressway Traffic Flow (고속도로 돌발상황 검지를 위한 삼연속검지기 단순화 해법의 통계적 적합성 검정)

  • OH, Chang-Seok;RHO, Jeong Hyun;PARK, Young Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.146-157
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to actualize a statistical model of the 3-detector simplification model, which was proposed to detect outbreak situations by Daganzo in 1997 and to verify the statistical appropriacy thereof. This study presents the calculation process of the 3-detector simplification model and realizes the process using a statistics program. Firstly, the model was applied using data on detector of the main highways on which there is no entrances or exits. Moreover, in order to statistically verify the 3-detector simplification model, accumulative traffics for 30 seconds period, which reflects the dynamic changes of traffics due to shock wave, were estimated for outbreak traffics and steady flow, and the error of acquired data was statistically compared with that of the actual accumulative traffics. As a result, the error ratio between steady and incident cumulative flows has reached its maximum after 2-3 hours from an accident. Moreover, the incident traffic flows by accidents and the stade flows are heterogeneous in terms of their dispersion and means.

Riparian Connectivity Assessment Using Species Distribution Model of Fish Assembly (어류군집의 종분포모형을 이용한 수변지역 연결성 평가)

  • Jeong, Seung Gyu;Lee, Dong Kun;Ryu, Ji Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2015
  • River corridors facilitate dispersal and movement and prevent local extinction of species. As a result of stream restoration projects, which include installation of waterfront and flood control structures, the number of animals, which rely on river corridor, is decreasing. For the study, factors affecting fish assembly were extracted by a species distribution model with the fish data collected from the Seom River in Hoengseong County and City of Wonju, Ganwon Province, Korea between March to October 2013. The riparian connectivity was assessed using species richness and rarity. According to result of the field survey, there were 38 species and 7,061 individuals for fish. The analysis suggests the following. Firstly, factors affecting fish richness in species distribution model results are shown to be velocity, riffle, riparian width, and water width. The accuracy of the model proves to be suitable with the correlation coefficient of 0.83 and MAPE of 19.2%. Secondly, the low rarity area is shown to be straight streams in Jeon river near to Hongseong County and the high rarity area to be streams with large width, existing alluvial area at channel junction between Jeon river and Seom river. Thirdly, according to connectivity results, areas where weirs are installed or riparian buffer area is removed showed low connectivity. The areas where farmland near riparian and forest areas showed high connectivity. The results of this study can be utilized to improve current facilities and enhance connectivity as a restoration guide.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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A Study on Signal Control Algorithms using Internal Metering for an Oversaturated Network (내부 미터링을 이용한 과포화 네트워크 신호제어 알고리즘 연구)

  • Song, Myeong-Gyun;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2007
  • The aim of this research is to develop a signal control algorithm using internal metering to minimize total delay that vehicles go through, in case a network is oversaturated. To calculate total delay on the network, the authors first detect vehicles' arrivals and departures in the network through the detecting system, and chase the vehicles' flow in the links with a platoon dispersion model. Following these, the authors calculate the queue length in all the inks of the network through the chase of vehicles, deduce the stopped time delay, and finally convert the stopped time delay to the approach delay with a time-space diagram. Based on this calculated delay, an algorithm that calculates the level of the internal metering necessary to minimize the deduced approach delay is suggested. To verify effectiveness of this suggested algorithm, the authors also conduct simulation with the micro-simulator VISSIM. The result of the simulation shows that the average delay per vehicle is 82.3 sec/veh and this delay is lower than COSMOS (89.9sec/veh) and TOD (99.1sec/veh). It is concluded that this new signal control algorithm suggested in this paper is more effective in controlling an oversaturated network.

Parameter Estimates for Genetic Effects on Growth Traits of Korean Native Goats (한국재래산양의 발육형질에 대한 유전능력 평가)

  • Kim, Y.K.;Lee, J.W.;Choi, S.H.;Son, S.G.;Na, G.J.;Moon, S.J.;Kim, J.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2002
  • Data were collected from 1996 through 2000 on Korean Native Goats by the National Livestock Research Institute of Korea were used to estimate genetic parameters for birth, 3 month, and 6 month body weights. Estimates were obtained with MTDFREML. Model included animal and maternal genetic and residual effects. The model included sex, birth year-season, and feeding type as fixed factors. Average body weights and standard deviation were 1.78${\pm}$0.32 at birth of age, 7.99${\pm}$2.66 at 3 month of age, and 12.08${\pm}$3.20 kg at 6 month of age, respectively. Average body measurements were 36.46cm for withers height, 38.06cm for body length, and 45.56cm for heart girth at 3 month of age, and were 40.27cm for withers height, 42.01cm for body length, and 51.07cm for heart girth at 6 month of age, respectively. Estimates of heritability were 0.66 for birth weight, 0.34 for 3 month body weight, and 0.27 for 6 month body weight, respectively. Maternal effects would be important for birth and 3 month body weights and may not be needed in a model for 6 month body weight.

A Model-Fitting Approach of External Force on Electric Pole Using Generalized Additive Model (일반화 가법 모형을 이용한 전주 외력 모델링)

  • Park, Chul Young;Shin, Chang Sun;Park, Myung Hye;Lee, Seung Bae;Park, Jang Woo
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.6 no.11
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    • pp.445-452
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    • 2017
  • Electric pole is a supporting beam used for power transmission/distribution which accelerometer are used for measuring a external force. The meteorological condition has various effects on the external forces of electric pole. One of them is the elasticity change of the aerial wire. It is very important to perform modelling. The acceleration sensor is converted into a pitch and a roll angle. The meteorological condition has a high correlation between variables, and selecting significant explanatory variables for modeling may result in the problem of over-fitting. We constructed high deviance explained model considering multicollinearity using the Generalized Additive Model which is one of the machine learning methods. As a result of the Variation Inflation Factor Test, we selected and fitted the significant variable as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, dewpoint, hours of daylight and cloud cover. It was noted that the Hours of daylight, cloud cover and air pressure has high explained value in explonatory variable. The average coefficient of determination (R-Squared) of the Generalized Additive Model was 0.69. The constructed model can help to predict the influence on the external forces of electric pole, and contribute to the purpose of securing safety on utility pole.