• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균분산모형

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The Determinants of Housing Affordability (주거비 과부담 결정요인)

  • Lim, Se Hee
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.68 no.3
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    • pp.29-50
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the determinants of housing affordability using the 2014 fact-finding survey of housing. This study identified the effects of characters of districts as well as the effects of characters of family and housing, taking advantage of HGLM(Hierarchical General Linear Model). The results of this study showed that male householder, higher education level, the monthly housing, higher satisfaction of environment of housing are the factors that increased the odds of living at unaffordable housing, but higher income, public transfer recipient, living at sub-standard housing, the Jensei housing are the factors that decreased the odds of living at unaffordable housing. And the higher housing price, the higher rent of the districts increased significantly the odds of living at unaffordable housing, but the higher rate of public housing of the districts decreased the odds of living at unaffordable housing. This study provides the basis that the price of housing and rent should be controled and the policy of public housing should be expanded for housing welfare.

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A statistical analysis of the fat mass experimental data using random coefficient model (변량계수모형을 이용한 체지방 실험자료에 관한 통계적 분석)

  • Jo, Jin-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2011
  • Thirty six female students participated in the experiment of the fat mass weight loss. they kept diary for foods they ate every day, took a picture of the foods, transmitted the picture to the experimenter by the camera phone, and consulted him about fat mass loss once a week for 8 weeks period. Fat mass weight and its related factors of the students had been measured repeatedly every week during 8 weeks, The repeated measurement data were used for applying various random coefficient models. And hence optimal random coefficient model was selected. From the optimal model, the baseline, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and time of the fixed factors were very significant. The fixed quadratic time effect existed. The variance components corresponding to the subject effect, linear time effect of the random coefficients were all positive. Thus random coefficients up to the linear terms were considered as the optimal model. The treatment effect reduced the weight loss to an average of 2.1kg at the end of the period.

Optimal portfolio and VaR of KOSPI200 using One-factor model (원-팩터 모형을 이용한 KOSPI200지수 구성종목의 최적 포트폴리오 구성 및 VaR 측정)

  • Ko, Kwang Yee;Son, Young Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.323-334
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    • 2015
  • he current VaR model based on the J.P. Morgan's RiskMetrics structurally can not reflect the future economic situation. In this study, we propose a One-factor model resulting from the Wiener stochastic process decomposed into a systematic risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor. Therefore, we are able to perform a preemptive risk management by means of reflecting the predicted common risk factors in the model. Stocks in the portfolio are satisfied with the independence to each other because the common factors are fixed by the predicted value. Therefore, we can easily determine the investment in each stock to minimize the variance of the portfolio. In addition, the portfolio VaR is decomposed into the sum of the individual VaR. So we can effectively implement the constitution of the portfolio to meet the target maximum losses.

A Study on the Koryoin Larchiveum Space Construction Model (고려인 라키비움 공간구축 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hyunji Park;Wookwon Chang
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.183-204
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to present a construction model of Koryoin Larchiveum that considers the space and function of larchiveum, centering on the Koryoin Historical and Cultural Center. To this end, a survey was conducted targeting librarians, archivists, and curators, and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was conducted to find out the average difference between space and work requirements by institution. In addition, based on the survey, in-depth interviews were conducted with secondary experts (directors, representatives, Koryoin experts, etc.) on spatial components. As a result, first, spatial and functional elements set mainly for functions necessary for Koryoin Larchiveum were derived. Spatial elements include storage, reading rooms, and resting areas for libraries, archives storage rooms and exhibition rooms for archives, and storage and exhibition rooms for cultural centers. Functions (work) were represented by 4 elements: library 3, archives 5, and cultural center. Second, after reviewing the interview, the Koryoin Larchiveum construction model was modified and supplemented. As for the spatial composition, the installation space, work contents, and manpower in charge were presented from the first basement floor to the third floor above the ground.

Correlations Between the Physical Properties and Compression Index of KwangYang Clay (광양점토의 물리적 특성과 압축지수의 상관성)

  • Bae, Wooseok;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2009
  • The correlation equation empirically proposed to obtain compression indexes has been proposed to conveniently obtain the value using the soil parameter that can be obtained through simple tests when the number of time of consolidation testing is low or the distribution is large but most of the analyzed regions are limited to certain regions abroad or in the country and multiple data were integrated for use in many cases, thus it is not very reasonable to apply it. Therefore, to establish a new design method considering the uncertainty of the ground, it was selected the Kwangyang port area of which the data have been collected recently thus are relatively more reliable as the subject region of the study in order to maximally reduce the uncertainty of test data. After performing the verification of the normality of the consolidation test data obtained from the selected region and the transformation of variables, a prediction formula was proposed through the regression model with the transformed variables and the proposed regression model with transformed variables was compared with existing empirical equations to verify the suitability of the proposed model formula. After analyzing, it was confirmed that the coefficient of determination was increased after the Box-Cox variable transformation, thus the explanatory power was being enhanced and through the root-mean-square-error method, it was confirmed that the proposed model formula showed the most closed value to the test value.

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Building a Model to Estimate Pedestrians' Critical Lags on Crosswalks (횡단보도에서의 보행자의 임계간격추정 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Kyung Whan;Kim, Daehyon;Lee, Ik Su;Lee, Deok Whan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1D
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2009
  • The critical lag of crosswalk pedestrians is an important parameter in analyzing traffic operation at unsignalized crosswalks, however there is few research in this field in Korea. The purpose of this study is to develop a model to estimate the critical lag. Among the elements which influence the critical lag, the age of pedestrians and the length of crosswalks, which have fuzzy characteristics, and the each lag which is rejected or accepted are collected on crosswalks of which lengths range from 3.5 m to 10.5 m. The values of the critical lag range from 2.56 sec. to 5.56 sec. The age and the length are divided to the 3 fuzzy variables each, and the critical lag of each case is estimated according to Raff's technique, so a total of 9 fuzzy rules are established. Based on the rules, an ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) model to estimate the critical lag is built. The predictability of the model is evaluated comparing the observed with the estimated critical lags by the model. Statistics of $R^2$, MAE, MSE are 0.96, 0.097, 0.015 respectively. Therefore, the model is evaluated to explain the result well. During this study, it is found that the critical lag increases rapidly over the pedestrian's age of 40 years.

An Empirical Study on the Risk Diversification Effect of REITs (리츠의 투자위험 분산화 효과에 대한 실증연구)

  • Cho, Kyu-Su;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2013
  • Following the U.S sub-prime mortgage crisis and a slump in properties market, the probability is rising that housing investment would not yield high profit as it used to do until early 2000s. For this reason, the nature of properties market is undergoing a change from a source of lucrative investment to a source of a relatively low but stable profit, such as profit-oriented real estate. This trend is likely to promote REITs market, which is a leading product for indirect investment. Until now, the REITs market has been growing slowly compared to a general housing market or financial markets. However, as the importance of risk management based on portfolio theories increases, stable profit generation of REITs can be effective in risk management. This study conducts an empirical analysis on how investment risks can be diversified by including REITs-a source of relatively stable profit in the equity market-in investment portfolio. The analysis results showed that, similar to food and beverage stocks of highly defensive nature, REITs has a relatively weak correlation with KOSPI that reflects the overall market performance. It also showed very low standard deviation in case of minimum variance portfolio. This suggests that including REITs in investment portfolio can be as effective as including food and beverage stocks for risk diversification. Due to uncertainties, investment always accompanies risks, and balancing potential profits and risks is essential.

A Comparative Study on the Goodness of Fit in Spatial Econometric Models Using Housing Transaction Prices of Busan, Korea (부산시 실거래 주택매매 가격을 이용한 공간계량모형의 적합도 비교연구)

  • Chung, Kyoun-Sup;Kim, Sung-Woo;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2012
  • The OLS(ordinary least squares) method is widely used in hedonic housing models. One of the assumptions of the OLS is an independent and uniform distribution of the disturbance term. This assumption can be violated when the spatial autocorrelation exists, which in turn leads to undesirable estimate results. An alterative to this, spatial econometric models have been introduced in housing price studies. This paper describes the comparisons between OLS and spatial econometric models using housing transaction prices of Busan, Korea. Owing to the approaches reflecting spatial autocorrelation, the spatial econometric models showed some superiority to the traditional OLS in terms of log likelihood and sigma square(${\sigma}^2$). Among the spatial models, the SAR(Spatial Autoregressive Models) seemed more appropriate than the SAC(General Spatial Models) and the SEM(Spatial Errors Models) for Busan housing markets. We can make sure the spatial effects on housing prices, and the reconstruction plans have strong impacts on the transaction prices. Selecting a suitable spatial model will play an important role in the housing policy of the government.

Development of Stochastic Downscaling Method for Rainfall Data Using GCM (GCM Ensemble을 활용한 추계학적 강우자료 상세화 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Yoon, Sun-Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.9
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    • pp.825-838
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    • 2014
  • The stationary Markov chain model has been widely used as a daily rainfall simulation model. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical characteristics do not change over time and do not have any trends. In other words, the stationary Markov chain model for daily rainfall simulation essentially can not incorporate any changes in mean or variance into the model. Here we develop a Non-stationary hidden Markov chain model (NHMM) based stochastic downscaling scheme for simulating the daily rainfall sequences, using general circulation models (GCMs) as inputs. It has been acknowledged that GCMs perform well with respect to annual and seasonal variation at large spatial scale and they stand as one of the primary sources for obtaining forecasts. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at three stations in Nakdong watershed. The model showed a better performance in reproducing most of the statistics associated with daily and seasonal rainfall. In particular, the proposed model provided a significant improvement in reproducing the extremes. It was confirmed that the proposed model could be used as a downscaling model for the purpose of generating plausible daily rainfall scenarios if elaborate GCM forecasts can used as a predictor. Also, the proposed NHMM model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are used as inputs.

Portfolio Efficient Transaction Choice Strategies based on the Global Electronic Commerce (효율적 거래포트폴리오의 선택에 의한 국제간 전자상거래방식의 전략적 활용방안)

  • Kim, Ki-Sun
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2001
  • This study discusses some theoretical implications for efficient utilization of the global E-commerce in a world of uncertainty by beginning with measures of risk and return for the global E-commerce, and by moving to risk and return for a efficient transaction portfolio of many risky methods of transaction. Decision rules are developed to show how individuals choose optimal transaction portfolios that maximize their expected utility of wealth. First, the individuals will generally want to allocate positive amount to the global E-commerce, which requires that the expected marginal utility of wealth equals zero. Secondly, the optimal transaction portfolio will be determined by finding the point of tangency between the efficient trading line and the hightest indifference curve in the mean-variance plane. Thirdly, if the global E-commerce is positively correlated with wealth, it must have an expected return that is higher than the risk-free transaction methods in order to compensate for its risk. Fourthly, on the other hand, if the global E-commerce is negatively correlated with wealth, it will have an expected return that is less than the risk-free transaction methods. Finally, the valuation of global E-commerce depends on the degree of individual's risk aversion and the covariance between the expected return of total wealth and the return of global E-commerce.

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