• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.43-54
• /
• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.59-66
• /
• 2020

This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.9-18
• /
• 2019

This study examined the dynamic change in the co-movement between the house price rates with the network methods of Mantegna (1999). First, Capital area and non-capital area form independent clusters which have the heterogeneous co-movement pattern. In other words, Capital and non-capital areas have low connectivity in the housing market. Also, if the co-movement between capital areas have been strengthened, the co-movement between non-capital areas have been weakened. The results of the dynamic analysis show that the degree of the co-movement in the housing market is continuously increased. The members of the co-movement group in the capital area are strongly steadied by all periods. However, the members in the non-capital area have been changed according to the period. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish policies based on various information for the housing market of the non-capital area rather than policies targeting the capital area. In addition, Apartments in Korea are more likely to be used as investment or speculative assets than other types of houses. It has been confirmed that this is Gangbuk, which is locatied in the northern part of Seoul, appears to be a region where the Spillover Effects of price fluctuation can be triggered in the housing and apartment market. However, the housing market in Gangnam, which is locatied in the southern part of Seoul, was divided into low systematic risk.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.190
• /
• pp.26-27
• /
• 2006

오직 주택시장의 투기바람 또는 불안 요인의 근본적 원인 분석과 해결방안에 관한 전문가 집단의 제안을 묵살한 '주택가격 안정'이라는 구호만 존재할 뿐이다. 토지이용의 효율성과 주거환경의 쾌적성은 법령의 제정 목적에서나 볼 수 있는 사문(死文)으로 만들지 말아야한다.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.199
• /
• pp.40-45
• /
• 2006

지난 10월 말 검단신도시 발표 이후 인천 부동산 시장이 스포트라이트를 받았다. 기존의 인천 경제자유구역과 택지지구 주변의 아파트, 토지 시장이 유망 투자처로 손꼽히면서 수요자들의 관심이 쏠리고 있다. 서울, 수도권 지역 집값 상승의 기폭제가 되었던 검단신도시를 다녀왔다.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• no.4 s.21
• /
• pp.122-125
• /
• 1992

[ $\circ$ ] 200만호 주택건설과 부동산투기 억제시책의 지속적인 추진으로 국민주거생활과 부동산가격의 안정기조가 정착되어가고 있으나 -금년에 실시될 선거 등의 영향으로 주택$\cdot$토지 등에 대한 투기가 재연될 우려가 있으므로 이에 대처하여 $\circ$ 주택부문에 있어서는 -금년에는 우리경제능력에 맞게 50만호를 건설하되 -실수요자를 위한 소형주택의 건설에 주력 $\circ$ 부동산투기억제를 위하여 -택지초과소유부담금 및 개발부담금제도를 엄격히 집행하고 -토지거래허가제의 사전$\cdot$사후관리를 강화하여 부동산거래질서를 확립하는데 중점을 두고 추진함.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.33-46
• /
• 2023

This study investigated price factors for large apartment complexes in Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic and compared Gangnam and non-Gangnam areas, which have been recognized as heterogeneous markets. We find that the change in apartment prices in large-scale complexes did not significantly affect the individual characteristics of apartments, unlike previous studies, but was affected by macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and money. On the other hand, considering the units of the interest rate and total monetary volume variables, the effects of two variables on the apartment sales price is significantly high. In addition, the Gangnam area model analysis shows that apartment prices are greatly affected by interest rates and currency volume, and, the non-Gangnam area model analysis shows that apartment prices are greatly affected by interest rates and currency volume, but the degrees are different from the Gangnam area model. Overall, our study shows that interest rates and money supply were the main factors of apartment price changes, but apartment prices in non-Gangnam areas are more sensitive to changes in interest rates and money supply.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.20 no.5
• /
• pp.115-124
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the housing price variation within the redevelopment project district, affected by the characteristics of project and implementation stage. This study implemented the hedonic price model employing the actual transaction price with 24 dependent variables from 2006 to 2016 inside 19 redevelopment districts in Seoul. Research finding indicates that the larger ratio of the number of tenants and general distribution, the smaller ratio of rented households and the more positive effect of housing price. It is noteworthy that this study demonstrated the actual transaction price of houses located within the project districts by implementation stage. This study is expected to help the policy makers, the developers and the investors make more reliable decisions on the feasibility study related to the redevelopment project.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.55-75
• /
• 2023

Based on prior studies on real estate policy, tax policy, and financial policy, this study examined how tax policy and financial policy affected real estate prices using monthly data from January 2014 to December 2021. We performed a VAR model using unit root tests, cointegration tests, as well as conducted impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The results are as follows. First, the tax regulation index and the financial regulation index had no discernible impact on housing prices. Specifically, a one-sided stabilizing regulatory policy was ineffective and, instead, led to unintended side effects, such as price increases resulting from reduced transaction volume. Secondly, mortgage rates had a negative impact on the housing sale price index. In other words, an increase in interest rates might led to a decrease in housing prices. Thirdly, an increase in the transfer difference, which involves capital gains tax, has a positive effect on housing prices. This led to rising housing prices because the transfer taxes were shifted to buyers, causing them to hesitate to make purchases due to the increased tax burden. Fourthly, both acquisition taxes and mortgage loans had relatively little impact on housing prices.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.21-49
• /
• 1994

공시지가제도하에서 개별필지 가격산정은 지가함수(地價函數) 추정, 비준표(比準表) 작성, 인근 유사 표준지(標準地)와의 특성차이를 감안한 가격결정 과정을 거치는데, 각 단계의 기술적 문제에 대한 연구는 별로 없었다. 이 글은 지가함수(地價函數) 추정에서 log-log함수형태가 통계학적으로 또는 실제 활용상 적합한가의 문제와 지가함수(地價函數) 추정결과를 그대로 지가예측식(地價豫測式)으로 이용할 수 있는가의 두가지 문제를 다루고 있다. 서울시 서초구와 강남구자료에 대해 Box-Cox 변형(變型)을 이용한 지가함수(地價函數)와 log-log형태의 지가함수(地價函數)를 추정하여 비교해 본 결과 통계학적으로는 전자가 우월하지만, 지가추정(地價推定)에서 양자간의 차이는 크지 않았으며 추정비용(推定費用), 활용(活用)의 용이성 등의 관점에서는 후자가 선호되었다. 또 지가함수(地價函數) 추정결과를 현재와 같이 표준지와 여타 토지간의 가격차이(價格差異)를 계산하는 용도로 한정하는 것이 표준지가격(標準地價格) 자체가 가진 정보를 활용하는 방안으로 바람직하다는 결론을 얻었다.