Land and Housing Review (토지주택연구)

Land and Housing Research Institute (한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원)
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The Impact of Stock-to-Flow Price Ratio on Housing Starts

재고-신규주택 상대가격이 주택공급에 미치는 영향

  • 지규현 (한양사이버대학교 디지털건축도시공학과) ;
  • 최성호 (코리아크레딧뷰로)
  • Received : 2020.02.28
  • Accepted : 2020.04.10
  • Published : 2020.04.30
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Abstract

This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.

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References

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