• Title/Summary/Keyword: 충격-반응 분석

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공매제도와 옵션 거래, 그리고 악재의 주가 반영 속도

  • Ok, Gi-Yul
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.183-205
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    • 1998
  • 공매(short sale)에 대한 제약이 없는 투자환경에 비해 공매에 대한 제약이 있는 투자환경에서는 주식과 같은 위험자산의 가격은 한동안 과대 평가된다. Figlewski & Webb (1993)는 공매에 대한 제약으로 인해 악재(bad news)가 주가에 과소 반영된다고 하였으며, Diamond & Verrecchia(1987)는 공매에 대한 여러 제약(short-sale constraints)으로 인해 주식시장에 호재로 작용하는 정보(favourable information)와 악재로 작용하는 정보(unfavourable information)가 주식시장에 비대칭적으로 반응하며, 악재가 주가에 더 늦게 반영된다는 것을 보였다. 그러나, 주가지수옵션의 거래는 여러 제약이 많은 공매제도로 인해 악재가 주식시장에 일시적으로 과소반영되는 비효율성을 해결해준다. 그래서 본 연구는 주가지수옵션이라는 파생금융상품의 도입으로 인해 악재의 주가 반응 속도에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 지에 대해 살펴보았다. 전환(switchig) GJR-MA(1) 모델을 이용한 실증분석 결과에 의하면, 주가지수옵션의 거래는 여러 제약이 많은 공매제도로 인해 악재가 주식시장에 늦게 반영되는 비효율성을 제거하게 되어, 옵션 도입 이후로 주식시장의 악재로 인한 변동성 충격(volatility shock)이 그 시장에 더욱 더 빨리 흡수되어 정보적 시장효율성(informational market efficiency)을 증대시키는 결과를 보였다.

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자동차 현가장치용 Rubber Bushing 부품의 신뢰성 향상

  • Jeong, Won;Gwon, Yeong-Ho;Yun, Sin-Il;Jo, Hyeon-Jong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.362-370
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    • 2006
  • 차량의 충격과 진동을 완화하고 링크의 조정역할을 하는 Rubber Bushing제품의 내구성이 약하게 되면 Control arm에서의 이탈사고나 차량의 떨림, 소음으로 인한 고객 불만이 발생하게 된다. 따라서, 국내외 시장에서의 경쟁력 향상을 위해 Rubber Bushing에 대한 내구성, 정특성, 동특성의 개선을 위한 기술의 개발이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 Rubber Bushing을 개발하는데 있어서 종전의 재료설계, 형상설계 및 공정설계에 대한 분석을 행하고, 실험계획법(DOE)을 활용하여 가장 적은 샘플의 시험으로 최적의 설계요소를 찾아내는 방법을 연구하는데 있다. Bushing의 품질특성이 재료, 형상 및 공정에서 어떠한 조건을 가질 때 특성치가 가장 높은 바람직한 반응을 얻을 수 있는 가를 연구하여 최적반응 조건을 결정하고자 한다.

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Interpretation of Morphology and Rubber-Phase Particle Size Distribution of High Impact Polystyrene (내충격성 폴리스티렌의 형태구조 및 고무상 입도분포 해석)

  • 정한균;정대원;안경현;이승종;이성재
    • Polymer(Korea)
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.744-753
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    • 2001
  • One of the most important factors which affect the impact strength of high impact polystyrene (HIPS) is the rubber-phase particle size and size distribution. In this study, HIPS was prepared from a batch reactor to observe the influence of reaction conditions such as rubber content, agitation speed and prepolymerization time on the particle size and size distribution. Measurements concerning the particle size distribution were conducted using a particle size analyzer. Due to swelling, the particle suspended in toluene increases in size with lower heat-treatment temperature and shorter heat-treatment time, while the particle in methyl ethyl ketone shows quite reasonable size without any effort of heat-treatment. As rubber content increases, the average particle size increases substantially, but the increase in agitation speed at lower rubber contents does not have much influence on the size. However, the polystyrene-phase particles occluded in rubber-phase become more uniform as agitation speed increases. Longer prepolymerization time produces rubber-phase particles with narrower particle size distribution.

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Study on the Price of Housing depending on the Ordinary housing stability policy (서민주거안정정책이 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Pill-Song;Koh, Bong-Sung
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.280-287
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze that ordinary housing stability policy determines the impact on housing prices. I got a conclusion such as the result next which carried out proof analysis for this. First, as a result of the Granger Causality Test, the house market of all areas appeared by affecting ordinary housing stability policy. Second, the shock reaction shows the reaction of the department (-) in all areas and ordinary housing stability policy appeared to be contributed to some extent house market stability. Third, as a result of having analyzed Logit Regression Analysis, ordinary housing stability policy appeared to considerable effects house market stability except Kangnam area of the Roh Moo-hyun government.

Comparison of Synchronization Phenomenon & the Changing Rate of the Charter Rates by major cities - Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, Daejeon - (주요 도시별 전세가율의 동조화 현상과 변동률 비교 - 전국, 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 대전 -)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.197-204
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to find the direction by analyzing the synchronization phenomenon and the change rate of apartment charter rate in Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju and Daejeon. For this purpose, this study used a total of 239 monthly data from January 2000 to November 2019 in Kookmin Bank housing statistics. In the correlation analysis, Korea showed the highest relationship in order of Seoul, Busan, Incheon and Daegu. Seoul showed a low figure of 0.3 without any distinctive features from other cities. On the other hand, Busan, Daejeon and Daegu showed high correlations. As a result of the regression analysis, Korea and 5 major cities were all moving in the same direction with positive(+) values. And Busan and Seoul responded significantly to Korea. In the shock response, Korea is most shocked by the change in Seoul. Daegu is relatively shocked by Busan and Daejeon. Seoul's charter rate has declined most strongly in the last three years. Therefore, it is time to be careful not to incur losses due to gap investment. If we look at the relationship between the charter rate and the sale price in future studies, we can better understand the Korean apartment market.

집권정당 정책과 계층별 소득분포 실증분석 - Granger Causality 분석과 충격반응분석 -

  • Kim, Jong-Gwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.315-331
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    • 2008
  • 미국 센서스 뷰로 데이터에 의하여 2차대전 후 민주당정부와 공화당정부의 실질 세전 소득증가율의 차이를 살펴볼 때 민주당정부 기간동안에 계층간의 소득불균형이 시정되면서 저소득계층의 소득증가율이 상대적으로 더 높았음을 알 수 있다. 반면에 공화당정부 기간동안에는 소득불균형이 심화되면서 저소득계층보다 고소득계층의 소득증가율이 더 높았다. 소득계층에서 하위 20%의 계층은 공화당정부의 기간동안에 비하여 민주당정부의 기간에 4배의 높은 소득증가율을 가졌다. 이는 양 정부별 실업률 차이에서 비롯되는 데 민주당정부의 기간 동안에 평균 30% 낮았으며 GDP성장률은 평균 30% 높았음에도 영향을 받은 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 정부별 차이는 1980년대 이후 세후 소득증가율에서도 나타나고 있다. 한편, 실증분석 결과에 따르면 한국의 경우 미국에서와 같이 저소득계층이 고소득계층 보다 거시경제정책에 따른 영향을 더 많이 받고 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 특히 신정부에서는 이전보다 적극적인 통화정책을 적절한 타이밍(timing)으로 실시하여야 할 필요성이 나타났다.

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환율변동(換率變動)의 추세분석(趨勢分析)과 시사점(示唆點)

  • Kim, Jun-Il
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.127-163
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    • 1995
  • WTO체제의 출범 및 향후의 OECD 가입 등에 따라 외환자유화와 자본시장 개방이 현실로 다가서고 있다. 자본시장 개방과 외환자유화는 이제까지 우리 경제가 경험하지 못하였던 구조적 충격인 동시에 향후 거시경제 운용체계에 커다란 변화를 초래할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 특히 가장 직접적으로 영향받게 될 환율의 변동패턴이 과거와 크게 달라짐에 따라 수출입과 국제수지를 포함한 거시경제변수들에 대한 직 간접적인 파급효과가 유발될 것으로 판단된다. 본고에서는 자본시장 개방에 따른 우리나라 환율변동의 구조적 변화를 조명(照明) 하고 개방경제하에서의 환율정책에 대한 시사점을 도출하고자 하였다. 우선 우리나라와 선진국(先進國) 환율의 장기추세변동(長期趨勢變動)을 비교분석함으로써 자본시장 개방 이후의 구조적 변화 가능성을 검토하였으며, 장기추세분석에 사용된 "Beveridge-Nelson 분해(分解)" 결과는 우리나라와 선진국 모두의 경우 환율의 오버슈팅(overshooting) 현상(現象)이 지지(支持)되지 않는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 장기 추세분석과 함께 구조(構造)VAR모형(模型)의 추정을 통하여 경상요인(經常要因)과 실물요인(實物要因)의 변화에 따른 환율과 상대가격(相對價格)의 반응을 추정한 결과는 환율의 시장조절기능을 존중하는 방향으로 환율정책이 변화되어야 할 필요가 있음을 시사(示唆)하고 있다.

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The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.169-206
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    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

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Cellular Responses of the TNT-degrading Bacterium, Stenotrophomonas sp. OK-5 to Explosive 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluene (TNT) (폭약 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluene에 노출된 분해세균 Stenotrophomonas sp. OK-5의 세포반응)

  • 장효원;송승열;김승일;강형일;오계헌*
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.247-253
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    • 2002
  • The cellular responses of TNT-degrading bacterium, Stenotrophomonas sp. OK-5 to explosive 2,4,6-trini-trotoluene (TNT) as an environmental contaminant were examined. Survival of the strain OK-5 with time in the presence of different concentrations of TNT under sublethal conditions was monitored, and viable counts paralleled the production of the stress shock proteins in this bacterium. Total cellular fatty acids analysis showed that strain OK-5 produced or disappeared several different kinds of lipids when grown on TNT media than when grown on TSA. Under scanning electron microscope, the cells treated with 0.5 mM TNT for 12 hrs showed irregular rod shapes with wrinkled surfaces. Analyses of SDS-PAGE and Western blot using anti-DnaK and anti-GroEL revealed that several stress shock proteins including 70 kDa DnaK and 60 kDa GroEL in strain OK-5 were newly synthesized at different TNT concentrations in exponentially growing cultures. 2-D PAGE of soluble protein fractions from the culture of OK-5 exposed to TNT demonstrated that approximately 300 spots were observed on the silver stained gel ranging from pH 3 to pH 10. Among them, 10 spots significantly induced and expressed in response to TNT were selected and analyzed. As the result of internal amino acid sequencing with ESI-Q TOF, two proteins, spot #1 and spot #10 were assigned the DnaK protein XF2340 of Xylella fastidiosa and stress-induced protein of Mesorhizobium loti, respectively.

Analysis of the Effects of the Exchange Rate Volatility on Marine and Air Transportation (환율변동성이 해상 및 항공 수출입화물에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Kyung-Ae
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.131-154
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    • 2017
  • In international trade, transportation generally has the largest and direct impact on freight costs. However, it is also sensitive to external factors such as global economic conditions, global trade volume and exchange rate. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the relationship and influence of international trade in terms of external factors that affect the change of imports and exports by marine and air transportation through empirical analysis. In particular, the analysis of the impact of these external factors on marine and air transportation is an important topic when recent exchange rate changes are significant, and it is also necessary to analyze what transportation means are more sensitive to exchange rate changes. In this study, we use the Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rate and domestic and international economic conditions on marine and air transportation from January 2000 to March 2017. Respectively. Alos, Impulse response function and variance decomposition were examined.

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