• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정 평균오차

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Application for a BWIM Algorithm Using Density Estimation Function and Average Modification Factor in The Field Test (밀도추정함수와 평균보정계수를 이용한 BWIM 알고리즘의 현장실험 적용)

  • Han, Ah Reum Sam;Shin, Soobong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.70-78
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    • 2011
  • The paper aims at developing a more reliable and accurate BWIM(Bridge Weigh-In-Motion) algorithm using measured strain data and examining its efficiency with various tests on bridges. It proposes a BWIM algorithm using density estimation function and average modification factor for moment-strain relationship. Density estimation function has been proved to be reliably applied when multiple axle loads are estimated. An average modification factor is applied to minimize overall error that can be encountered between theoretically computed moments and measured strains at multiple locations in a bridge. The developed algorithm has been successfully examined through numerical simulations, laboratory tests, and also by field tests on a multi-girder composite bridge.

SEQUENTIAL ALGORITHMS FOR DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL IDENTIFICATION (구조물의 동특성 추정을 위한 순차적 기법)

  • Yun, C-B.;Lee, H-J.
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1992.04a
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 1992
  • 구조물의 동적실험을 통하여 얻은 하중과 거동에 대한 시간기록을 분석하여, 구조계의 동 특성계수들을 추정하는 기법에 대하여 연구하였다. 실험과정 및 해석모형과정의 오차를 고려하기 위하여, 하중기록과 구조거동기록간의 관계를 추계론적 자동회기 및 이동평균모형(Stochastic Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMAX) Model)음 사용하여 모형화하였다. 미지의 ARMAX 계수행렬들은 순차적 예측오차기법을 사용하여 추정하였으며, 계수추정기법의 효율성을 증진시키기 위하여, Exponential Data Weighting, Global Data Weighting 및 Square Root Estimation 기법을 활용하였다. 다중거동측정계의 예제해석을 통하여 이의 효율성을 분석하였다.

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Indoor Localization System Using RSSI Measurement of Wireless Sensor Networks (수신 신호 강도(RSSI) 측정을 이용한 센서 네트워크상에서의 실내 위치 추정 시스템)

  • Kim, Young-Kyun;Yoo, Young-Dong;Chwa, Dong-Kyoung;Hong, Suk-Kyo;Park, Min-Ho;Han, Sang-Wan
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.505-506
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    • 2007
  • 일반적으로 저가 장비를 이용한 수신 신호 강도(RSSI)의 측정은 전파의 특성상 다소 부정확한 정보를 제공하고, 이는 최소평균제곱오차(MMSE)를 이용한 위치 추정 방법에 있어 큰 오차 요인으로 작용한다. 따라서 이 논문에서는 수신 신호 강도를 이용한 기존의 위치 추정 방법을 개선하기 위해 센서 네트워크상의 유효 노드선정 알고리즘을 제시한다. 그리고 개선된 방법을 이용하여 센서 네트워크 기반의 실내 위치 추정 시스템을 구현 한다. 끝으로, 개선된 방법의 성능 검증을 위한 실험 결과를 제시 한다.

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Illumination Estimation Based on Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Dominant Chromaticity Analysis (주색도 분석을 적용한 비음수 행렬 분해 기반의 광원 추정)

  • Lee, Ji-Heon;Kim, Dae-Chul;Ha, Yeong-Ho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.52 no.8
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2015
  • Human visual system has chromatic adaptation to determine the color of an object regardless of illumination, whereas digital camera records illumination and reflectance together, giving the color appearance of the scene varied under different illumination. NMFsc(nonnegative matrix factorization with sparseness constraint) was recently introduced to estimate original object color by using sparseness constraint. In NMFsc, low sparseness constraint is used to estimate illumination and high sparseness constraint is used to estimate reflectance. However, NMFsc has an illumination estimation error for images with large uniform area, which is considered as dominant chromaticity. To overcome the defects of NMFsc, illumination estimation via nonnegative matrix factorization with dominant chromaticity image is proposed. First, image is converted to chromaticity color space and analyzed by chromaticity histogram. Chromaticity histogram segments the original image into similar chromaticity images. A segmented region with the lowest standard deviation is determined as dominant chromaticity region. Next, dominant chromaticity is removed in the original image. Then, illumination estimation using nonnegative matrix factorization is performed on the image without dominant chromaticity. To evaluate the proposed method, experimental results are analyzed by average angular error in the real world dataset and it has shown that the proposed method with 5.5 average angular error achieve better illuminant estimation over the previous method with 5.7 average angular error.

국내금융자산의 시장위험 추정에 있어서 ARCH류 모형의 유용성 평가

  • Yu, Il-Seong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.157-176
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구는 KOSPI자산 포트폴리오에 대한 VaR를 다양한 ARCH류 모형을 사용하여 추정하고 이들의 예측능력을 평가하였다. 활용된 모형은 우선 기본적인 GARCH(1,1)모형과 레버리지 효과를 감안한 TGARCH모형, 다양한 ARCH모형을 포괄할 수 있는 PGARCH모형, 변동성의 영속성을 고려한 IGARCH모형이 포함되었다. 모형 상호간의 성과비교에 추가하여 ARCH류 모형에서 수익률예측오차의 분포에 따라서 VaR의 예측성과가 얼마나 차이가 발생하는가를 확인하기 위하여 정규분포와 Student-t분포의 성과를 비교하였다. 마지막으로 VaR 추정시에 조건부평균을 무시하는 관례가 어느정도 타당성이 있는지를 확인하기 위하여 1시차 자기회귀과정에 입각한 조건부 평균을 감안한 결과를 검토하였다. ARCH류 모형에서 모형 설명력은 보다 정교한 모형인 TGARCH모형이나 PGARCH모형이 우월하게 나타났지만, VaR의 예측능력 우월성으로 이어지지는 않았다. Student-t분포를 가정한 경우 VaR모형 사후검증성과는 정규분포를 가정한 경우보다 모든 신뢰수준에서 개선되었으며, 조건부평균의 제거는 Student-t분포 가정하에서는 적합하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. ARCH류 모형에서 가장 단순한 형태인 IGARCH모형의 예측성과가 다른 모형들에 비하여 뒤떨어지지 않으며, 더욱 제약된 형태인 RiskMetrics의 EWMA모형이 사후검증에서 우수한 성과를 보여 단순한 모형의 유용성을 확인시켜주고 있다.

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Estimation of changes in probability snow depth due to the rising global average temperature (지구평균온도 상승에 따른 확률 적설심 변화 추정)

  • Heeseong Park;Gunhui Chung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.274-274
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    • 2023
  • 기후변화의 영향으로 겨울철 적설의 양상이 과거와는 많이 달라진 것으로 보인다. 따라서 미래의 적설이 어떤 확률로 발생할 것인지도 과거에 비해 많이 달라질 것으로 예상된다. 하지만 어떤 정도로 달라질 것인지는 정확하게 알 수가 없다. 본 연구에서는 이를 합리적으로 추정하기 위해 일본에서 수행한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의실험 결과로 생성된 d4PDF(Data for Policy Decision Making for Future Change) 자료 중 적설과 기온 자료를 이용하여 일 최심적설심을 모의하고 연최대치계열을 작성하여 과거의 최심적설심 연최대치분포와 비교하여 분위사상법을 통해 모형의 오차를 보정한 후 미래 지구평균온도 상승 시의 기후모의 결과에 적용함으로써 지구평균온도 상승 정도에 따라 우리나라의 적설양상과 확률적설심이 어떻게 변화할 것인지 추정해 보았다. 연구의 결과는 미래 적설과 관련된 설계와 방재 목적에 참고적으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Comparative Analysis of TOA and TDOA method for position estimation of mobile station (이동국 위치 추정을 위한 TOA와 TDOA방법의 비교 분석)

  • 윤현성;이창호;변건식
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.595-602
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    • 2000
  • This paper is aimed at developing an location tracking system of mobile station based on currently available mobile communication network or mobile Phone and PCS(Personal Communication System). When the location tracking of mobile stations is in services, Emergency-119, all of crime investigation, effective urban traffic management and the safety protection of Alzheimer's patients can be available. In order to track the location of the mobile and base station, assumption in this paper is to use the statistic characteristics of LOS when modeling the standard noise in case that radio path is LNOS environment. The standard variation of the standard noise is $\pm150$. First, location is estimated by the positioning algorithms of TOA and TDOA and compared each other. Second, after canceling the standard noise by Kalman filter, location is estimated by the above two positioning algorithms. Finally, the location by the Kalman filter and two positioning algorithms is estimated by smoothing method. As a result, 2 dimensional average location error is imvoved by 51.2m in TOA and 34.8m in TDOA when Kalman filer and two positioning algorithms are used, compared with the two positioning algorithm used. And there is 3 more meter improvement after smoothing than Kalman filer and two positioning algorithms used.

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Low-complexity Sensor Selection Based on QR factorization (QR 분해에 기반한 저 복잡도 센서 선택 알고리즘)

  • Yoon Hak, Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2023
  • We study the problem of selecting a subset of sensor nodes in sensor networks in order to maximize the performance of parameter estimation. To achieve a low-complexity sensor selection algorithm, we propose a greedy iterative algorithm that allows us to select one sensor node at a time so as to maximize the log-determinant of the inverse of the estimation error covariance matrix without resort to direct minimization of the estimation error. We apply QR factorization to the observation matrix in the log-determinant to derive an analytic selection rule which enables a fast selection of the next node at each iteration. We conduct the extensive experiments to show that the proposed algorithm offers a competitive performance in terms of estimation performance and complexity as compared with previous sensor selection techniques and provides a practical solution to the selection problem for various network applications.

Probability Sampling to Select Polling Places in Exit Poll (출구조사를 위한 투표소 확률추출 방법)

  • Kim, Young-Won;Uhm, Yoon-Hee
    • Survey Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2005
  • The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the efficiency of the suggested systematic sampling from ordered voting places was evaluated in terms of mean prediction error and it turns out that the proposed sampling method outperformed the bellwether polling places sampling. We also calculated the variance of estimator from the proposed sampling, and considered the sample size problem to guarantee the target precision using the design effect of the proposed sample design.

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An Improved Estimation Model of Server Power Consumption for Saving Energy in a Server Cluster Environment (서버 클러스터 환경에서 에너지 절약을 위한 향상된 서버 전력 소비 추정 모델)

  • Kim, Dong-Jun;Kwak, Hu-Keun;Kwon, Hui-Ung;Kim, Young-Jong;Chung, Kyu-Sik
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.19A no.3
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2012
  • In the server cluster environment, one of the ways saving energy is to control server's power according to traffic conditions. This is to determine the ON/OFF state of servers according to energy usage of data center and each server. To do this, we need a way to estimate each server's energy. In this paper, we use a software-based power consumption estimation model because it is more efficient than the hardware model using power meter in terms of energy and cost. The traditional software-based power consumption estimation model has a drawback in that it doesn't know well the computing status of servers because it uses only the idle status field of CPU. Therefore it doesn't estimate consumption power effectively. In this paper, we present a CPU field based power consumption estimation model to estimate more accurate than the two traditional models (CPU/Disk/Memory utilization based power consumption estimation model and CPU idle utilization based power consumption estimation model) by using the various status fields of CPU to get the CPU status of servers and the overall status of system. We performed experiments using 2 PCs and compared the power consumption estimated by the power consumption model (software) with that measured by the power meter (hardware). The experimental results show that the traditional model has about 8-15% average error rate but our proposed model has about 2% average error rate.