• Title/Summary/Keyword: 최소자승 추정법

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Development of a New Software to Analyze Displacement and Predict Failure Time of the Rock Slope (암반사면 변위자료 분석 및 파괴시간 예측 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Noh, Young-Hwan;Um, Jeong-Gi
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2015
  • We have developed a software to predict failure time of the rock slope based on analysis of the data from real time displacement measurements with respect to time. The software consists of four modules that play roles in analytical methods such as inverse velocity method, log time-log velocity method, log velocity-log acceleration method and nonlinear least square method to estimate failure time. VisualBasic.NET on the MS Visual Studio platform was utilized as a development tool to efficiently implement the modules and the graphical user interface of the software. Displacement data obtained from laboratory physical model studies of plane sliding were used to explore the applicability of the software, and to evaluate the possibility of predicting potential slope failure. It seems possible to estimate failure time using developed software for sliding plane having exponential type of deformability.

Traffic Rout Choice by means of Fuzzy Identification (퍼지 동정에 의한 교통경로선택)

  • 오성권;남궁문;안태천
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 1996
  • A design method of fuzzy modeling is presented for the model identification of route choice of traffic problems.The proposed fuzzy modeling implements system structure and parameter identification in the eficient form of""IF..., THEN-.."", using the theories of optimization theory, linguistic fuzzy implication rules. Three kinds ofmethod for fuzzy modeling presented in this paper include simplified inference (type I), linear inference (type 21,and proposed modified-linear inference (type 3). The fuzzy inference method are utilized to develop the routechoice model in terms of accurate estimation and precise description of human travel behavior. In order to identifypremise structure and parameter of fuzzy implication rules, improved complex method is used and the least squaremethod is utilized for the identification of optimum consequence parameters. Data for route choice of trafficproblems are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed fuzzy modeling. The results show that the proposedmethod can produce the fuzzy model with higher accuracy than previous other studies -BL(binary logic) model,B(production system) model, FL(fuzzy logic) model, NN(neura1 network) model, and FNNs (fuzzy-neuralnetworks) model -.fuzzy-neural networks) model -.

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The optimal parameter estimation of storage function model based on the dynamic effect (동적효과를 고려한 저류함수모형의 최적 매개변수 결정)

  • Kim Jong-Rae;Kim Joo-Cheal;Jeong Dong-Kook;Kim Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.7 s.168
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    • pp.593-603
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    • 2006
  • The basin response to storm is regarded as nonlinearity inherently. In addition, the consistent nonlinearity of hydrologic system response to rainfall has been very tough and cumbersome to be treated analytically. The thing is that such nonlinear models have been avoided because of computational difficulties in identifying the model parameters from recorded data. The parameters of nonlinear system considered as dynamic effects in the conceptual model are optimized as the sum of errors between the observed and computed runoff is minimized. For obtaining the optimal parameters of functions, the historical data for the Bocheong watershed in the Geum river basin were tested by applying the numerical methods, such as quasi-linearization technique, Runge-Kutta procedure, and pattern-search method. The estimated runoff carried through from the storage function with dynamic effects was compared with the one of 1st-order differential equation model expressing just nonlinearity, and also done with Nash model. It was found that the 2nd-order model yields a better prediction of the hydrograph from each storm than the 1st-order model. However, the 2nd-order model was shown to be equivalent to Nash model when it comes to results. As a result, the parameters of nonlinear 2nd-order differential equation model performed from the present study provided not only a considerable physical meaning but also a applicability to Korean watersheds.

Estimation of Variance Component and Environment Effects on Somatic Cell Scores by Parity in Dairy Cattle (젖소집단의 산차에 따른 체세포점수의 환경효과 및 분산성분 추정)

  • 조광현;나승환;서강석;김시동;박병호;이영창;박종대;손삼규;최재관
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2006
  • This study utilized test day of somatic cell score data of dairy cattle from 2000 to 2004. The number of data used were 124,635 of first parity, 134,308 of second parity, 77,862 of third parity, 41,787 of forth parity and 37,412 of fifth parity. The data was analyzed by least square mean method using GLM to estimate the effects of calving year, age, lactation stage, parity and season on somatic cell score. Variance component estimation using test day model was determined by using expectation maximization algorithm- restricted maximum likelihood (EM-REML) analysis method. In each parity, somatic cell score was low for younger group and was relatively high in older groups. Likewise, for lactation stage, the score was low in early-lactation and high in late-lactation in first parity and second parity. Nevertheless, for the third, fourth and fifth parity, however, high somatic cell score was observed in mid-lactation. Generally, the score was high in the peak. Although in fourth and fifth parity, the score was low in late-lactation. Environmental effect of season, somatic cell score was generally low from September to November for all parities. The score was high between June and August when the milk production is usually low. The heritability in each parity were 0.05, 0.09, 0.10, 0.05 and 0.05 for parity 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, respectively. Genetic variance value was estimated to be high in second, third and fifth parity in early-lactation and to be low in first and forth parity.

Finite Difference Model of Unsaturated Soil Water Flow Using Chebyshev Polynomials of Soil Hydraulic Functions and Chromatographic Displacement of Rainfall (Chebyshev 다항식에 의한 토양수분특성 및 불포화 수리전도도 추정과 부분 치환 원리에 의한 강우 분포를 이용한 토양수분 불포화 이동 유한차분 수리모형)

  • Ro, Hee-Myong;Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Seung-Heon;Lee, Goon-Taek;Yun, Seok-In;Noh, Young-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.181-192
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    • 2003
  • We developed a mathematical simulation model to portray the vertical distribution of soil water from the measured weather data and the known soil hydraulic properties, and then compared simulation results with the periodically measured soil water profiles obtained on Jungdong sandy loam to verify the model, In this model, we solved potential-based Richards' equation by the implicit finite difference method superimposed on the predictor-corrector scheme. We presumed that: soil hydraulic properties are homogeneous; soil water flows isothermally; hysteresis is not considered; no vapor flows; no heat transfers into the soil profiles; and water added to soil surface is distributed along the soil profile following partial displacement principle. The input data were broadly classified into two groups: (1) daily weather data such as rainfall, maximum and minimum air temperatures, relative humidity and solar radiation and (2) soil hydraulic data to approximate unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and water retention. Each hydraulic polynomial function approximated using the Chebyshev polynomial and least square difference technique in tandem showed a fairly good fit of the given set of data. Vertical distribution of soil water as approximations to the Richards' equation subject to changing surface and phreatic boundaries was solved numerically during 53 days with a comparatively large time increment, and this pattern agreed well with field neutron scattering data, except for the surface 0.1 m slab.

Regional Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian Multiple Regression (Bayesian 다중회귀분석을 이용한 저수량(Low flow) 지역 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.325-340
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    • 2008
  • This study employs Bayesian multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method for regional low flow frequency analysis. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian multiple regression analysis were compared to conventional analysis using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian analysis at each return period are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits is remarkably reduced using the Bayesian multiple regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian multiple regression analysis is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the low flow sample size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to perform low flow frequency analysis. Also, we performed low flow prediction, including confidence interval, at two ungauged catchments in the Nakdong River basin using the developed Bayesian multiple regression model. The Bayesian prediction proves effective to infer the low flow characteristic at the ungauged catchment.

ADVANTAGE OF USING FREE NETWORK ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUE IN THE CRUSTAL MOVEMENT MONITORING GEODETIC NETWORKS

  • AhmedM.Hamdy;Jo,Bong-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2003
  • There are numerous adjustment techniques that deal with the adjustment of geodetic networks but the least squares adjustment is the most common one. During the network adjustment procedure two techniques can be used, the free network adjustment technique and the constrained network adjustment technique. In order to determine the optimum technique for adjusting the geodetic networks, which used for the geodynamical purposes, data from two different geodetic networks "Sinai geodetic network, Egypt, and HGN network, South Korea" had been examined. The used networks had a different configuration and located in different areas with different seismic activity. The results show that both techniques have a high accuracy and no remarkable differences in terms of RMS. On the contrary, the resulted coordinates shows that the constrained network adjustment technique not only cause a remarkable distortion in the station final coordinates but also if the fixed points that define the datum parameters are changed different solutions for the coordinates will be determined. This distortion affect not only in the determination of point displacement but also in the estimation of the deformation parameters, which play a significant role in the geodynamical interpretation of results. Comparing the results which obtained from both techniques with the widely known geodynamical models of the area reviles that the free network adjustment technique results are clearly match with these models, while those obtained from the constrained technique didn’t match at all. By considering the results it seams to be that the free network adjustment technique is the optimum technique, which can be used for the geodetic network adjustment.

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Economies of Scale and Scope In Seoul's Urban Bus Industry (서울 시내버스운송업의 규모 및 범위의 경제성 분석)

  • 김성수;김민정
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2001
  • Using a multiproduct translog cost function model, this paper examines the existence or absence of scale and scope economies in Seoul's urban bus industry. The Paper then conceptualizes that the bus firm produces three outputs (city, seat and local bus-kilometers) using low input factors(labor, capital, fuel and maintenance). Using 1996 annual observations for 81 Seoul's bus firms, the equation system consisting of a cost function and three input share equations is estimated with the nonlinear iterative Zellner method. The findings show that the cost function corresponding to a non-homothetic production technology with separability between local bus outputs and inputs adequately represents the structure of cost for Seoul's bus firms, and that the demand lot all input factors is quite inelastic with respect to their own price. On the other hand, nearly all firms experience mild overall economies or scale, but rather marked product-specific economies of scale with respect to all the three outputs. In addition, there appear to be substantial economies or scope associated with the joint production of city and seat bus services, while considerable diseconomies of scope associated with that of city and local bus services. These results indicate that the merger of smaller firms into larger firms with a fleet of approximately 200 buses would result in more cost-efficient bus services.

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A Study on the Numerical Modeling of the Fish Behabior to the Model Net - Parameter Estimation in Numerical Model of Fish Behavior - (모형그물에 대한 어군행동의 수직 모델링에 관한 연구 - 어군행동을 나타내는 수치 모델의 파라메터 추정 -)

  • Lee, Byoung-Gee;Lee, Dae-Jae;Chang, Ho-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.307-325
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    • 1995
  • IN order to gain a fundamental data for forecast or control of fish behavior and evaluated the feasibility of an application of the modeling technique to a field, in this paper a numerical model for describing the behavior of fishes in a water tank was presented. The parameters of the model were estimated by using the time-series data on the three-dimensional position of fishes and by applying the least squares algorithm. The estimated parameters were standardized to examine the variation of parameters according to the number of individuals and flow speed that the mean values of parameters were to be zero and their variances were to be one. The results obtained can be summarized as follows: (1) The standardized parameter $a^*$of propulsive force decreased according to increased the number of individuals and the flow speed. (2) The standardized parameter ${k_b}^*$ of interactive force increased according to increased the number of individuals, but decreased according to the flow speed. (3) The standardized parameter ${k_c}^*$ of schooling force increased according to │increased the number of individuals and the flow speed. (4) The standardized parameter │${k_w}^{+*}$│ of repulsive force against wall or bottom increased according to increased the number of individuals, but decreased according to the flow speed. (5) The standardized parameter │${k_w}^{-*}$│ of attractive force against wall or bottom was generally constant according to increased the number of individuals, but increased according to the flow speed. (6) The standardized parameter $\upsilon$ super(*) of damping force increased according to increased the number of individuals, but decreased according to the flow speed.

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Towards 3D Modeling of Buildings using Mobile Augmented Reality and Aerial Photographs (모바일 증강 현실 및 항공사진을 이용한 건물의 3차원 모델링)

  • Kim, Se-Hwan;Ventura, Jonathan;Chang, Jae-Sik;Lee, Tae-Hee;Hollerer, Tobias
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents an online partial 3D modeling methodology that uses a mobile augmented reality system and aerial photographs, and a tracking methodology that compares the 3D model with a video image. Instead of relying on models which are created in advance, the system generates a 3D model for a real building on the fly by combining frontal and aerial views. A user's initial pose is estimated using an aerial photograph, which is retrieved from a database according to the user's GPS coordinates, and an inertial sensor which measures pitch. We detect edges of the rooftop based on Graph cut, and find edges and a corner of the bottom by minimizing the proposed cost function. To track the user's position and orientation in real-time, feature-based tracking is carried out based on salient points on the edges and the sides of a building the user is keeping in view. We implemented camera pose estimators using both a least squares estimator and an unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We evaluated the speed and accuracy of both approaches, and we demonstrated the usefulness of our computations as important building blocks for an Anywhere Augmentation scenario.