• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.525-539
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• 2016

This study attempts to predict the changes in the spatial distribution of occupational employment in Korea by applying Markov Chain Model. For the purpose we analyze the job-related migration pattern and estimate the transition probability with the last six years job-related migration data. By applying the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the spatial distribution of occupational employment for the next ten years. The result reveals that the employment of professional jobs is predicted to increase at every city and region except Seoul, while the employment of elementary labor jobs is predicted to increase slightly in Seoul. In particular, Gangwon-do and Chuncheongdo are predicted to increase in the employment of all occupational jobs.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.351-365
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• 2019

This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.155-173
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• 2024

Using Regional Employment Survey, this article analyzes the widening employment gap between Capital and Non-Capital regions since the 2008 global financial crisis through describing the spatial distribution of employment by industry and occupation, calculating the regional downward employment rate of university graduates, and estimating the regional distribution of employment growth in terms of wage distribution, and then statistically analyzes the effect of the declining manufacturing employment in the Non-Capital region since the mid-2010s on total employment change. The results from these analyses are as follows. First, since the mid-2000s, the share of producer services and white-collar jobs has increased in the Capital region. Second, the Non-Capital region has a higher share of non-regular workers relative to wage workers than the Capital region. Third, while the downward employment rate has increased in the Non-Capital region since the mid-2010s, it has risen very modestly or stagnated in the Capital region. Fourth, in terms of wage distribution, the pattern of employment growth since the mid-2010s has been U-shaped, a typical polarized pattern of simultaneous growth in low- and high-wage jobs and decline in middle-wage jobs in the Non-Capital region, while in the Capital region it has been L-shaped with the sides reversed, driven by growth in high-wage jobs. Fifth, this employment polarization in the Non-Capital region since the mid-2010s is associated with employment changes in manufacturing, which accounts for a large share of middle wage jobs. Finally, according to the analysis of the effect of regional manufacturing employment changes on total employment changes since the mid-2010s, declines in manufacturing employment reduce the region's regular employment rate and have a larger negative employment effect in the Non-Capital region. Based on these findings, some policy issues are discussed including the branch plant economy regime based on spatial separation of conception and execution, the mix of geographic and skill mobility, the need to improve employability and jobs through human capital accumulation, and short- and long-term responses to employment fluctuations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.5 s.91
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• pp.35-44
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• 2006

Acceleration and deceleration curves have been used for design purposes worldwide. The curve in design level has been regarded as an single deterministic curve to be used for design of climb lanes. It should be noted that the curve was originally made using ideal driving truck and that the curve is applied during design based on the assumption of no difference between ideal and real driving conditions. However. observations show that aged vehicles and lazy behavioring drivers nay make lower performance of vehicles than the ideal performance. The present paper provides the results of truck speeds at climbing lanes then probabilistic variation of acceleration and deceleration corves. For these purposes. a study about identification of vehicle makers, and weights for trucks at freeway toll gates and then observation of vehicle-following speed were performed. The 85%ile results obtained were compared with the deterministic performance curves of 180, 200, and 220 Ib/hp. It was identified that the performance of 85%ile results obtained from vehicle-following-speed observations were lower than one from deterministic performance curves. From these results, it may be concluded that at the beginning Point of climbing lanes additional $16.19{\sim}67.94m$ is necessary and that at the end point of climbing lanes $53.12{\sim}103.24m$ of extension is necessary.