• 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2019.11a
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• pp.165-170
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• 2019

본 논문은 매출액대비연구개발비비중과 배당성향이라는 두 지표를 사용하여 IPO 전후 기업 경영의 변화를 관측하고, 이 같은 변화가 장기적인 기업 발전을 위한 창업자의 지배권 보장이라는 차등의결권 주식 발행의 필요성을 입증하는지 검토한다. 매출액대비연구개발비와 배당성향은 각각 장기적인 목적과 단기적 목적의 현금흐름 사용의 대표적 지표로서, 두 지표는 현금흐름의 처분에 대한 주주의 압력을 간접적으로 측정하는 지표이다. 두 지표가 IPO를 전후하여 크게 차이를 보이며, 또 그 차이가 단기적 이익보다 장기적 성과를 중시하는 방향으로 나타난다면 장기적 기업 가치 제고를 위해 차등의결권의 유용성을 방증할 수 있으나, 반대의 경우에는 차등의결권 도입의 실증적 근거가 미약하다고 할 수 있다. 본 논문의 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 2000년부터 2016년까지 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장, 코넥스시장에 상장한 기업 중 IPO 전후 3년 간, 즉 t-3년 ~ t+3년에 각각 연구개발비비중과 배당성향을 공시하고 있는 278개 기업과 37개 기업을 조사한 결과, 매출액대비연구개발비 비중이 IPO 이후 반드시 감소하였다고 판단할 수 없었다. 둘째, 배당성향은 일관되게 IPO 이전 수준이 IPO 이후 수준보다 높았다. 이 같은 결과는 기업의 장기적 발전을 위하여 창업자의 지배권을 보장하기 위해 차등의결권이 필요하다는 주장의 실증적 근거가 명확하지 않음을 의미한다. 단기적 시각의 주주에 대항하여 현금흐름과 지배권이 분리된 주식을 발행할 필요가 있다는 주장보다는 차등의결권이 지배주주의 경영권 영속화의 수단으로 활용될 수 있다는 비판이 보다 설득력이 있을 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.87-99
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• 2008

우리는 정부의 재정지출이 주가와 콜금리 및 회사채, 산업생산 등에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분기별 데이터를 사용하여 분석하였다. 선행연구들을 살펴보면, 미국의 경우 1960년부터 2000년 기간사이에서 GDP에서 차지하는 조세징수액의 1% 표준편차 (standard deviation) 상승이 분기별로는 4% 그리고 연간 9%의 기대수익률(연율 기준) 을 낮추는 영향을 미쳤음을 알 수 있다. 한국의 경우 미국의 선행연구에서와 비슷하게 재정정책과 통화정책의 변수를 동시에 사용하였을 경우 재정정책과 통화정책변수 모 두 코스피수익률보다는 회사채수익률과의 연관성이 더 높음을 알 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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• 2016.11a
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• pp.236-237
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• 2016

인류의 발전과 함께 재난관리에 대한 발전도 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 세계은행(World Bank)의 조사에 의하면 지난 30년간 전 세계적으로 자연재해로 인해 250만 명의 사람이 목숨을 잃었고, 피해금액은 4조 달러에 이르는 것으로 나타나, 아직 재난관리 체계에 많은 문제점이 있음이 드러났다. 특히, 우리나라는 각종 재난으로 인해 최근 10년(2006~2015)간 연 평균 약 5천억원의 피해액과, 약 1조 1천억원의 복구비를 지출하고 있다(국민안전처, 2016). 만약 재난 피해 발생 전 피해규모와 영향을 신속하게 추정할 수 있다면, 예방 및 대비 차원의 재난관리를 통해 피해액이 크게 감소될 것이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내 재해의 65% 이상을 차지하고 있는 호우피해를 대상으로, 피해 예측함수를 개발하였다. 한강 권역을 본 연구의 대상지역으로 선정하였고, 재해연보자료를 조사하여 대상지역의 호우피해 발생 현황 및 피해액을 분석하였다. 또한 대상지역의 강우자료를 확보하기 위해 종관기상관측소의 강우자료를 확보하였다. 강우자료를 이용하여 지속시간별(1~24시간) 최대강우 자료와 재해기간별 선행강우(1~5일) 자료, 그리고 재해기간의 총 강우량 자료를 산출하였다. 이를 독립변수로 하여 재해기간의 시설물별 피해액과의 분석을 통해 호우피해 예측함수를 개발하였다. 호우피해 예측함수는 피해액을 로지스틱회귀분석을 통해 호우피해액이 큰 범위와 호우피해액이 작은 범위로 분류한 혼합분포를 이용하여 개발하였다. 본 연구는 효과적인 재해 관리체계를 확립 하고, 재해예방 및 대비 단계의 기초 자료로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.66 no.3
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• pp.231-251
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• 2014

Recently, Korean government documented the plan to cope with the situation related to rich pensioners of Basic old-age pension. The purpose of this paper is to verify that how many rich pensioners are existing and to evaluate government reform plan's validity and effect. Main results are as follows; firstly, if the definition of rich pensioners is on the top 10%, the proportion of them would form 2.9% of total. And then, an amount of expenditure for them is only 2.6% of total. Secondly, in terms of disposable income, debt, and transfer income from child, the household who would be applied by government's plan is not richer than other household who is in the same living standard. And then, if the government's plan enforced, the effect might be very small. Lastly, the plan of government will discriminate against persons who support their parent. As a result, Basic old-age pension will be worsen. This paper should underline that the government's reform is only the 'hidden' retrenchment strategy in order to introduce a standard of the obligation to support own parent in the state without scientific prediction and serious discussion of negative public opinion. That is why, this is the same as the 'Trojan Horse'.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.553-568
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• 2022

The Household Income and Expenditure Survey is a representative survey of Statistics Korea, which aims to measure and analyze national income and consumption levels and their changes by understanding the current state of household balances. Recently, the disconnection problem in these time series caused by the large-scale reorganization of the survey methods in 2017 and 2019 has become an issue. In this study, we model the characteristics of the time series in the Household Income and Expenditure Survey up to 2016, and use the modeling to compute forecasts for linking the expenditures in 2017 and 2018. In order to evenly reflect the characteristics across all expenditure item series and to reduce the impact of a specific forecast model, we synthesize a total of 8 models such as regression models, time series models, and machine learning techniques. In particular, the noteworthy aspect of this study is that it improves the forecast by using the optimal combination technique that can exactly reflect the hierarchical structure of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey without loss of information as in the top-down or bottom-up methods. As a result of applying the proposed method to forecast expenditure series from 2017 to 2019, it contributed to the recovery of time series linkage and improved the forecast. In addition, it was confirmed that the hierarchical time series forecasts by the optimal combination method make linkage results closer to the actual survey series.

• 한국노년학
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.109-126
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• 2005

Recently it has been encouraged in developed countries that labor force participation of the elderly is one of the means to cut down the cost of social welfare for them. However, empirical studies have rarely explored how work in later life contributes to national economy. Especially, even though 56.6 percent of elderly workers aged 65 and older engaged in agriculture and forestry in Korea, their contribution has been socio-economically overlooked. This study aims at examining the effect of farming labor in later life on social welfare expenditure. For this purpose, social welfare expenditure was defined as social benefits provided for the elderly by the social security in public sector and measured as transportation allowance, pension, livelihood aid, medical aid, and health insurance in 2003. Data were obtained from National Health Insurance Cooperation and 37 town/village offices and analyzed by 3 age groups; 65~74, 75~84, and 85 and over using SPSS/PC windows program. Results showed that both livelihood and medical support in all age groups were expended more to non-farm than to farm workers. The amount differences per person between them were 113,959~361,132 won in livelihood support and 15,644~51,418 won in medical support. Also, participation in farming influence reduction of livelihood expenditure for the group 65~74 and 75~84 and that of medical expenditure only for the group 65~74. Based on these results, it was estimated the amount of social welfare expenditure reduced by farming labor in later life. The limit of this study and the policy implications of the results are discussed.

• Korea Petroleum Association Journal
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• no.7 s.185
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• pp.77-79
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• 1996

95년중 우리나라는 1인당 국민소득이 처음으로 1만달러를 넘어 섰으며, 경제규모 (경상GNP)는 4,517억달러로 세계 11위, 교역규모는 2,603억달러로 세계13위(94년기준) 국가로 부상하였음. 경제구조면에서도 농림어업의 비중이 낮아지고 광공업 및 서비스업의 비중이 높아지는 등 산업구조가 고도화되었으며, 최종 소비지출의 비중이 낮아진 반면 설비 및 건설투자의 비중이 높아졌음. 또한 엥겔계수가 낮아지고 노동소득분배율이 높아지는 등 경제구조가 전반적으로 선진국형에 근접해가고 있는 것으로 나타났음. 이와 같은 경제발전에 따라 제조업 근로자의 주당 평균 근로시간, 인구 1만명당 의사수, 주택 보급률, 고등교육기관 학생수 및 연구개발투자액의 대GNP 비중 등 주요사회지표가 크게 호전된 것으로 나타났음. 특히 이중에서도 고등교육기관 학생수 및 연구개발투자액의 대GNP비중등은 우리나라의 높은 교육열등을 반영하여 주요국의 1만달러시기 수준보다 높은 것으로 나타났음.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.8
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• pp.547-558
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to derive the impact factors through multi-return analysis by dividing the satisfaction level of the users of the Food Bank into service satisfaction, food satisfaction, and facility and environment satisfaction and then present a plan for improving service quality. As a result, first of all, the analysis shows that the service satisfaction was not statistically significant. Second, the satisfaction level of food was higher when they get cooked food and when the frequency of support was low. It can be interpreted as important to users to properly solve the problem of fasting through cooked food rather than the frequency of food provision. Third, the satisfaction level of the facility and environment was higher for those with higher educational background, lower monthly income, and higher food expenditure after the support. Users with high educational background value information, service hours, facilities and environment hygiene, and users with low monthly income and high food expenditure even after receiving support can infer the need for food bank services to solve the problem of fasting. Based on these findings, it emphasized the need to develop user-centered services so that the problem of fasting could be effectively resolved in consideration of the conditions of service users.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.219-230
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• 2018

The Suncheon Bay National Garden and Suncheon Bay Wetland Reserve in Suncheon city are becoming a famous tourist place in national wide. This study investigates the visitors' behavior and economic impacts of the Mulbit Festival held in Suncheon Bay National Garden from July to August 2017. Results of visitors' behaviors showed that the total number of visitors to the festival were 802,825; 75.0% of respondents were outside visitors; 52% of respondents were accommodation visitors; 52.8% of respondents had a plan to visit downtown of Suncheon city. Results of economic impacts of the Mulbit festival showed that the per capita average consumption expenditure of outside visitors and inside visitors were respectively 112,793 won and 17,269 won; the total direct economic impacts was 57 billion won and production, income, and value added inducement impacts among the total indirect economic impacts were respectively 91.9 billion won, 19.1 billion won, and 41.3 billion won.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.265-285
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• 2020

The inbound tourism market is recognized as a vital sector of the tourism industry today, but it is highly volatile due to each country's economic, social, and cultural variables. The causes of volatility vary according to the inbound country, and we intend to revitalize the stabilized tourism industry by minimizing risks. In this study, the portfolio theory was applied to derive the optimal combination for each country to achieve the minimum risk level's maximum growth rate. The number of inbound travelers and the average expenditure per person was simultaneously applied. As a result of the analysis, the best mix by country based on the number of inbound travelers was the UK, the United States, Germany, China, and Japan. Based on average spending, each country's best combinations were Thailand, Middle East, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Hong Kong, and Germany. It is expected to be able to establish a plan to operate the Korean inbound tourism market strategically.