• Title/Summary/Keyword: 주가 추세 예측

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세계의 유황수급 전망

  • Ceccotti S.P;Messick D.L
    • Proceedings of the Mineralogical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.7-24
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    • 1996
  • '90년대 전반기 중 세계 경제 상황은 정치, 경제 및 환경의 급격한 변화에 따른 불황으로 유황시장에도 심대한 영향을 미치게 되었다. 이와 같은 경기의 후퇴는 다수의 생산자로 하여금 전반적인 시장 상황을 바꿀 수 있는 전략 변경 및 새로운 시장 개발을 촉진시키게 하였다. 최근에 전개되고 있는 극단적인 정치$\cdot$경제적인 변화는 재래시장과 무역균형을 변경시키게 되었다. 개선되는 세계경제에 따른 광범위한 구조조정과 지난 2년간 진행되어온 전반적으로 농업에 유리한 조건에 힘입어 1995년 유황공업은 회복이 시작되어 54.63백만 톤이 생산되었다 국제 유황 무역은 수요와 공급 면에서는 균형을 못 찾고 있다. 1995년 유황생산 중 무역량은 $45\%$에 이르렀다. 유황생산에 영향하는 요소가 변함에 따라 무역의 형태가 변하게 되고 세계 유황 수급 균형에 영향을 주게 되었다. 지난 2년간 있었던 유황생산 회복은 다음 십년간 지속될 것으로 예측된다. 대부분 수요의 증가는 자연가스의 생산을 지배하는 요소에 따라 결정 될 것이다 1986년 이래 유가가 떨어진 후 세계 에너지 수요는 연간 $2.3\%$ 증가하였다. 석유와 가스는 미래 에너지 수요의 증가로 $70\%$이상을 공급하게 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 회수 유황은 원유의 정제로부터 유래된 것으로 가장 신장이 큰 공급원으로 2005년까지 주요유황생산 부분이 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 주요 회수 유황생산국은 일본으로 전체의 $66\%$를 차지한다. 석유 정제로부터 회수 유황생산량은 동아시아에서 증가하고 있다. 유황회수 시설 투자는 일본을 위시하여 한국, 싱가폴 및 태국에서 이루어지고 있으며 이는 점차 증대되는 환경규제에 기인된다. 동아시아 공업국가 예컨대 일본과 한국에서의 유황소비는 인산생산 저조로 정체해 있으나 지난 10년간 여타의 아시아 국가에서의 유황소비는 꾸준히 증가되었다. 이 같은 증가는 앞으로 10년간 계속 될 것으로 추정된다. 이는 유황비료 소비가 4.81백만 톤에서 6.6백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상되고 이는 주로 중국이 내수 인산생산을 증가시키려는 데 기인된다. 더욱이 다가올 10년은 다수의 아시아 국가의 급속한 경제 발전으로 비료 이외의 유황의 소비가 꾸준히 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 10.29백만 톤을 생산하고 10.99백만 톤을 소비하여 1995년에는 70만 톤의 유황이 부족하였다. 이와 같은 영향이 계속된다면 동아시아 유황부족은 2005년에는 1.05백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 중국에서 황화철에서부터 공급되는 유황함량이 많아 이 지역에서의 원소유황의 진정한 균형에 대해서는 정확하게 평가되지 못한다. 1995년 동아시아에서는 1.3백만 톤의 원소유황을 일본, 캐나다, 미국에서 수입했다. 이들 국가는 앞으로도 이 지역의 주요 공급자가 될 것이다. 황산의 많은 양은 일본에서 이 지역으로 수출되는데 그 양은 1995년 10만톤 이상에 이른다. 더욱이 경제?환경적 이점 때문에 중국이 황화물에서 회수하는 유황대신 원소 유황의 수입을 지속적으로 증가시키고 있어 지역내의 유황 부족이 증가 될 것이다. 이 같은 상황진전으로 앞으로 10년 이내에 2.5백만 톤의 추가시장이 있게 될 것이다. 이 기간내 한국으로서 현재 326,000톤의 부족에서 2005년에는 309,000톤의 과잉으로 유황균형이 변할 수 있는 주요계기가 될 것이다 이 같은 과잉은 회수 유황생산이 1995년 333,000톤에서 2005년 870,000톤으로 $161\%$가 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 동기간 내에 기타 유황생산은 280,000톤에서 320,000톤으로 $14\%$ 증가되는 것으로 추정된다. 그리하여 2005년 한국에서 유황 공급은 1.19백만 톤이고 수요는 881,000톤으로 추정 된다. 미래 한국에서 유황의 또 다른 잠재시장은 식물양분으로서 이다. 인산비료 생산은 유황산업의 골격으로 1995년 세계적으로 인산비료는 유황소비의 53%인 53.60백만 톤을 점유하였다. 작물의 유황결핍 현상은 세계도처에서 나타나고 있어 식물양분으로서 유황시장은 20년전의 시장과 같이 현황을 띠는 시장으로 유황공업이 때를 만나게 될 것이다. 공업국에서 유황의 대기로의 방출억제로 자연 공급량이 감소되고 개발도상국에서 증산으로 유황의 탈취가 증가됨에 따라 유황 부족은 점차 중요한 문제로 확산되고 있다. 세계적으로 $1993\~1994$년간 7.52백만 톤으로 추정되는 유황 부족이 농산물의 수량과 질을 하락시키는 결과를 가져오게 하였다: 이와 같은 현상으로 유황비료의 수요가 증대되었고 산업계는 수요증대에 대응할 기술개발에 노력하게 되었다. 현재의 식량생산과 비료 소비추세가 지속된다면 아시아에서 2000년까지 매년 4.5백만 톤의 유황부족이 있게 될 것이다 이와 같은 유황비료의 부족은 적절한 대책을 취하지 않는 한 2010년에는 6.5백만 톤으로 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 경제발전으로 유황비료 장기 잠재시장이 기대되고 새로운 시장으로 $50\%$이상을 점유하게 될 것이다. 서구와 북미에서 유황비료 산업은 이윤 있는 잠재시장으로 인정되고 상업적으로 앞서 있는 시장이다. 점증하는 수요에 대한 대처와 유황비료의 성공은 시장에서 가격에 좌우된다. 실제로 북미와 서구에서 현재의 소매가격은 유황 톤당 $266\~466\$$의 범위에 있다. 인도에서는 비료로서 유황시장은 덜 발달된 단계로서 대표가격은 $120\$$이다. 이 가격 범위로 보아 2010년에 동아시아 시장의 잠재 유황비료 시장은 3.4백만 톤에 이르고 비료공업에서 추가로 얻는 이윤은 408백만 내지 1조5천억$\$$이 될 것이다. 이와 같은 시장이 발전 될 수 있는 것은 계속된 제품개발과 비료산업 시장개척에 달려있다.

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A Study on the trend of change in the number of elementary school students in Korea (우리나라 초등학교 학생수 변화 패턴에 대한 조사 연구)

  • Yoon, Yong-Gi;Choi, Ki-Seok
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • The results of research and analysis are as follows: First, there were 108 types of change patterns in the number of elementary school students. Second, based on the similarity of 108 types of change patterns in the number of students, a type system diagram was presented. Third, in the case of a total of 18 types of change patterns in the number of students, the number of students decreased significantly due to the establishment of additional schools on top of the existing schools. The result of a a long-term survey and analysis on the trend of increase and decrease in the number of students across the country shows an urgent need todevelop policy tasks across the entire school accommodation plan, such as the establishment of differentiated schools suitable for regional characteristics, relocation, consolidation, reorganization of school districts, remodeling, and appropriatization projects.

Clinical Characteristics of Asthmatic Patients Who Visited Emergency Room (응급실로 내원한 천식환자들의 임상적 특성)

  • Suh, Jung-Kyung;Lee, So-Ra;Lee, Sang-Youb;Lee, Sang-Hwa;Cho, Jae-Youn;Shim, Jae-Jeong;In, Kwang-Ho;Kang, Kyung-Ho;Yoo, Se-Hwa
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.290-297
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    • 1997
  • Background : Despite remarkable progress of understanding the pathophysiology and therapy of bronchial asthma, asthma morbidity and mortality are on the rise. Also hospitalization and attending rates of emergency department for asthma have been increasing gradually. We analyzed clinical characteristics and prognosis of patients who visited emergency room due to asthma attack in order to define clinical characteristics of these group of patients. Method : We reviewed 105 adult asthmatic patients who attended emergency department of Korea University Hospital between August 1995 and July 1996, retrospectively. Results : 103 patients(56 female, 47 males, mean age : 48.6 years) attended-68 self referral, 18 practitioner referral and 17 OPD transfer- and 86 patients(83.5%) were admitted. Attending emergncy department was clearly more frequent in December(13.6%) and May(12.6%). Time lag between onset of asthmatic attack and arrival at the hospital was $14.2{\pm}15.5$ hour and initial peak expiratory flow rate was $166.7{\pm}68.3L/min$.(43.3% predicted) The commonest cause for visiting emergency room was aggravation of asthma due to upper respiratory tract infection in mild asthmatics. About half of them had history of previous ER visits. Their prognosis was not bad, but after discharge, about half of patients escaped from OPD follow-up. Conclusion : As a group they merit detailed attention and follow up arrangement. Clinician need to monitor and review the treatment plans, the medications, the patient's management technique, and the level of asthma control. For this group, plans for longer term treatment, including asthma education program and adjustment of overall treatment plan should be made.

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Estimation of freeze damage risk according to developmental stage of fruit flower buds in spring (봄철 과수 꽃눈 발육 수준에 따른 저온해 위험도 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Eun-jeong;Ju, Okjung;Park, Jong Sun;Shin, Yong Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

Residual Change of Deltamethrin in Stream Water after Spaying for Pest Control of Stream Levee (하천둔치에 방역용 Deltamethrin 살포 시 하천수 중 잔류변화)

  • Han, Ye-Hun;Park, Jae-Hun;Lim, Jong-Sung;Lee, Yong-Ju;Lee, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Kyu-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.78-83
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    • 2013
  • BACKGROUND: This study was performed to investigate the change of deltamethrin residue after spraying for control of hygienic insects in bush of levee at Bansuk-dong stream (A) and Juk-dong ditch (B) in Yuseong, Daejeon. The drop concentrations and disappearance of deltamethrin residue in stream water were determined to evaluate the toxic effects of stream ecosystem. METHODS AND RESULTS: Water samples were collected at 7 points including 0, 5, 10, 20, 40, 70 and 100 m downstream from the deltamethrin spraying point. Water sample was partitioned into dichloromethane, and was determined with GC/${\mu}$-ECD. Limit of Quantitation of deltamethrin was 0.04 ${\mu}g/L$. Recoveries of deltamethrin at two fortification levels of 0.4 and 2.0 ${\mu}g/L$ were $91.57{\pm}3.13%$(n=3) and $94.40{\pm}4.59%$(n=3) in A stream, and $88.24{\pm}3.33%$(n=3) and $85.20{\pm}3.73%$(n=3) in B stream, respectively. Residue of A stream were from <0.04 ${\mu}g/L$ to 0.48 ${\mu}g/L$ and B stream were from 0.08 ${\mu}g/L$ to 14.95 ${\mu}g/L$ under practice application condition. And residues were from <0.04 ${\mu}g/L$ to 0.2 ${\mu}g/L$ in A stream treated deltamethrin with 1.0 mg level at the upper region. CONCLUSION(S): Practice application of deltamethrin for the pest control of waterside was not much shown toxic effect to ecosystem of stream.

Framework of Stock Market Platform for Fine Wine Investment Using Consortium Blockchain (공유경제 체제로서 컨소시엄 블록체인을 활용한 와인투자 주식플랫폼 프레임워크)

  • Chung, Yunkyeong;Ha, Yeyoung;Lee, Hyein;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.45-65
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    • 2020
  • It is desirable to invest in wine that increases its value, but wine investment itself is unfamiliar in Korea. Also, the process itself is unreasonable, and information is often forged, because pricing in the wine market is done by a small number of people. With the right solution, however, the wine market can be a desirable investment destination in that the longer one invests, the higher one can expect. Also, it is expected that the domestic wine consumption market will expand through the steady increase in domestic wine imports. This study presents the consortium block chain framework for revitalizing the wine market and enhancing transparency as the "right solution" of the nation's wine investment market. Blockchain governance can compensate for the shortcomings of the wine market because it guarantees desirable decision-making rights and accountability. Because the data stored in the block chain can be checked by consumers, it reduces the likelihood of counterfeit wine appearing and complements the process of unreasonably priced. In addition, digitization of assets resolves low cash liquidity and saves money and time throughout the supply chain through smart contracts, lowering entry barriers to wine investment. In particular, if the governance of the block chain is composed of 'chateau-distributor-investor' through consortium blockchains, it can create a desirable wine market. The production process is stored in the block chain to secure production costs, set a reasonable launch price, and efficiently operate the distribution system by storing the distribution process in the block chain, and forecast the amount of orders for futures trading. Finally, investors make rational decisions by viewing all of these data. The study presented a new perspective on alternative investment in that ownership can be treated like a share. We also look forward to the simplification of food import procedures and the formation of trust within the wine industry by presenting a framework for wine-owned sales. In future studies, we would like to expand the framework to study the areas to be applied.

Survey of Unexpected Antibodies Identified at a General Hospital in Jeju (제주지역 일개 종합병원에서 동정된 비예기항체의 실태조사)

  • Chong, Moosang;Lee, Kyu-taeg;Cho, Young-Kuk
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.390-394
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    • 2017
  • Unexpected antibody screening and identification tests are highly important in the prevention of hemolytic transfusion reactions. Therefore, it is highly recommended to perform unexpected antibody screening test in all transfusion candidates. Here, the frequency and distribution of unexpected antibodies identified in Jeju for the past 3 years were evaluated. Between Jan 2014 and Dec 2016, unexpected antibody screening test was performed for 10,360 sera of transfusion candidates in Jeju general hospital using a column agglutination method with the Ortho BioVue system (Ortho-clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ, USA). Eighty-seven (0.84%) of 10,360 cases that underwent unexpected antibiotics screening showed positive results. Among them, unexpected antibodies were identified in 41 cases (0.40%). Unidentified antibodies were detected in 8 cases (19.51%) and autoantibodies were detected in 3 cases (7.32%). The anti-E antibody included in warm antibodies were detected most frequently in 8 cases (19.51%); 6 cases (14.63%) of anti-E + anti-c antibody and 3 cases (7.32%) of $anti-Le^a+anti-Le^b$. $Anti-Le^a$ and $anti-Le^b$ antibodies were detected in 2 cases (4.88%), respectively. The anti-D, $anti-Di^a$, $anti-Fy^b$, $anti-Jk^a$, $anti-Jk^b$, anti-M and anti-P1 were detected in 1 case (2.44%). Complex antibodies were detected in 1 case (2.44%) in anti-C+anti-D and anti-E+anti-c+$anti-Jk^b$, respectively. In this study, we analyzed the frequency and distribution of unexpected antibodies in one general hospital for the past 3 years. However, there has been a general increase in multicultural families and foreign workers in Jeju, and it would be a meaningful study to compare the frequency and distribution of unexpected antibodies.

The Association between Types of Smoking and Periodontal Disease according to the Survey Year Using the Fourth and Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (조사연도에 따른 흡연 유형과 치주질환의 관련성 분석: 제4기, 제5기 국민건강영양조사를 이용하여)

  • Kim, Myoung-Hee;Yoon, Mi-Sook;Lim, Youn-Hee;Lee, Sae-Rom;Kim, So-Yeon;Park, Seon-Ju;Shin, Sun-Jung
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2017
  • There is little evidence on the effects of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) on prevalence of periodontal disease. The aims of this study were to explore the trends of prevalence of periodontal disease and types of exposure to smoke, including ETS according to the survey year, identify factors affecting periodontal disease, and compare the effect size of periodontal disease between active smokers and secondhand smokers. Data on 11,643 individuals were obtained from the fourth and fifth Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Surveys. Information on exposure to ETS at home and work was self-reported. Severity of periodontal disease was evaluated using the community periodontal index. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to model periodontal disease using types of smoking and the survey year. Overall, the prevalence of periodontal disease was 26.0% (n=3,029) and about 9% of the study population were secondhand smokers. The prevalence of periodontal disease among smokers was significantly increased according to smoking types by year. Active smokers showed a statistically significant adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for having periodontal disease except in the year 2007, whereas secondhand smokers had significant associations only in 2010 (aOR, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.70) compared to non-smokers. For secondhand smokers, the statistical relationship of predicting periodontal disease was weaker than that of active smokers. However, ETS should separately be considered as an important risk factor for periodontal disease. This study suggested the need for further investigation of the impact of ETS on prevalence of periodontal disease using in-depth research designs and objective measurements for assessing periodontal disease and ETS.

Review on the impact of Arctic Amplification on winter cold surges over east Asia (북극 온난화 증폭이 겨울철 동아시아 한파 발생에 미치는 영향 고찰)

  • Seong-Joong Kim;Jeong-Hun Kim;Sang-Yoon Jun;Maeng-Ki Kim;Solji Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.33 no.1_2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2021
  • In response to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, the global mean temperature is rising rapidly. In particular, the warming of the Arctic is two to three times faster than the rest. Associated with the rapid Arctic warming, the sea ice shows decreasing trends in all seasons. The faster Arctic warming is due to ice-albedo feedback by the presence of snow and ice in polar regions, which have higher reflectivity than the ocean, the bare land, or vegetation, higher long-wave heat loss to space than lower latitudes by lower surface temperature in the Arctic than lower latitudes, different stability of atmosphere between the Arctic and lower latitudes, where low stability leads to larger heat losses to atmosphere from surface by larger latent heat fluxes than the Arctic, where high stability, especially in winter, prohibits losing heat to atmosphere, increase in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that subsequently act as green house gases, and finally due to the increase in sensible heat fluxes from low latitudes to the Arctic via lower troposphere. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in midlatitudes, especially in eastern Asia and eastern North America, cold air outbreaks occur more frequently and last longer in recent decades. Two pathways have been suggested to link the Arctic warming to cold air outbreaks over midlatitudes. The first is through troposphere in synoptic-scales by enhancing the Siberian high via a development of Rossby wave trains initiated from the Arctic, especially the Barents-Kara Seas. The second is via stratosphere by activating planetary waves to stratosphere and beyond, that leads to warming in the Arctic stratosphere and increase in geopotential height that subsequently weakens the polar vortex and results in cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes for several months. There exists lags between the Arctic warming and cold events in midlatitudes. Thus, understanding chain reactions from the Arctic warming to midlatitude cooling could help improve a predictability of seasonal winter weather in midlatitudes. This study reviews the results on the Arctic warming and its connection to midlatitudes and examines the trends in surface temperature and the Arctic sea ice.

Prognostic Value of the Expression of p53 and bcl-2 in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (비소세포폐암에서 p53과 bcl-2의 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Hee;Keum, Joo-Seob;Kong, Gu;Lee, Jung-Dal
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.962-974
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    • 1998
  • Background: Alteration of p53 tumor suppressor genes is most frequently identified in human neoplasms, including lung carcinoma. It is well known that bcl-2 oncoprotein protects cells from apoptosis. Recent studies have demonstrated that bcl-2 expression is associated with favorable prognosis for patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma. However, the precise biologic role of bcl-2 in the development of these tumors is still obscure. p53 and bcl-2 have important regulatory influence in the apoptotic pathway and thus their relationship is of interest in tumorigenesis, especially lung cancer. Purpose: The author investigated to know the prognostic significance of the expression of p53 and bcl-2 in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer. Method: 84 cases of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks from resected primary non-small cell lung cancer from 1980 to 1994 at Hanyang University Hospital were available for both clinical follow-up and immunohistochemical staining using monoclonal antibodies for p53 and bcl-2. Results : The histologic classification of the tumor was based on WHO criteria., and the specimens included 45 squamous cell carcinomas(53.6%), 28 adeonocarcinomas(33.3%) and 11 large cell carcinomas(13.1 %). p53 immunoreactivity was noted in 47 cases of 84 cases(56.0%). bcl-2 immunoreactivity was noted in 15 cases of 84 cases(17.9%). The mean survival duration was $64.23{\pm}10.73$ months in bcl-2 positive group and $35.28{\pm}4$. 39 months in bcl-2 negative group. The bcl-2 expression was significantly correlated with survival in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients(p=0.03). The mean survival duration was $34.71{\pm}6.12$ months in p53 positive group and $45.35{\pm}6.30$ months in p53 negative group(p=0.21). The p53 expression was not predictive for survival. There was no correlation between combination of the different status of p53 and bcl-2 expression in our study. Conclusions : The interaction and the regulation of new biologic markers, such as those involved in the apoptotic pathway, are complex. bcl-2 overexpression is a good prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer and p53 expression is not significantly associated with the prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer.

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