• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.801-825
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• 2017

본 연구는 과학기술분야 정부출연 연구기관의 자율성과 독립성을 보장하고, 연구기관 간의 협력과 유기적인 연결이라는 정책목표하에 1999년 이후 지금까지 그 목표달성을 위해 정책수단으로 존재하고 있는 연구회제도의 정책변동 사례를 대상으로 하고 있다. 과학기술 연구회는 김대중 정부이후 박근혜 정부까지 네 번의 정권교체기마다 변화과정을 거쳐왔다. 여기서는 그 사례에 Kingdon의 다중흐름모형을 이용하여 각 정부별 정책결정요인과 그 과정을 비교 분석했으며, 그 결과로서 Hogwood & Peters의 정책변동유형을 살펴보았다.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.1-36
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• 2019

In line with the international community's movement to reduce greenhouse gas emission, Korea implemented FIT(Feed in Tariff) in 2002 as part of its renewable energy development project. Although the policy had shifted to full-scale RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standards) in 2012, policymakers are still seeking changes due to policy ineffectiveness. While previous studies explain sudden policy changes through external factors, recent research sheds light on internal factors in the process of policy transition. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that are responsible for rapidly changing policies in latecomer nations. In order to find this, we look at the case of transition from the FIT to the RPS in Korea's expansion of renewable energy policy. As a result of the research, it is confirmed that the Top-Down decision making system of Korea and the external regulatory change cause rapid policy transition. By looking at these variables, we propose useful implications for policymakers to minimize the policy failure in future policy design and evolution.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.858-887
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• 2017

This study deals with the cases of policy changes of the research council system which exists since 1999 as a policy tool to achieve the goals for autonomy and independence of Government-funded Research Institutes (GRIs) in the field of science and technology and their cooperation and organic connection. The purpose of the study was to analyze through which process policies about the research council system have changed and whether they resulted in the successful achievements of the aimed policy goals, and to contribute to the effective policy implementation in the future. The Research Council System of Science and Technology has been undergoing a change for four government replacements (from Kim Dae-jung's Government to Park Geun-hye's Government). In this study, the major policy making factors and the policy change process of each government case are analyzed in comparison using Kingdon's multiple streams framework, as a result, their policy change type by the Hogwood and Peters's theory and the achievement of their policy goals of autonomy and responsibility were examined.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.222-235
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• 2019

Since Fukushima nuclear disaster occurred in 2011, the nuclear energy policy of the international society has been in recession. However, In Korea, the nuclear-friendly policy had remained and even expanded over the last 60 years until the Park Geun-hye government. In other words, there was the path dependence of nuclear energy policy. Since the Moon Jae-in government that pledged to perform nuclear phase-out policy in 2017 was inaugurated, the nuclear-friendly policy began to swerve from the course of path dependence. Based on the mai logic of historical institutionalism, this study looked into the change of Korean nuclear policy by before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident. As the result of this research, the external situation of Fukushima Nuclear Accident became a critical turning point and led to a change in the government's policy on nuclear power. From an institutional perspective, it influenced the paradigm of nuclear power policy, policy decision structure, and laws of nuclear power. From a doer's perspective, it influenced political idea and social acceptability. Since Moon Jae-in government was inaugurated in 2017, nuclear phase-out policy has secured its institutional foundation and nuclear power policy has basically changed from nuclear-friendly policy to nuclear phase-out policy. Therefore, the energy policy of Moon Jae-in government gets out of the nuclear power based path dependency that previous governments pursued, keeps punctuated equilibrium, and changes to renewable energy oriented policy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.37-52
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• 1993

우리나라에서는 70년대 중반 여후 공공요금관리(公共料金管理)가 물가정책의 주요수단으로 인식되어 왔으나, 다른 나라의 경험을 살펴보면 물가상승압력(物價上昇壓力)의 근본적인 해소가 전제되지 않는 가격규제정책(價格規制政策)은 유효한 물가대책(物價對策)이 아니라는 것이 보편적으로 인정되고 있다. 본고(本稿)의 분석(分析)에 의하면, 공공요금(公共料金)의 변동과 기타물가지수(소비자물가지수에서 공공요금 및 농축수산물지수를 제외한 것)의 변동간에는 장기적으로 같이 움직이는 공적분관계(共積分關係)가 존재한다. 그러나 일반의 인식과는 달리 공공요금의 변동이 기지물가변동(其地物價變動)을 초래하는 것이 아니라, 기타물가상승(其他物價上昇)이 공공요금상승을 유발하였던 것으로 나타났다. 이는 과거의 공공요금관리정책(公共料金管理政策)이 물가대책으로서의 유효성은 높지 않았음을 의미한다. 따라서 향후의 물가안정(物價安定)은 공공요금 등에 대한 직접적인 가격억제(價格抑制)보다는 경제전체의 물가상승압력(物價上昇壓力)을 완화시킬 수 있는 안정위주의 거시정책기조(巨視政策基調)를 통하여 이뤄 나가야 할 것이다.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.291-295
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• 2022

The transition to wartime operational control during the term of office, which was the promise of the Moon Jae Inn administration, fell through. More than 70 years after it was transferred during the Korean War in 1950, the policy of converting wartime operational control has been repeatedly decided and reversed several times. This conversion of wartime operational control is a national policy directly related to our security, and it is most important to understand the determinants of the administration's conversion to wartime operational control. This paper selects two cases of adjustment of wartime operational control policy during the Lee Myung Bak administration in 2006 and 2010 during the Roh Moo Hyun administration as the subject of the study and expects to gain not only policy predictive power but also successful policy execution at the time of the two administration' policy changes.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.25-30
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• 2005

경제정책과 관련하여 경제시계열을 작성하는 중요한 목적중 하나는 순환변동을 파악할 수 있는 정보를 제공하는 것이다. 그런데 월별 또는 분기별로 작성되는 경제시계열은 계절변동 및 불규칙변동으로 인해 순환변동 등 기조적 변화를 잘못 파악하기 쉽다. 경제시계열의 기조적 변화를 파악하기 위해서는 원래의 경제시계열에서 계절변동, 불규칙변동을 분해 후 제거해서 분석해야 한다. 이 논문에서는 웨이블렛(wavelet)을 이용하여 시계열을 분해하고 이를 통해 경제시계열의 순환변동 등을 구하고 분해 요소들을 따로 예측한 후 결합된 예측을 시도한다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

This paper has studied the monetary policy in Korea with a time varying VAR model using four key macroeconomic variables. First, inclusion of the exchange rate was a crucial factor in evaluating Korean monetary policy since the monetary policy demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate movements during the crisis periods of both the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, a specification of the stochastic volatilities in TVP-VAR model is important in explaining excessive movements of all variables in the sample. The overall moderation of variables in 2000s was more or less due to a reduction of the stochastic volatilities but also somewhat due to the macroeconomic fundamental structures captured by impulse response functons. Third, the degree of the monetary policy effectiveness of inflation was mitigated in recent periods but with increased persistence. Lastly, the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization has advanced ever since the inflation targeting scheme was adopted. However, there still seems to be a room for improvement in this aspect since the degree of the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization was relatively weaker than to output stabilization.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.3-44
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• 1994

본교(本橋)는 백터자기회귀모형(自己回歸模型)(VAR)에 비하여 작성과정이 까다롭고 복잡하지만 경제구조의 파악이 용이하고 경제체계내에 주어진 충격의 해석이 분명한 연립방정식(聯立聯立方程式) 구조모형(構造模型)을 사용하여 경기순환(景氣循環)의 원인을 밝히고자 하였다. 새로 작성된 경기순환모형(景氣循環模型)은 거시경제(巨視經濟) 분기모형(分期模型)으로서 추정기간은 1972년부터 1992년까지 21년으로 통계청(統計廳) 기준의 제1순환기부터 제5순환기까지 포함하고 있으며, 경기순환(景氣循環)의 원인분석을 위해서 가상적(假想的) 시뮬레이션(counter factual simulation) 기법을 사용하였다. 본고(本稿)는 향후 경기순환(景氣循環)의 안정(安定)을 도모하거 위해서 다음의 몇가지 결론을 내리고 있다. 첫째, 건설투자(建設投資)는 경기변동(景氣變動)의 진복(振福)을 확대(擴大)시켜 온 경향이 있기 때문에 경기부양(景氣浮揚) 및 경기진정(景氣鎭靜)을 위한 정책변수로 바람직하지 않다. 왜냐하면 정부가 경기변동(景氣變動)을 감지(感知)하기까지는 시간이 걸리며, 경기변동(景氣變動)의 체감 직후 건설투자(建設投資)를 통해서 경기부양(景氣浮揚) 혹은 경기진정(景氣鎭靜)을 이루고자 하더라도 정책수립부터 정책효과의 가시화(可視化)에까지 이르는 시차(時差)로 인하여 건설투자(建設投資)가 정부의 의도와는 반대로 경기순행적(景氣順行的)인 역할(役割)을 할 가능성이 있기 때문이다. 둘째, 통화(通貨)가 생산(生産) 및 물가변동(物價變動)에 미치는 영향은 서로 상충관계(相衝關係)(trade-off) 에 있는 것으로 보이기 때문에 정부는 민간신용(民間信用) 등 통화변수(通貨變數)를 경기조절수단(景氣調節手段)으로 사용할 경우에는 사전에 정책효과(政策效果)를 충분히 고려해서 시행해야 할 것이다. 셋째 해외도매물가(海外都賣物價), 원유도입가격(原油導入價格) 및 국제상품가격(國際商品價格) 등 해외물가변수(海外物價變數)의 변동은 GNP는 물론이고 큰 폭의 물가변동(物價變動)을 초래하기 때문에, 해외부문(海外部門)의 충격에 따른 경기변동(景氣變動)을 안정시키기 위해서 정부는 유가자유화(油價自由化)를 통한 유류가격안정(油類價格安定)및 원유비양수준(原油備養水準)의 제고(提高), 해외원자재(海外原資材) 수입선(輸入先)의 다변화 등을 통하여 해외물가충격(海外物價衝擊)이 국내경제에 미치는 영향을 최소화하도록 노력해야 할 것이다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.234-246
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• 2013

Microcredit was first introduced by non-profit organization in early 2000s and the Ministry of Health and Welfare promoted the support policy of self-support community and the hope-developing bank. And then, microcredit policy was suddenly changed while the microfinance policy was promoted in 2009. For example, there were changes of the control tower of the policy, the emphasis on financial approach from welfare approach, the establishment of the operation agency. This study analyzed the policy changes on microcredit policy using the framework of Hood(1994) and Joo(1999) in order to analyze causes of sudden changes. As results, the reason affecting microcredit policy change was changes of an unemployment rate and the financial environment, the change of outside situation, the policy idea of the middle practicalism of government and the success of the experiment in microcredit, the passive intervention of stakeholders, the internal factors on the policy custom. So the results suggests that the policy is produced illogically because of the absence of stakeholders' participation.