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Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

A Comparative Analysis over News Framing of the Abolition of the Family Headship (Hoju) System: Examining Three Major Korean Dailies: Chosun, Kukmin, Hankyoreh (호주제 폐지에 대한 뉴스 프레이밍 비교 연구: 조선일보, 국민일보, 한겨레신문을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Min-Kyu;Kim, Su-Jeong
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.34
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    • pp.132-160
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    • 2006
  • The main purpose of this study is based on the comparative analysis over news framing of the family headship(Hoju) abolition in Korean society. This study examined the newspaper articles involving the Hoju abolition, which had been printed on the three major dailies, Chosun, Kukmin, Hankyoreh through February of 1990 to July of 2005. First, the news articles were analyzed and classified on the basis of their lengths, news types, main characters, news framing and systematic framing. Second, the articles that this study looked into were divided into the five major periods when the issue of the Hoju abolition in Korean society surfaced as a main social agenda to be discussed. Third, the main differences between the noticeable frame and unnoticeable frame in each period were analyzed through the three different perspectives which can also can be sub-divided into the six different attributes. This study found that the Hoju abolition as an attribute had developed into political, legal and social fields. The analysis of the research shows that the articles related to the patriarchy abolition showed more dominant frame which reflected the social change or the general tendency of the times. However, the analysis indicates that the articles in the level of an attribute included more dominant frame which mirrored a male chauvinism society. It also points out that the articles contained more dominant frame which was be used as a standard to find out the readers' political inclination. The articles also showed the dominant frame which included the revision and legal process of family laws before presidential or general election campaigns. The study also found that there were major differences among the three dailies. First of all, Chosun, regarded the Hoju as a custom by stressing that 'it is necessary to keep Hoju system to intensify the role and crisis of family if the Hoju will be abolished'. However, Hankyoreh recognized the issue as an important one to improve feminism and female rights by maintaining that 'it is the time to balance the inequality out between men and women with the abolition of patriarchy'. Finally, Kukmin treated the issue as an first step to acknowledge the dignity of females by emphasizing that 'a revision of the law is essential to accept the changing ethics of the times'.

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A Study on the Liability for Third Party's Damage on the Time Charter-parties (정기용선계약에서 제3자 화물손해 책임에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hak-Sung
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.285-313
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    • 2013
  • By the revision of the Commercial Code of Korea in 1991 and 2007, some provisions for the regulation of Time Charterparty have been introduced into our own maritime law system. But, those provisions are in their nature mainly the reproduction of the provisions prescribed in the standard forms of time charterparty which are widely used, such as BALTIME Charter and NYPE Form, and the subject matters of their regulation are restrictive, so that the applicability of the provisions is not desirable. The cargo is lost or damaged, the cargo owner should seek compensation form, or sue, the carrier as, traditionally, under the COGSA, the cargo carrier is responsible for loss of damage of cargo. However, it is difficult to determine who is the responsible carrier under charters. There is no test to determine the carrier, but the courts in every country generally consider the bill of lading. Although the master has general authority to sign bills of lading on behalf of the shipowner, he can also sign bills of lading for, and on behalf of, the charterer. In this case, the charter is considered the carrier. Furthermore, the charterer is authorized to contract with third parties on behalf of the shipowner and, as such, the responsible carrier is the shipowner. Therefore, when determining the carrier we should examine carefully the all factors and the circumstances surrounding the case. Also, negligence of a captain of a time-chartered ship causing damages to a third party. It will analyze the legal character of a time-charter contract, review judicial precedents on time-charter. The Inter-Club Agreement was drawn up and is intended to be a somewhat easier way of allocating liability for cargo claims between owners and charterers and, although there is still scope for disputes to arise, the Inter-Club Agreement does in fact to some extent make the allocation of liabilities for cargo claims easier. Finally, it will also make legislative suggestions to resolve complex issues involving maritime transportation contracts under the current Commercial Code.

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Searching for the SCM Improvement Directions through the Power Attribute and Partnership (파워 유형과 파트너십 연계를 통한 공급사슬관리 개선방안 모색)

  • Jung, Dae-Hyun;Park, Kwang-O
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.57-79
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    • 2016
  • It is required to derive various conclusions by identifying the type of power and the relationship between SCMs and presenting practical implications. Thus, we can identify the differential effects of each type of power on SCM performance. We can contribute to develop the practical implications at more sophisticated multi-dimension by comparing results of this study with various SCM theories. Through previous studies, the source of power is largely divided into binding power and non-binding power. Binding power is classified into behavior coercion, binding reward and relationship legitimacy. Non-binding power is classified into work expertise, information superiority and value compliance. Enterprises should fully understand and recognize partners within supply chains including understanding of the source of power, imbalance and results. Thus, we look into types of power and effects on trust and commitment, and identify a causal relationship leading to collaboration and SCM performance. Specific research results are as follows. First, the binding power did not give a significant effect to the trust. However, the binding power gave a positively(+) significant effect to the commitment. Second, non-binding power showed a significant effect on both trust and commitment. As a result of analysis on total effects, it was shown that non-binding power gave indirect effects to collaboration and SCM performance. Third, it was shown that both trust and commitment significantly affected collaboration. From the perspectives of social exchange theory and trading cost theory among inter-organizational relationship theory, it may lead to SCM performance of trust, commitment and collaboration. Moreover, it was found that association of each attribute of power led to the significant result. Fourth, it was shown that trust and collaboration significantly affected SCM performance. However, commitment did not directly affect SCM performance, but it indirectly significantly affected SCM performance through collaboration. Proper use of this power can firmly build partnerships between members of the supply chain and induce the improvement on supply chain performance and satisfaction of members.

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A Study on the legal position of the carrier under the right of stoppage in transit of CISG (국제물품매매계약(CISG)의 운송유보권 하에서 운송인의 법적지위에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Jaewook
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.159-182
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    • 2014
  • CISG Article 71 (1) states that a party may suspend the performance of his obligations if, after the conclusion of the contract, it becomes apparent that the other party will net perform a substantial part of his obligations as a result of a serious deficiency in his ability to perform or in his creditworthiness or his conduct in preparing to perform or in perfoming the contract. CISG Article 71 (2) states a 'right of stoppage in transit' that if the seller has already dispatched the goods before the grounds described in the preceding paragraph become evident, he may prevent the handing over of the goods to the buyer even though the buyer holds a document which entitles him to obtain them. The present paragraph relates only to the rights in the goods as between the buyer and the seller. Under the right of stoppage in transit, the carrier copes with risks that the seller may claim damages arose from the handing over the goods, if he hand over the goods to the buyer and that the buyer may claim damages, if he deny handing over the goods to the buyer who has the document which entitles him to obtain the goods. Therefore the legal position of the carrier may become weak. This paper purpose to point out the legal weakness of the carrier under the right of stoppage in transit and to provide the proper legal act of the carrier and possible practice related to various characters of the contract of sale of the goods. Although there is the opinion it prevent from handing over the goods to the buyer actually under the interpretation that the buyer should take claim damages to the seller, if the goods are handed over to the buyer under the right of stoppage in transit, it is not appropriate because the opinion may disable the right of stoppage in transit. The right of stoppage in transit could be carried out under any payment conditions except letter of credit and under any mode of transportation except the cases that carrier is the buyer himself or the agent of the buyer. It could be executed regardless the forms of the transport document.

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A Study on Business Diversification and Business Performance of Korean Mass Media Enterprises (국내 매스미디어 기업의 사업다각화와 경영성과에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Yun-Hi
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.43
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    • pp.173-208
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    • 2008
  • This study analyses the business performance according to the business diversification of Korean mass media enterprises from year 2003 to 2006. The conclusions drawn which could be divided into five main parts are the followings: First, newspaper companies pursue unrelated diversification in various industrial areas, in order to gain maximum profit while broadcasting companies exert themselves to provide better service by diversifying the major contents. Second, overall the interviewed companies display a constant decline in profit gained from their major business area thus establishing strategies to broaden their focus on diversification of any sort. Third, the researcher completed group analysis in regard of diversification measure resulting in division of three groups. The group which had the most immense diversification range gained the highest ROE, the lowest ROE volatility, and lesser probability of risk taking. The analysis adresses the companies broadening their business areas by researching and focusing on diversification are relatively stable in terms of the profit they gain. Fourth, the middle level group in terms of sales scale, debts, enterprise history, major share rate and high ROE group carry out diversification progressively. The sales scale affects positively to diversification, while the major share rate affects negatively to diversification. Fifth, in accordance to the research, diversification overall contributes to obtainance of successful outcome. Since there was not an immense amount of studies to be referred in the media area, the researcher interviewed and did panel discussion with numerous strategists and managers who are in charge of diversification of media companies. However, collection of only 4 years of data limits the research to be considered to be a generalized study, and does not reflect time gap between business diversification and business performance. Development is required in future studies to be established regarding the media companies' specificity different to other industries, classified the media companies into media types, and consider the time gap in the diversification activities and business performance.

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The Study about Role and Importance of Site Activity Stage in Safety Activity for the International Conference among Several Countries (다자간 국제회의 안전활동에 있어서 현장활동단계의 역할 및 중요성에 관한 연구 : 부산 APEC 행사를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sun-Ki
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.19
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • This study's purpose is to present the improvement of effectiveness of security activity for international conference among Several Countries which can be held hereafter. On the basis of security activity problems originating in APEC that had been held in Busan in 2005. I made up questions three times to on the members of the police, military, fire figher and national intelligence service who had experienced in Busan APEC and recognition of possible problem and possibility of improvement on each item of questions was analyzed by Delphi Method. Also interviews with 4 security experts selected from each security agency were conducted to present improvement in each part of problem. The results obtained from the face to face interview with four experts of security-enforcement agency about the role and importance of site activity stage for international conference among several countries are as followings ; First, the system that experienced security-enforcement agents can be selected for the next national security event is needed, by data-basing the security-enforcement agents who were experienced in security event as man power management. Second, the middle-term plan for the introduction of high-tech equipment and joint inspection with relevant security agents are needed for the efficient explosive technical detection. Third, high-tech security equipment could be introduced through the international high-tech security equipment exhibition. Fourth, an anti-terrorism plan should be measured by sharing information through the cooperation with domestic and international intelligence agency. Fifth, public relations should be measured systematically by organization rather than agents' individual public relations. Sixth, political consideration to secure integrative coordination with other agency is needed for security activity, through normal cooperation with fire fighting related agency such as an electric, gas, elevator company. Seventh, a definite press guideline is needed for a convenient news coverage and safety during security event.

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A Study on the Retransmission Consent and Arbitration for the Retransmission of Terrestrial Broadcasting Signal in Japan (지상파채널의 재전송 동의와 중재 기준에 관한 연구 - 일본의 사례분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hwan
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.48
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    • pp.46-62
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    • 2009
  • The current study attempted to review the standards of retransmisison consent and arbitration for the terrestrial broadcasting signal. The standards are based upon the principles encouraged by the MIAC(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). It has been criticized that the standards of judgement for the retransimission consent and arbitration are ambiguous and arbitrary in Japan. In 2009, MIAC announced five decisions regarding the retransmission of over-the-air. The result of the current study found that the regulations of compulsory over-the-air signal retransmission have been sustained until now. The retransmission policy of the Japan government based upon three principles; localism, proper cause and copyright act. The judgment is dependent on the intrepretation of MIAC's standard about these three principles.

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한국 표준시 제도의 타당성에 관한 연구

  • Hong, Seong-Gil;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2002.06a
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    • pp.5-8
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    • 2002
  • 현재 우리 나라가 사용하고 있는 표준시는 I-시간이다. 이 표준시 사용에 대해 일부 이견이 있어, 우리 나라의 표준시 제도를 확립하기 위해 세계 각국의 표준시의 운용 상황을 분석 검토함으로서 우리나라는 현재 사용 중인 I-시간을 계속적으로 사용하는 것이 타당한 것으로 다음과 같은 결론을 얻을 수 있었다. 1) 세계에서 복수 표준시를 운용하고 있는 나라(러시아 등 9개국)는, 표준시 적용 지역을 태양시에 정확하게 맞추어 결정할 수 있을 것임에도, 3개국만 표준시가 태양시에 거의 일치할 뿐 나머지 6개국은 모두 태양시보다 표준시를 앞세워 적용하고 있다. 2) 세계 15대 대 영토국 중 단일표준시를 운용하고 있는 나라(중국 등 6개국) 중에서 3개국이 대체로 표준시가 태양시에 일치할 뿐이고, 나머지 3개국은 표준시를 태양시보다 $1{\sim}2$시간 이상이나 앞세워 적용하고 있다. 3) 전 세계의 145개 주요 단일 표준시 사용국 중 약 5%(중동의 지중해 연안국들과 동유럽의 일부 국가들) 정도에서 표준시를 태양시보다 30분 정도 늦춰 적용할 뿐이고, 태양시와 비슷하게 운용하는 나라는 약 56%, 표준시를 30분 이상 앞세워 적용하고 있는 나라는 약 39% 정도로서 대체로 태양시보다 빠른 표준시를 긍정적으로 받아들이고 있다. 4) 캐나다와 미국의 경우는 각 주에서 정한 표준시와는 다르게 운영하고 있는 지방들이 있는데, 이들 모두가 지리적인 위치로 보아 태양시보다 표준시가 어느 정도 빠르게 운영되도록 조정한 경우들이다. 5) 세계에서 UTC와 비 정수 시간차의 표준시를 운용하는 지역과 국가는 7개소 정도이다. 이들 중 표준시를 태양시에 맞추어 설정한 경우가 6개소이고, 지리적인 위치로 보아 표준시와 태양시가 일치할 수 있는데도 표준시를 30분 정도를 빠르게 운용하기 위해 조정한 경우가 1개소이다. 6) 세계에서 서머타임을 적용하고 있는 최저위도 국가는 북반구에서는 북회귀선에 걸쳐 있는 Mexico와 Cuba, 남반구에서는 Brazil의 남회귀선에 걸쳐 있는 남반부인데 이들은 모두 태양시와 일치하는 표준시를 운용하는 나라들이다. 한편 서머타임을 적용하고 있지 않는 최고위도 국가는 북반구에서는 Iceland, 남반구에서는 Argentina인데, 이 두 나라는 모두 이미 표준시를 태양시보다 1시간 이상 빠르게 적용하고 있는 나라들이다. 7) 복수 표준시간을 운용하고 있는 Canada와 미국에서는 국가적으로는 서머타임을 운용하고 있는데도 서머타임을 운용하고 있지 않는 주가 Canada에는 1개주, 미국에는 3개 주가 있는데, 이들은 모두 표준시가 태양시보다 30분${\sim}$1시간 정도 빠르게 적용되고 있는 곳이다. 8) 세계의 많은 나라가 표준시를 태양시보다 30분${\sim}$1시간 또는 그 이상까지도 빠르게 적용하고 있다는 사실, 그리고 세계의 많은 나라에서 서머타임을 시행하고 있다는 사실을 보면 태양시보다 표준시를 어느 정도 빠르게 적용해 생활하는 것은 인간 생체리듬에 악영향을 미치지 않으면서 오히려 시간 이용을 효율화하는 장점이 있는 것으로 판단된다. 9) 현재 우리나라는 경도 $135^{\circ}E$를 기준으로 하는 I-시간을 사용하고 있으면서 I-시간대역의 서쪽경계에 위치하여 태양시보다 표준시가 30분 정도 빠르다. 이는 한국인의 생체리듬에 결코 나쁜 영향을 주지 않으며, 오히려 시간을 효율적으로 사용할 수 있는 장점으로 작용하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 아울러 여름철에 일광절약시간(서머타임)제의 필요성을 완화시켜줌으로서 표준시를 안정적으로 운용하는데 크게 기여하고 있다. 이는 표준시를 UTC와 정수시간차를 유지하면서 안정적으로 운영하려는 세계 각국의 표준시 운영 경향과도 일치하고 있다. 10) 우리나라가 사용하는 I-시간이 우리에게 이상과 같은 장점을 가지고 있음에도 불구하고 이 I-시간이 일제의 잔재라거나 또한 한국인의 생체리듬에 해롭다는 이유를 들어 우리 나라의 표준시를 경도 $127.5^{\circ}W$ 기준의 H'시간으로 변경시킨다면UTC와의 8시간 30분차 시간을 운영하게 됨으로서 국제화 시대를 사는데 큰 불편을 초래할 뿐만 아니라, 추가적으로 서머타임제를 도입하게 되는 등 커다란 부작용을 겪게 될 것이다.

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A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.