• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전지구자료

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Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 GCMs for Various Climatic Elements and Indicators over the Southeast US (다양한 기후요소와 지표에 대한 CMIP5 GCMs 모델 성능 평가 -미국 남동부 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.1039-1050
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    • 2014
  • The goal of this study is to demonstrate the diversity of model performance for various climatic elements and indicators. We evaluated the skills of the most advanced 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) i.e., CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology from 1950 to 2000 over the Southeast US for the key climatic elements important in the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and wind speed). The biases of raw CMIP5 GCMs were estimated for 16 different climatic indicators that imply mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc. using a grid-based observational dataset as reference. Based on the error (RMSE) and correlation (R) of GCM outputs, the error-based GCM ranks were assigned on average over the indicators. Overall, the GCMs showed much better accuracy in representing mean climatology of temperature comparing to other elements whereas few GCM showed acceptable skills for precipitation. It was also found that the model skills and ranks would be substantially different by the climatic elements, error statistics applied for evaluation, and indicators as well. This study presents significance of GCM uncertainty and the needs of considering rational strategies for climate model evaluation and selection.

Development and assessment of framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics (아시아 몬순특성을 고려한 다중 GCMs 선정방법 개발 및 평가)

  • Kim, Jeong-Bae;Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.647-660
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    • 2020
  • The objectives of this study are to develop a framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics and assess it's applicability. 12 climate variables related to monsoon climates are selected for GCM selection. The framework for selecting multi-GCMs includes the evaluation matrix of GCM performance based on their capability to simulate historical climate features. The climatological patterns of 12 variables derived from individual GCM over the summer monsoon season during the past period (1976-2005) and they are compared against observations to evaluate GCM performance. For objective evaluation, a rigorous scoring rule is implemented by comparing the GCM performance based on the results of statistics between historical simulation derived from individual GCM and observations. Finally, appropriate 5 GCMs (NorESM1-M, bcc-csm1-m, CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CMS, and CanESM2) are selected in consideration of the ranking of GCM and precipitation performance of each GCM. The selected 5 GCMs are compared with the historical observations in terms of monsoon season and monthly mean to validate their applicability. The 5 GCMs well capture the observational climate characteristics of Asia for the 12 climate variables also they reduce the bias between the entire GCM simulations and the observational data. This study demonstrates that it is necessary to consider various climate variables for GCM selection and, the method introduced in this study can be used to select more reliable climate change scenarios for climate change assessment in the Asia region.

Seafloor Morphology and Surface Sediment Distribution of the Southwestern Part of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea (동해 울릉분지 남서부 해저지형 및 표층퇴적물 분포)

  • Koo, Bon-Young;Kim, Seong-Pil;Lee, Gwang-Soo;Chung, Gong Soo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.131-146
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    • 2014
  • Multi-beam echosounder data and grain size analysis data of surface sediment were acquired and analyzed in order to investigate the shelf-to-slope morphology, geological character, and their geological controlling factors in the southwestern margin of the Ulleung Basin. According to the morphological character, the continental shelf can be divided into two parts: (1) shallow (~100 m) and steep ($0.5^{\circ}$) inner shelf, (2) deep (100-300 m) and gentle ($0.2^{\circ}$) outer shelf. The continental slope is featured with eight distinct topographic depressions of various spatial dimension (~121 $km^2$ in area) and head wall gradient (${\sim}24.3^{\circ}$). They are developed adjacent to each other and presumably formed by submarine landslides which have recurred under the strong influences of earthquakes and eustatic sea-level change. The inner continental shelf and the continental slope are dominated by fine-grained sediment, whereas the outer continental shelf is dominated by coarse-grained sediment. The surface sediment distribution seems dominantly influenced by eustatic sea-level change. The outer continental shelf is mostly covered by coarse relict sediment deposited during lowstand sea-level, while the inner shelf is covered with recent sediment during highstand sea-level. The surface of the continental slope is covered with fine-grained sediments which were supplied by hemipelagic advection process.

Case study for effective water cycle system design (효율적 물순환시스템 구축을 위한 선진 설계사례 조사)

  • Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Dong-Jin;Kim, Ji-Hun;Yu, Dong-Bae;Koo, Bon-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.320-320
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    • 2012
  • 수문학적 의미의 일반적인 물순환은 증발, 응결, 강수 등 태양에너지와 중력에 의해 전지구적으로 반복되는 물의 재생산과정을 의미한다. 최근 들어 토목분야에서 언급되기 시작한 물순환시스템은 수문학적인 물수지(water balance)에 저류, 공급, 처리, 재이용 등 인공적인 요소를 감안하여 대상지역의 적절한 수요, 공급을 유지하는 시스템을 의미한다. 생활에서 물이 차지하는 중요성을 감안할 때, 지역의 수문학적 특성과 문화, 경제적 여건을 고려한 효율적인 물순환시스템의 구축은 지역발전의 정도를 가늠할 수 있는 지표라 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 물산업 선진국인 영국과 미국의 지역 물순환시스템 설계사례를 조사하고 초기단계인 국내사례와 비교하여 향후 설계지침 개발의 기초자료로 활용하기 위하여 수행되었다. 선진사례 조사는 2009년 이후 미국과 영국에서 수행된 세 건의 물순환 현황조사(water cycle study)와 미국에서 개발된 설계최적화 프로그램을 분석하였고, 국내사례로는 파주운정지구와 광교신도시 개발 시 수행된 물순환시스템 구축사례를 조사하였다. 해외 선진국 사례조사 결과, 물순환시스템 구축은 공통적으로 물순환망 현황조사, 물순환 계획수립, 지역현황 조사, 적용가능 기술조사, 설계 등 5단계를 거쳐 수행되었다. 이 중 가장 중요한 단계는 지역의 물수지와 가용 물 수요 및 공급 시스템을 조사하는 물순환망 현황조사로, 지역의 needs를 정확히 파악하고 양적, 질적 공급목표를 적절하게 선정하여 가장 효율적인 물순환망 계획을 수립하는 바탕이 되었다. 지역현황은 지역 법규 및 투자계획, 사회변화 예측 등 사회적 요소를 고려하는 단계로, 물순환 설계 선진사의 설계 최적화 프로그램의 경우 이러한 지역현황과 사회적 변화 예측의 반영에서 차별성을 갖고 있었다. 적용가능 기술조사의 경우 친환경, 저에너지 기술이 부각되던 추세에서 최근에는 지속가능성이 주요 고려사항 이었다. 국내사업 사례의 경우 규모가 작아 직접적인 비교가 불가하였으나, 5단계의 복잡한 최적화단계가 아닌 물순환망 분석결과와 이해당사자(stakeholders)의 needs를 바탕으로 치수안정성, 친수환경 보장 등의 목표를 수립하였다. 국내에서도 향 후 유역규모(watershed scale)의 대형 물순환기반 복합개발사업이나 대규모 해외사업 참여 시 필요한 기술력 축적의 차원에서 단계별 check list를 포함한 한차원 높은 물순환 설계지침 마련이 필요한 시점이라 하겠다.

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A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea (용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Daeha;Kim, Eunhee;Lee, Seung Cheol;Kim, Eunji;Shin, June
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2022
  • Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.

Leaf gas exchange of Hibiscus hamabo and soil respiration in its habitats on Jeju Island (제주도 황근(Hibiscus hamabo) 잎의 기체 교환과 자생지에서의 토양호흡)

  • Yoojin Choi;Gwang-Jung Kim;Jeongmin Lee;Hyung-Sub Kim;Yowhan Son
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.439-446
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    • 2023
  • Mangroves are distributed in intertidal zones of coastal environments or estuarine margins, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle. However, understanding of the carbon cycle role of mangrove associates in the Republic of Korea is still limited. This research measured soil respiration and leaf gas exchange in three habitats of Hibiscus hamabo(Gimnyeong, Seongsan, and Wimi) and analyzed the impacts on sites and months. Soil respiration was measured once a month from June to October 2022 and leaf gas exchange was measured monthly from June to September 2022. Soil respiration in August(5.7±0.8 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) was significantly higher than that in other months (p<0.001) and soil respiration increased as air temperature increased (p<0.001). In Seongsan, net photosynthesis in July(9.0±0.9μmol m-2 s-1) was significantly higher than that in other months (p<0.001). Net photosynthesis increased as stomatal conductance and transpiration rate increased during the entire period(p<0.001). Furthermore, a weak positive linear relationship was observed between soil respiration and net photosynthesis (r2=0.12; p<0.01). The results indicated that soil respiration was influenced not only by air temperature and season but also by net photosynthesis. This study is expected to provide basic information on the carbon dynamics of mangrove associates.

Microbial Risk Assessment in Treated Wastewater Irrigation on Paddy Rice Plot (하수처리수를 관개한 후 벼재배 시험구에 대한 미생물 위해성 평가)

  • Jung, Kwang-Wook;An, Youn-Joo;Jang, Jae-Ho;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.2 s.112
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2005
  • The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.

Studies on the Occurrence of Upland Weeds and the Competition with Soybeans (전지(田地)와 콩밭에 있어서 잡초(雜草)의 발생(發生) 및 경합(競合)에 관한 조사(調査) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Key-Hong;Lee, Eun-Woong
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.75-113
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    • 1982
  • Studies were carried out 1) to define the shape and size of sampling quadrat and its number of observations for weed experiments, 2) to characterize the growth and community of major summer weeds under upland condition and 3) to investigate the factors influencing competition between weeds and soybeans under weed-free and weedy conditions in early and late season cultures. No significant difference was noted among different shapes of quadrat (regular, rectangular, band, and circular) in the sampling efficiency of weeds. The results also suggested that the minimum size of quadrat was 0.25$m^2$ and the minimum number of replication was 2 times per plot. The major dominant weeds were about 10 species in the experimental field and the total number of weeds was in the range of 70 - 1,600 plants per $m^2$. Among the weeds Digitaria sanguinalis and Portulaca oleracea were the most dominant species. Growth amount and reproduction capability were also measured by weed species. Five different weed communities were identified in the field. The degree of dispersion by weed species and association among weeds were investigated. Intra-(within soybeans) and inter-specific (between soybeans and weeds) competition were studied in early and late season cultures of soybeans. The average yield of soybeans per plant was significantly decreased in both season cultures due to intra-specific competition as the planting density of soybeans increased, On the other hand, the average yield of soybeans per l0a was proportionally increased to the increase of planting density and the rate of its increase was more significant under weedy than weed-free condition. Most of the agronomic characteristics of soybeans were affected by weeds and its degree was greater in sparse planting than in dense planting and in early season than in late-season culture. Digitaria sanguinalis was the most competitive to soybeans in early season and both of Digitaria sanguinalis and Portulaca oleracea affected primarily the growth of soybeans in late season with about the same competitiveness. The occurrence of weeds was significantly decreased in early season and slightly decreased in late-season by dense planting of soybeans. The total growth amount of weeds was also considerably decreased by increase of soybean planting density both in early- and late-season cultures. The occurrence of Digitaria sanguinalis which was the most dominant in both seasons, and its growth amount was significantly decreased as the planting density of soybean was increased. On the other hand, the occurrence of Portulaca oleracea which was only dominant in late-season culture did not show significant response to the planting density of soybeans.

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Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model (RCP 시나리오 및 전지구 수문 모형을 활용한 아시아 미래 수문인자 예측)

  • Kim, Dawun;Kim, Daeun;Kang, Seok-koo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.551-563
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    • 2016
  • According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

1-month Prediction on Rice Harvest Date in South Korea Based on Dynamically Downscaled Temperature (역학적 규모축소 기온을 이용한 남한지역 벼 수확일 1개월 예측)

  • Jina Hur;Eun-Soon Im;Subin Ha;Yong-Seok Kim;Eung-Sup Kim;Joonlee Lee;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.