• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전염병 예측

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A Study on the Smart Elderly Support System in response to the New Virus Disease (신종 바이러스에 대응하는 스마트 고령자지원 시스템의 연구)

  • Myeon-Gyun Cho
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2023
  • Recently, novel viral infections such as COVID-19 have spread and pose a serious public health problem. In particular, these diseases have a fatal effect on the elderly, threatening life and causing serious social and economic losses. Accordingly, applications such as telemedicine, healthcare, and disease prevention using the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) have been introduced in many industries to improve disease detection, monitoring, and quarantine performance. However, since existing technologies are not applied quickly and comprehensively to the sudden emergence of infectious diseases, they have not been able to prevent large-scale infection and the nationwide spread of infectious diseases in society. Therefore, in this paper, we try to predict the spread of infection by collecting various infection information with regional limitations through a virus disease information collector and performing AI analysis and severity matching through an AI broker. Finally, through the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, danger alerts are issued to the elderly, messages are sent to block the spread, and information on evacuation from infected areas is quickly provided. A realistic elderly support system compares the location information of the elderly with the information of the infected area and provides an intuitive danger area (infected area) avoidance function with an augmented reality-based smartphone application. When the elderly visit an infected area is confirmed, quarantine management services are provided automatically. In the future, the proposed system can be used as a method of preventing a crushing accident due to sudden crowd concentration in advance by identifying the location-based user density.

A New Horizon of Understanding of the Faith Community Based on the Concept of Immunity between Ecclesia and Esposito (에클레시아와 에스포지토의 면역 개념에 입각한 신앙공동체 이해의 새 지평)

  • Yang, Seung-Joon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.62
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    • pp.161-186
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted with the aim of opening a new horizon in understanding the church, which is a community of faith, in the context of losing social credibility with selfishness and closedness, and spreading social distance due to the epidemic. First, the concept and meaning of 'Ecclesia', a representative term for the church, was studied historically, biblically, and theologically, and Paul's intention was frequently used. Second, we explored the new horizons of the community of faith through a discussion of Roberto Esposito's Communitas and Immunitas, which unraveled the relationship between community and individual with an immunological concept. Not only dis lose social trust for a variety of reasons, but it has been pointed out as a target of social distancing due to the spread of the epidemic virus and is facing a crisis of weakening or loss of the faith community of the "church". Since the second epidemic has been predicted since Covid-19, the partial loss of daily life and the weakening and loss of meeting worship and fellowship in the church are inevitable. The church in the future needs to transform and build a true community of faith that understands the concept of immunity and can lead the transformation of society while revealing the spirit and life scent of Jesus Christ. To this end, innovation and practice of the paradigm of the community of faith appropriate to the rapidly changing times and situations is required. In Chapter 1 of this paper, we propose innovation by pointing out the problems of the church and the faith community, which have lost social credibility, and which are the objects of social distance, with selfishness and closedness. Chapter 2 studies and analyzes the 'Ecclesia' used in ancient Greek to transform the paradigm of the faith community, and identifies the intention of the apostle Paul to apply the 'Ecclesia' to the church's faith community. Chapter 3-4 discusses the concept of immunity, summarizes the reinterpretation of Esposito, who looked at the relationship between the individual and the community through the concept of positive immunity beyond negative immunity. And It draws application points for transforming the faith community of various communities, individuals, and churches. In conclusion, Chapter 5 restores precious gatherings and participation that are weakened and lost through the meaning of 'Ecclesia' and suggests expansion to higher level public gatherings and democratic participation. In addition, based on the reinterpretation of the concept of immunity, we present unity in diversity and diversity in unity as alternatives to the church and community of faith.

Animal Infectious Diseases Prevention through Big Data and Deep Learning (빅데이터와 딥러닝을 활용한 동물 감염병 확산 차단)

  • Kim, Sung Hyun;Choi, Joon Ki;Kim, Jae Seok;Jang, Ah Reum;Lee, Jae Ho;Cha, Kyung Jin;Lee, Sang Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2018
  • Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

A Study on the Establishment of Industrial Security Education Programs in Korea (한국 산업보안교육 프로그램의 정립에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Sun-Tae;Yu, Hyeong-Chang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.25
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    • pp.185-208
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    • 2010
  • This study is to suggest the current security education programs and improvement of industrial security curriculums in Korea. We live in a world of insecurity; the world is changing at an ever accelerating pace. Life, society, economics, international relations, and security risk are becoming more and more complex. The nature of work, travel, recreation, and communication is radically changing. We live in a world where, seemingly with each passing year, the past is less and less's guide to the future. Security is involved in on one way or another in virtually every decision we make and every activity we undertake. The global environment has never been more volatile, and societal expectations for industrial security and increasing if anything. The complexities of globalization, public expectation, regulatory requirements, transnational issues, jurisdictional risks, crime, terrorism, advances in information technology, cyber attacks, and pandemics have created a security risk environment that has never been more challenging. We had to educate industrial security professional to cope with new security risk. But, how relevant is a college education to the security professional? A college degree will not guarantee a job or advancement opportunities. But, with a college and professional training, a person has improved chances for obtaining a favored position. Commonly, Security education and experience are top considerations to find a job so far, also training is important. Today, Security is good source to gain competitive advantage in global business. The future of security education is prospect when one considers the growth evident in the field. Modern people are very security-conscious today, so now we had to set up close relevant industrial security programs to cope with new security risk being offered in colleges or several security professional educational courses.

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Development of Modeling to Find the Hub Nodes on Growing Scale-free Network based on Stochastic Community Bridge Node Finder (확장하는 Scale-free 네트워크에서의 허브노드 도출을 위한 Stochastic Community Bridge Node Finder 개발)

  • Eun, Sang-Kyu;Kim, Soo-Jin;Bae, Seung-Jong;Kim, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • The community bridge node finder, based on the stochastic method of network analysis, can compute hubs spot, which would enable the use of network structures with limited information. However, applying this node finder to heterogeneity networks, which are efficient to analyze the main farm complex in fields and the spread of infectious disease, is difficult. These problems, The most connected point that is called hub is often a major role in the heterogeneity network. In this study, we therefore improved the community bridge node finder to enable it to be applied to heterogeneity networks. We attempted to calculate the bridge node quantitatively by using the modularity of cohesion analysis method and the community bridge node finder. Application of the improved method to the HPAI(Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) spread in Korea 2008 produced a quarantine coefficient that was 4 - 37% higher than the quarantine coefficient obtained with the centrality method for the first 14 days after the HPAI outbreak. We concluded that the improved method has the ability to successfully calculate the bridge node in heterogeneity networks based on network structures with scant information, such as those describing the spread of infectious disease in domestic animals. And Our method should be capable to find main farm complex in fields.

호흡기,소화기계 감염환자로부터 전염성 바이러스 분리 및 특성

  • Jo, Gyeong-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Life Science Conference
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    • 2000.12a
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2000
  • 호흡기계 및 소화기계에 감염된 전염성 바이러스에 대한 역학적 기초자료로 이용하고자 1999년 1월부터 12월까지 부산지역에서 분리된 전염성 바이러스의 특징과 계절적 발생추이, 환자의 성별, 연령별 발생에 대해 조사한 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 1999년도 바이러스 가검물 2261건에서 분리한 호흡기계감염 바이러스 279건과 소화기계 감염 바이러스 83주를 분리하였으며, 이중 인플루엔자 바이러스 A형이 96주(29.6%), B형이 107주(33.0%)로 대부분을 차지하였다. 2. 1999년의 바이러스 분리의 성별 분포는 총 360명의 환자 중 179명(49.7%)의 남성 및 181명(50.3%)의 여성으로 비슷한 양상을 나타내었다. 이중 호흡기계의 경우 279명의 감염환자 중 남성이 130명(46.6%), 여성이 149명(53.4%)으로 여성의 감염율이 비교적 높았으나, 소화기계의 경우 83명의 감염환자 중 남성이 51명(61.4%), 여성이 32명(38.5%)으로 남성의 감염율이 거의 2배정도 높게 나타났다. 3. 1999년의 연령별 분포는 10세 이하의 어린이가 194명(59.9%)으로 대부분을 차지하였으며, 이중 인플루엔자 바이러스가 99명(30.6%)으로 가장 높은 감염을을 나타내었다 유행성이하선염 바이러스의 감염어린이 중에 $l1{\sim}15$세의 연령층이 15명으로(53.3%)로 가장 높게 나타났다. 4. 1999년 월별 감염율은 호흡기계 감염증 바이러스의 경우 1월부터 4월까지, 그리고 12월에 증가 추세를 보이면서 4월에 가장 높은 감염율을 나타내었다 소화기계 감염증 바이러스의 경우 9, 10, 11월을 제외한 모든 월별에 관찰되었으며, echo와 coxsackie 바이러스는 무균성 수막염 환자에서 하절기에 집중적으로 발생하였다. 동절기에 유행하는 설사 바이러스는 12월에 비교적 높은 양상을 나타내었다. 5. 인플루엔자 바이러스는 MDCK 세포에서, 아데노 바이러스와 유행성 이하선염 바이러스는 HEp-2 세포에서, 파라인플루엔자 바이러스는 Vero 세포에서, 그리고 echo, coxsackie B 바이러스와 장내 바이러스는 HEp-2, Vero, BGM 세포에서 뚜렷한 세포병변 효과를 나타내었다. 6. 분리한 바이러스는 전자현미경으로 관찰한 결과 인플루엔자 바이러스 A 형(HINI, H3N2)은 95nm, B 형은 70nm크기의 구형을 나타내었으며, 바이러스표면의 지질 이중층이 뚜렷하게 관찰되었다. 아데노 바이러스는 외피가 관찰되지 않았으며, nucleocapsid는 symmetry이고 크기는 71nm로서 바이러스 입자 표면에 icosaheral capsomer의 배열이 명확하게 관찰되었고, 파라인플루엔자 바이러스와 유행성 이하선염 바이러스는 외피가 있는 구형의 큰 viron으로180, 170nm 크기이었다. 7. Echo와 coxsackie B group 바이러스는 모두 외피가 없는 isometric 형으로 크기는 $30{\sim}45nm$ 이었고, enteric adeno 바이러스는 84nm 크기로서 외피가 없고, 입자 표면에 capsomer의 배열이 명확하게 관찰되었고, rotavirus는 크기가 70nm이며 외층 capsid 단백질과 내층 capsid 단백질이 두층으로 되어 있는 전형적인 수레바퀴 모양을 나타내었다. 이상의 결과로 보아 호흡기계 및 소화기계에 감염되는 전염성 바이러스는 연중 지속적으로 분리되고 있으며 전염성이 강하여 집단 발생은 일으키는 경우도 많고 최근 들어 유행성 이하선염과 흥역 바이러스의 발생률이 높은 추이를 나타내고 있지만 아직은 특이한 바이러스 치료제가 개발되어 있지 않았으므로 지속적인 대책과 아울러 장기적인 발생 가능에 대한 예방책을 흥보하여야 할 것으로 보이며 계속적인 바이러스성 전염병 유행예측조사 및 역학조사가 적극적으로 이루어져야 할 것으로 사료된다.

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Development Plan of R.O.K. Naval forces to prepare Tasks in the Arctic Ocean: Based on Operational Environment(SWOT) Analysis (한국 해군의 북극해 진출과 발전방안에 대한 고찰: 작전환경(SWOT) 분석을 중심으로)

  • Ji, Young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.311-343
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    • 2020
  • Because of the global warming, the Arctic Ocean is expected to be ice-free by the year 2035. When the Arctic Ocean will be opened, a number of national interests will become more salient as experiencing a shortened sailing distance and decreasing navigation expense, possibility of natural resources transport by sea from Arctic Circle, and indirect-profit making by building a herb port in Asia. To secure the national interests and support the free activities of people in this region, R.O.K government is trying to make advanced policies. In order to carry out the naval tasks in the Arctic Ocean, using the operational characteristics(mobility, flexibility, sustainability, presence of capabilities, projection) is necessary. To this end, ROK Navy should analyze the operational environment (O.E.) by its capability(weakness and strength), opportunity, and threat. R.O.K. Navy should make an effort over the following issues to implement the tasks in the Arctic Ocean: first, Navy needs to map out her own plan (Roadmap) under the direction of government policies and makes crews participate in the education·training programs in home and abroad for future polar experts. Third, to develop the forces and materials for the tasks in cold, far operations area, Navy should use domestic well-experienced shipbuilding skills and techniques of the fourth industrial revolution. Next, improving the combined operations capabilities and military trust with other countries in the Arctic region to cover the large area with lack of forces' number and to resolve the ports of call issues. Lastly, preparation in advance to execute a variety of missions against military and non-traditional threats such as epidemics, HA/DR, SOLAS, in the future operation area is required.

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Approaches to Digital Health Passport for Healthy Travel in the the Era of COVID-19 (COVID-19시대에 건강한 여행을 위한 Digital Health Passport에 대한 접근법)

  • Yim, Myung-Seong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to present an approach to the "Digital Health Passport" (DHP), which will be the most important in the change of the travel industry among the sudden environmental changes brought about by COVID-19. To this end, this study reviewed a variety of empirical literature on DHP, and proposed a framework for DHP based on literature review. The framework is composed of travel intention, health information provision intention, and new technology acceptance/adoption of tourists. First, in terms of travel intention, providing information to DHP should not undermine the travel intention of the travelers. It should be possible to facilitate the travelers' enjoyment by using the information provided by the traveler. In addition, there is a need to assure that the data provided by travelers is managed in a reliable way. Second, it is necessary to understand why the travelers want to provide additional personal information (information disclosure), rather than seeing healthcare information only in terms of mandatory information provision. Finally, from the perspective of new technology, it is necessary to understand the intention of travelers to use/adopt DHP. The key implication of this work is that it proposed a DHP framework for realizing the travel bubble to predict and respond to foreign travelers' behaviors.

One-health Approach in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Focusing on Animal Infection (One-health 관점에서 본 Post-COVID-19 시대의 동물 감염)

  • Hye-Jeong Jang;Sun-Nyoung Yu;O-Yu Kwon;Soon-Cheol Ahn
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2023
  • To prepare for the threat of a future epidemic in the post-COVID-19 era, research based on the one-health concept (i.e., the health of humans, animals, and the environment as "one") is essential. Cross-species infections are being identified as a result of the high infection rate and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. The possibility of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to mink has been determined. In addition, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to cats through contact has been considered possible. The data so far show that livestock and poultry are less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, if infections are established through a new mutation, the resulting diseases are expected to have enormous ripple effects on various fields, such as human food security, the economy, and trade. In addition, there are concerns about the endemic prospect of SARS-CoV-2 and the high accessibility of companion animals. This is because the evolution of the virus likely occurs in animal hosts. Once SARS-CoV-2 is established in other species, they might serve as intermediate hosts for the re-emergence of the virus in the human population. Thus, it is necessary to ensure a rapid response to future outbreaks by accumulating research data on the animal infection of SARS-CoV-2. These data can have implications for the development of animal models for vaccines and therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in this study, epidemiological reviews were analyzed, and response strategies against SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals were presented using the One-health approach.