• Title/Summary/Keyword: 재현도오차

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Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 GCMs for Various Climatic Elements and Indicators over the Southeast US (다양한 기후요소와 지표에 대한 CMIP5 GCMs 모델 성능 평가 -미국 남동부 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.1039-1050
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    • 2014
  • The goal of this study is to demonstrate the diversity of model performance for various climatic elements and indicators. We evaluated the skills of the most advanced 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) i.e., CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology from 1950 to 2000 over the Southeast US for the key climatic elements important in the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and wind speed). The biases of raw CMIP5 GCMs were estimated for 16 different climatic indicators that imply mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc. using a grid-based observational dataset as reference. Based on the error (RMSE) and correlation (R) of GCM outputs, the error-based GCM ranks were assigned on average over the indicators. Overall, the GCMs showed much better accuracy in representing mean climatology of temperature comparing to other elements whereas few GCM showed acceptable skills for precipitation. It was also found that the model skills and ranks would be substantially different by the climatic elements, error statistics applied for evaluation, and indicators as well. This study presents significance of GCM uncertainty and the needs of considering rational strategies for climate model evaluation and selection.

Generation of radar rainfall data for hydrological and meteorological application (II) : radar rainfall ensemble (수문기상학적 활용을 위한 레이더 강우자료 생산(II) : 레이더 강우앙상블)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Jang, Sang-Min;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2017
  • A recent increase in extreme weather events and flash floods associated with the enhanced climate variability results in an increase in climate-related disasters. For these reasons, various studies based on a high resolution weather radar system have been carried out. The weather radar can provide estimates of precipitation in real-time over a wide area, while ground-based rain gauges only provides a point estimate in space. Weather radar is thus capable of identifying changes in rainfall structure as it moves through an ungauged basin. However, the advantage of the weather radar rainfall estimates has been limited by a variety of sources of uncertainty in the radar reflectivity process, including systematic and random errors. In this study, we developed an ensemble radar rainfall estimation scheme using the multivariate copula method. The results presented in this study confirmed that the proposed ensemble technique can effectively reproduce the rainfall statistics such as mean, variance and skewness (more importantly the extremes) as well as the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall fields.

Generation of radar rainfall data for hydrological and meteorological application (I) : bias correction and estimation of error distribution (수문기상학적 활용을 위한 레이더 강우자료 생산(I) : 편의보정 및 오차분포 산정)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Jang, Sang-Min;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2017
  • Information on radar rainfall with high spatio-temporal resolution over large areas has been used to mitigate climate-related disasters such as flash floods. On the other hand, a well-known problem associated with the radar rainfall using the Marshall-Palmer relationship is the underestimation. In this study, we develop a new bias correction scheme based on the quantile regression method. This study employed a bivariate copula function method for the joint simulation between radar and ground gauge rainfall data to better characterize the error distribution. The proposed quantile regression based bias corrected rainfall showed a good agreement with that of observed. Moreover, the results of our case studies suggest that the copula function approach was useful to functionalize the error distribution of radar rainfall in an effective way.

On the Effective Thermal Diffusivity of Water-Protein-Fat Food System ($\cdot$단백질$\cdot$지질계(불균질계) 식품의 유효열확산율)

  • KONG Jai-Yul
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.154-160
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    • 1982
  • One dimensional unsteady heat conduction was studied on soybean curd as a water-protein-fat food system. This heterogeneous soybean curd could be treated as homogeneous material as for the unsteady heat conduction by 'effectiver' thermal diffusivity. Measurements were made with a apparatus designed and constructed by the author and also made with ice to establish the reliability, the reproducibility and the accuracy of the apparatus. It was found that the effective thermal diffusivity of soybean curd was substantially dependent on the fraction of protein and fat as well as water.

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Kinematic and Image Stabilization of a Two-axis Surveillance System on Ship (선상 2축 감시장비의 기구 및 영상 안정화)

  • Lee, Kyung-Min;Cho, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Ho-Bum;Lyou, Joon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2012
  • When operating a surveillance system in the maritime environment, its stabilization performance is degraded due to undesirable disturbance motions. For accurate target pointing of a 2-axes surveillance system on shipboard, the kinematic stabilization is first applied, which compensates a deviated motion via coordinate transformations of attitude information. Resultantly, the stabilization error is no longer reduced due to less accuracy of a MEMS sensor and kinematic constraint, leading to introduction of the image stabilization as a complementary function. And for real-time execution of the present dual stabilization scheme, a HILS (Hardware In the Loop Simulation) test bed including 6-dof motion simulator has been constructed, and through the obtained HILS data, it has been confirmed that the stabilization is successfully.

New Non-linear Inverse Quantization Algorithm and Hardware Architecture for Digital Audio Codecs (디지털 오디오 코덱을 위한 새로운 비선형 역 양자화 알고리즘과 하드웨어 구조)

  • Moon, Jong-Ha;Baek, Jae-Hyun;SunWoo, Myung-Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1C
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2008
  • This paper This paper proposes a new inverse-quantization(IQ) table interpolation algorithm, specialized Digital Signal Processor(DSP) instructions and hardware architecture for digital audio codecs. Non-linear inverse quantization algorithm is representatively used in both MPEG-1 Layer-3 and MPEG-2/4 Advanced Audio Coding(AAC). The proposed instructions are optimized for the non-linear inverse quantization. The proposed algorithm can minimize operational complexity which reduces total computational load. Performance comparisons show a significant improvement of average error. The proposed instructions and hardware architecture can reduce 20% of the instruction counts and minimize computational loads of IQ algorithms effectively compared with existing IQ table interpolation algorithms. Proposed algorithm can implement commercial DSPs.

Regional Frequency Analysis for Rainfall Data using the Burr XII Distribution (Burr XII 분포형을 이용한 강우자료 지역빈도해석)

  • Seo, Jungho;Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.162-162
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    • 2017
  • 최근 우리나라는 전 지구적인 기후변화로 인하여 집중호우 및 돌발 홍수와 같은 극치 사상들이 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 이에 대한 분석을 위해 극치 분포를 이용한 수문통계적 특성에 대한 접근이 주로 이루어지고 있다. 이를 위해서는 충분한 수의 자료가 필요하나 우리나라 강우자료는 지점별로 자료 보유 년 수가 비교적 많지 않기 때문에, 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위하여 하나의 지역, 즉 주어진 지점을 포함하여 수문학적으로 동일한 조건을 만족하는 주변 지점의 자료를 모두 포함하여 빈도해석을 실시하는 지역빈도해석이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역빈도해석과 두 개의 형상매개변수를 포함하여 다양한 극치 수문통계특성을 나타낼 수 있다고 알려진 Burr XII 분포를 이용하여 우리나라 강우자료에 대한 그 적용성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 군집분석을 통한 강우지점의 지역화 과정을 거치고 분류된 지역을 L-moment ratio diagram에 도시하여, Burr XII 분포 영역 내 포함여부를 통해 Burr XII 분포의 적합도를 도시적으로 살펴보고, Hosking and Wallis (1997)이 제안한 적합성 척도($^{IST}$)를 통한 적합성 여부를 판별하였다. 또한 우리나라 강우자료에 비교적 적합하다고 알려진 분포인 generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, Gumbel 분포와의 비교를 위해, 전체 지역에 대하여 재현기간에 따른 상대편의 (relative bias)와 상대평균제곱근오차 (relative root mean square error)를 산정하여 Burr XII 분포형의 적용 가능성을 살펴보았다.

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Improvement of the GRM model for Continuous Runoff Simulation (연속형 유출모의를 위한 GRM 모형의 개선)

  • Yun Seok Choi;Si Jung Choi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.382-382
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    • 2023
  • 기존의 GRM(Grid based rainfall-Runoff Model)에서는 강우-유출 사상에 대한 유출 모의를 주요 대상으로 하였다. 본 연구에서는 GRM 모형에서 연속형 모의가 가능하도록 차단, 증발산, 융설을 모의할 수 있는 모듈을 개발하였다. 차단은 LAI의 연최댓값과 해당월의 값의 비율을 이용해서 계산하며, 증발산은 Blaney-Criddle, Hamon, Hargreaves, Priestly-Taylor 방법을 적용하였다. 융설은 Anderson에 의해서 제안된 방법을 적용하였다. 연속형 모의를 위한 모델 매개변수 설정 인터페이스를 추가하였으며, 기온, 일사량, 일조시간 등의 기상자료를 입력할 수 있게 하고, 계산된 각 수문성분을 출력할 수 있도록 GRM 모형의 입력과 출력 모듈을 개선하였다. 충주댐 유역을 대상으로 개선된 모형을 적용하였다. 공간자료의 해상도는 500m × 500m로 구축하였으며, 수문학적 지형정보와 토양도, 토지피복도를 구축하였다. 기상자료를 강수량, 일최고 기온, 일최저 기온, 일조시간, 일사량을 적용하였다. 증발산은 Hargreaves 방법을 이용하여 모의하였다. 모의 기간은 2001년 ~ 2018년이며, 이 중 2004년까지의 4년은 모델 warming up 기간으로 하고, 적합도 평가는 2005년 ~ 2018년의 모의결과를 이용하였다. 충주댐 유입량 모의결과를 관측값과 비교하였을 때 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(NSE) 0.84, 상관계수 0.92, 총용적 오차는 0.26%를 나타내어 관측유입량을 잘 재현하였다. 그러므로 본 연구에서 개발된 차단, 증발산, 융설 모의 기법은 적절히 구현된 것으로 판단되며, GRM을 이용한 연속형 모의가 가능한 것으로 나타났다. 향후 연구에서는 좀 더 다양한 유역에 대해 GRM을 이용한 연속형 유출모의 결과를 평가할 필요가 있다.

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Determination of Total Saponin in Ginseng Jellies and Candies (인삼추출물(人蔘抽出物) 함유과자류(含有菓子類)의 Total Saponin 의 정량(定量))

  • Kim, Hyong-Soo;Lee, Hee-Ja
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.356-360
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    • 1978
  • To determine the total saponin extracted by Shibata method, of Ginseng jellies and candies, $vanillin-H_2SO_4$ coloring method, direct drying method and thinchrographic method were compared after samples were treated with methanol to remove sugars. Thinchrographic method was the more reproducible than direct drying method and $vanillin-H_2SO_4$ coloring method was interfered significantly by sugars.

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A Study on the behavior of bottom water in water area by using modified POM (개량형 POM을 이용한 수역에서의 저층수의 거동에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon Jong-Sung;Lee Dong-Ken;Kim In-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.198-210
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    • 2006
  • POM(Princeton Ocean Model) was utilized in this study because it took ${\sigma}-coordinate$ system which could predict the behavior of bottom water. The model has been increasingly applied to costal area although it was initially developed as the ocean flow model. The original POM did not correct computational errors in transformation of ${\sigma}-coordinate$ system. The trying to reduce conversional errors might improve accuracy of flow velocity in vicinities of bottom layer. Therefore, in this study it was proposed to modify the original POM by using error correction method suggested by $Sl{\Phi}rdal$(1997). The modified POM was applied to Young-rang Lake, one of the typical brackish lakes in Korea. It was found that the behavior of bottom water could be well predicted. Thus, it seems that the modified POM can be used as a useful tool to clarify the mechanism of formation and behavior of bottom water including oxygen-deficient water mass.