• Title/Summary/Keyword: 재해예측

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Evaluation of flash drought characteristics using satellite-based soil moisture product between North and South Korea (위성영상 기반 토양수분을 활용한 남북한의 돌발가뭄 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Hee-Jin;Nam, Won-Ho;Jason A. Otkin;Yafang Zhong;Xiang Zhang;Mark D. Svoboda
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.8
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    • pp.509-518
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    • 2024
  • Flash drought is a rapid-onset drought that occurs rapidly over a short period due to abrupt changes in meteorological and environmental factors. In this study, we utilized satellite-based soil moisture product from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2(AMSR2) ascending X-band to calculate the weekly Flash Drought Intensity Index (FDII). We also analyzed the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula over a 10-year period from 2013 to 2022. The analysis of monthly spatial distribution patterns of the irrigation period across the Korean Peninsula revealed significant variations. In North Korea (NK), a substantial increase in the rate of intensification (FD_INT) was observed due to the rapid depletion of soil moisture, whereas South Korea (SK) experienced a significant increase in drought severity (DRO_SEV). Additionally, regional time series analysis revealed that both FD_INT and DRO_SEV were significantly high in the Gangwon province of both NK and SK. The estimation of probability density by region revealed a clear difference in FD_INT between NK and SK, with SK showing a higher probability of severe drought occurrence primarily due to the high values of DRO_SEV. As a result, it is inferred that the occurrence frequency and damage of flash droughts in NK are higher than those in SK, as indicated by the higher density of large FDII values in the NK region. We analyzed the correlation between DRO_SEV and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) across the Korean Peninsula and confirmed a positive correlation ranging from 0.4 to 0.6. It is concluded that analyzing overall drought conditions through the average drought severity holds high utility. These findings are expected to contribute to understanding the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula and formulating post-event response plans.

Analysis of PM2.5 Impact and Human Exposure from Worst-Case of Mt. Baekdu Volcanic Eruption (백두산 분화 Worst-case로 인한 우리나라 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 영향분석 및 노출평가)

  • Park, Jae Eun;Kim, Hyerim;Sunwoo, Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_4
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    • pp.1267-1276
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    • 2020
  • To quantitatively predict the impacts of large-scale volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu on air quality and damage around the Korean Peninsula, a three-dimensional chemistry-transport modeling system (Weather Research & Forecasting - Sparse Matrix Operation Kernel Emission - Comunity Multi-scale Air Quality) was adopted. A worst-case meteorology scenario was selected to estimate the direct impact on Korea. This study applied the typical worst-case scenarios that are likely to cause significant damage to Korea among worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu in the past decade (2005~2014) and assumed a massive VEI 4 volcanic eruption on May 16, 2012, to analyze the concentration of PM2.5 caused by the volcanic eruption. The effects of air quality in each region-cities, counties, boroughs-were estimated, and vulnerable areas were derived by conducting an exposure assessment reflecting vulnerable groups. Moreover, the effects of cities, counties, and boroughs were analyzed with a high-resolution scale (9 km × 9 km) to derive vulnerable areas within the regions. As a result of analyzing the typical worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu, a discrepancy was shown in areas between high PM2.5 concentration, high population density, and where vulnerable groups are concentrated. From the result, PM2.5 peak concentration was about 24,547 ㎍/㎥, which is estimated to be a more serious situation than the eruption of Mt. St. Helensin 1980, which is known for 540 million tons of volcanic ash. Paju, Gimpo, Goyang, Ganghwa, Sancheong, Hadong showed to have a high PM2.5 concentration. Paju appeared to be the most vulnerable area from the exposure assessment. While areas estimated with a high concentration of air pollutants are important, it is also necessary to develop plans and measures considering densely populated areas or areas with high concentrations of susceptible population or vulnerable groups. Also, establishing measures for each vulnerable area by selecting high concentration areas within cities, counties, and boroughs rather than establishing uniform measures for all regions is needed. This study will provide the foundation for developing the standards for disaster declaration and preemptive response systems for volcanic eruptions.

Present Status and Future Prospect of Satellite Image Uses in Water Resources Area (수자원분야의 위성영상 활용 현황과 전망)

  • Kim, Seongjoon;Lee, Yonggwan
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.105-123
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    • 2018
  • Currently, satellite images act as essential and important data in water resources, environment, and ecology as well as information of geographic information system. In this paper, we will investigate basic characteristics of satellite images, especially application examples in water resources. In recent years, researches on spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale regions utilizing the advantages of satellite imagery have been actively conducted for fundamental hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and natural disasters such as drought, flood, and heavy snow. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics such as vegetation characteristics, plant production, net primary production, turbidity of water bodies, chlorophyll concentration, and water quality by using various image information utilizing various sensor information of satellites. Korea is planning to launch a satellite for water resources and environment in the near future, so various researches are expected to be activated on this field.

Establishment of Geospatial Schemes Based on Topo-Climatology for Farm-Specific Agrometeorological Information (농장맞춤형 농업기상정보 생산을 위한 소기후 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.146-157
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    • 2019
  • One of the most distinctive features of the South Korean rural environment is that the variation of weather or climate is large even within a small area due to complex terrains. The Geospatial Schemes based on Topo-Climatology (GSTP) was developed to simulate such variations effectively. In the present study, we reviewed the progress of the geospatial schemes for production of farm-scale agricultural weather data. Efforts have been made to improve the GSTP since 2000s. The schemes were used to provide climate information based on the current normal year and future climate scenarios at a landscape scale. The digital climate maps for the normal year include the maps of the monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation in the past 30 years at 30 m or 270 m spatial resolution. Based on these digital climate maps, future climate change scenario maps were also produced at the high spatial resolution. These maps have been used for climate change impact assessment at the field scale by reprocessing them and transforming them into various forms. In the 2010s, the GSTP model was used to produce information for farm-specific weather conditions and weather forecast data on a landscape scale. The microclimate models of which the GSTP model consists have been improved to provide detailed weather condition data based on daily weather observation data in recent development. Using such daily data, the Early warning service for agrometeorological hazard has been developed to provide weather forecasts in real-time by processing a digital forecast and mid-term weather forecast data (KMA) at 30 m spatial resolution. Currently, daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation quantity, and the duration of sunshine are forecasted as detailed weather conditions and forecast information. Moreover, based on farm-specific past-current-future weather information, growth information for various crops and agrometeorological disaster forecasts have been produced.

Predictive Flooded Area Susceptibility and Verification Using GIS and Frequency Ratio (빈도비 모델과 GIS을 이용한 침수 취약 지역 예측 기법 개발 및 검증)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Kang, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.86-102
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    • 2012
  • For predictive flooded area susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified probability model and the frequency ratio using a geographic information system (GIS) and frequency raio. Flooded areas were identified in the study area of field surveys, For predictive flooded area susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified probability model and the frequency ratio using a geographic information system (GIS) and frequency raio. Flooded areas were identified in the study area of field surveys, and maps of the topography, geology, landcover and green infrastructure were constructed for a spatial database. The factors that influence flooded areas occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope, aspect and curvature of topography and distance from darinage, were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from the geology database. The frequency ratio coefficient is overlaid for flooded areas susceptibility mapping as each factor's ratings. Then the flooded areas susceptibility map was verified and compared using the existing flooded areas. As the verification results, the frequency ratio model showed 82% in prediction accuracy. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with flooded areas and to plan land use.

Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Index Considering Climate Change in Han-River Basin (기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 기상학적 가뭄지수 분석)

  • Kim, Duckhwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Choi, Changhyeon;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.432-447
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    • 2016
  • The increased frequency of drought and flood due to climate change was a global problem. In particular, drought was recognized as a serious environmental, ecological, social, and economic disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to study the measures to prevent it. In this study, we will estimate the meteorological drought index in the Han River Basin and analyze the impact of climate change on drought. The change of the meteorological drought occurrence due to climate change in the Han River separated by the common drought and severe drought was analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1973 - 2010 were selected for analysis in the current period. Using the scenario, we separated the future period (Target I: 2011 - 2039, Target II: 2040 - 2069, Target III : 2070 - 2099). The number of occurrences of less than -1.0 and -1.5 standard precipitation index were analyzed by SPI 3, 6, 12. Looking at the results, trends in rainfall in the Han River was expected to increase from the current figures, the occurrence of drought is predicted to decline in the future. However, the number of drought occurrence was analyzed to increase toward long-term drought. The number of severe drought occurrences was usually larger than the common drought estimated. Additional studies may be considered in addition to the agricultural drought, hydrological drought, socio-economic drought. This will be done by using efficient water management. The results can be used as a basis for future drought analysis of the Han River.

Vulnerability Analysis in the Nakdong River Basin for the Utilization of Flood Risk Mapping (홍수위험지도 활용을 위한 낙동강 유역에서의 홍수취약도 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyung;Han, Kun-Yeun;Cho, Wan-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.203-222
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    • 2011
  • The characteristics of flood damages have been increasingly strengthened and take the form of unpredictable and unusual weather phenomena caused by climate change and climate anomalies. To prevent inundation damage caused by breach of hydraulic structure such as dam or levee, and trouble of drainage of inner basin, the prediction necessity of flood inundation area, flood risk analysis, and drawing flood risk maps have been on the rise, and the national flood risk maps have been produced. In this study, the quantitative flood vulnerability analysis was performed, which represents population living within flood-affected areas, types of economic activities, facilities affected by flood, in order to extend flood risk mapping from simple hazard concept into risk based idea. By applying it to Nakdong River basin, the flood vulnerability indices were estimated to draw flood risk maps subdivided into administrative districts. The result of this study can be applied to establish the disaster prevention measures and priority decision of disaster prevention project.

Change detection algorithm based on amplitude statistical distribution for high resolution SAR image (통계분포에 기반한 고해상도 SAR 영상의 변화탐지 알고리즘 구현 및 적용)

  • Lee, Kiwoong;Kang, Seoli;Kim, Ahleum;Song, Kyungmin;Lee, Wookyung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.227-244
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    • 2015
  • Synthetic Aperture Radar is able to provide images of wide coverage in day, night, and all-weather conditions. Recently, as the SAR image resolution improves up to the sub-meter level, their applications are rapidly expanding accordingly. Especially there is a growing interest in the use of geographic information of high resolution SAR images and the change detection will be one of the most important technique for their applications. In this paper, an automatic threshold tracking and change detection algorithm is proposed applicable to high-resolution SAR images. To detect changes within SAR image, a reference image is generated using log-ratio operator and its amplitude distribution is estimated through K-S test. Assuming SAR image has a non-gaussian amplitude distribution, a generalized thresholding technique is applied using Kittler and Illingworth minimum-error estimation. Also, MoLC parametric estimation method is adopted to improve the algorithm performance on rough ground target. The implemented algorithm is tested and verified on the simulated SAR raw data. Then, it is applied to the spaceborne high-resolution SAR images taken by Cosmo-Skymed and KOMPSAT-5 and the performances are analyzed and compared.

Development of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Flow Model for Use in Land Surface Models at a Large Scale: Part II. Model Implementation (대규모 육지수문모형에서 사용 가능한 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형의 개발: II. 모형적용)

  • Choi, Hyun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 2008
  • The new conjunctive surface-subsurface flow model at a large scale was developed by using a 1-D Diffusion Wave (DW) model for surface flow interacting with the 3-D Volume Averaged Soil-moisture Transport (VAST) model for subsurface flow for the comprehensive terrestrial water and energy predictions in Land Surface Models (LSMs). A selection of numerical implementation schemes is employed for each flow component. The 3-D VAST model is implemented using a time splitting scheme applying an explicit method for lateral flow after a fully implicit method for vertical flow. The 1-D DW model is then solved by MacCormack finite difference scheme. This new conjunctive flow model is substituted for the existing 1-D hydrologic scheme in Common Land Model (CLM), one of the state-of-the-art LSMs. The new conjunctive flow model coupled to CLM is tested for a study domain around the Ohio Valley. The simulation results show that the interaction between surface flow and subsurface flow associated with the flow routing scheme matches the runoff prediction with the observations more closely in the new coupled CLM simulations. This improved terrestrial hydrologic module will be coupled to the Climate extension of the next-generation Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model for advanced regional, continental, and global hydroclimatological studies and the prevention of disasters caused by climate changes.

Rainfall Threshold (ID curve) for Landslide Initiation and Prediction Considering Antecedent Rainfall (선행강우를 고려한 산사태 유발 강우기준(ID curve) 분석)

  • Hong, Moon-Hyun;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Jung, Gyung-Ja;Jeong, Sang-Seom
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to suggest a landslide triggering rainfall threshold (ID curve) for landslide prediction by considering the effect of antecedent rainfall. 202 rainfall data including domestic landslide and rainfall records were used in this study. In order to consider the effect of antecedent rainfall, rainfall data were analyzed by changing Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) and IETD based ID curve were presented by regression analysis. Compared to the findings of the previous studies, the presented ID curve has a tendency to predict the landslides occurring at a relatively low rainfall intensity. It is shown that the proposed ID curve is appropriate and realistic for predicting landslides through the validation of proposed ID curve using records of landslides in 2014. Based on this analysis, it is found that the longer IETD, the greater the effect of antecedent rainfall, and the steeper the gradient of ID curve. It is also found that the rainfall threshold (intensity) is higher for the short period rainfall and lower for the long period rainfall.