• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인구변동

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General Circulation Model Derived Climate Change Impact and Uncertainty Analysis of Maize Yield in Zimbabwe (GCM 예측자료를 이용한 기후변화가 짐바브웨 옥수수 생산에 미치는 영향 및 불확실성 분석)

  • Nkomozepi, Temba D.;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2012
  • 짐바브웨는 식량부족을 격어 오고 있으며, 이는 기후변화에 따른 수자원의 부족, 인구증가, 개발 및 환경보전 등으로 인하여 앞으로는 더욱 심화될 것으로 보인다. 3가지 배출시나리오 (A2, A1B, B1)에 대한 13개의 GCM 기후자료로부터 상세화한 기후예측값과 AquaCrop 작물모형을 이용하여 기후변화가 짐바브웨의 주곡인 옥수수의 수확량에 미치는 영향과 모형예측값의 불확실성을 분석하였다. 작물생육환경이 잘 유지된다고 가정하고 옥수수 잠재생산량을 모의한 결과 기준년도 (1970s)에 비해 2020s, 2050s and 2090s 년대에 평균 (범위) 8 % (6-9 %), 14 % (10-15 %) 및 16 % (11-17 %) 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 같은 기간에 대한 물의 생산성은 평균 (범위) 7 % (4-13 %), 13 % (6-30 %) 및 15% (6-23 %) 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기온의 꾸준한 상승과 대기중 이산화탄소 농도 증가로 인한 시비효과로 인하여 미래에는 옥수수 단위 생산량과 물의 생산성이 증가할 것으로 예측되었으며 증가 범위를 보면 모형간의 변동성이 상당히 큰 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 기후변화가 짐바브웨의 옥수수 생산량에 미치는 영향과 변동성을 제시하므로서 장기적인 식량계획의 기초자료로 이용될 수 있을 것이다.

Possibilities and limitations of the sociology of generations - an analytical classification of the generation concept (세대사회학의 가능성과 한계 - 세대개념의 분석적 구분 -)

  • 전상진
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.193-230
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    • 2002
  • Issues regarding "generation" are facing a renaissance during recent years. One of prevailing reasons for this development is the crisis of collective identities due to diverse contemporary socio-political circumstances and cultural characteristics of Korean society. However, it is often criticized that the sociological examination of this topic is rather in a obscure stage resulting from the inherent confusion and ambiguities mainly caused by the mixed usage of the concept. In this regard, this study explores the possibility of answering these critics and refining the systemic usage for the sociology of generation in the realm of social changes and social innovations. For this purpose, analytical classification of the concept based on various contextual typology are attempted.attempted.

Development of quantification software for assessing thyroid nodule in ultrasound images and its clinical application in benign nodules (갑상선 초음파 의료영상을 이용한 정량분석 소프트웨어 개발과 양성 결절 환자에서의 임상 적용)

  • Ryu, Young Jae;Hur, Young Hoe;Kwon, Seong Young;Chae, Il-Seok;Kim, Min Jung;Kim, Tae-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.443-445
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    • 2021
  • 갑상선 결절(thyroid nodule)은 검진 인구에서 빈번하게 진단되는 질환이지만 현재까지 진단방법은 경험적이며 정성적 판단에 의존하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구는 갑상선 결절을 평가하기 위하여 시행한 초음파 의료영상을 이용하여 정량 분석할 수 있는 소프트웨어를 개발하였으며 갑상선 양성 결절환자에서의 임상활용 가능성을 평가하고자 한다. 임상 연구는 총 13명의 갑상선 양성 결절 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 환자별 갑상선 초음파영상을 이용하여 정상부위와 병변부위에서 정량 지표인 변동계수를 각각 측정하였다. 환자별 정상부위와 병변부위의 변동계수 차이는 대응표본 T 검정을 사용하여 비교하였으며 유의한 차이를 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통하여 개발한 정량분석 소프트웨어를 실제 갑상선 양성 결절 환자에서 갑상선 결절을 분석·평가하는데 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Evaluation of Precipitation Variability using Grid-based Rainfall Data Based on Satellite Image (위성영상 기반 격자형 강우자료를 활용한 강수량 변동성 평가)

  • Park, Gwang-Su;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;Yang, Mi-Hye;Lee, Hee-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.330-330
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    • 2022
  • 우리나라에서 발생하는 기상 재해 현상은 주로 태풍, 집중호우, 장마 등 인명 및 경제적인 피해가 크며, 단기간에 국지적으로 나타난다. 현재 재해 감시 및 예보는 주로 종관기상관측체계를 이용하고 있다. 하지만, 우리나라의 복잡한 지형, 인구 밀집 지형, 관측 시기가 일정하지 않은 지형과 같은 조건에서 미계측 자료 및 지역이 다수 존재 때문에 강수의 공간 분포와 강도에 대한 정밀한 정보를 제공하지 못하는 실정이다. 최근 광범위한 관측영역과 공간 분해능의 개선, 자료추출 알고리즘의 개발로 전세계적으로 위성영상 기반 기상관측 자료의 활용성이 증대되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 한반도 지역의 지상 관측데이터와 전지구 격자형 위성 강우자료를 비교하여 한반도의 적용성을 분석하고자 한다. 다양한 위성영상 기반 기상자료인 Climate Hazards Groups InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) 4개의 강우위성영상을 수집하여, 1991년부터 2020년까지 30년 데이터를 활용하였다. 강수량 변동성 비교를 위하여 기상청의 종관기상관측장비 (Automated Synoptic Observation System, ASOS), 자동기상관측시설 (Automatic Weather System, AWS) 데이터와 상관 분석을 수행하고, 강우위성영상의 국내 적합성을 판단하고자 한다.

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Regional Difference of the Job Search, the Job Offer and the Taking a Job (구직과 구인, 취업참여의 지역간 차이)

  • Moon, Nam-Cheol
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.176-191
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    • 2011
  • The regional supply and demand for labor are different among the regions because of the regional disparity of the human capital and the industrial structure. Honam, Kangwon and Jeju province in particular has a more rapid change of the job search(labor supply), the job offer(labor supply) and the employed person according to the business fluctuations. The employed person of the capital region, Seoul in particular increased: though diminished the job offer and the job search grew. But the employed person of Youngnam and Honam province in particular decreased: though grew the job offer and the job search diminished. The employment rate and employment opportunity of all population group except the high-educated person are higher in the capital region than the province. The province has a low employment rate even in the managerial work and the professional work that the employment opportunity is high because of the lack of human capital.

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A study comparison of mortality projection using parametric and non-parametric model (모수와 비모수 모형을 활용한 사망률 예측 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Soon-Young;Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.701-717
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    • 2017
  • The interest of Korean society and government on future demographic structures is increasing due to rapid aging. Korea's mortality rate is decreasing, but the declined gap is variable. In this study, we compare the Lee-Carter, Lee-Miller, Booth-Maindonald-Smith model and functional data model (FDM) as well as Coherent FDM using non-parametric smoothing technique. We are then examine a reasonable model for projecting on mortality declined rate trend in terms of accuracy of mortality rate by ages and life expectancy. The possibility of using non-parametric techniques for the prediction of mortality in Korea was also examined. Based on the analysis results, FDM and Coherent FDM, which uses the non-parametric technique and reflects the trend of recent data, are excellent. As a result, FDM and Coherent FDM are good fit, and predictability is also excellent assuming no significant future changes.

A study about flat mirror type solar thermal generation system to independently supply electricity on water resources management system (수자원 관리 시스템 독립 전력공급을 위한 평판형 태양열 발전 시스템 기초구현방안 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hun;Seo, Tae-Il;Jung, Seung-Kwon;Gwon, Yong-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.5067-5073
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    • 2015
  • Recently, various researches about water resources management system have been conducted in order to handle many problems, for example, climate change can provoke rapid change of water circulation, continuous population increase, population concentration phenomenon and so on. For population concentration region, many researches about water resources management system have been carried out, but many regions far away from civilization have not been handled as research topics. Especially these regions always need electricity supply infra, but significant costs will be required to construct the infra. Therefore this paper presents a methodology in order to generate the electricity from new renewable energy resources and supply the electricity into these region. For this, solar thermal generation system was experimentally studied. Moreover, this solar power generation system was considered as an important component to establish an ESS (Energy Storage System).

Marriage Between Spouses from the Same Native Place in Korea: Empirical Analysis (우리나라 동향결혼의 변화추세와 결정요인: 실증분석)

  • Jo, Dong-Hyuk;Park, Sun-Kwon;Sung, Nak-Il
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.109-138
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    • 2011
  • This study examines marriage between spouses from the same native place, suggests some stylized facts regarding the marriage type, and attempts to assess demographic, regional and economic factors which affect the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. Empirical analysis is carried out with original microdata on marriage over the period 1993-2009. Empirical results indicate that the birthplace of spouse played a less and less important role in marriage-related decision over time. Second, in addition to differences in a propensity to choose a person from the same native place as a spouse across regions, mobility and composition in population affected the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. For example, an influx of people into the capital region accelerated the chance of face-to-face communication between persons from the different birthplace, thereby decreasing the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. Finally, wider income gap between husband and wife led to lower probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. To the best of our knowledge, this study is one of the first empirical analysis to investigate into the relationship between marriage and birthplace.

Study on the factors that affect the fluctuations in the price of real estate for a digital economy (디지털 경제에 부동산 가격의 변동에 영향을 주는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2013
  • As people invest most of their asset in real estate, there is high interest in changing in housing and real estate prices in the future for a digital economy. Various variables are affecting the housing and real estate market. Among them, four variables : households, productive population, interest rate and index price are chosen and analyzed representatively. This study is aimed to build decision model of apartment prices in Seoul empirically. From the analysis result the stock index is the only variable which is significant statistically to apartments in Seoul. From this study, the households and productive population show the same direction as shown in the previous studies before but not significant statistically. Among the independent variables, the stock index is chosen as a major variable of determinant of Seoul apartment price. From the result of the research, prediction of stock market should be preceded to forecast the movement of housing and real estate market in the future.

Regional Comparative Analysis of the Economically Active Population Ratio by Sex (남녀별 경제활동참가율의 지역별 비교분석)

  • Park, Jong T.;Jang, Hee S.
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2014
  • It is important for regional comparative analysis about economically active population ratio by sex and total economically active population ratio to a policy data of central and local government. Through the result of comparative analysis, Central and local government can use policies distinctively according to the region and keep the efficiency of detail policy application. This paper shows regional comparative analysis about economically active population ratio by sex for the Seoul metropolitan region, Gangwon region, Chungcheong region, Youngnam region, Honam region using the economically active population survey data in 16 cities and provinces. We used the survey of economically active population for 13 years from 2000 to 2012, we calculated total economically active population ratio and economically active population ratio by sex about the 5 regions. And we analyzed the relative ratio between economically active population ratio of male and female by each region, we also analyzed the results of regional comparative analysis by sex.

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