• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.193-230
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• 2006

본 논문은 국가별 추계인구와 미래 9개년 인구관련 설명변수들의 추정값을 통하여 적정인구 모형을 구형하고 한국의 적정인구를 추정하는데 목적이 있다. 후생을 고려한 생산함수 확장모형, 세계 176개국의 표본자료 그리고 다중회귀분석을 이용하여 $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구를 추정하고 그 추세곡선을 나타내는 것이다. 모형의 종속변수는 UN에 의한 세계각국의 추계인구이고, 설명변수는 9개 변수 즉 PPP GDP, 인접지역 경제통합율, 교육수준, 영어구사비율, 국토유효면적, 에너지량, 기온, 수자원량, 무역거리이다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구는 $4,350{\sim}4,950$만명으로 추정되며, 2000년${\sim}$2050년은 $4,700{\sim}5,010$만명, 2050년${\sim}2100$년은 $4,770{\sim}4,400$만명이 된다. 2125년 최저점 4,350만명을 통과한 후 점진적으로 2300년의 4,870만명으로 접근해 갈 것으로 추정된다. 연구결과의 시사점은 네 가지이다. 첫째 한국의 적정인구가 2125년을 기준으로 이전은 감소 이후는 증가 추세일 것이므로 정책결정시 적정한 목표인구를 설정해야 한다는 점이다. 둘째 현 추세로 진행되면 2050년 이후 적정인구가 추계인구보다 $500{\sim}600$만명 더 많아진다는 점이다. 셋째 2125년 이전의 적정인구는 좁게 $4,770{\sim}4,545$만명으로서, 출산율 향상을 통한 적정인구의 유지 노력이 필요하다는 점이다. 넷째 적정인구 추세의 기복은 출산기피로 인한 인구감소 때문으로 출산지원과 입양 및 이민 유입의 정책에 따라 변화될 수 있다는 점이다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.27-49
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• 2010

This paper provides insight into some important features of the intergenerational resource allocation in Korea, before and after the financial crisis in 1997-98. Data sets of three periods before and after the financial crisis (1996, 2000, and 2005) were used to compare the results. This research particularly addresses two related issues: i) the generational effects of economic crisis, and ii) the capacity of age reallocation systems to spread economic risks across generations. The results show tremendous consumption smoothing and resource reallocation by age, during and after the financial crisis. Private education and private health consumption decreased for children between 1996 and 2000. However, the decrease in private education and private health consumption was mitigated by the increase in public consumption. It appears that the public sector did not only mitigate the adverse impact of the economic crisis on consumption, but it also reduced the widening disparity amongst generations. Within transfers, the public transfers for the elderly increased substantially as the private transfers decreased rapidly. Finally, there was a big increase in the asset-based reallocation of the elderly. The increase in asset-based reallocation was mainly due to an increase in asset income between 1996 and 2000, but it was almost entirely due to a decrease in saving (i.e. an increase in dissaving) between 2000 and 2005. This suggests that Korean elderly seemed to have some degree of supporting system during the crisis, even without sufficient pension benefits. The increased reliance on asset accumulation will be critical in the long-run in Korea, as public pension funds diminish due to population aging.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-101
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• 2014

The main objective of this study is to explain the differences in intergenerational resource transfers among the middle-aged at various income levels. Analyses of data on financial resource transfers from the 2nd wave of the Korean Retirement and Income Study were conducted. The study sample consisted of 931 middle-aged individuals who had at least one living parent and one child. The data analysis methods were ${\chi}^2$ analysis, one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA), logistic regression analysis, and multiple regression analysis. Financial resource transfers are statistically significant factors explaining the preparation for later life and life satisfaction of middle-aged individuals. The empirical results reveal that the frequency of intergenerational financial transfers was significantly higher in high-income households than in middle- and low- income households. A comparison of high-, middle- and low-income households shows that financial resource transfers had a greater influence on the preparation for later life and life satisfaction of the middle-aged in middle-income households than in low- or high-income households. The level of life satisfaction was dependent upon to whom middle-aged individuals gave financial resources. In the middle-income group, the middle-aged who gave financial resources to their parents were more likely to have higher life satisfaction than those who did not. Receiving financial transfers from parents or children did not have a statistically significant impact on the life satisfaction of the middle-aged in any income-level group.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2017

This study estimates the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on $CO_2$ emissions with a Quandt-Andrews test for detection of structural break with Annex B counties data. The structural break on $CO_2$ emissions took place in 2008 which is 3 year after ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. According to the empirical results, 1% increase in energy consumption leads to 1% and 0.31% increases in income before and after the structural break, respectively. This study also finds the monotonic increase relationship between $CO_2$ emission and income. Regarding to the relationship between renewable energy use and $CO_2$ emissions, 1% increase in renewable energy consumption leads to 0.1% decrease in $CO_2$ emissions until year 2007 and 0.09% decreases after year 2008, respectively. Based on the results of empirical study, we find little evidence of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on reduction of $CO_2$ emissions for Annex B countries.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.105-114
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• 2018

According to Statistics Korea, South Korea has entered the realm of the "aging society" with the rapid development of the country's population. Researchers anticipate that the extremely high (73%) ratio of real estate property to total assets for mid-age to aged households in South Korea that do not have a fixed income may cause serious problems in the future. For example, the real estate market in South Korea may be bombarded with properties listed for sale, causing the average property price to drop due to the abundant supply. Although this prediction may be reasonable, this concept has excluded the idea of pension (which is crucial as it can be considered a consistent and fixed income) due to the limited amount of available data thereon; as such, it is important to include this factor to improve the pertinent research. Thus, this research was conducted using the data from the $3^{rd}$ and $5^{th}$ Korea Retirement and Income Study. For the study results, it was found that variables such as net asset, gender, education, and number of family members have the same impact as that found in the previous studies. To extend from here, two new factors were introduced: the existence of pensions and the amount of pension received by a household. From there, it was found that the existence of a consistent and fixed income such as a pension has led to an increase in housing consumption, the area of interest of the authors.

• Korean small business review
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.87-110
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• 2019

The structural and sustainable implementation of the microfinance policy is required to be successful. To this end, the government should focus on availability and accessibility of the public microfinance, away from providing the beneficial financing (financial benefits)featured by the combination of the welfare and finance in the past. In addition, the government-sponsored microfinance needs to aim for performance-oriented evaluation that leads to stabilization of financial life of ordinary people or increase of income, moving away from conventional funding based on the scale and the quantity for the poor. It is necessary to implement the following policies in order for the Moon's administration to take the government-sponsored microfinance to the next level. The government-sponsored microfinance must be in the market failure domain, but nonetheless, it is required to be managed by structural and sustainable ways so that it complies with the market principles and does not crowd out the private microfinance. Last but not least, making the best use of the capital market function can be a way to fund social enterprises or social economy enterprises. This aims to enable catalyst capital in the capital market to play a prime role for the inflow of private capital for the purpose of creating the social value.

• 한국노년학
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.905-923
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting the conflict between grandparents raising grandchildren and adult children. The data were based on the panel survey to explore korean retirement and income study conducted by National Pension Service in 2009. For this study, 287 parenting grandparents rearing grandchild are selected from the survey. Included variables are a demographic factor, a economic factor, a caregiving-related factor, a health factor, and a family relationship factor. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, co-relation and logistic regression, with SPSS WIN 18.0 program. The results are as follows: First, when grandparents are male, older, highly educated, having no religion, and unemployed, a conflict with their adult children grows. Second, when grandparents do not have earned income or financial income, but have private income transfers, a conflict with their adult children is high. Third, when grandchildren are younger, there are no caregiving rewards, economic activities suspension or reduction because of caregiving, a conflict with their adult children is strong. Also, when grandparents' physical health is good, but their mental health is poor, a conflict with their adult children increases. Fourth, when grandparents' satisfactions with family relationship and spouse relationship are low, but their satisfaction with adult children relationship is high, a conflict with their adult children rises. This study suggests that unlike in the past, grandparents raising grandchildren can no longer make sacrifice themselves for their adult children, but they expect proper exchange between parents and children. Therefore, there needs to be understanding of grandparents raising grandchildren and further studies of a conflict between grandparents raising grandchildren their adult children.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.48
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• pp.113-149
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• 2002

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the decreasing effect of public and private income transfers on poverty rate. Two year data of Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS, 1998, 1999) are used for the analysis, and 1/2 of median income and 1/3 of mean income are adopted to measure poverty rate. Although private income transfer contributes more to reduce the rate than the public transfer, the main effect for decreasing poverty rate is forced by the wage. Statistically significant variables that affect to the exit of poverty based on the logistic regression analysis are number of family members(-), wage(+), property income(+), social insurance benefit(+), and the transfer income(+). Therefore, the future policy should be more related with the active labor market policy for developing better human resources among the poor family.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.119-128
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• 2002

In this paper, we consider the HB estimators of small area means with repeated survey. mao and Yu(1994) considered small area model with repeated survey data and proposed empirical best linear unbiased estimators. We propose a hierachical Bayes version of Rao and Yu by assigning prior distributions for unknown hyperparameters. We illustrate our HB estimator using very popular data in small area problem and then compare the results with the estimator of Census Bureau and other estimators previously proposed.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.257-289
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• 2004

이 연구의 목적은 중국의 도시화율을 재구성하고 그것을 바탕으로 과잉/과소 도시화 논쟁을 재점검하는 것이다. 연구는 과거에 발표된 도시화율에 비하여 2000년 센서스 보고서에 발표된 36.01%의 도시화율이 신뢰할만한 수치인가하는 질문에서 출발한다. 여기에 대한 답은 부정적이다. 따라서 이 연구는 유엔의 도시/농촌 인구성장 예측기법을 사용하여, 도시화율에 관한 두 세트의 시계열 자료를 재구성한다, 이 연구는 그 중 하나인 1982~2000년 자료를 바탕으로 과잉/과소 도시화 문제의 성격을 해명한다. 이 연구는 1인당 국민소득과 도시화의 관계를 해명하기 위한 두 종류의 회귀모형을 개발한다. 세계은행의 자료를 바탕으로 전세계의 경제발전과 도시화 수준에 관계에 관한 회귀방정식을 추정하고, 선형방정식보다 로그방정식이 예측력이 높음을 확인한다. 로그방정식의 추정결과에 따르면, 중국은 1978년 개혁${\cdot}$개방정책 이전에는 과잉 도시화되었고, 최근에 들어 오히려 도시화의 지체로 인한 과소 도시화의 문제가 통계적으로 유의미한 현상이 되고 있다. 분석의 결과는 중국이 1978년 시장경제를 도입한지 15년이 지난 이후에야 도시화 지체현상이 나타나고 있음에 주목하면서, 중국의 각종 도시정책이 도시발전에 강력한 장애물로 규제력을 행사하였음을 강조한다.