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Development and Validation of Career Barrier Scale for Career Interruption Women (경력단절여성 진로장벽 척도 개발 및 타당화)

  • Ae Ri Kim;Jin Kook Tak
    • The Korean Journal of Coaching Psychology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-50
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to identify career barrier factors experienced by career interruption women, develop a tool to measure career barrier, and verify their validity. To this end, preliminary questions were developed by reviewing literature, conducting one-on-one in-depth interviews with 10 women on career interruption, and conducting an open questionnaire with 100 women on career interruption. The subjects of the study were married women aged 20 to 54 who had past employment experience, wanted to be re-employed, and experienced retirement due to marriage, pregnancy, childbirth, childcare, and family care, and the period of career interruption was selected for more than one year. After that, 63 questions were selected for 7 factors. A preliminary survey was conducted on 300 women with career interruption in Korea, and as a result, 63 questions of 6 factors were derived through exploratory factor analysis. The main survey was conducted with 44 questions of 6 factors by partially modifying the questions reflecting the important concepts in each factor. In this survey of 600 people, in order to verify the validity of the constituent concept of this test, the entire sample was divided into two groups, and group 1 (G1, N=309) conducted exploratory factor analysis and group 2 (G2, N=291) conducted confirmatory factor analysis. As a result of exploratory factor analysis for Group 1, 34 questions of 6 factors were finally derived, and a confirmatory factor analysis of Group 2(G2) was conducted to confirm the model fit of the derived factors, and it was confirmed that the model fit criteria were met. In order to verify the convergence validity of the developed career barrier scale, a correlation analysis was conducted with the career barrier test for female college students, and as a result of the analysis, the career barrier scale for women with career interruption and the career barrier test for female college students showed statistically significant correlation. In order to verify the validity of the criterion, the results of a correlation analysis with variables of job preparation behavior, job stress, state anxiety, and life satisfaction were all found to be statistically significant. Finally, the academic, practical, and policy significance and limitations of this study and future research directions were presented.

Screening of Valuable Naked Oat (Avena sativa L.) Germplasms through Comparison of Agronomic Traits (주요 농업형질 비교를 통한 쌀귀리 유용 유전자원 탐색)

  • Jin-Cheon Park;Chang-Hyun Lee;Young-Mi Yoon;Yu-Young Lee;Myoung-Jae Shin;On-Sook Hur
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2024
  • Naked oat is particularly vulnerable to cold weather among cereal crops, and frequent lodging due to their long culm length. Also it is difficult to cultivate in double cropping system with rice because of late maturity in Korea. In this study, we charaterized 71 naked oat germplasms including two control varieties with agronomic traits, to select superior resources and use them for the improvement of exsiting varieties. The maturity date was May 26th for 'Joyang' and June 1st for 'Daeyang', and there were 5 resources including IT302003, which was earlier than Daeyang. In the case of culm length, the distribution ranged from 62 to 124 cm, and there were 13 resources, including IT209241, that were shorter than 'Joyang' (84 cm) and 'Daeyang' (83 cm). In correlation analysis of agronomic traits, the highest positive correlation (r=0.89) was observed between days to heading and days to maturity. In addition, culm length and spike length (r=0.72) and days to heading (r=0.50) showed a positive correlation. However, Barley yellow dwarf virus(BYDV) and grain yield (r=-0.30), lodging tolerance and liter weight (r=-0.37) showed a negative correlation. Cluster analysis, resources with similar traits such as liter weight, husk ratio, days to heading, and days to maturing were subclassified. Through this analysis, 6 resources, including IT302002 (X345-1-B4-20-1), which had short culm length, early maturity, and cold tolerance compared to 'Joyang' and 'Daeyang', were selected. Among the selected excellent resources, the avenanthramide content of the four resources was IT302002 (325.18 ㎍/g), K000010 (557.3㎍/g), K253299 (447.33 ㎍/g), and K253301 (440.49 ㎍/g), respectively, which was higher than 'Daeyang' (301.97 ㎍/g). These excellent resources will be used as breeding materials for the development of new varieties in the future.

A study on food behavior to related health and daily food intakes of female dormitory students according to BMI (체격지수에 따른 기숙사 여대생의 건강과 관련된 식행동과 영양소 섭취량에 대한 연구)

  • 강금지
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2001
  • This study was to investigate the behavior related to health, food habits, food consumption pattern and nutrient intakes of female students who residing in dormitory(self cooking) according to BMI(Body Mass Index). This study was carried out by questionnaired on June, 2000. Three hundred nine students were answered. The results were as follows: 1. The means of height, weight and BMI were 162.37$\pm$4.36cm, 52.48$\pm$5.54kg and 19.89$\pm$1.89. Under 20 of BMI among students were 53.1% and 20-25 of BMI were 46.9% of students. 2. In the self recognition of body shape, 63.4% of under weight subjects answered that their weight were normal. 73.1% of normal weight regard themselves more obese than their actual body shape normally shows. 51.2% of under weight subjects had attempted to control their weight. This results suggest that their weight control attempts were unnecessary. 3. 81.4% of subjects were answered irregular meals regardless BMI. 89.6% of subjects skipped breakfast. The main reasons were due to lack of time or not to eat proper food. Under weight subjects had less snack than normal weight subjects did(p '||'&'||'lt; 0.05). Normal weight subjects had more bun and cake than under weight subjects(p '||'&'||'gt; 0.05). 4. The consumption of vegetables and fruits were low regardless BMI. Mean energy, protein, Fe, Vit A, B$_1$, B$_2$, niacin, Vit C were above 75% of RDA, except calcium, in subjects. This study suggest that a comprehensive nutrition education program is need for college student in dormitory to improve their eating habits about skipping meal and breakfast and to increase the consumption of vegetables and fruits.

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Possibility of Establishing an International Court of Air and Space Law (국제항공우주재판소의 설립 가능성)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.139-161
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    • 2009
  • The idea of establishing an International Court of Air and Space Law (hereinafter referred to ICASL) is only my academic and practical opinion as first proposal in the global community. The establishment of the International Court of Air and Space Law can promote the speed and promote fairness of the trial in air and space law cases. The creation of an ICASL would lead to strengthening of the international cooperation deemed essential by the global community towards joint settlement in the transnational air and space cases, claims and would act as a catalyst for the efforts and solution on aircraft, satellite and space shuttle's accidents and cases and all manpower, information, trial and lawsuit to be centrally managed in an independent fashion to the benefit of global community. The aircraft, satellite and spacecraft's accidents attributes to the particular and different features between the road, railway and maritime's accidents. These aircraft, satellite and spacecraft's accidents have incurred many disputes between the victims and the air and space carriers in deciding on the limited or unlimited liability for compensation and the appraisal of damages caused by the aircraft's accidents, terror attack, satellite, space shuttle's accidents and space debris. This International Court of Air and Space Law could hear any claim growing out of both international air and space crash accidents and transnational accidents in which plaintiffs and defendants are from different nations. This alternative would eliminate the lack of uniformity of decisions under the air and space conventions, protocols and agreements. In addition, national courts would no longer have to apply their own choice of law analysis in choosing the applicable liability limits or un-limit for cases that do not fall under the air and space system. Thus, creation of an International Court of Air and Space Law would eliminate any disparity of damage awards among similarly situated passengers and shippers in nonmembers of air and space conventions, protocols, agreements and cases. Furthermore, I would like to explain the main items of the abovementioned Draft for the Convention or Statute of the International Court of Air and Space Law framed in comparison with the Statute of the International Court of Justice, the Statue of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and the Statute of the International Criminal Court. First of all, in order to create the International Court of Air and Space Law, it is necessary for us to legislate a Draft for the Convention on the Establishment of the International Court of Air and Space Law. This Draft for the Convention must include the elected method of judges, term, duty and competence of judge, chambers, jurisdiction, hearing and judgment of the ICASL. The members of the Court shall be elected by the General Assembly and Council of the ICAO and by the General Assembly and Legal Committee of the UNCOPUOS from a list of persons nominated by the national groups in the six continent (the North American, South American, African, Oceania and Asian Continent) and two international organization such as ICAO and UNCOPUOS. The members of the Court shall be elected for nine years and may be re-elected as one time. However, I would like to propose a creation an International Court of Air and Space Law in extending jurisdiction to the International Court of Justice at the Hague to in order to decide the air and space convention‘s cases. My personal opinion is that if an International Court on Air and Space Law will be created in future, it will be settled quickly and reasonably the difficulty and complicated disputes, cases or lawsuit between the wrongdoer and victims and the injured person caused by aircraft, satellite, spacecraft's accidents or hijacker and terrorists etc. on account of deciding the standard of judgment by judges of that’s court. It is indeed a great necessary and desirable for us to make a new Draft for the Convention on a creation of the International Court of Air and Space Law to handle international air and space crash litigation. I shall propose to make a new brief Draft for the Convention on the Creation of an International Court of Air and Space Law in the near future.

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End to End Model and Delay Performance for V2X in 5G (5G에서 V2X를 위한 End to End 모델 및 지연 성능 평가)

  • Bae, Kyoung Yul;Lee, Hong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2016
  • The advent of 5G mobile communications, which is expected in 2020, will provide many services such as Internet of Things (IoT) and vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic (V2X) communication. There are many requirements to realizing these services: reduced latency, high data rate and reliability, and real-time service. In particular, a high level of reliability and delay sensitivity with an increased data rate are very important for M2M, IoT, and Factory 4.0. Around the world, 5G standardization organizations have considered these services and grouped them to finally derive the technical requirements and service scenarios. The first scenario is broadcast services that use a high data rate for multiple cases of sporting events or emergencies. The second scenario is as support for e-Health, car reliability, etc.; the third scenario is related to VR games with delay sensitivity and real-time techniques. Recently, these groups have been forming agreements on the requirements for such scenarios and the target level. Various techniques are being studied to satisfy such requirements and are being discussed in the context of software-defined networking (SDN) as the next-generation network architecture. SDN is being used to standardize ONF and basically refers to a structure that separates signals for the control plane from the packets for the data plane. One of the best examples for low latency and high reliability is an intelligent traffic system (ITS) using V2X. Because a car passes a small cell of the 5G network very rapidly, the messages to be delivered in the event of an emergency have to be transported in a very short time. This is a typical example requiring high delay sensitivity. 5G has to support a high reliability and delay sensitivity requirements for V2X in the field of traffic control. For these reasons, V2X is a major application of critical delay. V2X (vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic) represents all types of communication methods applicable to road and vehicles. It refers to a connected or networked vehicle. V2X can be divided into three kinds of communications. First is the communication between a vehicle and infrastructure (vehicle-to-infrastructure; V2I). Second is the communication between a vehicle and another vehicle (vehicle-to-vehicle; V2V). Third is the communication between a vehicle and mobile equipment (vehicle-to-nomadic devices; V2N). This will be added in the future in various fields. Because the SDN structure is under consideration as the next-generation network architecture, the SDN architecture is significant. However, the centralized architecture of SDN can be considered as an unfavorable structure for delay-sensitive services because a centralized architecture is needed to communicate with many nodes and provide processing power. Therefore, in the case of emergency V2X communications, delay-related control functions require a tree supporting structure. For such a scenario, the architecture of the network processing the vehicle information is a major variable affecting delay. Because it is difficult to meet the desired level of delay sensitivity with a typical fully centralized SDN structure, research on the optimal size of an SDN for processing information is needed. This study examined the SDN architecture considering the V2X emergency delay requirements of a 5G network in the worst-case scenario and performed a system-level simulation on the speed of the car, radius, and cell tier to derive a range of cells for information transfer in SDN network. In the simulation, because 5G provides a sufficiently high data rate, the information for neighboring vehicle support to the car was assumed to be without errors. Furthermore, the 5G small cell was assumed to have a cell radius of 50-100 m, and the maximum speed of the vehicle was considered to be 30-200 km/h in order to examine the network architecture to minimize the delay.

Stock Identification of Todarodes pacificus in Northwest Pacific (북서태평양에 서식하는 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 계군 분석에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yun;Moon, Chang-Ho;Yoon, Moon-Geun;Kang, Chang-Keun;Kim, Kyung-Ryul;Na, Taehee;Choy, Eun Jung;Lee, Chung Il
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.292-302
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    • 2012
  • This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.

A Survey on the Status of Health Examination among Farmers in a Rural Area (일부 농촌지역 농업종사자들의 건강진단 수검 실태)

  • Park, Soon-Woo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1997
  • This study was carried out to reveal the status of health examination among farmers and to attract more attention to the health care system for farmers. Ten pre-trained medical students interviewed the rural residents 18 years of age and older in eight villages which were randomly selected from a county near Taegu city in Korea, in August 1996. Finally 751 persons were interviewed of whom the percentages of male and female were 41.8%, 58.2% respectively. Among the subjects, 361(48.3%) were fully engaged in farming, 184(24.4%) were partly engaged, and the remaining 206(27.3%) were not engaged in farming at all. The overall prevalence of farmer's disease was 23.0% and there was no significant difference between the group of fully engaged in farming(23.3%) and the group of not-fully engaged(22.9%). But the prevalence of farmer's disease in female subjects(27.8%) was significantly higher than that in male(16.2%)(p<0.01). Among the 288 farmer engaged in spraying pesticide, 113(39.2%) had experienced one or more pesticide related symptoms during last one year, but only 18(15.9%) of them had visited medical facilities due to their symptoms. The experience of receiving education about pesticide was significantly correlated with the degree of wearing protectors during pesticide spraying(p<0.001). Among the 736 persons excluding non-respondents, 281(38.2%) received health examination during last one year ; 176(62.6%) of them received free health examination, and 105(37.4%) received charged one. Among the 533 persons 40 years age and older, only 124(23.3%) had received the 'health examination for the elderly' during last one year, which is provided for the 40 years age and older by Korea medical insurance corporation and medical insurance societies. Most of all beneficiaries of self-employed medical insurance thought the imposed contributions as very expensive(77.4%) or moderately expensive(13.2%). The great majority of farmers are exposed to various health risk factors including pesticide, high temperature, overwork etc. comparable to industrial workers. But farmers are excluded from the regular yearly worker's health examination because of not belonging to a company despite they pay relatively more medical insurance contributions compared with the industrial workers and the urban self-employed medical insureds. It is necessary to develop special health management program for farmers such as the special health examination for the industrial workers exposed harmful agents.

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Rapid Rural-Urban Migration and the Rural Economy in Korea (한국(韓國)의 급격(急激)한 이촌향도형(離村向都型) 인구이동(人口移動)과 농촌경제(農村經濟))

  • Lee, Bun-song
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 1990
  • Two opposing views prevail regarding the economic impact of rural out-migration on the rural areas of origin. The optimistic neoclassical view argues that rapid rural out-migration is not detrimental to the income and welfare of the rural areas of origin, whereas Lipton (1980) argues the opposite. We developed our own alternative model for rural to urban migration, appropriate for rapidly developing economies such as Korea's. This model, which adopts international trade theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease to rural to urban migration issues, argues that rural to urban migration is caused mainly by two factors: first, the unprofitability of farming, and second, the decrease in demand for rural nontraded goods and the increase in demand for urban nontraded goods. The unprofitability of farming is caused by the increase in rural wages, which is induced by increasing urban wages in booming urban manufacturing sectors, and by the fact that the cost increases in farming cannot be shifted to consumers, because farm prices are fixed worldwide and because the income demand elasticity for farm products is very low. The demand for nontraded goods decreases in rural and increases in urban areas because population density and income in urban areas increase sharply, while those in rural areas decrease sharply, due to rapid rural to urban migration. Given that the market structure for nontraded goods-namely, service sectors including educational and health facilities-is mostly in monopolistically competitive, and that the demand for nontraded goods comes only from local sources, the urban service sector enjoys economies of scale, and can thus offer services at cheaper prices and in greater variety, whereas the rural service sector cannot enjoy the advantages offered by scale economies. Our view concerning the economic impact of rural to urban migration on rural areas of origin agrees with Lipton's pessimistic view that rural out-migration is detrimental to the income and welfare of rural areas. However, our reasons for the reduction of rural income are different from those in Lipton's model. Lipton argued that rural income and welfare deteriorate mainly because of a shortage of human capital, younger workers and talent resulting from selective rural out-migration. Instead, we believe that rural income declines, first, because a rapid rural-urban migration creates a further shortage of farm labor supplies and increases rural wages, and thus reduces further the profitability of farming and, second, because a rapid rural-urban migration causes a further decline of the rural service sectors. Empirical tests of our major hypotheses using Korean census data from 1966, 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 support our own model much more than the neoclassical or Lipton's models. A kun (county) with a large out-migration had a smaller proportion of younger working aged people in the population, and a smaller proportion of highly educated workers. But the productivity of farm workers, measured in terms of fall crops (rice) purchased by the government per farmer or per hectare of irrigated land, did not decline despite the loss of these youths and of human capital. The kun having had a large out-migration had a larger proportion of the population in the farm sector and a smaller proportion in the service sector. The kun having had a large out-migration also had a lower income measured in terms of the proportion of households receiving welfare payments or the amount of provincial taxes paid per household. The lower incomes of these kuns might explain why the kuns that experienced a large out-migration had difficulty in mechanizing farming. Our policy suggestions based on the tests of the currently prevailing hypotheses are as follows: 1) The main cause of farming difficulties is not a lack of human capital, but the in­crease in production costs due to rural wage increases combined with depressed farm output prices. Therefore, a more effective way of helping farm economies is by increasing farm output prices. However, we are not sure whether an increase in farm output prices is desirable in terms of efficiency. 2) It might be worthwhile to attempt to increase the size of farmland holdings per farm household so that the mechanization of farming can be achieved more easily. 3) A kun with large out-migration suffers a deterioration in income and welfare. Therefore, the government should provide a form of subsidization similar to the adjustment assistance provided for international trade. This assistance should not be related to the level of farm output. Otherwise, there is a possibility that we might encourage farm production which would not be profitable in the absence of subsidies. 4) Government intervention in agricultural research and its dissemination, and large-scale social overhead projects in rural areas, carried out by the Korean government, might be desirable from both efficiency and equity points of view. Government interventions in research are justified because of the problems associated with the appropriation of knowledge, and government actions on large-scale projects are justified because they required collective action.

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The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.