• Title/Summary/Keyword: 음의 오차

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A Study on the Collision Risk Perception Index to OOW's According to Vessel Encountering Situations (선박조우 상황별 항해당직자의 충돌위기체감지수에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.98-107
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is for Human error prevention to acquire Collision Risk Perception Index (CRPI) sensed by the Officer Of the Watch (OOW) when the approaching distances are reduced in six types of ship encountering situations (Head on, $045^{\circ}$, $090^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$, Overtaking, Overtaken) between own ship and a target ship and then to predict CRPI fitting coefficients with polynomials in the curve-fitting process. CRPI acquisition experiments are carried out on two coast-guard ships and with the total of 30 crew members. Analysing results shows that CRPI data have goodness of fit to the six types of encountering situation. Futhermore, the One-Way ANOVA results show that CRPI has a negative affect to the OOW's age, career and license grade as the approaching distances is reduced. The availability of CRPI curve fitting with 3 degrees of polynomial was testified through the RMSE as 1.19 to Head on, 0.87 to $045^{\circ}$, 0.81 to $090^{\circ}$, 0.71 to $135^{\circ}$, 1.29 to Overtaking and 0.87 to Overtaken.

Estimating the Determinants for Transaction Value of B2B (Business-to-Business): A Panel Data Model Approach (패널 데이터모형을 이용한 기업간전자상거래 거래액 결정요인 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Dae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2010
  • Transaction value of business-to-business(B2B) is composed of various factors for groups and time series. In this paper, we use the panel data for finding various variables and using this we analyse the factors that is major influence to transaction value of business-to-business. For analysis we looked at transaction value of business-to-business of 7 groups such as manufacturing industry, electric, gas and piped water industry, construction industry, retail & wholesale trade, traffic industry, publish, image; broad-casting & telecommunication and information service industry, etc. In our analysis we looked at the transaction value of business-to-business during the period from 2005.01 to 2009.12. We examined the data in relation to the transaction value of cyber shopping mall, company bond, composite stock price index, transaction value of credit card, loaned rate of interest in deposit bank, rate of exchange looking at the factors which determine the transaction value of business-to-business, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the transaction value of cyber shopping mall, composite stock price index and loaned rate of interest in deposit bank, rate of exchange. The company bond is negative relationship, transaction value of credit card is positive relationship and they are not significant variables in terms of the transaction value of business-to-business.

Comparison Study on the Various Forms of Scale Parameter for the Nonstationary Gumbel Model (다양한 규모매개변수를 이용한 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Jang, Hanjin;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2015
  • Most nonstationary frequency models are defined as the probability models containing the time-dependent parameters. For frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data, the Gumbel distribution is generally recommended in Korea. For the nonstationary Gumbel models, the time-dependent location and scale parameters are defined as linear and exponential relationship, respectively. The exponentially time-varying scale parameter of nonstationary Gumbel model is generally used because the scale parameter should be positive. However, the exponential form of scale parameter occasionally provides overestimated quantiles. In this study, various forms of time-varying scale parameters such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic forms were proposed and compared. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. To compare the accuracy of each scale parameter, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for various conditions. Additionally, nonstationary frequency analysis was conducted for the sites which have more than 30 years data with a trend in rainfall data. As a result, nonstationary Gumbel model with exponentially time-varying scale parameter generally has the smallest root mean square error comparing with another forms.

A Study on the Effect of Changes in Oil Price on Dry Bulk Freight Rates and Intercorrelations between Dry Bulk Freight Rates (국제유가의 변화가 건화물선 운임에 미치는 영향과 건화물선 운임간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.217-240
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    • 2011
  • In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

Estimating the Determinants of Loan Amount of Housing Mortgage : A Panel Data Model Approach (주택 담보 가계 대출액 결정요인 추정에 관한 패널 데이터 모형 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2011
  • Loan amount of housing mortgage is composed of various factors. This study paper studies focuses on estimating the determinants of a loan amount of housing mortgage. The region for analysis consist of seven groups, that is, metropolitan city (such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangiu, Daejeon, Ulsan.) and Seoul. Analyzing period be formed over a 45 time points(2007. 01.~ 2010. 09). In this paper the dependent variable setting up loan amount of housing mortgage, explanatory(independent) variables are composed of the consumer price index, unemployment rate, average monthly household income per household, expenditure rate of health care, composite stock price index and overdue rate of household loans for commercial bank. In looking at the factors which determine loan amount of housing mortgage, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the consumer price index and unemployment rate. The study also produced evidence supporting the view that there is a significant negative relationship between expenditure rate of health care. The study found that average monthly household income per household, expenditure, composite stock price index and overdue rate of household loans for commercial bank were not significant variables. The implications of these findings are discussed for further research.

Marginal Effect Analysis of Travel Behavior by Count Data Model (가산자료모형을 기초로 한 통행행태의 한계효과분석)

  • 장태연
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2003
  • In general, the linear regression model has been used to estimate trip generation in the travel demand forecasting procedure. However, the model suffers from several methodological limitations. First, trips as a dependent variable with non-negative integer show discrete distribution but the model assumes that the dependent variable is continuously distributed between -$\infty$ and +$\infty$. Second, the model may produce negative estimates. Third, even if estimated trips are within the valid range, the model offers only forecasted trips without discrete probability distribution of them. To overcome these limitations, a poisson model with a assumption of equidispersion has frequently been used to analyze count data such as trip frequencies. However, if the variance of data is greater than the mean. the poisson model tends to underestimate errors, resulting in unreliable estimates. Using overdispersion test, this study proved that the poisson model is not appropriate and by using Vuong test, zero inflated negative binomial model is optimal. Model reliability was checked by likelihood test and the accuracy of model by Theil inequality coefficient as well. Finally, marginal effect of the change of socio-demographic characteristics of households on trips was analyzed.

Study on the Forecasting and Effecting Factor of BDI by VECM (VECM에 의한 BDI 예측과 영향요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.546-554
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    • 2018
  • The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

Underwater object radial velocity estimation method using two different band hyperbolic frequency modulation pulses with opposite sweep directions and its performance analysis (두 대역 상반된 스윕방향 hyperbolic frequency modulation 펄스로 수중물체 시선속도추정 기법 및 성능분석)

  • Chomgun Cho;Euicheol Jeong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2023
  • In order to estimate the radial speed of an underwater object so-called target with active sonar, Continuous Wave (CW) pulse is generally used, but if a target is slow and at near distance, it is not easy to estimate the radial velocity of the target due to acoustic reverberation in the ocean. In 2017, Wang et al. utilized broadband signal of two Hyperbolic Frequency Modulation (HFM) pulses, which is known as a doppler-invariant pulse, with equal frequency band and in opposite sweep directions to overcome this problem and successfully estimate the radial speed of slow-moving nearby target. They demonstrated the estimation of the radial velocity with computer simulation using the parameters of two HFM starting time differences and receiving times. However, for it uses two HFM pulses with equal frequency, cross-correlation between the two pulses negatively affect the detection performance. To mitigate this cross-correlation effect, we suggest using two different band HFM with the opposite sweep directions. In this paper, a method of radial velocity estimation is derived and simulated using two HFM pulses with the pulse length of 1 second and bandwidth of 400 Hz. Applying the suggested method, the radial velocity was estimated with approximately 6 % of relative error in the simulation.

Institutional Factors Affecting Faculty Startups and Their Performance in Korea: A Panel Data Analysis (대학의 기관특성이 교원창업 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 패널 데이터 분석)

  • Jong-woon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 2024
  • This paper adopts a resource-based approach to analyze why some universities have a greater number of faculty startups, and how this impacts on performance, in terms of indictors such as the number of employees and revenue sales. More specifically, we propose 9 hypotheses which link institutional resources to faculty startups and their performance, and compare 5 different groups of university resources for cross-college variation, using data from 134 South Korean four-year universities from 2017 to 2020. We find that the institutional factors impacting on performance of faculty startups differ from other categories of startups. The results show that it is important for universities to provide a more favorable environment, incorporating more flexible personnel policies and accompanying startup support infrastructure, for faculty startups, whilest it is more effective to have more financial resources and intellectual property for other categories of startups. Our findings also indicate that university technology-holding company and technology transfer programs are crucial to increase the number of faculty startups and their performance. Our analysis results have implications for both university and government policy-makers, endeavoring to facilitate higher particaption of professors in startup formation and ultimate commercialization of associated teachnologies.

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Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2021
  • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.