• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험성예측모델

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Consequence Analysis of Hydrogen Filling Stations based on Cascade Compressing Systems (케스케이드 방식 압축시스템 기반의 수소충전소에 대한 정성적 위험성평가)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Jun;Rhim, Jong-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2021
  • Because of the recent expansion of hydrogen vehicle supply, the installation of hydrogen filling station is expected to gradually expand. This study attempts to predict the damage scale and propose a safer design form based on the scenario that assumes the worst case of a hydrogen station. A Flacs solver using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to predict the damage scale, and the accuracy was verified by comparing it with the experimental results of previous researchers. The damage scale prediction was conducted for hydrogen leakage and explosion, and the prediction target was the KR model based on the measured values. And as a comparative review model, a roofless model was selected without a ceiling. As a result of analyzing the two models, it was possible to confirm the accumulation and retention of hydrogen gas up to 60 vol% or more in the KR model, whereas in the case of the Roofless model, the phenomenon of discharge and diffusion to the outside of the charging station by riding the wall after leakage. I was able to check. In conclusion, it was reviewed that the type of hydrogen charging station without ceiling is more advantageous for safety than the hydrogen filling station model.

정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 화력발전소 보일러 프로세스의 고장진단

  • 김응석;오영일;변승현
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.169-169
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    • 1999
  • 최근 산업 플랜트의 공정제어 시스템은 복잡하고 대규모화되어 고장 발생시 경제적 손실과 위험성이 증폭되어 규정된 안정서와 신뢰성 확보가 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 고장검출 및 진단기법은 시스템의 신뢰성을 높이기 위한 효과적인 방안을 연구하는 것으로 현대에 들어서 많은 학자들의 관심을 끌고 있으며 실제 계통에 점차적으로 응용되고 있다. 현재까지 개발된 고장검출 및 진단기법은 사용된 프로세스 모델의 형태, 고장검출 진단 알고리즘에 따라 다양하게 분류 될 수 있으며 일반적으로 사용된 모델에 따라 크게 1) 정량적 모델에 근거한 해석적 기법, 2) 정성적 모델에 근거한 기법, 3) 지식기반 진단 기법으로 구분 할 수 있다. 이중 정량적 모델 기법은 대상계통의 수학적 모델에 근거하여 운전 데이터를 분석함으로서 고장검출 진단을 수행하는 해석적 기법으로서 근본적으로 계통의 정확한 수학적 모델을 요구하므로 불확실성을 포함한 계통 및 비선형성이 강한 계통등에는 적용이 곤란하다. 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법은 정량적 진단 기법과는 달리 대상 프로세스에 대한 수학적 모델 대신에 운전자의 경험과 프로세스 변수간의 상호 작용 및 고장의 전파과정, 고장원인과 증상과의 직접적인 관계에 대한 구조적 지식에 근거한 것으로 고장원인에 대한 계통의 동작을 추론 할 수 있으며, 상황 변화에 따른 영향을 예측할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법에 근거한 고장검출 및 진단 기술을 화력 발전소 보일로 프로세스에 적용하여 정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 설비의 고장을 조기에 발견하여 고장 파급으로 인한 발전 정지 및 설비의 손상 확대를 방지하고 고장 발생시 신속한 원인 규명 및 후속 조치관련 정보들을 운전원에게 제공할 목적으로 현재 전력원에서 개발중인 지능형 경보시스템에 대하여 기술하고자 한다.음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 다음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 부딛힘이 없이 공존하고 일상의 논리가 무시된다. 부정, 의심이 없고 확실한 것이 없다. 한 대상에 가졌던 생각이 다른 대상에 옮겨간다(displacement). 한 대상이 여러 대상이 갖고 있는 의미를 함축하고 있다(condensation). 시각적인 순서가 무시된다. 마음속의 생각과 외부의 실제적인 일을 구분하지 못한다. 시간 상의 순서가 있다가 없다가 한다. 차례로 일어나야 할 일이 동시에 한꺼번에 일어난다. 대상들이 서로 비슷해지고 동시에 있을 수 없는 대상들이 함께 나타난다. 사고의 정상적인 구조가 와해된다. Matte-Blance는 무의식에서는 여러 독립된 대상들간의 구분을 없애며, 주체와 객체를 하나로 보려는 대칭화(symmetrization)의 경향이 있기 때문에 이런 변화가 생긴다고 하였다. 또 대칭화가 진행되면 무한대의 느낌을 갖게 되어, 전지(moniscience), 전능(omnipotence), 무력감(impotence), 이상화(idealization)가 나타난다. 그러나 무의식에 대칭화만 있는 것은 아니며, 의식의 사고양식인 비대칭도 어느 정도 나타나며, 대칭화의 정도에 따라, 대상들이 잘 구분되어 있는 단계, 의식수준의 감정단계, 집단 내에서의 대칭화 단계, 집단간에서의 대칭화 단계, 구분이 없어지는 단계로 구분하였다.systems. We believe that this taxonomy is a significant contribution because it adds clarity, completeness, and "global perspective" to workflow architectural discussions. The vocabulary suggested here

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Risk Ranking Analysis for the City-Gas Pipelines in the Underground Laying Facilities (지하매설물 중 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 위험성 서열화 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2004
  • In this article, we are to suggest the hazard-assessing method for the underground pipelines, and find out the pipeline-maintenance schemes of high efficiency in cost. Three kinds of methods are applied in order to refer to the approaching methods of listing the hazards for the underground pipelines: the first is RBI(Risk Based Inspection), which firstly assess the effect of the neighboring population, the dimension, thickness of pipe, and working time. It enables us to estimate quantitatively the risk exposure. The second is the scoring system which is based on the environmental factors of the buried pipelines. Last we quantify the frequency of the releases using the present THOMAS' theory. In this work, as a result of assessing the hazard of it using SPC scheme, the hazard score related to how the gas pipelines erodes indicate the numbers from 30 to 70, which means that the assessing criteria define well the relative hazards of actual pipelines. Therefore. even if one pipeline region is relatively low score, it can have the high frequency of leakage due to its longer length. The acceptable limit of the release frequency of pipeline shows 2.50E-2 to 1.00E-l/yr, from which we must take the appropriate actions to have the consequence to be less than the acceptable region. The prediction of total frequency using regression analysis shows the limit operating time of pipeline is the range of 11 to 13 years, which is well consistent with that of the actual pipeline. Concludingly, the hazard-listing scheme suggested in this research will be very effectively applied to maintaining the underground pipelines.

The Growth Kinetics of S. aureus Inoculated onto Potentially High Risk Foods in School Foodservice Operations (학교급식에서의 잠정적 위험식품에 접종된 Staphylococcus aureus의 증식변화)

  • Choi, Jung-Hwa;Kim, Eun-Jung;Yoon, Ki-Sun;Kwak, Tong-Kyung
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to model the kinetics of S. aureus survival on high risk foods in school foodservice operations. After inoculating S. aureus ATCC25923 onto the various high risk foods, the effects of competitive microorganism, storage temperatures($25^{\circ}C$, $35^{\circ}C$), and initial contamination levels ($1.0{\times}10^2\;CFU/g$, $1.0{\times}10^5\;CFU/g$) on the growth of S. aureus were investigated. Lag time decreased and specific growth rate increased with a storage temperature ($25^{\circ}C$<$35^{\circ}C$) and with a higher initial inoculation level ($1.0{\times}10^2\;CFU/g$<$1.0{\times}10^5\;CFU/g$). Previously it was shown that S. aureus is a weaker competitor than other organisms, but it proliferates aggressively in a noncompetitive environment. However, in our study, when S. aureus was used to inoculate japchae (glass noodles with sauteed vegetables) and meat ball, the growth of S. aureus was similar and more active with competitive organisms than that without competitive organisms. Regardless of other factors, the initial level of S. aureus was a more significant factor of the growth. High inoculation levels of S. aureus were reached at 6 log CFU/g within 3 hours. An incubation temperature of $35^{\circ}C$ and the animal protein component of menu items also were identified as significant factors influencing the growth of S. aureus. Therefore, the duration of time meals are stored before serving should be considered a critical control point. Food service providers must control time and temperature to insure the safety of cooked foods.

A Study on the Correlation between Coal Mining Subsidence and Underground Goaf (페탄광지역의 지반침하발생과 지하 채굴적의 상관관계 연구)

  • Choi, Jong-Kuk;Kim, Ki-Dong;Song, Kyo-Young;Jo, Min-Jeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.453-464
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    • 2008
  • This study is to examine a relation between coal mining subsidence occurrence at abandoned underground coal mines and underground goaf with respect to surface geology, subsurface structure, depth and thickness of coal beds and the distribution of drifts. A study is carried out at the site where susceptibility of coal mining subsidence was proven high in a previous study. In that previous study, the susceptibility of coal mining subsidence was spatially analyzed by GIS using digitized geological maps, investigation reports, digitized mining tunnel maps without consideration of subsurface structure and the multi-level arrangement of drifts. Here we analyze geological characteristics around the goaf and the distribution of coal seam based upon digitized geological maps and investigation reports on the study area. And digitized mining tunnel maps are also used to analyze the depth and multi-level arrangement of drifts. The results show that weakened surface rock strength, relatively shallow depth and large thickness of coal seam below the surface are closely related to the coal mining subsidence occurrence. Complicatedly inter-connected drifts, shallow depth of drifts and surface rock fractures are revealed as additional control factors affecting coal mining subsidence. These factors examined in this study as well as original factors should be taken into account for the quantitative estimation of coal mining subsidence occurrence at abandoned underground coal mine.

Prognostics and Health Management for Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Electrochemistry Model: A Tutorial (배터리 잔존 유효 수명 예측을 위한 전기화학 모델 기반 고장 예지 및 건전성 관리 기술)

  • Choi, Yohwan;Kim, Hongseok
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.939-949
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    • 2017
  • Prognostics and health management(PHM) is actively utilized by industry as an essential technology focusing on accurately monitoring the health state of a system and predicting the remaining useful life(RUL). An effective PHM is expected to reduce maintenance costs as well as improve safety of system by preventing failure in advance. With these advantages, PHM can be applied to the battery system which is a core element to provide electricity for devices with mobility, since battery faults could lead to operational downtime, performance degradation, and even catastrophic loss of human life by unexpected explosion due to non-linear characteristics of battery. In this paper we mainly review a recent progress on various models for predicting RUL of battery with high accuracy satisfying the given confidence interval level. Moreover, performance evaluation metrics for battery prognostics are presented in detail to show the strength of these metrics compared to the traditional ones used in the existing forecasting applications.

Storm Surge Analysis using Archimedean Copulas (Copulas에 기반한 우리나라 동해안 폭풍해일 분석)

  • Hwang, Jeongwoo;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.421-421
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    • 2017
  • In order to secure the safety of coastal areas from the continuous storm surge in Korea, it is important to predict the wave movement and properties accurately during the storm event. To improve the accuracy of the storm simulation, and to quantify coastal risks from the storm event, the dependencies between wave height, wave period, and storm duration should be analyzed. In this study, therefore, copulas were used to develop multivariate statistical models of sea storms. A case study of the east coast of Korea was conducted, and the dependencies between wave height, wave period, water level, storm duration and storm interarrival time were investigated using Kendall's tau correlation coefficient. As a result of the study, only wave height, wave period, and storm duration appeared to be correlated.

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Factors Influencing on Purchase Intention for an Autonomous Driving Car -Focusing on Extended TAM- (자율주행자동차 구매의도에 미치는 영향요인 연구 -확장된 기술수용모델을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hae-Youn;Sung, Dong-Kyoo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.81-100
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated the influential factor over the intention to buy autonomous driving car by applying extended technology acceptance model (TAM2). To this end, 117 ordinary persons experienced in driving car were analyzed by using SEM(Structural Equation Modeling). Analysis shows that the perceived usefulness and purchase intention is positively affected by social influence and recognized risk. It is found that perceived usefulness is not affected, but purchase intention is positively affected in the case of innovation. On the contrary, analysis shows that driving capability and car playfulness recognized by individual have no influence on the perceived easiness. Although the result that driving capability recognized by individual negatively affects perceived usefulness was not included in the study hypothesis, it was remarkable. Generalizing the above result, it is found that social influence, innovation and recognized risk as variables which affect the intention to buy autonomous car play the role of significant variable. This study is meaningful in that such result can foresee the perception of preliminary accommodators of new technology of the 4th industrial revolution, autonomous driving car.

Research on black ice detection using IoT sensors - Building a demonstration infrastructure - (IoT 센서를 이용한 블랙아이스 탐지에 관한 연구 - 실증 인프라 구축 -)

  • Min Woo Son;Byun Hyun Lee;Byung Sik Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.263-263
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    • 2023
  • 블랙아이스는 눈에 쉽게 구분되지 않아 많은 교통사고를 초래하고 있다. 한국교통연구원 교통사고분석시스템에 따르면, 2017년부터 2021년까지 5년간의 서리/결빙으로 인한 교통사고 사망자는 122명, 적설로 인한 교통사고 사망자는 40명으로, 블랙아이스는 적설에 비해 위험성이 높은 것으로 나타난다. 과거의 다양한 연구에서 블랙아이스 생성조건을 기압과 한기 축적등의 조건에서 예측해왔지만, 이러한 기상학적 모델은 봄철 해빙기의 일교차로 인한 눈의 해동과 재냉각과 같은 다양한 기상 조건에서의 블랙아이스 탐지가 어렵다는 한계가 있어 최근에는 이미지 판별과 딥러닝모델(YOLO 등)을 기반으로 한 센서가 제시되고 있다. 그러나, 이러한 방법은 충분한 컴퓨팅 자원이 뒷받침되어야 하며, 블랙아이스 탐지까지 걸리는 속도가 빠르지 못한 편으로, 블랙아이스 초입 구간에서의 제동에 취약하다는 잠재적인 약점을 가지고 있다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 블랙아이스의 주 원인인 서리나 어는비가 발생하기 위해서 주변 공기가 이슬점 온도 이하, 노면온도와 이슬점이 어는점보다 낮아야 함을 이용, IoT 센서 모듈을 통해 Magnus 방정식으로 계산한 이슬점 온도와 노면 온도를 사용하는 이동식 블랙아이스 추정 장치를 제시한다. 본 장치는 대기압, 온도, 습도로부터 계산된 이슬점 온도와 노면 온도를 통한 서리발생 가능성과 대기 온도, 노면 온도를 통해 어는비의 발생환경 여부를 계산한다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 블랙아이스 추정과 기상정보 생산을 동시에 가능케 하며, 추정 결과를 통합 수집서버에 전송함으로서 운전자에게 전방 블랙아이스 위험 구간을 조기에 전달하는 시스템과 이를 관리하기 위한 인프라를 구축하여 운전 시 결빙 미끄러짐 사고를 저감하고자 한다.

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Development of Modeling Technique for Prediction of Driving Force and Kinetic Resistance of Agricultural Forklift (농업용 포크리프트의 구동력 및 운동저항 예측을 위한 모델링 기법 개발)

  • Jo, Jae-hyun;Kim, Jun-tae;Jeong, Jin-hyoung;Chang, Young-yoon;Park, Won-yeop;Lee, Sang-sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.299-305
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    • 2019
  • This study was initiated to solve the difficulties of aged and female workers in agriculture society due to aging and demise of young people. In the case of the conventional elevated lift, the risk of exposure to uneven road or work environment, not the difficulty of professional qualification and operation, and the risk of exposure to the uneven road or working environment, were also studied based on previous researches so that women could easily and efficiently perform productive agriculture. First, the simulation was carried out through the prediction model of traction performance using the object of agricultural forklift, and the soil of the Kimhae city in Gyeongnam (34.125kPa, internal friction angle 35.294deg, external friction angle 13.620deg, Adhesion force 5.750 kPa, average cone index 0-15 cm cl, 1001.8 kPa). In the case of the forklift for simulation, the driving force and the kinetic resistance prediction modeling of the agricultural electric forklift are modeled. Based on this model, the motor control drive adopts the 1232E model, which is a drive dedicated to AC motor, and divides the two drivers into master and slave And the model for the simulation was designed to control motor drive, hydraulic drive, and various outputs on the main PCB. The simulation model is undergoing continuous simulation, modification and supplementation. Based on this research, we will continue research for development of safer and more efficient agricultural electric forklift.