• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험도모델

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Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Related Risk Factors of Elderly Residents in Andong Rural Area 2. Based on the Biochemical Measurements and Nutrient Intakes (안동 농촌지역 중년 및 노인 주민의 대사증후군 유병율과 관련 위험요인 분석 2. 생화학 측정결과와 영양소 섭취를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hye-Sang;Kwon, Chong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.39 no.10
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    • pp.1459-1466
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    • 2010
  • This study was performed to identify the association between the metabolic syndrome and the biochemical measurements and nutrient intakes. A total of 1,431 people (533 males, 898 females) aged over 45 years living in Andong rural area participated in this study in 2003. Plasma aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), $\gamma$-glutamyl transferase ($\gamma$-GT) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) levels in metabolic syndrome were significantly higher than those in normal group. In multiple logistic regression, those biochemical measurements were found to be positively associated with the metabolic syndrome as the adjusted odds ratios (OR) 1.839 (p<0.001) by AST, 2.302 (p<0.01) by ALT, 2.143 (p<0.001) by $\gamma$-GT, and 1.874 (p<0.001) by TBARS. We also found that the increased level of those measurements tended to be strongly associated with high triglyceride among the metabolic syndrome components. However, the nutrient intakes between the metabolic syndrome and the normal group were not significantly different. Also, we could not find any nutrient intakes significantly associated with the metabolic syndrome, except high carbohydrate intake (>70% of kcal) compared to normal intake (55~70% of kcal) showed OR 0.781 (p<0.05). In analyzing the association of nutrient intakes with metabolic syndrome components, we found that the calorie intake was negatively associated with abdominal obesity (OR 0.696, p<0.05) and high fat intake (>25% of kcal) was positively associated with low HDL-cholesterol (OR 1.864, p<0.05). This study revealed that the biochemical measurements, such as plasma AST, ALT, $\gamma$-GT, and TBARS, are associated with metabolic syndrome, but considering the nutrient intakes, we suggest that further studies are needed to identify the associations.

An Economic Approach for Improvement of Radius for Hazarouds Road (위험도로 곡선반경 개선의 경제적 접근에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hyun;Yoon, Pan;Park, Je-Jin;Kim, Young-Woon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2003
  • The Government presented improvement plans such as "Traffic Accident Frequent Point" and "Hazardous Roads" to reduce traffic accidents on the increase after 1980s. In case of the hazardous roads, they are expressed by grades which are marked by geometric elements such as width, radius, grade. sight distance. and other environmental factors. As each business for improving roads goes by only focusing on improvement of geometric elements, excessive expense can be invested too much nowadays causing economical waste. Therefore, as improvement plans approached by economic access are needed, this paper shows the cost-effective improvement of the business to keep safety related to traffic accident and economical waste. The hazardous roads which authorized by Gwang-ju National Road Preservation Office of Construction and Transportation Ministry in 1995 for business for improvement of roads, were investigated before 1999. First of all, estimating traffic accident models are presented by using existed data statistically. The models help to maximize traffic accident decrease through control of the presented factor. Secondly, optimum construction cost of improvement is presented to prevent overcapitalization. However, this paper is limited because it was difficult to sort the data with various areas and to approach various ways.

Variation of Beach Processes and Harbor Sedimentation in an Area of Large Tide (소형선박의 충돌위험도 분석을 위한 VTS 관제구역내 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Suk;Kim, Joo-Sung;Kim, Kwang-Il;Song, Chae-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2019.11a
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    • pp.34-35
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the risk of collision accidents to the VTSOs(Vessel Traffic Service Operators) as small vessels are expanded for monitoring targets. For this purpose, the risks of accidents and quasi-incidents involving small ships in the VTS area were analyzed by the collision risk model(CoRI) from the view-point of VTSOs. In addition, by analyzing risk of whether or not small vessels are included in the monitoring target by CoRI, we will contribute to the preparation of a proper range of the vessel for monitoring taget through various case studies in the future.

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Flash flood risk indicator for ungauged area of Seoul metropolitan region (수도권 미계측지역에 대한 돌발홍수위험도 산정 연구)

  • Lee, Byong Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.94-94
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    • 2016
  • 돌발홍수는 수십 $km^2$ 이하의 유역에서 강우가 발생한 후 6시간 이내의 단시간에 홍수징후가 나타나는 현상으로 정의될 수 있다. 돌발홍수를 잘 예측하기 위해서는 국지적으로 발생하는 집중 호우를 잘 예측해야 하며 유역내 공간적인 수문반응해석을 통해 돌발홍수를 예측하는 기술이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 유역내 공간적인 수문반응을 잘 모의하기 위해 TOPLATS 지표해석모형을 이용하였다. TOPLATS(TOPMODEL based Land Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) 모형은 물수지와 에너지수지를 통해 단위격자에 대한 실제증발산량, 토양수분량, 지하수면깊이, 지표유출량, 잠열, 현열, 지열, 순복사량 등을 모의하며 소유역단위로 지하수면깊이를 재분포시키는 특성을 가지고 있다. 돌발홍수 위험도를 산정하기 위해 실제 돌발홍수 피해사례를 조사하였으며 피해지역과 대응되는 격자 수문성분과의 상관성 분석을 통해 돌발홍수 위험도 모형을 산정하였다. 대상지역은 수도권 전체지역을 모의하기 위해 한강, 임진강, 안성천 유역을 대상지역으로 선정하였다. 수도권 지역은 약 11,930 km2이며 2009~2012년동안 총 38건의 돌발홍수 피해사례가 신고되었다. 기상자료는 기상청 AWS와 ASOS 시단위 강우, 기온, 상대습도, 풍속, 일조, 기압자료를 이용하였다. 돌발홍수 피해사례 38건에 대해 대응되는 모의격자의 수문성분을 분석하였으며 27(71%)에서 구조요청시점에 대해 강우량, 지표유출량, 토양수분량, 지하수면깊이가 적절하게 모의되는 것을 확인하였다. 강우조건에 따른 돌발홍수 위험도는 구조요청시점 기준 선행시간 4~6시간까지 71~87%, 구조요청시점으로 한정된 0시간에서는 42~52%로 나타났다. 이상의 결과로부터 지표해석모델을 이용한 격자 수문성분과 통계적 돌발홍수지수모형으로부터 산정된 돌발홍수 위험도는 산지 미계측지역에 대한 돌발홍수를 예측하는데 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Establishing Probability-Based Warrants for Left-Turn Lanes at Unsignalized Intersections (확률기반 비신호교차로의 좌회전 전용차로 설치 기준 정립)

  • Moon, Jaepil
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.42-54
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    • 2018
  • This study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of left-turn lanes in unsignalized intersections based on a risk probability methodology. This study applied a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision between a left-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. With the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes, opposing volumes and the percentage of left-turns for a two-lane and four-land highway, respectively. The warrants of installing left-turn lanes on unsignalized intersections were developed with the risk probability. The warrants define the total approaching and opposing volumes to encourage a left-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of left-turn, and number of lanes.

Ship Collision Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for Sea-crossing Bridges (해상교량에 대한 선박충돌 위험도 평가 및 민감도 분석)

  • Bae, Yong Gwi;Lee, Seong Lo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1753-1763
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    • 2013
  • In the design phase of sea-crossing bridge projects, ship collision problem is mostly participated in decision of substructure section and it would be performed by risk assessment and impact simulations. Ship collision risk is assessed by probability model which is similar to method II of Guide Specification and Commentary for Vessel Collision Design of Highway Bridge(AASHTO, 2009). However, several factors used in the applicable code are limited to inland waterways or have many local characteristics. Accordingly, it should be needed judgement of engineer or referred to related criteria, research finding. In this study risk assessment for In-cheon bridge and review of existing substructure's impact risk and resistance capacity are performed using the 2010's ship passage data. And then consideration regarding to presumption and applied instance of factors needed for risk assessment and related research findings are performed on the basis of AASHTO Guide's Method. As a result of study, adequate variable region of factors needed for risk assessment is defined and sensitivity analysis for appropriate region is performed. Consequently, factors that should be applied carefully or needed for direct analysis of local data are confirmed. This research could be fundamental material to risk assessment related to design for sea-crossing bridge taken into account ship collision.

A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept (확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Taehui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

A Study on the Automatic Control for Collision Avoidance of the Ships (선박의 충돌회피를 위한 자동제어에 관한 기초적 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Keon;Kwon, Bae-Jun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2002
  • The collisions of vessel at sea show high among the whole marine accidents. Especially, the accidents of fishing vessels take the largest portion of the collisions. Therefore, a technique to reduce these accidents should be developed. The automatic control for avoiding collision suggested in this study consists of two steps. The first is recognizing collision risk with fuzzy Theory and the other is maneuvering the model ship on the basis of collision risk calculated from the first step. The information form the position and estimated time of collision point(DCPA and TCPA) is used to assess the collision risk. To verify this system, a fishing vessel was simulated according to MMG mathematical model. The simulations result shows quite good application in avoiding the collision of ship.

A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

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Porewater Pressure Predictions on Hillside Slopes for Assessing Landslide Risks(I) -Comparative Study of Groundwater Recharge- (산사태 위험도 추정을 위한 간극수압 예측에 관한 연구(I) -지하수 유입량의 비교 연구-)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Park, Gyeong-Ho;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 1992
  • Landslides on hillside slopes with shallow soil cover over a sloping bedrock are frequently caused by increases in porewater pressures following of heavy rainfall and it is one of the most important factors of assessing the risk of landslide to predict the groundwater level fluctuations in hillslopes. This paper presents the comparative study of three unsaturated flow models developed by Sloan et al., Reddi, L.N., and Thomas, H.A., Jr., respectively, which are used to predict the increase of groundwater levels in hillside slopes. The parametric study for each of models is also presented. The Kinematic Storage Model(KSM) developed by Sloan et at. is utilized to predict the saturated groundwater flow. They are applied to the two sites in Korea so as to examine the possibility of use in the groundwater flow model. The results show that two unsaturated models developed by Sloan et al. and Reddi, L. N. are largely affected by the uncertain parameters like saturated permeability and saturated water content : the abed model has the potential of use in unsaturated flow model with the optimal estimates of model parameters utilizing available optimization techniques. And it is also found that the KSM must be modified to account for the time delay effect in the saturated zone. The results of this paper are able to be utilized in developing the predictive model of groan dwater level fluctuations in a hillslope.

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