• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 확률

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Evaluation of flash drought characteristics using satellite-based soil moisture product between North and South Korea (위성영상 기반 토양수분을 활용한 남북한의 돌발가뭄 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Hee-Jin;Nam, Won-Ho;Jason A. Otkin;Yafang Zhong;Xiang Zhang;Mark D. Svoboda
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.8
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    • pp.509-518
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    • 2024
  • Flash drought is a rapid-onset drought that occurs rapidly over a short period due to abrupt changes in meteorological and environmental factors. In this study, we utilized satellite-based soil moisture product from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2(AMSR2) ascending X-band to calculate the weekly Flash Drought Intensity Index (FDII). We also analyzed the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula over a 10-year period from 2013 to 2022. The analysis of monthly spatial distribution patterns of the irrigation period across the Korean Peninsula revealed significant variations. In North Korea (NK), a substantial increase in the rate of intensification (FD_INT) was observed due to the rapid depletion of soil moisture, whereas South Korea (SK) experienced a significant increase in drought severity (DRO_SEV). Additionally, regional time series analysis revealed that both FD_INT and DRO_SEV were significantly high in the Gangwon province of both NK and SK. The estimation of probability density by region revealed a clear difference in FD_INT between NK and SK, with SK showing a higher probability of severe drought occurrence primarily due to the high values of DRO_SEV. As a result, it is inferred that the occurrence frequency and damage of flash droughts in NK are higher than those in SK, as indicated by the higher density of large FDII values in the NK region. We analyzed the correlation between DRO_SEV and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) across the Korean Peninsula and confirmed a positive correlation ranging from 0.4 to 0.6. It is concluded that analyzing overall drought conditions through the average drought severity holds high utility. These findings are expected to contribute to understanding the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula and formulating post-event response plans.

Balanced DQDB Applying the System with Cyclic Service for a Fair MAC Procotol (공정한 MAC 프로토콜을 위해 순환서비스시스템을 적용한 평형 DQDB)

  • 류희삼;강준길
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1919-1927
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    • 1993
  • A new MAC protocol has been proposed and analysed to relieve the unfairness problems exhibited by the basic version of the DQDB standard. DQDB MAC protocol has the unfairness problems in throughputs. message delay and so or. And when the slots are reused or the file transmissions takes long, the unfairness problems in the system become worse. The new access protocol proposed here, which of called the Balanced DQDB, guarantees a fair bandwidth distribution by using one bit of the dual bus network protocol and keeps up all characteristics of DQDB. the DQDB analysis model introduced by Wen Jing, et al, was considered to analyse a sequential balance distribution of solts. And the probabilities of the empty in operation mode were represented to determine the probabilities for busy bits to generate on each node of the bus using the Markov chain. Through the simulations. the performances of the proposed Balanced DQDB and that of the standard DQDB of the BWB mechanism were compared at the state that the values of the RQ or CD counter on each node varied dynamically. As the results, it is shown that the Balanced DQDB has the decrement of throughputs in upstream, but the numbers of the used empty slots at each node of the Balanced DQDB had more than that of the others because the Balanced DQDB has over 0.9 throughputs in the 70~80% nodes of total node and it has constant throughputs at each node. And there results were analogous to that of the analytical model.

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A Study on the Lunar Ground Temperature Profile for Investigation of Possible Condition of the Ice Layer Existence in Sub-surface of the Moon (달 지하 얼음 층 존재 가능조건 검토를 위한 달 지반 온도 프로파일 산정 연구)

  • Go, Gyu-Hyun;Lee, Jangguen;Shin, Hyu-Soung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.801-809
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    • 2019
  • NASA's lunar polar exploration mission in 2009 confirmed the presence of ice-layer in the permanently shadowed regions (PSR) of the moon. Since then, studies have been actively conducted to evaluate the ground characteristics for exploring the ice-layer in the polar regions of the Moon. In this study, transient heat transfer analysis for the lunar ground was conducted to predict the ground's temperature that varies with the time and location. As a result of the numerical analysis, it was confirmed that the temperature under the lunar ground converged to below the ice sublimation reference temperature (≒112 K) at above 86° latitude. This model enabled us to identify the regions where there is a high possibility of ice being buried. Besides, we found that the ice-layer in the shallow region, where the temperature deviation is significant, makes ground temperature distribution heterogeneous. Lastly, this study suggested the maximum allowable frictional heat of a drill bit that can preserve the phase of buried ice.

Characterization of Domestic Earthquake Events for the Safety Assessment of the Geological Disposal System (심지층 처분시스템의 안전성평가를 위한 국내 지진 발생 특성 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Woo;Cho, Dong-Keun;Ko, Nak-Youl;Jeong, Jongtae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2015
  • Safety assessments of geological radioactive waste disposal systems, need to consider the abnormal scenario in which a system is impacted by external events in addition to a reference scenario. In this study, the characterization and prediction of an earthquake as an external event which will impact disposal systems were conducted probabilistically and statistically for the safety assessment. The domestic earthquake data were analyzed, and the prediction methodologies of the earthquake were suggested with a computational example. From the results, the earthquake occurrence rates in Korea ranged from 0.4 /yr to 36.2 /yr depending on the data set and the completeness magnitude. From a conservative point of view, the earthquake occurrence rate in the disposal system was suggested as 5.4×10-4 /yr considering the area of the disposal system. At that time, the completeness magnitude of an earthquake was 2.3. This study will be followed by an appraisal of impacts associated with external events on the geological disposal system, and it will contribute to improvements in reliability of the safety assessment.

Hydrogeological Stability Study on the Underground Oil Storage Caverns by Numerical Modeling (수치모델링을 이용한 지하원유비축시설의 수리지질학적 안정성 연구)

  • 김경수;정지곤
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.35-51
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    • 2002
  • This study aims to establish the methodology for design of an optimum water curtain system of the unlined underground oil storage cavern satisfying the requirements of hydrodynamic performance in a volcanic terrain of the south coastal area. For the optimum water curtain system in the storage facility, the general characteristics of groundwater flow system in the site are quantitatively described, i.e. distribution of hydraulic gradients, groundwater inflow rate into the storage caverns, and hydrogeologic influence area of the cavern. In this study, numerical models such as MODFLOW, FracMan/MAFIC and CONNECTFLOW are used for calculating the hydrogeological stability parameters. The design of a horizontal water curtain system requires considering the distance between water curtain and storage cavern, spacing of the water curtain boreholes, and injection pressure. From the numerical simulations at different scales, the optimum water curtain systems satisfying the containment criteria are obtained. The inflow rates into storage caverns estimated by a continuum model ranged from about 120 m$^3$/day during the operation stage to 130~140m$^3$/day during the construction stage, whereas the inflow rates by a fracture network model are 80~175m$^3$/day. The excavation works in the site will generate the excessive decline of groundwater level in a main fracture zone adjacent to the cavern. Therefore, the vertical water curtain system is necessary for sustaining the safe groundwater level in the fracture zone.

Correction of Latent Errors in Pavement Deterioration Data using Statistical Methods (통계기법을 활용한 포장파손자료의 잠재오차 보정)

  • Han, Daeseok;Do, Myungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.587-598
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    • 2012
  • Successful implementation of infrastructure asset management system can be started with rich and reliable data. However, measurement errors in the data have always existed in the real world caused for many unknown reasons. It disturbs maintenance activities of agencies, and makes negative effects to reliability of research results on forecasting deterioration process and life cycle cost. Above all, it makes a contradiction that road agencies cannot believe their inspection data surveyed by their hands. It is particularly serious in the road pavement management field. Although road agencies are well recognized the fact, inspecting without measurement error would be a great challenge. Considering the facts, this paper aimed to suggest statistical error processing methods to correct latent error included in pavement surface inspection data. As alternatives, this paper suggested two methods based on probability distribution to consider structure of error and reliability of the data. The suggested methods were empirically tested by using pavement inspection data from Korean National Highway. As the result, this paper confirmed that conventional error processing that just removes only visible errors is not enough to cover uncertainty in pavement deterioration process. The suggested methods would be useful for improving reliability of analysis results required for road infrastructure asset management.

Drought Risk Analysis in Seoul Using Cheugugi and Climate Change Scenario Based Rainfall Data (측우기 및 미래 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용한 서울지역의 가뭄 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Ji Eun;Yu, Ji Soo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2018
  • Considering the effect of climate change, a quantitative analysis of extreme drought is needed to reduce the damage from extreme droughts. Therefore, in this study, a quantitative risk analysis of extreme drought was conducted. The threshold level method was applied to define a drought event using Cheugugi rainfall data in past, gauged rainfall data in present, and climate change scenario rainfall data in future. A bivariate drought frequency analysis was performed using the copula function to simultaneously consider two major drought characteristics such as duration and severity. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the risks for the past, present and future were calculated and the risks for future extreme drought were analyzed comparing with the past and present. As a result, the mean drought duration of the future was shorter than that of past and present, however, the mean drought severity was much larger. Therefore short term and severe droughts were expected to occur in the future. In addition, the analysis of the maximum drought risk indicated that the future maximum drought risk was 1.39~1.94 times and 1.33~1.81 times higher than the past and present. Finally, the risk of extreme drought over past and present maximum drought in the future was very high, ranging from 0.989 to 1.0, and the occurrence probability of extreme drought was high in the future.

Evaluation of Cave-in Possibility of a Shallow Depth Rock Tunnel by Rock Engineering Systems and Uumerical Analyses (암반공학시스템과 수치해석을 이용한 저심도 암반터널에서의 붕락 발생 가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Man-Kwang;Yoo, Young-Il;Song, Jae-Joon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.236-247
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    • 2009
  • Overpopulation has significantly increased the use of underground spaces in urban areas, and led to the developments of shallow-depth underground space. Due to unexpected rock fall, however, it is very necessary to understand and categorize the rock mass behaviors prior to the tunnel excavation, by which unnecessary casualties and economic loss could be prevented. In case of cave-in, special attention should be drawn since it occurs faster and greater in magnitude compared to rock fall and plastic deformation. Types of cave-in behavior are explained and categorized using seven parameters - Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS), Rock Quality Designation (RQD), joint surface condition, in-situ stress condition, ground water condition, earthquake & ground vibration, tunnel span. This study eventually introduces a new index called Cave-in Behavior Index (CBI) which explains the behavior of cave-in under given in-situ conditions expressed by the seven parameters. In order to assess the mutual interactions of the seven parameters and to evaluate the weighting factors for all the interactions, survey data of the experts' opinions and Rock Engineering Systems (RES) were used due to lack of field observations. CBI was applied to the tunnel site of Seoul Metro Line No. 9. UDEC analyses on 288 cases were done and occurrences of cave-in in every simulation were examined. Analyses on the results of 288 cases of simulations revealed that the average CBI for the cases when cave-in for different patterns of tunnel support was estimated by a logistic regression analysis.

GLCM Algorithm Image Analysis of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver and Focal Fat Sparing Zone in the Ultrasonography (초음파검사에서 비알콜성 지방간과 국소지방회피영역에 대한 GLCM Algorithm 영상분석)

  • Cho, Jin-Young;Ye, Soo-Young
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2017
  • There is a need for aggressive diagnosis and treatment in middle-aged and high-risk individuals who are more likely to progress from nonalcoholic fatty liver to hepatitis. In this study, nonalcoholic fatty liver was divided into severe, moderate, and severe, and classified by quantitative method using computer analysis of GLCM algorithm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of ultrasound images in the local fat avoidance region. Normal, mild, moderate, severe fatty liver, and focal fat sparing area, 80 cases, respectively. Among the parameters of the GLCM algorithm, the values of the Autocorrelation, Square of the deviation, Sum of averages and Sum of variances with high recognition rate of the liver ultrasound image were calculated. The average recognition rate of the GLCM algorithm was 97.5%. The result of local fat avoidance image analysis showed the most similar value to the normal parenchyma. Ultrasonography can be easily accessed by primary screening, but there may be differences in the accuracy of the test method or the correspondence of results depending on proficiency. GLCM algorithm was applied to quantitatively classify the degree of fatty liver. Local fat avoidance region was similar to normal parenchyma, so it could be predicted to be homogeneous liver parenchyma without fat deposition. We believe that GLCM computer image analysis will provide important information for differentiating not only fatty liver but also other lesions.

A Comparison of the Relianility Analysis Mitheds in Stream Water Quality Modeling (강물의 수질오염 Modeling에 사용되는 신뢰도 분석방법에 대한 비교연구)

  • 윤춘경
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.62-72
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    • 1995
  • 공학분야에 널리 사용되고 있는 신뢰도 분석 방법 중에서 Monte Carlo simulation (MC), Mean-value First-Order Second-Moment Method(MFOSM), and Advanced First-Order Second-Moment(AFOSM) method들을 강물의 오염물질 농도와 수질기준치사이의 신뢰도 분석에 적용하였다. 미 환경 보건국에서 개발 보급한 QUAL2E를 이용하여 Mew Jersey에 위치한 Passaic강의 수질예측에서 4가지 주요인자(용존산소, 생물학적 산소요구량, 암모니아 그리고 조류)들이 정해진 수질기준치를 유지 할 수 있는 확률을 세가지 방법에 의해 추정한 후에 상호 비교하였다. MC방법에 의해 2,000회 simulation시켜서 그 결과가 시스템의 추계학적 성질을 잘 반영한 것으로 판단하여 비교기준으로 삼고 MFOSM과 AFOSM에 의해 추정한 결과와 비교하였다. MFOSM의 결과보다는 AFOSM의 결과가 전체적으로 MC의 결과에 더 근접하였으며, 이유는 AFOSM의 계산방법이 MFOSM의 선형근사로 인한 오차를 줄일 수 있었기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. MC방법의 결과와 다른 방법들의 결과사이의 차이가 입력 변수들이 평균값에서 멀어질 때가 많았는데 이는 MC의 경우 입력 변수들이 일정범위를 벗어나서 비현실적인 상황이면 model이 정지하는데, 다른 방법들은 simulation에 의한 것이 아니고 수학적인 계산에 의해서 신뢰도가 추정되기 때문에 이러한 상황이 반영될 수 없기 때문이다. 강물의 수질을 취급하는 공학적인 측면에서 보면, 이중에 가장 간편한 MFOSM이 많은 simulation이 필요한 MC나 계산방법이 상대적으로 복잡한 AFOSM에 비해 오차가 크지 않아서 이들을 대시하여 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다. 유래의 PAF가 분비된다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 인자는 동결처리에서도 그 기능은 전혀 변하지 않는다고 본다. 이후에 있어서 mouse LIF의 첨가는 돼지의 수정란을 배반포 이후의 단계에까지 발달시킬 수 있었다. 있어서 더 적합한 것으로 판단되었다. 5. 개발된 모형은 논 관개의 물리적 측면과 관리목표 모두를 고려한 것으로 계산된 효율은 벼, 생육 각 단계에서의 효율 비교에 양호한 방법임을 알 수 있다.은 Sharpsburg 점질양토에 대한 S.C.S 한계허용치 10ton/ha/year 이내로 나타났다. 비처리구에서의 토양유실량은 평균 2.56ton/ha/year로 높게 나타난 반면 3개의 서로 다른 추리구인 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass구에서는 각각 0.152, 0.192 및 0.290ton/ha/year로 낮은 결과를 가져왔다. 6. 평균 침전량에 대한 L.S.D. 검정 걸과 전시험구중 비처리구가 고도의 유의차를 나타낸 반면 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass 목초구 간에는 아무런 유의차가 인정되지 않았다. 7. 농지보전 처리구인 배수구와 초생수로구는 비처리구에 비해 낮은 침두 유출량과 낮은 토양유실량을 나타내었다.구보다 14% 절감되는 것으로 나타났다.작용하는 것으로 사료된다.된다.정량 분석한 결과이다. 시편의 조성은 33.6 at% U, 66.4 at% O의 결과를 얻었다. 산화물 핵연료의 표면 관찰 및 정량 분석 시험시 시편 표면을 전도성 물질로 증착시키지 않고, Silver Paint 에 시편을 접착하는 방법으로도 만족한 시험 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.째, 회복기 중에 일어나는 입자들의 유입은 자기폭풍의 지속시간을 연장시키는 경향을 보이며 큰 자기폭풍일수록 현저했다. 주상에서 관측된 이러한 특성은 서브스톰 확장기 활동이 자기폭풍의 발달과 밀접한 관계가

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