• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측위험

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Research for Space Activities of Korea Air Force - Political and Legal Perspective (우리나라 공군의 우주력 건설을 위한 정책적.법적고찰)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.18
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    • pp.135-183
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    • 2003
  • Aerospace force is a determining factor in a modem war. The combat field is expanding to space. Thus, the legitimacy of establishing aerospace force is no longer an debating issue, but "how should we establish aerospace force" has become an issue to the military. The standard limiting on the military use of space should be non-aggressive use as asserted by the U.S., rather than non-military use as asserted by the former Soviet Union. The former Soviet Union's argument is not even strongly supported by the current Russia government, and realistically is hard to be applied. Thus, the multi-purpose satellite used for military surveillance or a commercial satellite employed for military communication are allowed under the U.S. principle of peaceful use of space. In this regard, Air Force may be free to develop a military surveillance satellite and a communication satellite with civilian research institute. Although MTCR, entered into with the U.S., restricts the development of space-launching vehicle for the export purpose, the development of space-launching vehicle by the Korea Air Force or Korea Aerospace Research Institute is beyond the scope of application of MTCR, and Air Force may just operate a satellite in the orbit for the military purpose. The primary task for multi-purpose satellite is a remote sensing; SAR sensor with high resolution is mainly employed for military use. Therefore, a system that enables Air Force, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, and Agency for Defense Development to conduct joint-research and development should be instituted. U.S. Air Force has dismantled its own space-launching vehicle step by step, and, instead, has increased using private space launching vehicle. In addition, Military communication has been operated separately from civil communication services or broadcasting services due to the special circumstances unique to the military setting. However, joint-operation of communication facility by the military and civil users is preferred because this reduces financial burden resulting from separate operation of military satellite. During the Gulf War, U.S. armed forces employed commercial satellites for its military communication. Korea's participation in space technology research is a little bit behind in time, considering its economic scale. In terms of budget, Korea is to spend 5 trillion won for 15 years for the space activities. However, Japan has 2 trillion won annul budget for the same activities. Because the development of space industry during initial fostering period does not apply to profit-making business, government supports are inevitable. All space development programs of other foreign countries are entirely supported by each government, and, only recently, private industry started participating in limited area such as a communication satellite and broadcasting satellite, Particularly, Korea's space industry is in an infant stage, which largely demands government supports. Government support should be in the form of investment or financial contribution, rather than in the form of loan or borrowing. Compared to other advanced countries in space industry, Korea needs more budget and professional research staff. Naturally, for the efficient and systemic space development and for the prevention of overlapping and distraction of power, it is necessary to enact space-related statutes, which would provide dear vision for the Korea space development. Furthermore, the fact that a variety of departments are running their own space development program requires a centralized and single space-industry development system. Prior to discussing how to coordinate or integrate space programs between Agency for Defense Development and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, it is a prerequisite to establish, namely, "Space Operations Center"in the Air Force, which would determine policy and strategy in operating space forces. For the establishment of "Space Operations Center," policy determinations by the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chief of Staff are required. Especially, space surveillance system through using a military surveillance satellite and communication satellite, which would lay foundation for independent defense, shall be established with reference to Japan's space force plan. In order to resolve issues related to MTCR, Air Force would use space-launching vehicle of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute. Moreover, defense budge should be appropriated for using multi-purpose satellite and communication satellite. The Ministry of National Defense needs to appropriate 2.5 trillion won budget for space operations, which amounts to Japan's surveillance satellite operating budges.

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Torque and mechanical failure of orthodontic micro-implant influenced by implant design parameters (교정용 마이크로 임플란트의 디자인이 토오크와 파절강도에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Won-Jae;Kyung, Hee-Moon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.37 no.3 s.122
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    • pp.171-181
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    • 2007
  • Objective: The present study was aimed at an analytical formulation of the micro-implant related torque as a function of implant size, i.e. the diameter and length, screw size, and the bony resistance at the implant to bone interface. Methods: The resistance at the implant to cancellous bone interface $(S_{can})$ was assumed to be in the range of 1.0-2.5 MPa. Micro-implant model of Absoanchor (Dentos Inc. Daegu, Korea) was used in the course of the analysis. Results: The results showed that the torque was a strong function of diameter, length, and the screw height. As the diameter increased and as the screw size decreased, the torque index decreased. However the strength index was a different function of the implant and bone factors. The whole Absoanchor implant models were within the safe region when the resistance at the implant/cancellous bone $(=S_{can})$ was 1.0 or less. Conclusion: For bone with $S_{can}$ of 1.5 MPa, the cervical diameter should be greater than 1.5 mm if micro-implant models of 12 mm long are to be placed. For $S_{can}$ of 2.0 MPa, micro-implant models of larger cervical diameter than 1.5 mm were found to be safe only if the endosseous length was less than 8 mm.

An Exploratory study on the Direction of Home Economics Education associated with the future social change: focusing on the new recognition of the characteristic as the Subjects for Life and Happiness (미래 사회의 변화와 가정과교육의 방향 탐색 - '삶 중심 교과'와 '행복 교과'로서의 성격 재인식을 중심으로 -)

  • Wang, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.17-32
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    • 2016
  • This exploratory study which applied environmental scanning method to analyse a change in a future society tried to diagnose a reaction ability of our education system for the change in the future society. In addition, the study tried to explore an adequate direction for Home Economics Subject to be an mandatory subject continuously toward the change in the future society. Main changes in the future society can be expected as 1) demographic change due to low birth rate and aging society, 2) an increasing threat of a human living environment due to unexpectable natural disasters and accidents, 3) a radical progress into a ubiquitous computing environment led by AI, 4) an advent of a borderless economic society and a change for jobs, 5) a change in North Korea, and so on. Our education system which mostly concentrates on education to develop constructive intelligence by halving the society and schooling as yet, however, is diagnosed as it has a paradox that can not understand an emotional competency as a target for studying. Home Economics Subject is worth as the subject that can exactly complement a blind spot of our education system which can not respond to the future society adequately. This is because Home Economics Subject has had a characteristic as a 'Subject of Life' traditionally that has dealt with an overall 'life' of human beings, and the characteristic is favorable to develop human practical intelligence. Thus, because the 'life' is the main point of Home Economics Subject, it has the characteristic as a 'Subject of Happiness' which is the most effective method to develop a tendency to appreciate, a sense of empathy, and lots of pro-social behaviors that are important capacities to seek for happiness. As Alderfer's ERG Theory is to understand human beings' behavior based on the satisfactory of human beings' hierarchical desires, it is suggested as an adequate frame for the theory to restructure the characteristic of Home Economics Subject which develops the 'capacity to seek for happiness' by focusing the 'life', into core concept and core capacity of curriculum. A follow-up study should make a connection between ERG Theory and core concept and core capacity of curriculum to explore how the theory can be reflected on Home Economics curriculum.

A Survey on the Perception of Food Sanitation Officers Toward the Genetically Modified Foods (유전자재조합식품에 대한 관련 식품위생공무원의 인지도 조사)

  • Oh Kyeung Nam;Lee Soon Ho;Lee Woo Young;Park Hye Kyung;Park Sun Hee
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.22-35
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    • 2005
  • A survey was conducted to investigate the perception of food sanitation officers toward the Genetically Modified Foods. They were mainly from Regional Agencies of KFDA, City/Province office, and National quarantine station. Some of them were professors of university and researchers of research institute. Most of respondents had experiences of hearing or reading GM foods (over $95\%$) and over $90\%$ of respondents much needed the label of GM foods. Although some of officers of city/province office and national quarantine station showed less knowledge than other respondent groups, most of respondents had basic knowledge about biology. The frequency of respondents worked over 20 years and worked in the general administration was higher than that of other groups in the question of unsafe of GM foods. The answer frequency of careless treatment of foods was highest in the question of risk factor, and the frequency of GM foods was lowest ($4.4\%$). It was concluded that food sanitation officers had positive opinion about GM foods, but there were some differences in the knowledge among agencies. Therefore, it is necessary more educations and informations are needed for food sanitation officers.

Low price type inspection and monitoring system of lithium ion batteries for hybrid vessels (하이브리드 선박용 리튬 배터리의 저가형 감시시스템 구현)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-joo;Kim, Min-kwon;Lee, Sung-geun
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2016
  • Batteries are used for main power engine in the fields such as mobiles, electric vehicles and unmanned submarines, for starter and lamp driver in general automotive, for emergency electric source in ship. These days, lead-acid and the lithium ion batteries are increasingly used in the fields of the secondary battery, and the lead-acid battery has a low price and safety comparatively, The lithium ion battery has a high energy density, excellent output characteristics and long life, whereas it has the risk of explosion by reacting with moisture in the air. But Recently, due to the development of waterproof, fireproof, dustproof technology, lithium batteries are widely used, particularly, because their usages are getting wider enough to be used as a power source for hybrid ship and electric propulsion ship, it is necessary to manage more strictly. Hybrid ship has power supply units connected to the packets to produce more than 500kWh large power source, and therefore, A number of the communication modules and wires need to implement the wire inspection and monitor system(WIIMS) that allows monitoring server to transmit detecting voltage, current and temperature data, which is required for the management of the batteries. This paper implements a low price type wireless inspection and monitoring system(WILIMS) of the lithium ion battery for hybrid vessels using BLE wireless communication modules and power line modem( PLM), which have the advantages of low price, no electric lines compared to serial communication inspection systems(SCIS). There are state of charge(SOC), state of health(SOH) in inspection parts of batteries, and proposed system will be able to prevent safety accidents because it allows us to predict life time and make a preventive maintenance by checking them at regular intervals.

Clinical Significance of Focal Breast Lesions Incidentally Identified by $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT ($^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT에서 우연히 발견된 국소 유방 병변의 임상적 의의)

  • Cho, Young-Seok;Choi, Joon-Young;Lee, Su-Jin;Hyun, Seung-Hyup;Lee, Ji-Young;Choi, Yong;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Lee, Kyung-Han;Kim, Byung-Tae
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.456-463
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: We evaluated the incidence and malignant risk of focal breast lesions incidentally detected by $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT. Various PET/CT findings of the breast lesions were also analyzed to improve the differentiation between benign from malignant focal breast lesions. Materials & Methods: The subjects were 3,768 consecutive $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT exams performed in adult females without a history of breast cancer. A focal breast lesion was defined as a focal $^{18}F-FDG$ uptake or a focal nodular lesion on CT image irrespective of $^{18}F-FDG$ uptake in the breasts. The maximum SUV and CT pattern of focal breast lesions were evaluated, and were compared with final diagnosis. Results: The incidence of focal breast lesions on PET/CT in adult female subjects was 1.4% (58 lesions in 53 subjects). In finally confirmed 53 lesions of 48 subjects, 11 lesions of 8 subjects (20.8%) were proven to be malignant. When the PET/CT patterns suggesting benignancy (maximum attenuation value>75 HU or <30HU; standard deviation of mean attenuation > 20) were added as diagnostic criteria of PET/CT to differentiate benign from malignant breast lesions along with maximum SUV, the area under ROC curve of PET/CT was significantly increased compared with maximum SUV alone ($0.680{\pm}0.093$ vs. $0.786{\pm}0.076$, p<0.05). Conclusion: The malignant risk of focal breast lesions incidentally found on $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT is not low, deserving further diagnostic confirmation. Image interpretation considering both $^{18}F-FDG$ uptake and PET/CT pattern may be helpful to improve the differentiation from malignant and benign focal breast lesion.

Relationship between Alcohol Withdrawal Symptoms and Dopaminergic Gene Polymorphisms(DRD2, DAT, COMT) in Alcohol Dependence Patients (알코올 의존 환자의 금단 증상에 영향을 미치는 도파민계(DRD2, DAT, COMT) 유전자 다형성)

  • Choi, Tai Young;Kim, Ho-Nam;Han, Doug-Hyun;Min, Kyung-Jun;Lee, Young-Sik;Na, Chul
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.178-190
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    • 2006
  • Objectives : We investigated the relationship of the alcohol withdrawal symptoms with genetic polymorphism among alcohol dependence patients. Method : The measuring instruments used in this study were the Clinical Institute Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol(CIWA-Ar). We analyzed DRD2 TaqI A polymorphism, dopamine transporter(DAT 1) polymorphism, and catechol-O-methyltransferase(COMT) polymorphism in 108 male alcoholics and 76 healthy controls. Results : The major findings was as follows. No significant differences for genotype distribution or allele frequency were revealed comparing controls and alcoholic patients. DRD2 Taq I : The subscale score of auditory hallucination among CIWA-Ar scale in homozygote was significantly higher than in heterozygote(OR=1.34). The total score of CIWA-Ar scale in heterozygote was significantly higher than in homozygote. DAT1 : In the subject without DAT-9 gene allele, it was significantly higher of the subscale score of sweating, anxiety among CIWA-Ar scale than in the subject with DAT-9 gene allele. And The total score of CIWA-Ar scale in the subject without DAT-9 gene allele was significantly higher than in the subject with DAT-9 gene allele. COMT : The total score of CIWA-Ar scale in heterozygote was significantly higher than in homozygote. Conclusion : Our results suggest the relationship between specific genetic factors and the withdrawal symptoms of alcohol dependent patients. As the candidate gene of the severity of alcohol withdrawal syndrome, DRD2 Taq1 gene was recommended.

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Brain F-18 FDG PET for localization of epileptogenic zones in frontal lobe epilepsy: visual assessment and statistical parametric mapping analysis (전두엽 간질에서 F-18-FDG PET의 간질병소 국소화 성능: 육안 판독과 SPM에 의한 분석)

  • Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Sang-Kun;Chung, Chun-Kee;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2001
  • Purpose: We evaluated the sensitivity of the F-18 FDG PET by visual assessment and statistical parametric mapping (SPM) analysis for the localization of the epileptogenic zones in frontal lobe epilepsy. Materials and Methods: Twenty-four patients with frontal lobe epilepsy were examined. All patients exhibited improvements after surgical resection (Engel class I or II). Upon pathological examination, 18 patients revealed cortical dysplasia, 4 patients revealed tumor, and 2 patients revealed cortical scar. The hypometabolic lesions were found in F-18 FDG PET by visual assessment and SPM analysis. On SPM analysis, cutoff threshold was changed. Results: MRI showed structural lesions in 12 patients and normal results in the remaining 12. F-18 FDG PET correctly localized epileptogenic zones in 13 patients (54%) by visual assessment. Sensitivity of F-18 FDG PET in MR-negative patients (50%) was similar to that in MR-positive patients (67%). On SPM analysis, sensitivity decreased according to the decrease of p value. Using uncorrected p value of 0.05 as threshold, sensitivity of SPM analysis was 53%, which was not statistically different from that of visual assessment. Conclusion: F-18 FDG PET was sensitive in finding epileptogenic zones by revealing hypometabolic areas even in MR-negative patients with frontal lobe epilepsy as well as in MR-positive patients. SPM analysis showed comparable sensitivity to visual assessment and could be used as an aid in the diagnosis of epileptogenic zones in frontal lobe epilepsy.

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The Clinical Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction in the Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for the Detection of Mycobacteria (객담 도말 음성인 환자에서 기관지폐포 세척액 결핵균 중합 효소 연쇄반응 검사의 유용성)

  • Mo, Eun-Kyung;Kyung, Tae-Young;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck;Lee, Kyung-Wha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.519-528
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    • 1998
  • Background: Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis is not easy when the sputum smear for Mycobacterium tuberculosis(M. Tb) is negative. We evaluated the clinical utility of polymerase chain reaction(PCR) for detecting M. Tb in bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL) samples. Methods: We recruited 84 patients whose sputum smear for M. Tb were negative or not available due to no production of sputum. We performed bronchoalveolar lavage for acid-fast stain, culture of mycobacteria, and PCR assay of BAL fluid. We analyzed the results of microbiologic examination. Results: The sensitivity of BAL fluid smear, culture, and PCR were 20%, 38%, and 40%, respectively. The specificity of BAL fluid PCR was 95%. The positive predictive value of PCR was 89%. The smear of BAL fluid was positive in 17%. The PCR of BAL fluid was the only diagnostic test in 17%. Therefore, the BAL fluid analysis including smear and PCR was diagnostic in 34 % within 24 hours. The BAL fluid analysis including smear, PCR, and culture was diagnostic in 55% within 2 month. Conclusion: The BAL fluid PCR was valuable method in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in patients whose sputa were not available or reveal negative smear.

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