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Estimating Automobile Insurance Premiums Based on Time Series Regression (시계열 회귀모형에 근거한 자동차 보험료 추정)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Park, Wonseo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.237-252
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    • 2013
  • An estimation model for premiums and components is essential to determine reasonable insurance premiums. In this study, we introduce diverse models for the estimation of property damage premiums(premium, depth and frequency) that include a regression model using a dummy variable, additive independent variable model, autoregressive error model, seasonal ARIMA model and intervention model. In addition, the actual property damage premium data was used to estimate the premium, depth and frequency for each model. The estimation results of the models are comparatively examined by comparing the RMSE(Root Mean Squared Errors) of estimates and actual data. Based on real data analysis, we found that the autoregressive error model showed the best performance.

Numerical simulation of a double dam break driven swash using an overset dynamic mesh capability of OpenFOAM (OpenFOAM overset 동격자 기법을 활용한 이중 댐 붕괴 파랑수치모형실험)

  • Ju Hee Ok;Yeulwoo Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.222-222
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    • 2023
  • 오픈 소스 유체역학 소프트웨어인 OpenFOAM은 다양한 유체 흐름에 적용 가능한 프로그램들로 구성되어 있다. 이 중 interFoam은 밀도가 다른 두 유체(i.e., 물, 공기) 간의 경계를 추적하는 기법을 기반으로 한 프로그램으로, 파랑의 거동 모의에 주로 쓰이고 있다. 파생형 프로그램으로는 동격자(dynamic mesh) 및 중첩 격자 기법(overset grid method)을 interFoam에 추가한 overInterDyMFoam이 있다. 두 기법을 사용하면 각각 여러 영역에서 유체흐름과 다중 물체 간의 상호작용을 효율적으로 모의할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 overInterDyMFoam을 사용하여 두 개 수문의 개방 움직임을 구현하고 생성된 파랑이 포말대(swash zone)에 접근하였을 때의 흐름 특성을 조사하였다. 수치모형실험 결과 수문 개방 속도가 댐 붕괴 파랑 흐름 전파속도에 영향을 미치는 사실을 발견하였다. 또한, 처오름과 처내림의 상호작용에 의한 난류 운동 특성을 조사하기 위해 수문 개방시간 간격을 0초~3초로 설정하였다. 수치모형실험 결과는 수리모형실험의 수면 변동 시계열과 속도 시계열 결과와 비교하여 모형의 정확성이 검증되었다.

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Intrusion Detection System Utilizing Stack Ensemble and Adjacent Netflow (스텍앙상블과 인접 넷플로우를 활용한 침입 탐지 시스템)

  • Ji-Hyun Sung;Kwon-Yong Lee;Sang-Won Lee;Min-Jae Seok;Se-Rin Kim;Harksu Cho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.1033-1042
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes a network intrusion detection system that identifies abnormal flows within the network. The majority of datasets commonly used in research lack time-series information, making it challenging to improve detection rates for attacks with fewer instances due to a scarcity of sample data. However, there is insufficient research regarding detection approaches. In this study, we build upon previous research by using the Artificial neural network(ANN) model and a stack ensemble technique in our approach. To address the aforementioned issues, we incorporate temporal information by leveraging adjacent flows and enhance the learning of samples from sparse attacks, thereby improving both the overall detection rate and the detection rate for sparse attacks.

The evaluation of dose of TSEI with TLD and diode dector of the uterine cervix cancer (열형광선량계와 반도체검출기를 이용한 전신피부전자선조사의 선량평가)

  • Je Young Wan;Na Keyung Su;Yoon IL Kyu;Park Heung Deuk
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.57-71
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To evaluate radiation dose and accuracy with TLD and diode detector when treat total skin with electron beam. Materials and Methods : Using Stanford Technique, we treated patient with Mycosis Fungoides. 6 MeV electron beam of LINAC was used and the SSD was 300 cm. Also, acrylic speller(0.8 cm) was used. The patient position was 6 types and the gantry angle was 64, 90 and $116^{\circ}$. The patient's skin dose and the output were detected 5 to 6 times with TLD and diode. Result : The deviations of dose detected with TLD from tumor dose were CA $+\;6\%$, thigh $+\;8\%$, umbilicus $+\;4\%$, calf $-\;8\%$, vertex $-\;74.4\%$, deep axillae $-\;10.2\%$, anus and testis $-\;87\%$, sole $-\;86\%$ and nails shielded with 4mm lead $+4\%$. The deviations of dose detected with diode were $-4.5\%{\sim}+5\%$ at the patient center and $-1.1\%{\sim}+1\%$ at the speller. Conclusion : The deviation of total skin dose was $+\;8\%{\sim}-\;8\%$ and that deviation was within the acceptable range(${\pm}\;10\%$). The boost dose was irradiated for the low dose areas(vertex, anus, sole). The electron beam output detected at the sootier was stable. It is thought that the deviation of dose at patient center detected with diode was induced by detection point and patient position.

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The Reduction or computation in MLLR Framework using PCA or ICA for Speaker Adaptation (화자적응에서 PCA 또는 ICA를 이용한 MLLR알고리즘 연산량 감소)

  • 김지운;정재호
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.452-456
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    • 2003
  • We discuss how to reduce the number of inverse matrix and its dimensions requested in MLLR framework for speaker adaptation. To find a smaller set of variables with less redundancy, we adapt PCA (principal component analysis) and ICA (independent component analysis) that would give as good a representation as possible. The amount of additional computation when PCA or ICA is applied is as small as it can be disregarded. 10 components for ICA and 12 components for PCA represent similar performance with 36 components for ordinary MLLR framework. If dimension of SI model parameter is n, the amount of computation of inverse matrix in MLLR is proportioned to O(n⁴). So, compared with ordinary MLLR, the amount of total computation requested in speaker adaptation is reduced by about 1/81 in MLLR with PCA and 1/167 in MLLR with ICA.

Estimation of Fetal Dose during Radiation Therapy of Pregnant Patient (임산부의 방사선치료 시 태아선량 평가)

  • Jung, Chi-Hoon;Kim, Chan-Yong;Kim, Bo-Gyum;Seo, Suk-Jin;Yoo, Sook-Hyun;Park, Heung-Deuk
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: To evaluate the effectiveness of a simple and practical shielding device to reduce the fetal dose for a pregnant patient undergoing radiation therapy of brain metastasis. Materials and Methods: The dose to the fetus was evaluated by simulating the treatments using the anthropomorphic phantom. The prescription dose at mid-brain is $300cGy{\times}10$ fractions with 6 MV photon with $18{\times}22cm^2$ field size. The additional shielding devices to reduce the fetal dose are a shielding wall, cerrobend plates and lead (Pb) sheets over acrylic bridge. Various points of measurement with off-field distance were detected by using ion-chamber (30, 40, 50, and 60 cm) with and without the shielding devices and TLD (30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 cm) only with the shielding devices. Results: The doses to the fetus without shielding were 3.20, 3.21, 1.44, 0.90 cGy at the distances of 30, 40, 50, and 60 cm from the treatment field edge. With shielding, the doses were reduced to 0.88, 0.60, 0.35, 0.25 cGy, and the ratio of the shielding effect varied from 70% to 80%. TLD results were 1.8, 1.2, 0.8, 1.2, and 0.8 cGy (70 cm). The total dose to the fetus was expected to be under 1 cGy during the entire treatment. Conclusion: The essential point during radiation therapy of pregnant patient would be minimizing the fetal dose. 10 cGy to 20 cGy is the threshold dose for fetal radiation effects. Our newly developed device reduced the fetal dose far below the safe level. Therefore, our additional shielding devices are useful and effective to reduce the fetal dose.

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A study of geothermal heat dump for solar collectors overheat protection (태양열 집열관 과열방지를 위한 지중열교환기 연구)

  • Hwang, Hyun-Chang;Chi, Ri-Guang;Lee, Kye-Bock;Rhi, Seok-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.616-622
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    • 2016
  • The heating load using solar hot water is lower in summer than in the other seasons. This decreased heating load leads to the overheating solar collectors and related components. To prevent overheating of the solar collectors, air cooling and shading shields were used. On the other hand, it requires additional mechanical components, and reduces the system reliability. The geothermal heat dump system to release the high temperature heat (over $150^{\circ}C$) transferred from the heat pipe solar collectors was investigated in the present study. Research on the heat dump to cool the solar collector is rare. Therefore, the present study was carried out to collect possible data of a geothermal heat dump to cool the solar collector. A helical type geothermal heat exchanger was buried at a 1.2m depth. Experimentally and numerically, the geothermal heat dump was investigated in terms of the effects of parameters, such as the quantity of solar radiation, aperture area of the collector and the mass flow rate. A pipe length of 50m on the geothermal heat exchanger was suitable with a 0.33 kg/s flow rate. The water reservoir was a possible co-operation solution linked to the geothermal heat exchanger.

Developing a Model to Predict Road Surface Temperature using a Heat-Balance Method, Taking into Traffic Volume (교통량을 고려한 열수지법에 의한 노면온도 예측모형의 구축)

  • Son, Young-Tae;Jeon, Jin-Suk;Whang, Jun-Mun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2015
  • In this study, to improve effectiveness of road management services and the safety of the road in winter, road surface temperature prediction model was developed. We have utilized the existing input data of meteorological data and additional traffic data. This Road surface temperature prediction model was utilizing a Heat-Balance Method additionally considering amount of traffic that produce heat radiation by vehicle-tire friction. This improved model was compared to the based model to check into influence of traffic affecting the road surface temperature. There were verified by comparing the real observed road surface temperature of the third Gyeong-In highway and road surface temperature from the two models. As a result, the error of real observed and the predicted value (RMSE) was found to average $1.97^{\circ}C$. Observed road surface temperature was dramatically affected by the sunlight from 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. and degree of influence decreases after that. The predictive value of the model is lower than the observed value in the afternoon, and higher at night. These results appear due to the shielding of solar radiation caused by the vehicle in the afternoon and at night, the vehicle appeared to cause thermal heat supply.

A study of analytical method for volatile fatty acids (VFA) by cryogenic trapping-thermal desorption (CT-TD) technique (저온농축열탈착 시스템을 연계한 유기지방산의 분석법 평가 및 검토)

  • Ahn, Ji-Won;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Im, Moon-Soon;Ju, Do-Weon
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.200-211
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    • 2011
  • In this study, 13 compounds including four volatile fatty acids (VFA) and nine volatile organic compounds (VOC) were analyzed by cryogenic trapping-thermal desorption technique. In order to evaluate the analytical method for VFA, calibration experiments were performed using five different sorbent materials. When the calibration results are compared between different sorbents, sampling tube filled with Carbopack X showed the highest response factor (RF) for both VFA and VOC. To validate this new analytical method for VFA using cryogenic trapping-thermal desorption technique, this method was compared with alkali absorption method recommended by the odor prevention law of the Korea Ministry of Environment (KMOE). For this purpose, unknown samples were analyzed by two different methods, i.e., cryogenic trapping-thermal desorption (TD) and alkali absorption with solid phase microextraction (SPME). When the results of two different methods were compared, ratios of concentrations determined by the two analytical methods (TD/SPME) was found as 0.46 (valeric acid) ~ 0.71 (isovaleric acid). Therefore, additional study is required to properly establish and find stable analytical conditions for VFA analysis. Furthermore, comparison between two different methods should be made with more reliable calibration approaches.

Optimization Strategies for Amine Regeneration Process with Heat-Stable Salt Removal Unit (열 안정성 염 제거장치를 고려한 아민 재생 공정 최적화 전략)

  • Lee, Jesung;Lim, Jonghun;Cho, Hyungtae;Kim, Junghwan
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.575-580
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we simulated an amine regeneration process with heat-stable salts removal unit. We derived the optimal operating conditions considering the flow rate of waste, the removal rate of heat-stable salts, and the loss rate of MDEA (methyl diethanolamine). In the amine regeneration process that absorbs and removes acid gas, heat-stable salt impairs the absorption efficiency of process equipment and amine solution. An ion exchange resin method is to remove heat-stable salts through neutralization by using a strong base solution such as NaOH. The acid gas removal process was established using the Radfrac model, and the equilibrium constant of the reaction was calculated using Gibbs free energy. The removed amine solution is separated and flows to the heat-stable salts remover which is modeled by using the Rstoic model with neutralization reaction. Actual operation data and simulation results were compared and verified, and also a case study was conducted by adjusting the inflow mass of removal unit followed by suggesting optimal conditions.