• Title/Summary/Keyword: 에너지 가격

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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

Effects of Level of CP and TDN in the Concentrate Supplement on Growth Performances and Carcass Characteristics in Hanwoo Steers during Final Fattening Period (한우거세우 비육후기 배합사료의 적정 조단백질 및 에너지함량 규명에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Joon;Seong, Nak-Il;Hwang, Il-Ki;Lee, Sun-Bok;Yu, Myung-Sang;Nam, In-Sik;Lee, Myong-Il
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2010
  • Seventy two Hanwoo steers in final fattening period ($585.87{\pm}41.02kg$) were randomly assigned to 3 groups, LPLT (relatively low protein and low energy; CP 12%, TDN 73%), LPHT (relatively low protein and high energy; CP 12%, TDN 75%) and HPHT (relatively high protein and high energy; CP 14%, TDN 75%) in concentrate feed for 163 days in order to investigate the effects on growth performance, carcass characteristics, and longissimus dorsi muscle's chemical compositions. Rice straw was also fed as a roughage. Because ADGs were higher in LPLT and HPHT than LPHT, feed efficiencies were improved in LPLT and HPHT group (P<0.05). Feeding concentrates with different CP and TDN levels had affected to improve back fat thickness and rib eye area in HPHT group but had no effect on carcass weight and meat yield index. Carcass weight for LPLT, LPHT and HPHT were $420.75{\pm}30.56$, $417.05{\pm}32.03$ and $418.32{\pm}32.03kg$, respectively. Meat quality grade was improved in HPHT (P<0.001), because the marbling score was highest in HPHT group. Auction prices (carcass/kg) of LPLT, LPHT and HPHT group were 17,904 won, 18,094 won and 18,899 won, respectively. The percentage of animals over grade 1 appeared in LPLT, LPHT and HPHT were 79.2, 72.7 and 90.8%, respectively. The results of chemical analysis of longissimus dorsi muscle showed no difference between groups but crude fat composition tended to be higher in HPHT group (P=0.088) than the other groups. Stearic acid contents in the muscle was significantly increased in HPHT group than LPLT group (P<0.05). Myristoleic acid and oleic acid composition in HPHT group was higher than LPLT and LPHT group. These results supported the hypothesis that supplementation of higher levels of crude protein and energy in concentrates to Hanwoo steers' during final fattening period improved the growth performance and the carcass quality grade.

Synthesis and Electrochemical Performance of Ni-rich NCM Cathode Materials for Lithium-Ion Batteries (리튬이온전지 양극활물질 Ni-rich NCM의 합성과 전기화학적 특성)

  • Kim, Soo Yeon;Choi, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Eun Joo;Kim, Jeom-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Electrochemical Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2017
  • Layered Ni-rich NCM cathode materials $Li[Ni_xCo_{(1-x)/2}Mn_{(1-x)/2}]O_2$ ($x{\geq}0.6$) have advantages of high energy density and cost competitive over $LiCoO_2$. The discharge capacity of NCM increases proportionally to the Ni contents. However, there is a problem that it is difficult to realize the stable electrochemical performance due to cation mixing. In this study, synthesis conditions for the layered Ni-rich NCMs are investigated to achieve deliver the ones having good electrochemical performances. Synthesis parameters are atmosphere, lithium source, synthesis time, synthesis temperature and Li/M (M=transition metal) ratio. The degree of cation mixing gets worse as the Ni content is increased from $Li[Ni_{0.6}Co_{0.2}Mn_{0.2}]O_2$ (NCM6) to $Li[Ni_{0.8}Co_{0.1}Mn_{0.1}]O_2$ (NCM8). It is confirmed that higher level of cation mixing affects negatively on the electrochemical performance of NCMs. Optimum synthesis conditions are explored for NCMx (x=6, 7, 8) in order to reduce the cation mixing. Under optimized conditions for three representative NCMx, a high initial discharge capacity and a good cycle life are obtained for $180mAh{\cdot}g^{-1}$, 96.2% (50 cycle) in NCM6, $187mAh{\cdot}g^{-1}$, 94.7% (50 cycle) in NCM7, and $201mAh{\cdot}g^{-1}$, 92.7% (50 cycle) in NCM8, respectively.

Cooling Performance of Horizontal Type Geothermal Heat Pump System for Protected Horticulture (시설원예를 위한 수평형 지열 히트펌프의 냉방성능 해석)

  • Ryou, Young-Sun;Kang, Youn-Ku;Kang, Geum-Chun;Kim, Young-Joong;Paek, Yee
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 2008
  • It has become a big matter of concerns that the skill and measures against reduction of energy and cost for heating a protected horticultural greenhouse were prepared. But in these days necessity of cooling a protected horticultural greenhouse is on the rise from partial high value added farm products. In this study, therefore, a horizontal type geothermal heat pump system with 10 RT scale to heat and cool a protected horticultural greenhouse and be considered to be cheaper than a vertical type geothermal heat pump system was installed in greenhouse with area of $240\;m^2$. And cooling performances of this system were analysed. As condenser outlet temperature of heat transfer medium fluid rose from $40^{\circ}C$ to $58^{\circ}C$, power consumption of the heat pump was an upturn from 11.5 kW to 15 kW and high pressure rose from 1,617 kPa to 2,450 kPa. Cooling COP had the trend that the higher the ground temperature at 1.75 m went, the lower the COP went. The COP was 2.7 at ground temperature at 1.75 m depth of $25.5^{\circ}C$ and 2.0 at the temperature of $33.5^{\circ}C$ and the heat extraction rate from the greenhouse were 28.8 kW, 26.5 kW respectively at the same ground temperature range. 8 hours after the heat pump was operated, the temperature of ground at 60 cm and 150 cm depth buried a geothermal heat exchanger rose $14.3^{\circ}C$, $15.3^{\circ}C$ respectively, but the temperature of ground at the same depth not buried rose $2.4^{\circ}C$, $4.3^{\circ}C$ respectively. The temperature of heat transfer medium fluid fell $7.5^{\circ}C$ after the fluid passed through geothermal heat exchanger and the fluid rejected average 46 kW to the 1.5 m depth ground. It analyzed the geothermal heat exchanger rejected average 36.8 W/m of the geothermal heat exchanger. Fan coil units in the greenhouse extracted average 28.2 kW from the greenhouse air and the temperature of heat transfer medium fluid rose $4.2^{\circ}C$after the fluid passing through fan coil units. It was analyzed the accumulation energy of thermal storage thank was 321 MJ in 3 hours and the rejection energy of the tank was 313 MJ in 4 hours.

A Case Study on the Exogenous Factors affecting Extra-large Egg Production in a Layer Farm in Korea (산란계 사육농장 특란 생산에 미치는 외부 요인 분석을 위한 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chang;Jang, Woo-Whan
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the production of extra-large egg and assess the impacts of exogenous factors in feeding the layer chicken. The main results of this study are as follows; First, feeding rations on the basics of statistics, internal maximum and minimum temperature and, the age at first egg affect the production of extra-large egg. Second, implicating the standardized coefficients from the conclusion of regression model estimating suggest that the amount of feed has the greatest impact on production followed by the age at first egg. Third, by using the elasticity of output and the volatility in the production, the result suggest that among the independent variable factors in the external volatility, the biggest one goes to feed ration, and the age at first egg follows. In order to control the production volatility in the extra-large egg production of the farms, it is necessary to manage an efficient feeding based on feed ration, age at first egg and, the maximum and minimum temperature inside the farm. Taken together, the results demonstrates that it should be concentrated by controlling the exogenous factors affecting extra large egg production and the management system construct, to increase extra-large egg production and the income of farmers at the same time.

Red Pepper (Capsicum annum) Drying Using Flat-Plate Solar Collectors (평판집열기(平板集熱機)를 이용(利用)한 고추 건조(乾燥)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Dong-Man;Kim, Man-Soo;Chang, Kyu-Seob
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.56-64
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    • 1979
  • Two types of fiat-plate collector were designed and constructed for utilizing the solar energy as heating source of red pepper drying. It was performed to investigate the basic factors on using the collectors and the drying effect on various types of red pepper, and the results obtained are summarized as follows. 1. The optimum tilted angles of the collector in Daejeon area were ${\phi}-15^{\circ}$ in summer season and ${\phi}+15^{\circ}$ in winter season when it was adjusted two times per a year: 2. In the conditions during experiment period, average atmospheric temperature and relative humidity were $25.6^{\circ}C$ and 52.6%, respectively, and $42.0^{\circ}C$, 74.2% in the control chamber. The temperature in the drying chamber connected to the water heater was the highest but relative humidity in the chamber connected to the air heater was the lowest among the chambers. 3. The drying velocity of whole red pepper in the chamber connected to the water heater was the fastest as 2.3 times as compared to the whole type on the mat drying followed by air heater and control in decreasing order. The horizontally cut red pepper in the chamber connected to the water heater was dried exceedingly fast among twelve plots. 4. The content of capsaicine as pungent principle and of capsanthine as red pigment in the red pepper were reduced during drying but there were no differences significantly on the drying method, and it could not affect much on the quality of dried product.

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An Experimental Study on the Pore Structure and Thermal Properties of Lightweight Foamed Concrete by Foaming Agent Type (기포제 종류에 따른 경량기포콘크리트의 기포구조 및 열적특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Man;Choi, Hun-Gug;Park, Sun-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the use of lightweight panels in building structures has been increasing. Of the various lightweight panel types, styrofoam sandwich panels are inexpensive and are excellent in terms of their insulation capacity and their constructability. However, sandwich panels that include organic material are quite vulnerable to fire, and thus can numerous casualties in the event of a fire due to the lack of time to vacate and their emission of poisonous gas. On the other hand, lightweight foamed concrete is excellent, both in terms of its insulation ability and its fire resistance, due to its Inner pores. The properties of lightweight concrete is influenced by foaming agent type. Accordingly, this study investigates the insulation properties by foaming agent type, to evaluate the possibility of using light-weight foamed concrete instead of styrene foam. Our research found thatnon-heating zone temperature of lightweight foamed concrete using AP (Aluminum Powder) and FP (animal protein foaming agent) are lower than that of light-weight foamed concrete using AES (alkyl ether lactic acid ester). Lightweight foamed concrete using AES and FP satisfied fire performance requirements of two hours at a foam ratio 50, 100. Lightweight foamed concrete using AP satisfied fire performance requirements of two hours at AP ratio 0.1, 0.15. The insulation properties were better in closed pore foamed concrete by made AP, FP than with open pore foamed concrete made using AES.

Development of Vivorium, a new indoor horticultural ornamental plants via plant tissue culture techniques (식물조직배양 기술을 이용한 새로운 실내 원예 장식품인 비보리움(Vivorium)의 개발)

  • Hwang, Min Hee;Kim, Do Yeon;Cho, In Sun;Kim, Mi Hyung;Kwon, Hyun Sook;Kim, Jong Bo;Kim, Su Jung;Kim, Sun Hyung
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2021
  • Indoor gardening includes wall greening, terrariums, and flower arrangements. Among these types of indoor gardens, the terrarium is easy to access for the general public, but in Korea, because of the focus on esthetics, the original purpose of creating terrariums, which was to grow plants sustainably in an enclosed space, has been lost. In addition, miniaturization of plants is required to grow plants in an enclosed space. Since the available plant species suitable for a terrarium are limited, only plants such as succulents, cacti, and moss have been used. In this study, Bronze (X Graptosedum) was used, and these problems were solved using the following three methods: placement and growth of virus-free plants in the terrarium; extending the diversity of plants with minimal size that can be planted in terrariums; and reducing the price of in vitro plants with minimal size by achieving large-scale production. In particular, tissue-cultured succulents were developed into a Vivorium by replacing the tissue culture container and renewing the composition of the plant. This paper suggests a new indoor horticultural field, Vivorium, that can improve the current limitations of terrariums and make them more accessible to the general public. The introduction and popularization of new indoor gardening fields with the increase in single-person households and indoor activities in the Pandemic era can also improve psychological stability among people and in the society.

The Relationship Between DEA Model-based Eco-Efficiency and Economic Performance (DEA 모형 기반의 에코효율성과 경제적 성과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 2014
  • Growing interest of stakeholders on corporate responsibilities for environment and tightening environmental regulations are highlighting the importance of environmental management more than ever. However, companies' awareness of the importance of environment is still falling behind, and related academic works have not shown consistent conclusions on the relationship between environmental performance and economic performance. One of the reasons is different ways of measuring these two performances. The evaluation scope of economic performance is relatively narrow and the performance can be measured by a unified unit such as price, while the scope of environmental performance is diverse and a wide range of units are used for measuring environmental performances instead of using a single unified unit. Therefore, the results of works can be different depending on the performance indicators selected. In order to resolve this problem, generalized and standardized performance indicators should be developed. In particular, the performance indicators should be able to cover the concepts of both environmental and economic performances because the recent idea of environmental management has expanded to encompass the concept of sustainability. Another reason is that most of the current researches tend to focus on the motive of environmental investments and environmental performance, and do not offer a guideline for an effective implementation strategy for environmental management. For example, a process improvement strategy or a market discrimination strategy can be deployed through comparing the environment competitiveness among the companies in the same or similar industries, so that a virtuous cyclical relationship between environmental and economic performances can be secured. A novel method for measuring eco-efficiency by utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is able to combine multiple environmental and economic performances, is proposed in this report. Based on the eco-efficiencies, the environmental competitiveness is analyzed and the optimal combination of inputs and outputs are recommended for improving the eco-efficiencies of inefficient firms. Furthermore, the panel analysis is applied to the causal relationship between eco-efficiency and economic performance, and the pooled regression model is used to investigate the relationship between eco-efficiency and economic performance. The four-year eco-efficiencies between 2010 and 2013 of 23 companies are obtained from the DEA analysis; a comparison of efficiencies among 23 companies is carried out in terms of technical efficiency(TE), pure technical efficiency(PTE) and scale efficiency(SE), and then a set of recommendations for optimal combination of inputs and outputs are suggested for the inefficient companies. Furthermore, the experimental results with the panel analysis have demonstrated the causality from eco-efficiency to economic performance. The results of the pooled regression have shown that eco-efficiency positively affect financial perform ances(ROA and ROS) of the companies, as well as firm values(Tobin Q, stock price, and stock returns). This report proposes a novel approach for generating standardized performance indicators obtained from multiple environmental and economic performances, so that it is able to enhance the generality of relevant researches and provide a deep insight into the sustainability of environmental management. Furthermore, using efficiency indicators obtained from the DEA model, the cause of change in eco-efficiency can be investigated and an effective strategy for environmental management can be suggested. Finally, this report can be a motive for environmental management by providing empirical evidence that environmental investments can improve economic performance.

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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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