• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.209-237
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• 2006

Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.41-48
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• 2009

As enactment and enforcement of capital markets integration law, investment banks are going to be appeared in our financial market and be able to provide payment services. To provide these kinds of services, investment banks need to be participated in the financial network. As the financial network enormously affect the economy, the operation of the network will require a variety of risk managements. In this paper we define operational risk management criteria for the financial network such as security, in-time response, economical efficiency and stability to be required for the healthy economy and propose the configuration of the financial network system based on virtual private networks for investment banks to provide payment services. Finally we analyze that the proposed VPN configuration for financial networks has high security and in-time response with the cost and operation effective.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.189-209
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• 2017

Financial institutions around the world, including financially advanced nations, widely operate a credit information sharing system to ease off information asymmetry between financial institutions and financial consumers. This study analyzed the credit problem data that is actually being shared among financial institutions in Korea, and classified credit problem data into three categories; Frequency, Period, Amount. In survival analysis, this study analyzed how different types of credit problem influence on survival period of companies. Next, in comparative analysis, this study verified a difference between start-up companies and existing companies on classified conditions of the credit problems. After conducting a survival and comparative analysis of the credit information of 449,579 companies of 8 years' actual information sharing in Korea, it showed that the number of the frequency of accidents showed a positive(+) correlation with the survival period. This provides contrary evidence to the financial institutions' risk policies that the number of the frequency of accidents is a negative factor. Furthermore, since the start-up companies that are under 7 years old show more positive aspect in the survival period than existing companies, it draws a policy implication that the credit information sharing system need to be improved by taking account of characteristics of the start-up companies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1065-1075
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• 2008

For the model validation of credit rating models, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) statistic has been widely used as a testing method of discriminatory power from the probabilities of default for default and non-default. For the credit rating works, K-S statistics are to test two identical distribution functions which are partitioned from a distribution. In this paper under the assumption that the distribution is known, modified K-S statistic which is formulated by using known distributions is proposed and compared K-S statistic.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.697-708
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• 2008

Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or external events. The advanced measurement approach proposed by Basel committee uses loss distribution approach(LDA) which quantifies operational loss based on bank's own historical data and measurement system. LDA involves two distribution fittings(frequency and severity) and then generates aggregate loss distribution by employing mathematical convolution. An objective validation for the operational risk measurement is essential because the operational risk measurement allows flexibility and subjective judgement to calculate regulatory capital. However, the methodology to verify the soundness of the operational risk measurement was not fully developed because the internal operational loss data had been extremely sparse and the modeling of extreme tail was very difficult. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the validation of operational risk measurement based on bootstrap confidence intervals of operational VaR(value at risk). We derived two methods to generate confidence intervals of operational VaR.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.63
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• pp.245-260
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• 2014

This study is aimed to summarize a tense situation of Risk management for Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprise in 2013 and to investigate trade insurance of K-sure. Now we have to find a new way to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises from uncertain environment and also need to prevent a recurrence of parallel cases in the domain of South-North economic cooperation in Korean peninsula. There are two method to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises. First they rely on the Korea government for protection. Second they need to effect trade insurance of K-sure. such as Export Credit Guaranty or Short-term Export Insurance. They shall create a wise predictable environment to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises themselves without resort to Korea government. Of course there are many things left behind to consider I hope it will be helpful to those who prepare South-North economic cooperation especially in Kaesong Industrial Complex.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.68-80
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• 2001

While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.253-268
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• 2011

In this paper, we estimate systematic risk from credit migration (or transition) matrices under "Asymptotic Single Risk Factor" model. We analyzed transition matrices issued by KR(Korea Ratings) and concluded that systematic risk implied on credit migration somewhat coincide with the real economic cycle. Especially, we found that systematic risk implied on credit migration is better than that implied on the default rate. We also emphasize how to conduct a stress test using systematic risk extracted from transition migration. We argue that the proposed method in this paper is better than the usual method that is only considered for the conditional probability of default(PD). We found that the expected loss critically increased when we explicitly consider the change of credit quality in a given portfolio, compared to the method considering only PD.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.119-131
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• 2024

In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.39-79
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• 2005

This paper addresses the question of whether a monopolistic banking system can lead to a higher steady state level of capital stock. Information externality has enhanced as the advance of the financial system such as the establishment of the credit bureau system, networking, etc. Hence this paper aims to analyze the effects of both information externality and economic development on the determination of the optimal banking market structure. This paper shows that the presence of information externality together with asymmetric information would explain how a monopoly bank leads to a higher steady state level of capital stock. It also shows that not only under-developed countries but industrialized countries may also benefit from a concentrated banking system. This analysis provides an alternative explanation of the recent deregulation and resulting trends in mergers and acquisitions. This also provides a theoretical foundation to support governments' policy changes toward promoting merger and acquisition activities.