• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.3155-3161
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• 2015

This paper attempts to analyze the socio-economic determinants of demanders for cultural performance. To take into account zero responses (no expenditure or no experience for cultural performance, this paper employed a two-equation model and tobit model. the results of this study can be obtained the following conclusion. The demands of performing arts tend to be increased to people as they were younger, women, more earned and higher educated. In addition, the income is inelastic to demand. And after a certain age (peak age), the demand is increased.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.171-194
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• 2008

This paper analysis the long-run demand for monetary indicator M2 and Liquidity indicator L in Korea in the period from 1980:1 to 2006:3 by cointegration and error correction models. The empirical evidence that M2, L in Korea is meaningfully cointegrated with income, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation uncertainty, real effective exchange rate, exchange rate uncertainty and LIBOR, thus showing the existence of long-run demand function under open-economy framework.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.10-21
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• 2021

This study analyzed how external variables, such as the supply policy of shared bicycles and the spread of infectious diseases, affect the demand for shared bicycle use in the COVID-19 era. In addition, this paper presents a methodology for more accurate predictions. The Seasonal Auto-Regulatory Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous stressors methodology was applied to capture the effects of exogenous variables on existing time series models. The exogenous variables that affected the future demand for shared bicycles, such as COVID-19 and the supply of public bicycles, were statistically significant. As a result, from the supply volume and COVID-19 outbreak according to the scenario, it was estimated that approximately 46,000 shared bicycles would be supplied by 2022, and the COVID-19 cases would continue to be at the current level. In addition, approximately 32 million and 45 million units per year will be needed in 2021 and 2024, respectively.

• JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL WORLD
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• s.349
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• pp.90-94
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• 2006

“해마다늘어만가는지구촌곳곳의기상이변, 특히세계유전지대의혹독한풍수해가지난해와마찬가지로일시에밀어닥친다면올해도국제유가의고공행진은하늘을찌를것이다.” 고유가가대세로점쳐지고있는가운데 2 0 0 6년새해를맞아유가의고공행진에대한극단적인우려감이높다. 지난해지구촌이 겪은미국발 허리케인의공포가채 가시지 않은 탓이다. 고유가의정착으로 인해고통을감내한 세계각국은올해초 국제유가의향방을대부분부정적으로내다보고있다. 고유가의원인으로는수요급증에따른수급불균형을우선꼽으면서도고공행진의유가를촉발할여러가지변수도다각도로진단하고있다. 지난해40% 가까이급등한국제유가는올한해에도고공비행을계속할것으로보고있는가운데일부언론은유가 6 0달러시대는이제기정사실화됐다고보도하기도했다. 만약부정적인상황이온다면“WTI 가격은최고 8 0달러, 두바이유가격은최고 6 7달러수준까지상승한다”는전망이나오는가하면“미국과이란의정치적충돌로페르시아만폐쇄사태라도터진다면유가가배럴당 1 0 0달러까지도치솟을수있다”는 경고도 나오고 있다. 우려는 하되 긍정적인 시각도 있다. 고유가가 올해 인플레에 미칠 영향에 대해 경제협력개발기구( O E C D ) 의코엔빈센트수석애널리스트가바로이경우다. 그는최근의고유가는지난 7 0년대와 8 0년대초의석유파동때와는성격이다르다고전제하면서다음과같이진단했다. “당시는공급쪽의충격이컸으나이제는수요급증으로발생하는것”이라고지적하며“선진권경제의석유의존도가크게떨어진점도고유가의파고가큰우려가되지않는다”고밝히고있다. 국내 전문가들도중동정세가 안정되고 미국 경기가 크게 둔화돼 석유수요가감소할경우에도 O P E C의 적극적 감산이예상돼유가가 4 0달러대밑으로내려가기는어려울것으로내다보고있다. 케임브리지에너지연구소( C E R A ) 의경우브렌트유기준으로 지난 연말 배럴당 5 5 . 4달러에서 올해는 5 3 . 5달러로되레떨어질것으로내다봤다. 2006년미국과중국의석유수요가대폭둔화될경우배럴당 4 1 . 3달러까지하락할수도있다는전망을내놨다. 그러나주요산유국의공급차질로인한비관 적인상황이도래할경우엔배럴당7 6달러까지도급등할것이라는경고도덧붙였다. 하여튼 2 0 0 6년유가의향방은고공추세에다주변변수가어떻게잘마무리되느냐, 나아가돌발풍수해에따라선‘껑충’거릴수밖에없다는진단이우세하다. 새해를맞아최근의국제유가동향과나아가유가의향방및변수를진단해봤다.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.42-58
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• 2011

This paper starts from one question: what are the key factors of the web accessibility policy, which is significant for realizing equity in the web and enhancing human dignity in the information society. To find significant factors for complying with web accessibility, this paper analyzes panel data of 16 Korean local governments (for five years: 2004-2009) according to the research design which is based on the demand and supply balance model and consists of four variables : 'legal and institutional environment (including legal infrastructure)', 'financial foundation (fiscal self-reliance ratio)', 'policy inputs (amount of imformatization budget, employee of information experts)'and 'policy demand (internet usage rate, the number of disabled people and elderly people)'. From the results of this study, this paper can explain the mechanism and impact factors on the web accessibility policy of Korean local governments. Some factors are critical to improve web accessibility: (1) the importance of policy demand, (2) the importance of policy inputs, (3) the importance of legal and institutional environment. Finally, this paper concludes with some suggestions to enhance the web accessibility capacity for Korean local governments: (1) improve awareness on web accessibility, (2) develop a standard and invest R&D on web accessibility, (3) foster experts in web accessibility.

• Annual Conference of KIPS
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• 2020.05a
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• pp.323-326
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• 2020

태양광 발전은 이산화탄소 배출로 인한 기후 변화에 대응하는 주요 수단으로 인식되어 수요와 필요성이 급격하게 증가하고 있다. 최적의 태양광 발전 시스템의 운영을 위해서는 정교한 전력수요 및 태양광 발전량 예측 모델이 요구되며, 온도 및 일사량은 태양광 발전량 예측 모델의 필수적인 입력 변수이다. 하지만, 한국 기상청의 동네예보는 일사량에 관한 예측값을 제공하지 않아 정교한 태양광 발전량 예측 모델을 구축하는 것은 어렵다. 이를 위해 일사량 예측 기법에 관한 많은 연구사례가 보고되고 있지만, 다수의 연구들은 충분한 데이터 셋을 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 개발하였다. 초기 태양광 발전 시스템 운영을 위해서는 불충분한 데이터 셋을 이용한 예측 모델 개발이 필요하나 이에 대한 사례는 불충분하다. 본 논문은 실제 태양광 발전 시스템에서 수집된 불충분한 데이터 셋을 이용한 단기 일사량 예측 기법을 제안한다. 먼저, 기상청 동네예보의 다양한 기상 요인들을 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 위한 입력 변수를 구성한다. 다음으로, 조건부 랜덤 포레스트를 이용하여 일사량 예측 모델을 구성하며, 설명 가능한 일사량 예측뿐만 아니라 더욱더 많은 데이터 셋을 학습하기 위해 시계열 교차검증을 수행한다. 실험 결과, 제안한 기법은 다른 예측 기법들보다 높은 예측 정확도를 보일 뿐만 아니라 설명 가능한 예측 결과를 제시할 수 있음을 보여준다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.137-144
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• 2007

This study involves an analytical approach to determine transit dispatching schedules (headways) Determining a time schedule is an important process in transit system planning. In general, the transit headway should be shorter during the peak hour than at non-peak hours for demand-responsive service. It allows passengers to minimize their waiting time under inelastic, fixed demand conditions. The transit headway should be longer as operating costs increase, and shorter as demand and waiting time increase. Optimal headway depends on the amount of ridership. and each individual vehicle dispatching time depends on the distribution of the ridership. This study provides a theoretical foundation for the dispatching scheme consistent with common sense. Previous research suggested a dispatching scheme with even headway. However, according to this research, that is valid for a specific case when the demand pattern is uniform. This study is a general analysis expanding that previous research. This study suggests an easy method to set a time table without a complex and difficult calculation. Further. if the time axis is changed to the space axis instead, this study could be expanded to address the spacing problems of some facilities such as roads. stations, routes and others.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.47-54
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• 2004

Recently, a large reduction in domestic aviation demand had roughly shown in the range between 34% and 75% in east central and western corridor of Korea. The reasons for the drop in air traffic demand were the provisioning of several new highway serveces and the national economic difficulties. Since April 2004, moreover, the Korea Train Express(KTX) was operated between Seoul and Daegu in the first phrase of 293Km in KTX operational distance and 258Km in air route distance. The operation of KTX significantly impacted air traffic volume, particularly on the overlapped air routes with KTX routes. This study analyzed the effects on air traffic demand in accordance with the opening of KTX by applying the Stated Preference (SP) survey method, the survey conducted prior to 8 months of the KTX initiative. Also, the comparison of the decreased demand forecast by SP analysis and actual revealed traffic volume during two months service after inauguration of KTX was conducted. The Seoul-Daegu route was analysed using the 3 variables considered access and egress time, fare rate, operational frequency. The result obtained from the analysis showed that air users would be preferred only 14%. Comparatively, however, the actual revealed air passengers after the opening KTX were remained 28%, The less "decreased demand" was caused by the instability of the KTX's operation in the initial stage. Therefore, small numbers of passenger were preferable to airservices rather than high speed railroad service.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.33-51
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• 2011

This study investigates the spatial characteristics of the provision of and demand for the private tutoring service industries and the consumer groups. For the purpose, we analyze the spatial characteristics of various types of tutoring institutes in the Seoul Metropolitan area. In particular, we exam the spatial distribution patterns of attendants of tutoring institutes by institution type as well as the resident population by attendant age group. By applying spatial autocorrelation analysis, we examine the spatial clustering patterns of tutoring institutes and attendants by type. The results show distinct differences in the spatial distribution patterns by tutoring institute type as well as by attendant age group. We found significant socio-economic variables which influence on the spatial distribution of tutoring institutes. Finally, we propose private tutoring service provision models constructed with these variables through multiple regression analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 1980

The purpose of this study is to analyze and to forecast the long-term domestic demand and export demand for timber in Korea by regression models with time series data during 1962~1978. The method applied in this study was econometric analysis using Time Series Processor. The most important explanatory variables of timber demand were found to be the production activities of wood products industries to the prices of substitute goods. On the basis of the long-term forecast made according to the guidelines of the Fifth Five-Year Plan. According to the projection, domestic timber demand is projected at 8 million cubic meters in 1987 and 10.6 million cubic meters in 1991. On the other hand, the total demand (domestic demand plus export demand) for timber is projected 21.4 million cubic meters in 1987 and 27.2 million cubic meters in 1991.