• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수명분포

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A Study of Optimal path Availability Clustering algorithm in Ad Hoc network (에드 혹 네트워크에서 최적 경로의 유효성 있는 클러스터링 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Young-Jun;Lee, Kang-Whan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.278-280
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    • 2012
  • We are propose the position of the node context-awareness information and the validity of the head node in the path according to the clustering how to elect one of the energy efficiency ECOPS (Energy Conserving Optimal path Schedule) algorithm. Existing LEACH algorithm to elect the head node when the node's energy probability distribution function based on the management of the head node is optional cycle. However, in this case, the distance of the relay node status information including context-awareness parameters does not reflect. These factors are not suitable for the relay node or nodes are included in the probability distribution, if the head node selects occurs. In particular, to solve the problems from the LEACH-based hierarchical clustering algorithms, this study defines location with the status context information and the residual energy factor in choosing topology of the structure adjacent nodes. ECOPS algorithm that contextual information is contributed for head node selection in topology protocols. The proposed ECOPS algorithm has the head node replacement situations from the candidate head node in the optimal path and efficient energy conservation that is the path of the member nodes. The new head node election show as the entire node lifetime and network management technique improving the network lifetime and efficient management the simulation results.

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Effect of Tire Contact Stresses on Tensile Strains in the Surface of Thin Asphalt Pavement (접지압력이 앎은 아스팔트포장 표층 인장 변형률에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Wook;Park, Joon-Kyu
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, comparisons are presented on the predicted tensile strains which can affect the fatigue life of a thin asphalt concrete (AC) pavement near the surface of pavement from three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) using 3D measured tire contact stresses of a radial tire and a bias ply tire and a layered linear elastic program (BISAR). The objective was to analyze the stress distributions for a 11R22.5 radial tire and a $10{\times}20$ bias ply tire, and to compare the predicted tensile strains at the top and bottom of AC surface using different analysis methods. The results show that the stress distributions of two tires are similar but the 11R22.5 radial tire has much higher vertical contact stress than that of the $10{\times}20$ bias ply tire. The predicted tensile strains at the bottom of AC layer under the center of tire showed higher value by BM (BISAR with the measured contact area) method, which the measured tire contact area is used in a layered elastic program, while the tensile strain at the top of AC surface of 3.5cm offset distance from tire edge by 3D FE analysis showed the highest values among three analysis methods.

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Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

A Clinical Study on the Prevalence of Skin Diseases in Adult Patients - focused on an ageing society (성인 피부질환 발생빈도에 대한 임상적 연구 - 고령화 사회를 중심으로)

  • Choi, In-Hwa
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.242-248
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    • 2006
  • 배경 : 의과학과 사회-경제학의 발전은 인간 수명 연장에 지대한 공헌을 해 왔다. 그러나 결과적으로 피부 질환으로 고생하는 노인 인구도 증가하였다. 본 연구에서는 동국대학교 한방 안이비인후피부과에 피부질환을 주소증으로 내원한 성인 환자들을 대상으로 임상 양상을 조사해 보고 고령사회에서 어떻게 한방 피부과 의료 수요 변화에 대처하고 발전해 나아갈 수 있을지 그 방법을 모색해 볼 수 있는 근거 자료로 활용하기 위해 수행하였다. 연구방법 : 2002년 1월부터 2004년 12월 까지 3년 동안 동국대학교 한방 안이비인후피부과에 피부 질환을 주소증으로 내원한 319명의 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 그들을 내원시기, 연령, 성별로 나누어 질환별 분포를 조사하였다. 통계분석은 $X^2$ test(Window, SPSS 11.0)를 사용하였고 p <.05를 유의수준으로 하였다. 결과 : 2002년부터 2004년 까지 질환별 분포를 살펴보면 습진 21.9%, 소양증 20.4%. 여드름 16.9%,로 나타났다. 2002년에는 습진 17.0%, 소양증 16.0%, 여드름이 14.9%였다. 2003년에는 소양증 34.2%, 두드러기가 23,3%, 습진이 17.1%였다. 2004년에는 습진 61.4%, 여드름 21.1%, 소양증 15.8%였다. 이들 결과는 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 보였다($X^2\;=\;54.135^{***}$, p = .000, df : 20). 남자에서는 습진이 25.0%로 가장 많았고 소양증 19.5%, 두드러기 12.5%, 지루성 피부염 11.7%로 나타났다. 여자에서는 여드름이 22.0%로 가장 많았고 소양증 20.9%, 습진 19.9%였다. 이들 결과는 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 보였다($X^2\;=\;19.839^*$, p = .031, df : 10). 20대 환자에서는 여드름이 24.1%로 가장 많았고 습진과 소양증이 각각 19.5%였다. 30대 환자군에서는 습진이 30.3%였고 소양증이 19.1%였다. 40대에서는 소양증이 28.8%였고 지루성 피부염이 16.0%였다. 50대에서는 습진이 26.7%였고 60세 이상의 그룹에서는 습진이 50.0%, 바이러스 질환과 소양증이 각각 15.0%였다. 이들 결과는 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 보였다($X^2\;=\;74.995^{**}$, p = .001, df : 40). 결론 : 상대적으로 50세 이상 연령충의 대상 환자 수가 많지 않은 원인은 여리 가지 분석이 가능할 것으로 생각된다. 연령에 따라 피부질환이 다른 양상을 보임을 고려할 때 노인층의 신체적, 경제적, 사회적 특성을 이해하고 이에 따른 효과적이고 사회-경제학적 부담을 최소할 수 있는 한방 치료 영역의 확대 및 개발이 필요할 것으로 사려된다.

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The Ecological Characteristics of the Winter Cherry Bug Acanthocoris sordidus (Hemiptera) and the Effects of Colony Formation on its Potential as an Insect Pest (잠재해충 꽈리허리노린재(Acanthocoris sordidus, Coreidae, Hemiptera)의 무리군 형성에 따른 생태적 특성)

  • Kang, Chan Yeong;Ryu, Tae Hee;Kwon, Hye Ri;Yu, Yong Man;Youn, Young Nam
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2016
  • The winter cherry bug, Acanthocoris sordidus (Thunberg), is an insect pest hat damages plants from Solanaceae and Convolvulaceae. The developmental period from egg to adult averages 76 days at $25^{\circ}C$. Adult egg-laying occurred irregularly via spawning, averaging 195 (up to 468) eggs per individual on the abaxial leaf surface of the host plant. Results of linear regression indicated that the lower developmental threshold temperature was $13.9^{\circ}C$ and the effective accumulated temperature was 526.3 DD. Data from a pepper field in 2015 indicated that overwintering adults first appeared during late June (daily average temperature = $25.7^{\circ}C$), reaching maximum density by early September. A choice test examining colonization preferences using a net cage and a Y-tube olfactometer revealed that females gravitated toward conspecifics (other females, males, or both), whereas males moved toward empty areas. Finally, we found that communal breeding results in a longer developmental period and higher eclosion rates than solitary breeding. Developmental periods and eclosion rates were also for colonies in a large space than for those in a small space. This outcome suggests that colonization effects on insect development are stronger in a smaller area.

Seasonal Occurrence of the Larvae and Adults of Chestnut Weevil, Curculio sikkimensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (밤바구미(Curculio sikkimensis) 유충과 성충의 발생소장)

  • Kim, Young-Jae;Yoon, Chang-Mann;Shin, Sang-Chul;Choi, Kwang-Sik;Kim, Gil-Hah
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to investigate the seasonal occurrence of chestnut weevil, Curculio sikkimensis. The chestnuts infected by the weevils were collected from Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang in Chungnam Province, Republic of Korea. Investigation was focus on the escape period of chestnut weevil larvae from the fruits, invading time and vertical distribution in soil, survival rates of larvae during overwintering, emergence period, emergence rate, and sex ratio and longevity of adults. For precocious species, larvae escaped the chestnut from the mid-September to the early-October, middle species and slow species, were escaped from the late-September to the mid-October and from the early-October to the mid-November. After escaping from the chestnut fruits all of the larvae burrowed into the soil within 35 minutes. Overwintering larvae inhabited in the range of $0{\sim}48cm$ from the soil surface and highly distributed in the range of $18{\sim}36cm$. The 74.1 % of wintering chamber were distributed within $18{\sim}36cm$ from the surface. Survival rates observed were 38.0% in 1st year, 16.0% in 2nd years, and 2% in 3rd years, respectively. Seasonal occurrence period of C. sikkimensis was from the early-Aug. to early-Oct. and the optimal occurrence period was the early and mid-Sept. Emergence rate decreased to 8.4% in 1st year, 3.6% in 2nd years, and 0.8% in 3rd years, respectively. Sex ratio was showed in the range of 0.51-0.55. It is female biased ratio. Longevity of adults was 9.9 days for female and 8.9 days for male.

Predicting Financial Success of a Movie Using Bayesian Choice Model (베이지안 선택 모형을 이용한 영화흥행 예측)

  • Lee Gyeong-Jae;Jang U-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1851-1856
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    • 2006
  • 영화는 대표적인 경험재로 가치판단이 주관적이고 제품 수명주기가 매우 짧아 예측의 불확실성이 높기 때문에 이를 정량적인 방법으로 모형화하기는 쉽지 않다. 이러한 한계점에도 불구하고 한 영화의 상업적 성공을 예측하는 것은 영화 제작자나 배급사, 극장 등 모든 주체에게 수익과 직결되는 중요한 문제이기 때문에 지금까지 다양한 통계 모형이 제시되었다. 그러나 이들 모형의 대부분은 영화흥행에는 영향을 미치나 측정할 수 없는 효과를 반영하지 못한다거나, 추정 모수의 효과가 모든 영화에 대해서 같다는 동일성 가정으로 인해 영화간 이질성을 고려하지 못하고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 추정 모수의 사전분포를 모호사전분포로 정의함으로써 변수들의 불확실성을 반영할 수 있고, 영화간 이질성을 고려할 수 있는 베이지안 선택 모형을 제안하였다. 모수의 사후분포는 마코프체인 몬테카를로 기법인 깁스 샘플러를 이용하여 추정하였다. 또한, 감독, 배우, 장르 등의 영화 별 속성 변수뿐만 아니라, 입소문에 의한 영화관람 결정 등의 구전효과와 경쟁영화의 개봉으로 인한 효과를 반영할 수 있는 변수를 추가하여 모형의 정확성을 높였다. 2005년과 2006년 상반기에 상영된 영화를 바탕으로 모형을 구축하고 인공신경망 모형과 비교한 결과, 전체적인 예측 정확도에서는 인공신경망 모형과 비슷한 결과를 보이나 상업적으로 성공한 영화를 예측하는 데에는 베이지안 선택모형이 보다 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 개봉 주의 경쟁심화 정도 및 개봉 첫 주의 스크린 수 등이 영화 흥행에 가장 중요한 변수로 나타났으며, 영화 개봉 전 그 영화에 대한 기대치가 높을수록 흥행 성적 또한 좋음을 알 수 있었다. 배우의 힘 및 계절성, 영화 평점 등은 이질성을 고려하지 않은 전체수준에서는 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났으나, 그룹 간 이질성을 반영한 모형에서는 어느 정도 흥행한 영화를 만들기 위해서는 고려되어야 할 요소로 나타났다.렇지 않을 경우 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 도출할 때까지 추가적인 분석과정을 반복한다. 제안한 방법을 통하여 조직은 기술적 생산 가능성 외에도 다양한 조직 운영 관점에서 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 선정할 수 있으며, 이에 따른 목표를 수립할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 또한 더 나아가 global efficiency 관점에서 효율적 조직이 되기 위하여 단계적인 벤치마킹 대상 선정과 이에 따른 목표를 수립하는데도 유용하리라 판단된다.$1.20{\pm}0.37L$, 72시간에 $1.33{\pm}0.33L$로 유의한 차이를 보였으므로(F=6.153, P=0.004), 술 후 폐환기능 회복에 효과가 있다. 4) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 노력성 폐활량은 수술 후 72시간에서 실험군이 $1.90{\pm}0.61L$, 대조군이 $1.51{\pm}0.38L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.620, P=0.013). 5) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 일초 노력성 호기량은 수술 후 24시간에서 $1.33{\pm}0.56L,\;1.00{\ge}0.28L$로 유의한 차이를 보였고(t=2.530, P=0.017), 술 후 72시간에서 $1.72{\pm}0.65L,\;1.33{\pm}0.3L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.540, P=0.016). 6) 대상자의 술 후 폐환기능에 영향을 미치는 요인은 성별로 나타났다. 이에 따른 폐환기능의 차이를 보면, 실험군의 술 후 노력성 폐활량이 48시간에 남자($1.78{\pm}0.61L$)가 여자($1.27{\pm}0.45L$)보다 더 높게 나타났으며 (t=2.170, P=0.042), 72시간에도 역시 남자($2.16{\pm}0.56L$)가 여자($1.50{\pm}0.47L$)보다 더

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Population Dynamics of Smoothshell Shrimp, Parapenaeopsis tenella from the Coastal Area of Geomun-do, Korea (한국 거문도 인근해역의 만새우, Parapenaeopsis tenella의 개체군 동태)

  • Oh, Taek-Yun;Cha, Hyung-Kee;Choi, Jung-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2004
  • Parapenaeopsis tenella occurs widely on the south and west coasts of Korea. Sex ratio showed seasonal variations, with a mean value of 48.6% for the females. The species produces one cohort a year, with the ovaries ripening from July to August. Insemination took place from July to August, as more than half of the females sampled in the study over 14 mm CL were inseminated. Gonadosomatic index (GSI) reached the maximum between July and August. The smallest mature female was 11 mm CL. Size at 50% sexual maturity ($CL_{50}$), determined from both mature females and inseminated females, was 12.53 mm and 12.28 mm CL, respectively. The life span of females appeared to be 14-15 months according to size frequency distributions, while that of the male was 13-14 months. Population growth was estimated by the modified von Bertalanffy growth function incorporating seasonal variation in growth. Based on the growth parameters (K = 1.22 $yr^{-1}$ and $L_{\infty}$ = 21.99 mm CL for females, and K = 2.00 $yr^{-1}$ and $L_{\infty}$ = 15.00 mm CL for males) growth curves showed that females grew faster and reached a larger size at age than males.

Detectability of Pore Defect in Wind Turbine Blade Composites Using Image Correlation Technique (이미지 상관 기법을 이용한 풍력 발전 블레이드용 복합재료의 기공 결함 검출능)

  • Kim, Jong Il;Huh, Yong Hak;Lee, Gun Chang
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.1201-1206
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    • 2013
  • Defects that occur during the manufacturing process or operation of a wind turbine blade have a great influence on its life and safety. Typically, defects such as delamination, pore, wrinkle and matrix crack are found in a blade. In this study, the detectability of the pores, a type of defect that frequently occur during manufacturing, was examined from the full field strain distribution determined with the image correlation technique. Pore defects were artificially introduced in four-ply laminated GFRP composites with $0^{\circ}/{\pm}45^{\circ}$ fiber direction. The artificial pores were introduced in consideration of their size and location. Three different-sized pores with diameter of 1, 2 and 3 mm were located on the top and bottom surface and embedded. By applying static loads of 0-200 MPa, the strain distributions over the specimen with the pore defects were determined using image correlation technique. It was found the pores with diameter exceeding 2 mm can be detected in diameter.

Occurrence and Ecological Characteristics of Ostrinia furnacalis Guenee, in Adlay Field (율무 재배지(栽培地) 조명나방 발생생태(發生生態))

  • Chang, Seog-Won;Yi, Eun-Sub;Kim, Ki-Jung;Lee, Hyo-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.328-332
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    • 1998
  • This study was carried out to investigate the occurrence and ecological characteristics of Ostrinia furnacalis(Guenee) in Yonchon, northern part of Kyonggi province, where it is main production region of adlay in Korea. The Asian corn borer in adlay field had three generations a year. The first stage of adult activity was greatest from middle May to late June, the second from late July to middle August and the third from late August to middle September. The egg period was $3{\sim}4$ days. The longevity of adult was $7{\sim}11$ days. The days of each development stage from egg to adult were $51{\sim}61$, $33{\sim}42$ and $29{\sim}37$ days in 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations, respectively. The overwintering stage of Asian corn borer was the last instar larvae and it overwintered in the adlay stubbles.

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