• 제목/요약/키워드: 성장예측

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Crack Growth Life Prediction of Hollow Shaft with Circumferential Through Type Crack by Torsion (원주방향 관통형 균열을 가지는 중공축의 비틀림에 의한 균열성장수명 예측)

  • Yeonhi Kim;Jungsun Park
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • Power transmission shafts in rotary wing aircraft use a hollow shaft to reduce weight. We can apply linear elastic fracture mechanics to predict crack propagation behavior. This paper predicted crack growth life of a hollow shaft with a circumferential through-type crack by finite element analysis. A 2D finite element model was created by applying a torsion and forming elements considering cracks. We defined the initial crack length and performed the finite element analysis by increasing the crack length to derive stress intensity factor at crack tips. We defined the length just prior to the stress intensity factor exceeding the fracture toughness as the crack limit length. We calculated the crack limit length using a handbook and numerically integrated the crack growth rate equation to derive growth life of each crack. The growth life of each crack was compared to verify the proposed finite element analysis method.

Numerical Analysis on the Beat and Mass Transport in Horizontal MOCVD Reactor for the Growth of GaN Epitaxy (수평형 MOCVD에 의한 GaN 에피층 성장시 반응로내의 열 및 물질전달에 관한 수치해석 연구)

  • 신창용;윤정모;이철로;백병준
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.341-349
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    • 2001
  • Numerical calculation has been performed to investigate the fluid flow, heat transfer and local mass fraction of chemical species in the MOCVD(metalorganic chemical vapor deposition) manufacturing process. The mixing of reactants (trimethylgallium with hydrogen gas and ammonia) was presented by the concentration of each reactant to predict the uniformity of film growth. Effects of inlet size, location, mass flow rate and susceptor/cold wall tilt angle on the concentration were reported. From the numerical calculation, the concentration of reactants could be qualitatively predicted by the Nusselt number(heat transfer) and the optimum mass flow rate, wall tilt angle and inlet condition were considered.

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Cancer Metastasis Simulation with Agent-based Modeling (에이전트 기반 모델링을 이용한 암 전이 시뮬레이션)

  • Park, Chan-Ho;Won, Hong-Hee;Yoo, Si-Ho;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.61-65
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    • 2003
  • 암의 성장을 정확하게 예측할 수 있다면 암으로 고통 받는 많은 사람들에게 적절한 치료 및 처방을 내릴 수 있을 것이다. 그 동안 암의 성장을 예측하기 위하여 많은 연구가 진행되어왔는데 크게 나누어 하향식 설계 방법과 상향식 설계 방법이 있다. 하향식 방법은 전체적인 흐름을 파악하기는 쉽지만, 지역적 특성을 고려하기 어렵다는 단점이 있고, 상향식 방법은 지역적 특성은 고려하기 쉽지만, 전체적인 흐름을 파악하기 어려운 단점이 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 가지 방법을 혼합한 방법을 사용하여 지역적으로는 불규칙적인 암의 성장 모습과 암이 다른 조직으로 전이되는 모습을 동시에 관찰 할 수 있게 하였다. 아울러 시뮬레이션된 암의 모형이 실제 임상학적인 모습과 유사하다는 것을 발견하였다.

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Modeling Urban Growth Based on Allometry and Raster GIS (상대생장과 래스터 GIS를 이용한 도시성장모델)

  • 정재준
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.436-439
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    • 2003
  • Urbanization is worldwide phenomenon and unexceptional in Korea. It is necessary in the spatial decision making steps to predict urban forms for the efficient land use. This study aims to develop urban growth model based on allometry which deals with relationships between urban populations and urban area. For the input data and accuracy assessments, various GIS techniques are used. Although this research is an exemplary urban growth model dealing with physical data only, it can be a good start to develop a more practical model having socio-economic sides for planning practices.

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System Dynamics기법을 이용한 On-line 자동차 보험의 성장 예측

  • Myeong, Seong-Su;Park, Myeong-Seop
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.196-200
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    • 2006
  • 인터넷의 보급으로 인해 Tele Marketing과 Direct Marketing을 주로 하던 보험업의 시장 환경은 on-line판매라는 새로운 판매 채널을 크게 변하였다. 보험업의 경우 인터넷의 도입으로 인해 보험소비자는 가격 및 상품 정보를 보다 쉽게 획득할 수 있고, 비교 견적을 통하여 자신에게 보다 합리적인 의사결정을 할 수 있다. On-line 환경의 급진전에 따른 자동차 보험시장에서 후발주자에 해당하는 on-line 자동차 보험 회사의 급격한 고객 확대는 주목할 변화이다. 따라서 off-line 보험시장을 대체할 수 있는 on-line 보험의 성장 가능성 예측이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 on-line 자동차 보험사에 대한 분석과 통계자료를 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용하여 on-line 자동차 보험의 성장에 대해 분석 해 보았다.

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A Fracture Mechanics Analysis on Fatigue Life Estimation of DEN Plate (DEN판재의 피로수명 평가에 관한 파괴역학적 연구)

  • Lim Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.163-169
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    • 2000
  • This paper mainly deals with fatigue lift estimation and prediction in notched structures. The fatigue crack initiation life and the fatigue crack growth behavior in the DEN specimens were predicted using S.I.F. K solution derived in this study and the Paris' crack growth equation. Predicted results showed good agreement with experimental crack growth behaviors under constant-load-amplitude.

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A Study of Prediction on Company's Growth with R and Analysis Algoritnm (R과 분석 알고리즘을 활용한 기업의 성장성 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hui-Seok;Kim, Kyung-Su;Ryu, Ji-Seung;Lee, Ga-Yeon;Lee, Min-Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.428-431
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    • 2017
  • 기업의 성장성과 기업 주식가치를 매출, 매출원가, 영업이익율 등의 정형데이터와 경제, 경영관련 뉴스 등 비정형 데이터를 토대로 다양한 알고리즘을 활용해 분석하고, 그 결과의 유의성을 검증한다. 주성분회귀분석, 인공신경망, 나이브 베이지안 분류자, 긍/부정 사전분석 모델을 통해 분석된 결과를 검토하여 각 분석모델 별 성능을 확인하고, 기업 성장성 예측을 위해 활용 가능한 모델과 필요한 데이터를 제시한다.

Effect of GnRH analogue on predicted adult height in girls with early puberty (조기사춘기 여아에서 성선자극호르몬 방출호르몬 효능약제가 예측성인신장에 미치는 효과)

  • Ahn, Byung-Hoon;Han, Heon-Seok
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.552-557
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : The recent results observed in precocious puberty and the hope that interrupting puberty might increase adult height have led to an attempt to use GnRH agonist(GnRHa) in children with premature puberty and a poor growth prognosis. We aimed to analyze the growth promoting effect of GnRHa in girls with early puberty and low predicted adult height(PAH). Methods : Thirty six girls were recruited. They were grouped according to the GnRHa treatment period(group 1>6 mo, n=18; group 2<6 mo, n=18). The following variables were analyzed before and after GnRHa treatment : chronological age(CA), bone age(BA), ${\Delta}age$(CA-BA), height, target height (TH), PAH, serum IGF-1, IGFBP-3. Results : Duration of the GnRHa treatment was $0.89{\pm}0.81yr$($1.37{\pm}0.92yr$ in group 1, and $0.41{\pm}0.08yr$ in group 2). Before treatment, none of the variables were different between the two groups. There were no differences in the following variables the between two groups at the end of treatment : CA, BA, ${\Delta}age$, PAH, serum IGF-1, IGFBP-3. But, growth velocity(GV) and PAH increment during treatment were significantly reduced in group 1. Compared with initial PAH, PAH at the end of treatment was significantly increased($3.7{\pm}3.2cm$). The last serum levels of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 were lower than those before treatment. Conclusion : Even though last PAH didn't approach TH, short term GnRHa administration in early puberty with low predicted PAH was somewhat effective. But, GnRHa administration suppressed the growth hormone-IGF-1 axis. Therefore, it is recommended that growth hormone(GH) should be used in combination with GnRHa.

A Study on the Demand Forecasting for IMT-2000 Services (IMT-2000 서비스의 수요예측)

  • Im, Su Deok;Jo, Jung Jae;Hwang, Jin Su;Jo, Yong Hwan
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.12A
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    • pp.2025-2033
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we forecast launching time of the commercial IMT-2000 service as feb. 2001, according to expert’s opinion, and most of they forecast rapid evolution. And, we propose two different models according to two cases for competition power of price for IMT-2000 service subscriber demand forecasting. In this paper, we combine the expert’s opinion method with the growth curve model for demand forecasting for new products in order to reduce error of the demand forecasting that haven’t past references. The estimation of needed coefficients for each growth curve model is based on experts’ subjective opinions.

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A Study on Forecasting of Overseas Tour - Gravity Model and Regression Model (해외관광 수요예측 모형에 관한 연구 제목 - 중력모형과 회귀모형)

  • Choi, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2001
  • Now a day, overseas tour which is due to economic development grows very much. In this situation, a forecast of overseas tour is required to establish tourism policy for tourism marketing. In this paper, we compare regression model and gravity model for a forecast of overseas tour. Using gravity model, this study also suggests an attraction which is suitable to our situation, and suggested attraction is compared and analyzed with another.

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