• Title/Summary/Keyword: 성장예측

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Technology Trends in Predictive Manufacturing Systems (예측적 생산 시스템 기술개발 동향)

  • Park, J.H.;Kim, R.W.;Cho, H.S.;Han, J.H.;Chi, S.Y.
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2015
  • 최근, 미래 제조업의 성장 동력과 그에 대한 중요성이 화두가 되면서 제조업과 예측분석 기술의 융합을 통해 선제적 제조 활동 개선을 위한 의사결정을 지원하는 예측적 생산 시스템에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 예측적 생산 시스템은 데이터의 수집과 저장/관리, 예측적 분석을 위한 다양한 단계의 기술요소들로 구성된다. 본고에서는 각 단계를 위한 기술개발의 현황 및 적용 사례들에 관하여 살펴보고자 한다.

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A Study on forecasting the long-run path of the Korean bioindustry based on the experiences of the U.S. BT and the Korean ICT industries (미국 BT와 한국 ICT 산업 연구를 통한 한국 바이오산업 장기전망에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Sunung;Kim, Minseong;Jeon, Yongil
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.331-359
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    • 2009
  • We forecast the performance of the Korean biotechnology industry by adopting similar development paths taken by the U.S. biotechnology and Korean ICT industries. Our long-term forecasting techniques predict that Korean BT market size will increase from 3.7 billion to 10.8 billion U.S. dollars by year 2030. The pharmaceutical industry, one of major bio-subindustries, is expected to dominate Korean BT market in the long-run. Also, the relative portion of the exports in the Korean BT industry will be larger and thus the export-oriented government policy is required for the long-run growth of the Korean BT industry. Since the Korean ICT industry has already slowed down in the development, Korean BT industry is likely to catch up with ICT industry in the near future.

A Study on Growth Pattern in a New Synthetic Korean Native Commercial Chicken by Sex and Strains (신품종 토종닭의 계통과 성별에 따른 성장 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kigon, Kim;Eun Sik, Choi;See Hwan, Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.229-237
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    • 2022
  • This study investigated the growth characteristics of four strains of newly developed synthetic Korean native commercial chickens (KNCs). We investigated a suitable growth curve model in KNCs and estimated the number of days to reach a 2 kg market weight. Body weight was measured at 2-week intervals from birth to 12 weeks of age. The growth curves were estimated using von Berteralanffy, Gompertz, and logistic functions. The results showed that males were significantly heavier than females at all ages, but there were no significant differences in body weight between strains, except at birth and 2 and 6 weeks of age. The coefficients of determination and adjusted determination of growth function had high goodness-of-fit (97.4~99.7). Of the growth curve parameters, the mature weight and growth ratio were higher in males than in females, but the maturity rate was similar in males and females. The inflection point occurred at approximately 7 weeks of age for females and 8 to 9 weeks of age for males. The weights estimated from the growth curve functions almost agreed with the actual weights, except for male weights estimated using the von Bertalanffy function. The coefficients of determination of the regression equations for weight to age were 0.9583 to 0.9746. The 8- and 10-week-old body weights estimated using the regression equation, and the 12-week-old weight estimated using the logistic function were most similar to the actual weight. Using these models, the estimated age of KNCs to reach 2 kg was 62.0~64.6 days for males and 74.9~78.6 days for females.

특집 / 2003년 디지털 콘텐츠 시장 진화·융합의 시대 열린다

  • Im, Dong-Geun
    • Digital Contents
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    • no.1 s.116
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2003
  • 지난 몇년간 우리의 온라인 게임은 괄목할 만한 성장을 거듭했으며, 이제 양적인 면에서 국내시장에는 고점에 와있다고 본다. 하지만 PC성능의 향성, 플랫폼의 다양화, 초고속통신망의 확대, 2D에서 3D로의 발전, 다양한 게임 장르의 구현 등으로 질적인 면에서의 성장은 앞으로도 고도의 성장을 구가할 수 있다고 본다. 특히 해외시정의 경우 인프라 구축과 더불어 급성장세를 유지하리라 예측된다. 향후 1~2년 안에 200억 달러가 넘을 세계 게임시장에서 온라인 게임이 차지하는 비중은 점점 늘어가는 추세이며 앞으로 5년안에는 모바일, 콘솔온라인, MMORPG 등의 네트워크 관련 게임이 전체시장의 50%에 이를 전망이다. 이는 현재 온라인 게임이 차지하고 있는 세계시장 점유율과 매출 총액에 대비한다면 이들이 성장의 주축을 이루리라고 판단하기에 어렵지 않다.

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MOCVD 반응기의 온도분포가 필름 성장율에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구

  • 김병호;임익태;김광선
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society Of Semiconductor Equipment Technology
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 MOCVD 반응기의 온도분포가 필름 성장률에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 온도해석에는 반응기 벽면의 전도열전달과 기체의 대류열전달이 포함되었다. 또 서셉터와 실험에 사용된 그래파이트 평판 사이의 웨이퍼 미세 간극을 해석에 포함하여 반응기 내부의 온도를 예측하였다. 정밀한 온도해석을 통해 얻은 반응기의 온도 분포를 이용하여 GaAs와 InP의 필름성장률을 해석하였으며 그 결과 미세 틈새가 GaAs의 필름 성장률에 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다.

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Growth promoting effect of combined gonadotropin releasing hormone analogue and growth hormone therapy in early pubertal girls with predicted low adult heights (예측성인신장이 작은 조기사춘기 여아에서 성선자극호르몬 방출호르몬 효능약제와 성장호르몬 병합치료의 성장획득 효과)

  • Hong, Eun-Jeong;Han, Heon-Seok
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.678-685
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : Recent reports pointed out that gonadotropin releasing hormone analogue (GnRHa) therapy alone is not so promising for improving adult height in precocious puberty. So, that we studied the growth promoting effect of combined therapy with GnRHa and growth hormone (GH) in early pubertal girls. Methods : Twenty three early pubertal girls ($9.73{\pm}1.59yr$) with predicted adult heights (PAH) below-2 standard deviation score (SDS) were included. They were divided into two groups as follows; Group I before menarche (n=19) and Group II after menarche (n=4). After combined therapy, various growth parameters were compared between two groups and between the before and after therapy. Results : Between the two groups before therapy, chronologic age (CA), growth velocity (GV), body mass index (BMI), target height (TH), PAH and serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 were not different, but BA, height and difference between bone age (BA) and CA were significantly higher and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) was marginally higher in group II. After therapy, BA still remained higher in group II, but other parameters were not different. In both groups, after therapy, the difference between BA and CA, the ratio of BA over CA, and GV were significantly decreased, but PAH, height SDS and BMI were significantly increased. Regarding IGF-1 level, a significant increase was noted in group I, but not in group II. Conclusion : With combined therapy of GnRHa and GH, PAH in early pubertal girls might be improved significantly and even approach TH. Among them, those who were before menarche might have greater potential for the height gain than those after menarche in view of IGF-1 changes during therapy.

The Comparative Evaluations of Telecommunications Service Forecasting Models for Forecating Performance (통신서비스산업 예측모형 예측력 비교 분석)

  • Jo, S.S.;Jeong, D.J.
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.17 no.3 s.75
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구는 현재 통신서비스 산업에서 가장 많이 사용하고 있는 5개 예측모형(단순 성장 모형, 단순 Logistic 모형, Gompertz 모형, 확장 Bass 모형, 시간 변동 Bass 모형)을 이용한 초고속 인터넷 가입자에 대한 예측력을 비교 평가하는 데 있다. 예측모형의 추정 방법으로 비선형 회귀방정식(nonlinear regression)을 사용하여 추정의 효율성을 높였다. 예측력 비교분석 기준은 (i) 포화점에 대한 타당성 (ii) 모수에 대한 통계적 유의성 (iii) 실제치 대비 예측치에 대한 AAD 기준을 통하여 예측모형의 예측력을 비교 평가하였다. 본 연구에서 실시한 방법론에 따라 다섯 가지 통신서비스 예측모형의 예측력을 분석한 결과 가장 작은 AAD를 나타낸 예측모형은 Log-Logistic 모형으로 나타났으며, 가장 큰 AAD를 나타낸 예측모형은 단순 Logistic 모형으로 나타났다. 또한 AAD 기준에서 보면 일반적으로 많이 사용하고 있는 Gompertz 예측모형과 Bass 모형 중에서는 Gompertz 예측모형이 더 우월한 것으로 나타났다.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Esherichia coli O157:H7 Growth in Paprika (파프리카에서 병원성 대장균의 성장예측 모델 개발 및 검증)

  • Yun, Hyejeong;Kim, Juhui;Park, Kyeonghun;Ryu, Kyoung-Yul;Kim, Byung Seok
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.168-173
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    • 2013
  • This study was carried out to develop and validate predictive models of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Growth data of E. coli O157:H7 in Paprika were collected at 12, 24, 30 and $36^{\circ}C$. The population increased into 3.0 to 3.8 log10 CFU/g within 4 days, then continued to increase at a slower rate through 10 days of storage at $12^{\circ}C$. The lag time (LT) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) obtained from each primary model was then modeled as a function of temperature using Davey and square root equations, respectively. For interpolation of performance evaluation, growth data for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7 were collected at time intervals in paprika incubated at the different temperatures, which was not used in model development. Results of model performance for interpolation data demonstrated that induced secondary models showed acceptable goodness of fit. Relative errors in the LT and SGR model for interpolation data (18 and $27^{\circ}C$) was 100%, which show acceptable goodness of fit and validated for interpolation. The primary and secondary models developed in this study can be used to establish tertiary models to quantify the effects of temperature on the growth of E. coli O157:H7 in paprika.

A study on stock price prediction through analysis of sales growth performance and macro-indicators using artificial intelligence (인공지능을 이용하여 매출성장성과 거시지표 분석을 통한 주가 예측 연구)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2021
  • Since the stock price is a measure of the future value of the company, when analyzing the stock price, the company's growth potential, such as sales and profits, is considered and invested in stocks. In order to set the criteria for selecting stocks, institutional investors look at current industry trends and macroeconomic indicators, first select relevant fields that can grow, then select related companies, analyze them, set a target price, then buy, and sell when the target price is reached. Stock trading is carried out in the same way. However, general individual investors do not have any knowledge of investment, and invest in items recommended by experts or acquaintances without analysis of financial statements or growth potential of the company, which is lower in terms of return than institutional investors and foreign investors. Therefore, in this study, we propose a research method to select undervalued stocks by analyzing ROE, an indicator that considers the growth potential of a company, such as sales and profits, and predict the stock price flow of the selected stock through deep learning algorithms. This study is conducted to help with investment.

Prediction of the Electric Vehicles Supply and Electricity Demand Using Growth Models (성장모형을 활용한 전기자동차 보급과 전력수요 예측)

  • Hyo Seung Han;Ilsoo Yun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2023
  • European and American countries are actively promoting eco-friendly cars to reduce exhaust emissions from internal combustion engines. In Korea, the "4th Basic Plan for Eco-Friendly Vehicles" aims to promote eco-friendly cars by improving charging infrastructure, expanding incentive systems, and targeting the supply of 1.13 million eco-friendly cars by 2025. As rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles sold is expected, estimates are required of this growth and corresponding power demands. In this study, the authors used a growth model to predict future growth in the electric vehicle market and a previously derived electricity generation model to estimate corresponding power demands up to 2036, the target year of the "10th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand". The results obtained provide useful basic research data for future electric vehicle infrastructure planning.