Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety (한국식품위생안전성학회지)

The Korean Society of Food Hygiene and Safety (한국식품위생안전성학회)
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Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Esherichia coli O157:H7 Growth in Paprika

파프리카에서 병원성 대장균의 성장예측 모델 개발 및 검증

  • Yun, Hyejeong (Microbial Safety Team, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Kim, Juhui (Microbial Safety Team, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Park, Kyeonghun (Microbial Safety Team, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Ryu, Kyoung-Yul (Microbial Safety Team, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Kim, Byung Seok (Microbial Safety Team, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA)
  • 윤혜정 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 유해생물팀) ;
  • 김주희 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 유해생물팀) ;
  • 박경훈 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 유해생물팀) ;
  • 류경열 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 유해생물팀) ;
  • 김병석 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 유해생물팀)
  • Received : 2012.05.22
  • Accepted : 2013.05.27
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

This study was carried out to develop and validate predictive models of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Growth data of E. coli O157:H7 in Paprika were collected at 12, 24, 30 and $36^{\circ}C$. The population increased into 3.0 to 3.8 log10 CFU/g within 4 days, then continued to increase at a slower rate through 10 days of storage at $12^{\circ}C$. The lag time (LT) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) obtained from each primary model was then modeled as a function of temperature using Davey and square root equations, respectively. For interpolation of performance evaluation, growth data for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7 were collected at time intervals in paprika incubated at the different temperatures, which was not used in model development. Results of model performance for interpolation data demonstrated that induced secondary models showed acceptable goodness of fit. Relative errors in the LT and SGR model for interpolation data (18 and $27^{\circ}C$) was 100%, which show acceptable goodness of fit and validated for interpolation. The primary and secondary models developed in this study can be used to establish tertiary models to quantify the effects of temperature on the growth of E. coli O157:H7 in paprika.

본 연구는 신선편이 식품에서 오염 가능성이 있는 병원성 식중독 균 E. coli O157:H7에 대해 파프리카에서 성장 예측 모델을 적용하고, 본 연구에서 개발된 성장 예측 모델을 내부 검증하였다. 이를 비교하여 신선편이 식품을 안전하게 관리하기 위한 적절한 모델을 제시하고자 하였다. 파프리카에 E. coli O157:H7접종하여 온도에 따라 12, 24, 30, $36^{\circ}C$에 보관하여 성장을 측정하였다. Gompertz 식을 이용하여 온도에 따른 성장곡선을 그리고 LT와 SGR을 산출하였다. 산출된 LT와 SGR은 각각 Davey model와 squareroot model를 이용하여 2차 모델을 개발하였다. 개발된 2차 모델에 대하여 LT와 SGR model의 $R^2$값은 각각 0.999, 0.994로 1에 근접하는 높은 적합성을 보였다. 또한 내부 검정 결과 LT와 SGR model의 Bf 값은 각각 1.01, 0.89, LT model은 안전하게 SGR model 위험하게 예측되었다. 파프리카의 LT와 SGR의 상대적인 오차 값은 모두 허용 가능한 오차 범위에 포함 되었다. 따라서 개발된 모델을 이용하여 온도에 따른 E. coli O157:H7성장을 추정할 수 있으며, 이를 위해평가 자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

Keywords

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