• Title/Summary/Keyword: 성장곡선모형

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The Longitudinal Study on Academic Achievement of Mathematic and Scientific Subject (수학·과학 학업성취도 결정요인 종단연구)

  • Lee, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzes the factors influencing academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject and its change in Korean youth by using a sample from KYPS(Korea Youth Panel Survey) data. The results are as follows: First, academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of Korean youth shows quadratic curve that their interrelationship between intercept and slope of academic achievement are negative which is statistically significant. Second, analysis of Latent Growth Models shows that parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks are found to be a statistically significant factor on mathematic. And scientific subject is affected by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. Also, Interesting finding is that father's job is not significant to dependent variables. These findings show that academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of the Korean youth are the quadratic curve and influenced by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. To improve youth's mathematic and scientific, Korea educational fields and educators should have policy to care youth's relationship with parents, teachers and self esteem.

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Estimation of Growth Curve Parameters for Body Weight and Measurements in Castrated Hanwoo (Bostaurus Coreanae) (한우 거세우의 체중 및 체형에 대한 성장곡선 모수 추정)

  • Choi, Te-Jeong;Seo, Kang-Seok;Kim, Si-Dong;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Jae-Gwan;Hwang, In-Ho;Choi, Ho-Sung;Park, Chul-Jin
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.601-612
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to figure out how the shape of Hanwoo changes over time, examine the rank correlations between the carcass traits which are the selection traits and parameters of growth curve, and determine the correlation between body shape and carcass. Body weight, body measurements and carcass traits were measured from 161 castrated Hanwoo, and 12 growth traits and 5 carcass traits were investigated in total. The logistic model(Nelder, 1961) used for the estimation of growth curve parameters and growth characteristics at inflection point were calculated by these growth curve parameters. The value of this parameter was greatest for pinbone width, which suggests that it is an early ripening trait, while it was lowest for chest girth, suggesting it to be a late ripening trait. The rank correlations of chest depth, chest width, and hip width with backfat thickness steadily increased from 6 to 24 months, while the rank correlations of other traits decreased after 18 months until 24 months of age. Only phenotypic records were analyzed in this study, but for examine the genetic changes over growth phase in Hanwoo, if another additional genetic analysis like as estimation of genetic parameters should achieve, body measurements may be useful traits in proven bull selection.

Development of A Model for Estimating ITS Market Size in Korea (지능형교통체계(ITS)의 시장예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 배상훈
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2001
  • Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) was first introduced in Korea early 1990's, and Korean government has put a lot of efforts for flourishing it in the entire nation. Regardless of these efforts, private participation is not active enough to accelerate ITS implementation in Korea. Expert group made every endeavor to analyze the current situation, and found out some phenomena. It may be summarized as two folds. Firstly, private sector has a lack of confidence on the future ITS market. Budget in the strategic plan is the only publication and guide that private sector can refer to, and it merely indicates deployment costs. Secondly, direction and procedure of R&D are not well defined. It implies that private sector takes too much risk when they invest for R&D. This research, therefore, focuses on the first issues. Concretely, the goal of the project was to establish and analyze the model for estimation the future ITS market side. Author reviewed both quantitative and qualitative models, and concluded that diffusion model in qualitative model was suitable for ITS market estimation. According to model calibration. it is estimated that 14 trillion Won was the market size in 2020 under normal condition. Impact of this result may seduce Information Technology(IT) related private companies into ITS market. Although this research couldn't cover various topics, it nay dedicate in boosting ITS in Korea. Also, it will be a good starting point for further study for the advancement of ITS.

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An Evaluation of Fish Habitat Conditions due to the Construction of Youngchun Dam in the Gumbo River (영천댐 건설이 금호강의 어류 서식환경에 미치는 영향에 관한 평가)

  • Park, Bong-Jin;Sung, Young-Du;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.9 s.158
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    • pp.771-778
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    • 2005
  • In this study, flow duration analysis was conducted at the Gumbo stage gauging station due to construction of the Youngchun dam. The flow duration characteristics were $10.49\;m^3/s$ of drought flow, $13.30\;m^3/s$. of low flow, $15.65\;m^3/s$ of normal flow, and $25.00\;m^3/s$ abundant flow before construction of Youngchun dam. But after construction of Youngchun dam, the flow duration characteristics were $2.07\;m^^3/s,\;2.89\;m^3/s,\;4.0\;m^3/s,\;9.36\;m^3/s$ and they had been deteriorated. Applying the Physical Habitat Simulation Model by Instream Flow Incremental Methodology, the Weighted Usable Area(WUA)-Discharge Curve was developed for Zacco Platypus according to the growth stages. Using the WUA-Discharge Curve, the WUA Duration Curve was developed with exceedance probability of daily flow and evaluated fish habitat conditions due to the construction of Youngchun dam. As an evaluation result, the WUA was reduced and fish habitat environment was deteriorated due to the construction of Youngchun dam during the spawning and growth period of Zacco Platypus. However the exceedence probability of the $90\;\%$, irrigation water supply from the Youngchun dam improved flow duration characteristics and Weighted Usable Area as well as fish habitat.

Forecasting of Car Distribution Considering the Population Aging (인구 고령화를 고려한 승용차 보급예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyunwoo;Lee, Du-Heon;Yang, Junseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2014
  • It has been a long time since cars had become important means of transportation in human life. Since 1970s, cars have been increasing steadily because of rising individual income and changing lifestyle toward leisure and convenience. The number of cars is just 1.8 per thousand populations in 1970s, however, in 2012, it has increased to 291.15. Forecasting the demand for cars would be useful to plan, construction or management in the field of motor industry, road building and establishing facilities. Our study predicts the demand of cars through estimating the growth curve model. Especially, we include ageing variables to forecasting identifying the effect of ageing on the demand of cars. The main findings are as follows. In 2045, the number of cars is expected to reach 486.8 per thousand populations with passing a primary saturation point at early 2020s. Also, due to effect of ageing, the predicted demand of cars is about 10% lower than in case of which if ageing effect not exist.

Development of a Numerical Model for the Rapidly Increasing Heat Release Rate Period During Fires (Logistic function Curve, Inversed Logistic Function Curve) (화재시 열방출 급상승 구간의 수치모형 개발에 관한 연구 (로지스틱 함수 및 역함수 곡선))

  • Kim, Jong-Hee;Song, Jun-Ho;Kim, Gun-Woo;Kweon, Oh-Sang;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a new function with higher accuracy for fire heat release rate prediction was developed. The 'αt2' curve, which is the major exponential function currently used for fire engineering calculations, must be improved to minimize the prediction gap that causes fire system engineering inefficiency and lower cost-effectiveness. The newly developed prediction function was designed to cover the initial fire stage that features rapid growth based on logistic function theory, which has a more logical background and graphical similarity compared to conventional exponential function methods for 'αt2'. The new function developed in this study showed apparently higher prediction accuracy over wider range of fire growth durations. With the progress of fire growth pattern studies, the results presented herein will contribute towards more effective fire protection engineering.

The Assessment of Various Index Flood Models for Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis (비정상성 지역빈도해석을 위한 홍수지수법의 형태에 따른 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Sunghun;Joo, Kyungwon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.80-80
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    • 2017
  • 최근 수문자료에 비정상성이 관측됨에 따라 비정상성 지역빈도해석에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 홍수지수법 (index flood method)은 지역빈도해석에서 가장 널리 사용되는 방법으로 각 지점의 특성을 반영하는 홍수지수 (index flood)와 지역적 특성을 대표하는 성장곡선 (growth curve)을 통해 확률수문량을 산정하며, 비정상성 지역빈도해석의 경우 홍수지수법 내의 요소들을 시간에 대한 함수로 정의함으로써 비정상성을 반영한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 형태의 비정상성 홍수지수법을 통해 비정상성 지역빈도해석을 수행하고 각 방법에 따른 성능을 비교하였다. 이를 위해 경향성을 가지는 매개변수를 포함하는 비정상성 분포형을 모분포로 가지는 자료를 생성하였으며, 이를 기반으로 다양한 경향성을 가지는 자료들로 지역을 구성하였다. 구성된 지역에 대해 동질성 검토를 수행하여 비정상성 자료들이 포함된 지역의 동질성을 확인하였으며, Monte Carlo 모의실험을 통해 각 비정상성 홍수지수모형에 대한 확률수문량의 RRMSE와 RBIAS를 산정하여 성능을 평가하였다.

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Assessment of Variables for Quantile Estimation in Regional Frequency Analysis (지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 대한 지역구분인자의 영향성 평가)

  • Jung, Tae-Ho;Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Sunghun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.428-428
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    • 2018
  • 지역빈도해석은 대상 지점의 관측자료만을 사용하는 지점빈도해석과 달리 지역구분을 통해 정의된 동질지역 내에 포함된 모든 지점의 자료를 사용하여 보다 정확하고 신뢰할 수 있는 확률수문량을 산정할 수 있는 방법이다. 지역빈도해석의 절차는 크게 지역구분인자를 이용한 동질지역구분과 홍수지수모형의 적용을 통한 확률강우량 산정으로 나눌 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역구분에 사용되는 지역구분인자가 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위하여 지역구분인자와 확률강우량 산정결과와의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 먼저, 동질지역 구분을 위해 지형적 특성과 수문학적 특성을 나타내는 지역구분인자를 선정하였으며, 군집분석을 통해 동질지역 구분을 수행하였다. 구분된 동질지역에 대해 지역성장곡선을 추정하고 홍수지수모형을 통해 지점별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 지역빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량의 지점빈도해석 대비 증감률과 동질지역구분에 사용된 지역구분인자와의 상관성분석을 통해 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 영향을 주는 지역구분인자를 확인하였다.

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Site Index and Height Growth Curve of Larix leptolepis and Pinus koraiensis (낙엽송과 잣나무림(林)의 수고성장곡선(樹高成長曲線) 및 지위지수(地位指數)에 관(關)한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyun Seo;Chung, Young Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.68 no.1
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 1985
  • Height growth curve to be required for estimating site index was formulated with 10 models based on the average tree height and tree age. Among them, the model of $H=K-ab^A$ was evaluated to be best fit for estimating average tree height(H) with tree age (A). Equations, $H=28.364-26.125(0.818)^A$ and $H=26.331-25.125(0.886)^A$, were situated from the model for estimating average tree height of Larix leptolepis and Pinus koraiensis, respectively (in this case the tree age was categorized into 0 for 5 -year- old tree, 1 for 10 -year- old tree and 2 for 15 -year- old tree ect.). Result of comparing the site indices calculated by the Bryant method, it was proved that the site index of Larix leptolepis was estimated higher than that of Pinus koraiensis within the limits of site index class 6 to 18. On the contrary the site index of Pinus koraiensis turned out to surpass that of Larix leptolepis at the site index class 20 or over.

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Development of Survivor Models Using Technological Growth Models (기술성장곡선을 활용한 생존모형 개발)

  • Oh, Hyun-Seung;Cho, Jin-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2010
  • Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.