• 제목/요약/키워드: 선행지표

Search Result 653, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Modeling by Weighted Average Defuzzification Based on NEWFM (NEWFM 기반 가중평균 역퍼지화에 의한 비선형 시계열 예측 모델링)

  • Chai, Soo-Han;Lim, Joon-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.563-568
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper presents a methodology for predicting nonlinear time series based on the neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The degree of classification intensity is obtained by bounded sum of weighted fuzzy membership functions extracted by NEWFM, then weighted average defuzzification is used for predicting nonlinear time series. The experimental results demonstrate that NEWFM has the classification capability of 92.22% against the target class of GDP. The time series created by NEWFM model has a relatively close approximation to the GDP which is a typical business cycle indicator, and has been proved to be a useful indicator which has the turning point forecasting capability of average 12 months in the peak point and average 6 months in the trough point during 5th to 8th cyclical period. In addition, NEWFM measures the efficiency of the economic indexes by the feature selection and enables the users to forecast with reduced numbers of 7 among 10 leading indexes while improving the classification rate from 90% to 92.22%.

Development of Evaluation Indicators for Level of Service on Academic Library Users with Disabilities (대학도서관의 장애인 서비스 수준 측정을 위한 평가지표 개발)

  • Park, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.71-92
    • /
    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the service factors of university libraries which aim to improve the educational welfare of the disabled, and to develop an evaluation indicator to evaluate these vital service factors. To proceed with this study, guidelines of public library services for people with disabilities, and previous research and job description of academy library analysed and developed indicators suited for evaluating academic library services for people with disabilities. A pilot survey and main survey about the evaluation factors and indicators conducted with librarians who work for university libraries, and the questions were refined by exploratory factor analysis of the data collected from the survey. As a result, through the process of identifying reliability and validity, it turned out that the evaluation factor and subordinate index of university library services for the disabled consisted of 8 factors and 33 indicators.

A Study on the Development of User Experience Indicators for The Knowledge and Information Resource System (지식정보자원시스템 이용자 경험 지표개발에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Jung Hyun;Lee, Jee Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.54 no.3
    • /
    • pp.209-236
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study describes a set of user experience indicators developed for the evaluation of knowledge and information resource systems. The user experience perspectives had emerged as a new analysis standard in the field of information media and information service research. The study included a survey conducted to verify the derived experience factors and developed them as indicators. The survey data was gathered from 158 participants in the preliminary and 480 participants in the main study. The applied analysis techniques were descriptive statistics, the exploratory factor analysis, the confirmatory factor analysis, the correlation analysis, and the path analysis. The results introduced seven user experience factors, 37 detailed user experience factors, and 105 system perception factors as the final user experience indicators. The developed and verified indicators should measure the degree of user experience perceived by users of the knowledge and information resource system and conduct effective evaluations that reflect correlation rather than a simple comparison of each experience factor.

A Study on the Establishment of Educational Environment Improvement Indicators (교육환경 개선 지표 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Choi, Hyeong-ju
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.35-45
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the types of present situation data related to school facilities through existing literature and related systems and to develop indicators related to improvement of educational environment that can have an important influence on students' education and life in general. In this study, we conducted a second Delphy Survey to establish the educational environment improvement index. As a result, a total of 88 education environment improvement indicators were set, including 43 indicators on the quantitative aspects of the area, adequacy of general classrooms, and appropriateness of multi-purpose steel sugar, 34 indicators on the qualitative aspects such as the level of seismic performance, age of fire facilities, aging of toilets, and aging of finishing materials, and 11 indicators on operational aspects such as energy usage and user satisfaction.

A Study on the Establishment of Aviation Safety Leading Indicators (항공분야 예방안전지표 표준분류체계 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Jun-hwan Kim;Hyun-jin Paek;Jong-won, Lee;Joo-hyun Ahn
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.456-465
    • /
    • 2021
  • For predictive aviation safety management, the establishment of safety performance indicators to measure and manage the safety performance of service providers must be preceded. In particular, leading indicators are significant in that they play an important role in identifying and managing the causes of accident/incident in advance. However, the current safety performance indicators of the domestic aviation industry have limitations in that they focus on lagging indicators based on events that have already occurred. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct Korean leading indicators for preventive safety management. In addition, we verify the validity and importance of the indicators based on review of the experts and AHP analysis. This study is meaningful in that it can support the proactive safety management of the domestic aviation industry through the development of leading safety indicators, which have been relatively lacking in research.

Delphi Analysis for Experts to Develop an Assessment Index for Women's Entrepreneurship Support Programs (여성창업 지원사업 평가지표 개발을 위한 전문가 대상 델파이 분석)

  • Kim Heung-Hee;Kim Yun-Hwan;Kim Moon-Sook;Ju Young-Mi;Kim Dae-Geun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.337-344
    • /
    • 2024
  • This paper is a study on the "Development of Assessment Index for Women's Entrepreneurship support programs." This research highlights the absence of specific assessment indicators for selecting women-led enterprises in women's entrepreneurship support programs, thereby illuminating the limitations of current evaluation methods. It emphasizes the necessity for effective indicators to more successfully select women entrepreneurs and enterprises. The study derives numerous success factors for women's entrepreneurial ventures from prior research and develops a more likely to succeed assessment index for women-led enterprises using the Delphi methodology and collaboration with expert panels. The result is a new assessment index reflecting the characteristics of women entrepreneurs, expected to overcome the limitations of existing selection methods and contribute to enhancing social support and policy development for women-led enterprises.

Establishment and Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Flood Forecasting Model by Linking Takagi-Sugeno Inference with Neural Network (II) : Application and Verification (Takagi-Sugeno 추론기법과 신경망을 연계한 뉴로-퍼지 홍수예측 모형의 구축 및 적용 (II) : 실제 유역에 대한 적용 및 검증)

  • Choi, Seung-Yong;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.44 no.7
    • /
    • pp.537-551
    • /
    • 2011
  • Based on optimal input data combination selected in the earlier study, Neuro-Fuzzy flood forecasting model linked Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference theory with neural network in Wangsukcheon and Gabcheon is established. The established model was applied to Wangsukcheon and Gabcheon and water levels for lead time of 0.5 hr, 1 hr, 1.5 hr, 2.0 hr, 2.5 hr, 3.0 hr are forecasted. For the verification of the model, the comparisons between forecasting floods and observation data are presented. The forecasted results have shown good agreements with observed data. Additionally to evaluate quantitatively for applicability of the model, various statistical errors such as Root Mean Square Error are calculated. As a result of the flood forecasting can be simulated successfully without large errors in all statistical error. This study can greatly contribute to the construction of a high accuracy flood information system that secure lead time in medium and small streams.

The deformation behavior of soil tunnels reinforced with RPUM and fiberglass pipes (RPUM과 유리섬유 파이프로 막장을 보강한 토사터널의 변형거동)

  • Nam, Gi-Chun;Heo, Young;Kim, Chi-Whan;You, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.4 no.3
    • /
    • pp.185-193
    • /
    • 2002
  • In this paper, deformation behavior of shallow subway tunnel excavated in weathered soil and reinforcement effects of longitudinal support measures are investigated via three dimensional FDM analysis. Two excavation methods, half-face excavation and full-face excavation, are considered in simulation to study the influences of excavation methods on tunnel deformation behavior. In addition, the reinforcing effects of RPUM and fiberglass pipe are compared. Face extrusion, covergence, preconvergence, and sidewall displacement are investigated to analyze tunnel deformation behavior, and surface settlement is used to analyze the effects of excavation methods and longitudinal supports measures. The simulation results show that half-face excavation induces larger convergence, preconvergence, sidewall displacement, surface settlement than full-face excavation, while full-face excavation induces larger extrusion than half-face excavation. In addition, under same excavation method, all displacements are larger when RPUM is only used for longitudinal support than when RPUM is jointly used with fiberglass pipes.

  • PDF

On vertical profiles of cohesive sediment: concentration, velocity gradient, and Stokes number (가는 유사 부유의 연직구조 특성 : 농도, 속도경사, 스토크스 수)

  • Son, Minwoo;Byun, Jisun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.391-391
    • /
    • 2016
  • 유수동역학적인 요소와 유사의 부유는 서로 상호작용을 주고받으며 다양한 현상을 만들어낸다. 많은 선행연구를 통해 유사 농도 등의 특성이 난류 구조 등의 변화를 야기하며, 변화한 난류 구조 역시 유사의 부유 등에 2차적인 영향을 준다는 점이 확인되었다. 본 연구에서는 가는 유사에 보다 집중하여 유사 부유와 이에 따른 연직구조 특성의 변화를 살펴본다. 본 연구에서는 1차원 연직 모형을 이용하여 수치실험을 수행한다. 본 연구에 이용된 모형은 가는 유사의 특성인 빠른 입자 반응 시간(Particle Response Time)이 가정되는 모형으로 선행연구를 통해 적용성이 검증된 것으로 판단한다. 주요 분석대상은 유사의 농도와 속도경사 간의 관계 등이며, 분석하는 유사 농도 종류는 일반적인 비점착성 유사의 경우에 관심을 가지는 질량 농도에 집중하여 결정된다. 수치실험 수행을 위해서는 정류 흐름, 진동파 흐름 등이 적용되었고 다양한 경우의 가는 유사를 고려하기 위한 실험조건의 변경이 이루어졌다. 수치실험 결과 진동파의 다양한 위상에서 조금씩 달라지는 연직구조가 확인되었다. 이는 보정되는 Schmidt 수의 값과도 연관관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 가는 유사의 경우에도 입자의 크기에 따라 다른 연직구조의 특성이 모의되었으며 이를 통해 수치실험의 경우에도 입자 크기의 고려 하에 매개변수의 보정이 이루어져야 한다는 점을 알 수 있다. 스토크스 수는 입자 반응 시간과 유체 난류 시간규모(Fluid Turbulence Ttime Scale)의 비율을 의미한다. 본 연구를 통해 스토크스 수가 유사의 확산강도 결정과 큰 상관 관계를 가지는 것을 알 수 있다. 이때 유사의 크기와 보정되는 Schmidt 수의 값은 고정되었다. 수치 계산시에 확산계수의 값이 부유 및 이에 따른 연직구조의 특성을 결정하는 중요한 변수라는 점을 고려할 때, 가는 유사의 부유를 모의할 때에는 세심한 주의가 요구된다는 점을 이해할 수 있다. 선행 연구사례를 통해 볼 때 부유하는 입자의 관성력이 Schmidt 수의 결정과 이에 따른 연직 구조의 계산에 큰 영향을 준다는 점을 알 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 스토크스 수를 관성력을 나타낼 수 있는 지표로서 계산하였지만 보다 정량적이고 효율적인 입자 관성력 지표가 제시될 때 효율적인 연구결과의 제시가 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

  • PDF

The big data method for flash flood warning (돌발홍수 예보를 위한 빅데이터 분석방법)

  • Park, Dain;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.15 no.11
    • /
    • pp.245-250
    • /
    • 2017
  • Flash floods is defined as the flooding of intense rainfall over a relatively small area that flows through river and valley rapidly in short time with no advance warning. So that it can cause damage property and casuality. This study is to establish the flash-flood warning system using 38 accident data, reported from the National Disaster Information Center and Land Surface Model(TOPLATS) between 2009 and 2012. Three variables were used in the Land Surface Model: precipitation, soil moisture, and surface runoff. The three variables of 6 hours preceding flash flood were reduced to 3 factors through factor analysis. Decision tree, random forest, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and logistic regression model are considered as big data methods. The prediction performance was evaluated by comparison of Accuracy, Kappa, TP Rate, FP Rate and F-Measure. The best method was suggested based on reproducibility evaluation at the each points of flash flood occurrence and predicted count versus actual count using 4 years data.