• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.24 no.3 s.35
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• pp.363-372
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• 1991

We used the health screening data of some rural and urban residents to examine the cross-sectional association between leukocyte count and hypertension. The 206 male and 203 female rural residents were selected by multi-stage cluster sampling method in Kyungsan-Kun area of Kyungbuk province in 1985 and 600 urban residents were selected by the same sampling method as the rural residents in Daegu city of the same province in 1986 compatible with age-sex distribution of Daegu city of 1985 census, but of whom 384 actually responded. The rest of 600 were replaced by age and sex with those who were members of the medical insurance plan visiting the health management department of the university hospital to get the biannual preventive medical checkups. Excluded in the analysis were those having hypertensive history, diseases and extreme outlying values of the screening tests, leaving 373 rural and 571 urban residents. Leukocyte count was measured with ELT-8 Laser shadow method and the unit $cells/mm^3$, Blood pressures were determined with an aneroid sphygmomanometer with pre-standardized method and hypertensives were defined as those showing systolic blood pressure more than 140mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure more than 90mmHg. Total residents pooled (N=944) showed a significant difference between hypertensives and normotensives ($6965.93{\pm}1997.01\;vs\;6490.61{\pm}1941.32,\;P=0.00$) and in rural residents was noted the similar significant difference (P=0.03). None of significant differences were noted in any stratum stratified by residency and sex. Compared to the lowest quintile of WBC, 2/5 quintile showed odds ratio 0.99 (95% Confidence interval, Ci 0.62-1.59), 3/5 quintile 1.41 (95% CI 0.90-2.21), 4/5 quintile 1.76 (95% CI. 1.14-2.72), and highest quintile 1.80 (1.15-2.82) in the total residents. Likelihood ratio test for linear trend for it indicated a significant trend ($X^2_{trend}=5.53,\;df=1,\;P<0.05$). There were no other significant odds ratios compared to the lowest quintile of WBC in strata stratified by residency and sex. The odds ratios in total residents which had showed significant odds ratios became nonsignificant and of reduced magnitude after controlling age, frequency of smoking and drinking with multiple logistic. regression. In each stratum, it changed magnitudes of odds ratios slightly and unstably. None of the trend tests showed any significant trend. These results suggest that the Friedman et al's finding of association between leukocyte count and hypertension may be due to an statistical type I error resulting from the data dredging in an exploratory study, in which more than 800 variables were screened as possible predictors of hypertension.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.249-258
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• 2020

Many climate studies have used the general circulation models (GCMs) for climate change, which can be currently available more than sixty GCMs as part of the Assessment Report (AR5). There are several types of uncertainty in climate studies using GCMs. Various studies are currently being conducted to reduce the uncertainty associated with GCMs, and the bias correction method used to reduce the difference between the simulated and the observed rainfall. Therefore, this study mainly considered climate change scenarios from nine GCMs, and then quantile mapping methods were applied to correct biases in climate change scenarios for each station during the historical period (1970-2005). Moreover, the monthly rainfall for the future period (2011-2100) is obtained from the RCP 4.5 scenario. Based on the bias-corrected rainfall, the standard deviation and the inter-quartile range (IQR) from the first to third quartiles were estimated. For 2071-2100, the uncertainty for the selection of GCMs is larger than that for the selection of bias correction methods and vice versa for 2011-2040. Therefore, this study showed that the selection of GCMs and the bias correction methods can affect the result for the future climate projection.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1389-1400
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• 2013

This study developed an operating rule curve (ORC) for multipurpose water supply (irrigation and environmental water) in heightened agricultural reservoir. Among the 20 reservoirs in improvement project of agricultural reservoir dam heightening, the 4 representative reservoirs (Ungyang, Gungchon, Yongam and Unam) were selected for the study according to the analysis of statistical characteristics. Available environmental water supply amounts during irrigation and non-irrigation periods, which is the range from release restricted water level to high water level were estimated by water balance analysis using reservoir operation model. Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water system performance were used to assess the multiple water supply capacity. The ORC was presented as the percentile rank for the daily reservoir water level from the results of reservoir operation using the past couple of decades weather data. The water levels for each percentile were divided into 3 buffer sections representing drought (5~25%), normal (25~75%), and flood (75~95%) year to operate the heightened agricultural reservoir with ORC.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.601-601
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• 2015

비홍수기 하천유량관리는 정해진 기준 이상으로 유량을 유지하는 데 목적을 두며 유량관리를 위한 기준유량으로는 하천유지유량이나 하천관리유량이 주로 사용되고 있다. 이들 기준유량과 함께 최근에는 하천 유량 변화를 효과적으로 파악하고 유량변화에 따른 갈수상황을 객관적으로 판단하기 위한 의사결정 도구로 갈수지표가 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 주요 홍수예보지점의 하나인 진동지점을 대상으로 유량자료를 수집하고 갈수지표를 이용한 유량평가를 실시하였다. 다양한 갈수지표 중 특정기간을 대상으로 일정시간 가장 낮은 유량을 갈수지표로 활용하는 기법과 동일기간 유량자료의 저유량백분위 기준을 적용하여 이를 갈수임계값으로 활용하는 기법을 적용하였다. 전자는 7Q10(Singh, 1974)이 대표적이며 이는 10년 중 가장 낮은 값을 갖는 7일의 유량이 갈수의 기준이 된다. 본 연구에서는 7Q10의 기간을 20년으로 확대한 7Q20을 적용하였다. 후자는 WMO(2008)에서 적용된 바 있으며 본 연구에서는 1~12월의 월별 저유량90분위(Q90)를 갈수임계값으로 선정하였다. 신뢰할 수 있는 장기유량자료의 활용을 위해 "장기 수문자료 검증 및 평가연구"(한강홍수통제소, 2011)를 통해 수정, 보완된 진동지점의 과거 20년간(1994~2013) 유량자료를 활용하였으며 갈수지표와 함께 유량관리를 위한 기준유량으로 활용되는 하천유지유량(2006년 고시)과 하천관리유량(2013년 기준)의 유량만족도를 비교하였다. 과거 가뭄발생 및 제한급수시기, 강수량 등과 비교했을 때 월별 갈수임계값(Q90)을 갈수지표로 활용한 경우가 갈수관리에 효과적이라 판단되었다. 해당 기법은 통계학적 유의성을 갖기 위해서 장기수문자료의 활용이 필요하나 유량의 시계열 변동특성 반영이 가능하므로 우리나라와 같이 갈수기와 홍수기의 구분이 명확하고 하상계수가 큰 지역에서는 장점을 갖는 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.584-584
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• 2015

최근 기후변화로 인한 국지성 집중호우와 태풍 등으로 홍수피해가 급증하고 있음에 따라 침수지역에 대한 공간적인 분석과 사전 예측으로 피해를 최소화하려는 노력이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 소유역 별 평균화된 매개변수로 홍수량을 산정하는 집중형 모형이 아닌 분포형 모형을 적용하여 남강댐 유역의 유출량 산정 및 침수예측을 분석하였다. 분포형 모형은 격자체계를 기반으로 유역에 각 격자별 공간적 특성이 반영된 매개변수를 적용하므로 유역의 특성을 효과적으로 반영하므로 집중형 모형보다 정확한 해석이 가능하다. DEM, 토양도, 토지피복도 등의 격자크기 $240{\times}240$의 지형공간 자료를 ArcGIS를 이용하여 남강댐유역의 Flow direction, 경사도, 하도경사, 불투수율, 유효공극률, 조도계수, 토양심도, 수리전도도, 토양흡인수두 등의 수문매개변수를 추출하였다. 강우 자료의 경우 티센(Thiessen)법에 의해 선정된 남강댐유역 주변의 장수, 거창, 진주, 합천, 산청, 남원 강우관측소의 100년빈도 확률강우량 산정하여 24시간 확률강우를 3분위 Huff 분포시킨 후 강우의 공간적 통계특성을 반영하는 크리깅(Kriging)기법으로 적용하여 강우보간을 실시하였다. 침수예측을 위해 $Vflo^{TM}$모형을 이용해 48시간의 강우모의시간 홍수수문곡선 유도 및 홍수량 산정하였으며, 시간에 따른 침수 시뮬레이션하여 침수예측도를 작성하였다. 작성 시 침수심의 정도에 따라 5개의 구간으로 분류해 침수위험지역을 확인 할 수 있도록 도식화하였다. 본 연구에서는 남강댐유역의 침수위험지역을 개략적으로 예측할 수 있었으며, 추후 연구에서는 보다 조밀한 격자크기와 강우를 이용하여 분석한다면 향후 피난 정보 제공과 홍수재해지도 작성, 홍수방지 시설물 건설 또는 홍수보험계획 등에 응용이 될 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.174-191
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• 2020

In this study, we analyzed the vulnerable areas of non-point source pollutants and management pollutants and management time by subwatershed curves in the Seohwacheon basin located upstream of Daecheongho. First, in order to create a load duration curve, a long-term flow model SWAT was constructed to create a flow duration curve, and the result was multiplied by the target water quality to create a load duration curve. For the target water quality, monitoring data values measured from November 2017 were used for the management of nonpoint source pollutants in Seohwacheon, and a value corresponding to 60 percentile of the measured data was set as the target water quality. At this time, the target water quality was limited to"slightly good"(II) when the calculated value exceeded"slightly good"(II) of the river living environment standard. The vulnerable areas of non-point source of pollution were selected using the excess rate exceeding the target water quality, and the excess pollutant was judged as a management substance and the management time was selected through seasonal evaluation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.5 s.154
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• pp.391-399
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to evaluate hydrological impact by the land cover change of typhoon damage. For the typhoon RUSA (rainfall 1,402 mm) occurred in 2002 (August $31\;{\sim}$ September 1), satellite images of Landsat 7 ETM+ of September 29, 2000 and Landsat 5 TM of September 11, 2002 were selected, and each land cover was classified for Namdae-cheon watershed $192.7km^2$ located in the middle-eastern part of Korea Peninsula. SCS unit hydrograph for watershed runoff and Muskingum for streamflow routing of WMS HEC-1 was adopted. 30m resolution DEM & hydrological soil group using 1:50,000 soil map were prepared. The model was calibrated using three available data of storm events of 1985 to 1988 based on 1985 land cover condition. To predict the streamflow change by damaged land cover condition, rainfall of 50 years to 500 years frequency were generated using 2nd quantile of Huff method. The damaged land cover condition treated as bare soil surface increased streamflow of $50.1\;m^3/sec$ for 50 years rainfall frequency and $67.6\;m^3/sec$ for 500 years rainfall frequency based on AMC-I condition. There may be some speedy treatment by the government for the next coming typhoon damage.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.6 s.179
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• pp.447-458
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• 2007

In this study, the coastal urban flood prediction and warning system based on HEC-RAS and SWMM were investigated to evaluate a watershed of On-Cheon stream in Busan which has characteristics of costal area cased by flooding of coastal urban areas. The basis of this study is a selection of various geological data from the numerical map that is a watershed of On-Cheon stream and computation of hydrologic GIS data. Thiessen method was used for analyzing of rainfall on the On-Cheon stream and 6th regression equation, which is Huff's Type II was time-distribution of rainfall. To evaluate the deployment of flood prediction and warning system, risk depth was used on the 3 selected areas. To find the threshold runoff for hydraulic analysis of stream, HEC-RAS was used and flood depth and threshold runoff was considered with the effect of tidal water level. To estimate urban flash flood trigger rainfall, PCSWMM 2002 was introduced for hydrologic analysis. Consequently, not only were the criteria of coastal urban flood prediction and warning system decided on the watershed of On-Cheon stream, but also the deployment flow charts of flood prediction and warning system and operation system was evaluated. This study indicates the criteria of flood prediction and warning system on the coastal areas and modeling methods with application of ArcView GIS, HEC-RAS and SWMM on the basin. For the future, flood prediction and warning system should be considered and developed to various basin cases to reduce natural flood disasters in coastal urban area.

• Water for future
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.115-124
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• 1993

This study is to determine the critical duration of design rainfall and to utilize it for the design of detention pond with pump station. To examine the effect of the duration and temporal distribution of the design rainfall, Huff's quartile method is used for the 9 cases of durations ranging from 20 to 240 minutes with 10 years return period, and the ILLUDAS model is used for runoff analysis. The storage ration which is the ratio of maximum storage amounts to total runoff volume, is introduced to determine the critical duration of design rainfall. The duration which maximizes the storage ratio is adopted as the critical duration. This study is applied to 18 urban drainage watersheds with pump station in Seoul, of which the range of watershed area is $0.24-12.70\textrm{km}^2.$ The result of simulation shows that the duration which maximizes storage ration is 30 and 60 minutes on the whole. It is shown also that the storage ration of 2nd- and 3rd-quartile pattern is larger than that of 1st- and 4th-quartile pattern of temporal distribution. A simplified empirical formula for Seoul area is suggested by using the regression analysis between the maximum storage ration and the peak ratio, and can be utilized for the preliminary design and planning of detention pond with pump station.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.773-783
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• 2009

The effects of rainfall input uncertainty on predictions of stream flow are studied based extended GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) approach. The uncertainty in the rainfall data is implemented by systematic/non-systematic rainfall measurement analysis in Weida catchment, Germany. PDM (Probability Distribution Model) rainfall runoff model is selected for hydrological representation of the catchment. Using general correction procedure and DUE(Data Uncertainty Engine), feasible rainfall time series are generated. These series are applied to PDM in MC(Monte Carlo) and GLUE method; Posterior distributions of the model parameters are examined and behavioural model parameters are selected for simplified GLUE prediction of stream flow. All predictions are combined to develop ensemble prediction and 90 percentile of ensemble prediction, which are used to show the effects of uncertainty sources of input data and model parameters. The results show acceptable performances in all flow regime, except underestimation of the peak flows. These results are not definite proof of the effects of rainfall uncertainty on parameter estimation; however, extended GLUE approach in this study is a potential method which can include major uncertainty in the rainfall-runoff modelling.