• Survey Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.135-158
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• 2012

Korean telephone surveys have been based on landline telephone directory or RDD(Random Digit Dialing) method. These days, however, there has been an increase of the households with no landline, or households with the line but not willing to register in the directory. Moreover, it is hard to contact young people or office workers who are usually staying out of home in the daytime. Due to these issues above, the predictability of election polls gets weaker. Especially, low accessibility to those who stay out of home when the poll's done, results in predictions with positive inclination toward conservatism. A solution to resolve this problem is to contact respondents by using both mobile and landline phones-via landline phone to those who are at home and via mobile phone to those who are out of home in the daytime(Mixed Mode Survey, hereafter MMS). To conduct MMS, 1) we need to obtain the sampling frames for the landline and mobile surveys, and 2) we need to decide the proportion of sample size of both. In this paper, we propose a heuristic method for conducting MMS. The method uses RDD for the landline phone survey, and the access panel list for the mobile phone survey. The proportion of sample sizes between landline and mobile phones are determined based on the 'Lifestyle and Time Use Study' conducted by Statistics Korea. As a case study, 4 election polls were conducted in the periods of the special election for the mayor of Seoul on Oct 26th, 2011. From the initial 3 polls, reactions and responses regarding the issues raised during the survey period were appropriately covered, and the final poll showed a very close prediction to the real election result.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.203-224
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the budget allocation of Busan-Gwangyang port and political variables such as general election, presidential election, local election and political regimes. To do this, this study did correlation analyses using budget data of all ports in Korea, Busan, and Gwangyang during 1985-2007. The main results of the correlation analyses are as follow: First, there was a positive correlation between budget of Busan and local election. Also, there was a positive correlation between budget of Gwangyang and presidential election. This results suggest that public choice model and political business cycle model seem to apply to the port development policy. Second, there was no correlation between the regionalism of the political regime and budget of Busan-Gwangyang ports. Third, it can be inferred that the national agenda of the hub strategy can be positively related to the implementation of port development budget. Further studies are needed to analyse the relationship between the political variables and establishment of port plan, decision making about port development and ground-breaking of port construction.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.587-598
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• 2016

In predicting an outcome of election using a variety of methods ahead of the election, non-response is one of the major issues. Therefore, to address the non-response issue, a variety of methods of non-response imputation may be employed, but the result of forecasting tend to vary according to methods. In this study, in order to improve electoral forecasts, we studied a model based method of non-response imputation attempting to apply the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, introduced by Wei and Tanner (1990). The MCEM algorithm using maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) is applied to solve the boundary solution problem under the non-ignorable non-response mechanism. We performed the simulation studies to compare estimation performance among MCEM, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation method. The results of simulation studies showed that MCEM method can be a reasonable candidate for non-response model estimation. We also applied MCEM method to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012 and investigated prediction performance using modified within precinct error (MWPE) criterion (Bautista et al., 2007).

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.30-39
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• 2018

This study was conducted with the aim of presenting a strategic implication for effective political campaign in the election situation which is held almost every year including the early presidential election. For this purpose, the $2{\times}2{\times}2$ triad experiment design of framing, involvement, political efficacy. The result shows that the main effect of framing and political efficacy was found, but the main effect of involvement was not shown. And also a result of two-way ANOVA, the interaction between framing and involvement was significant, but the interaction effect between framing and political efficacy was not significant. In addition, the three-way interaction effects of framing, involvement, and political efficacy were also significant. This study suggests that prospect theory is not often used to test the effects of political campaign messages and suggests new perspectives on political campaign strategies by introducing the prospect theory into election campaign message research.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.83-93
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• 2009

The politics instruction, where utilizing an online game named 'Goonzu' as an instructional tool had been implemented to students from four classes of 5th grade during ten weeks. Four teachers participated in teaching the students and constructed curriculum by playing 'Goonzu' and analyzing the regular elemental school Politics curriculum before implementation. To verify effectiveness of the instruction, the survey, asking students' efficacy, interest and their cognitive changes of main elements that students considered when they elected their representatives, was conducted. Moreover opinions about this instruction from the students and the teachers were gathered through the forms of interview and short essay. As the results of this research, students' efficacy toward doing politic activities was significantly increased. However, m case of students' interests to this instruction, there was no significant difference despite of increase of the mean. Also, students put more weight on intrinsic e1ements(daigency, responsibility) of the representative in online election than offline election and the students, who took the course, stressed intrinsic elements more than other students.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.5-40
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• 2021

This study attempts to analyze gender gaps in voter turnout for three different types of elections held since 2017 at the aggregate level using the Central Election Management Commission's turnout data, paying attention to the importance of women's voting. The findings are as follows. First, modern gender gaps in voter turnout at the aggregate level are confirmed in most regions regardless of election types. Second, the gender gap in turnout varies with age. The gender difference is verified in the "widowhood effect," where turnout decreases in the oldest-old. In the new voter group, modern gender gaps appear in most regions. The reversed gender difference in turnout in the late 20s, which reflects the Korean society's characteristics, is confirmed in all elections. Third, it is unclear whether the reverse gender gap in turnout becomes more pronounced in urbanized districts. As urbanization progressed, modern gender differences in voter turnout across age groups are observed at the population-based size level. Paradoxically, the modern gender gap tends to be weak and turns into the traditional gender gap in younger age groups (in the late thirties) in Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu, the most modernized districts in Seoul. These results show that the modern gender gap in turnout is now a common phenomenon and continues to be strengthened by newly recruited voters in Korea. Thus we should pay more attention to female voters' political behavior and a new approach beyond the developmental theory to understand the causal mechanism to generate the modern gender gap in voter turnout.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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• v.8C no.3
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• pp.263-270
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• 2001

정보사회를 거치면서 네트워크의 발전과 관련한 많은 응용 분야들이 연구되고 있는데, 그 중에서도 암호학을 이용한 전자 투표의 비중이 증대되고 있다. 이러한 전자 투표는 그 중요성에도 불구하고 아직까지 취약한 점이 많이 산재해 있다. 특히, 전자 투표를 총괄하는 선거 관리위원회가 부정을 저지를 경우 투표 자체의 신뢰성은 무너지게 되며, 투표권의 매매가 성립할 경우에는 전자 투표에 있어 치명적인 악영향을 미치게 될 것이다. 딸서 몬 논문은 기존의 투표를 전자 투표로 적용시키는 과정에서 어떠한 요소들이 필요한지 확인해 보고 선거관리 위원회의 부정 방지 및 매매 방지를 위한 요구 조건을 살펴볼 것이다. 또한 매매방지를 위해 네트워크 상에서 익명성을 제공하는 안전한 선택 기법인 “Magic Sticker” 기법을 사용하여, 투표자의 투표 내용이 공개되더라도 투표 결과를 안전하게 보호할 수 있는 전자 투표 시스템을 제안한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2022.07a
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• pp.351-354
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• 2022

본 연구는 최근 2022년 6월 1일에 실시된 전국 시도교육청 교육감 선거를 계기로 진행된 연구이다. 본 연구의 목적은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2022년 6월 10일까지 '교육감 직선제'를 다룬 언론사 기사들을 분석하여 그 결과를 객관적으로 제시하는 것이다. 분석 대상은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2022년 6월 10일까지 기간을 설정한 후, '교육감'과 '직선제' 2개의 용어가 모두 포함된 국내 54개 주요 언론사 뉴스 기사들(5,610건)이다. 본 연구에서는 뉴스 빅데이터 분석시스템인 빅카인즈(BIGKinds) 서비스를 적극적으로 이용하여 뉴스 트렌드 분석, 네트워크(관계도) 분석, 연관어 분석 등을 진행하였다. 본 연구자료는 관련 학문 연구자와 교육 현장 종사자들에게 시사점을 줄 수 객관적인 자료로 활용될 것이다. 본 연구는 향후 지방교육자치와 교육감 선거의 발전적 모델 탐색을 위한 다양한 연구 과정으로 확대 전개하고자 한다.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.117-143
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• 2011

이 연구는 선거에서 후보자들의 정책 입장(issue stance)을 유권자들이 어떻게 판단하고 인식하는 지 살펴본다. 기존의 연구들은 후보자들의 정책에 대한 유권자들의 인식을 설명하는 데서 캠페인 정보(campaign information)의 직접적인 영향을 제대로 고려하지 않았다. 이 논문은 후보자 정책 입장에 대한 캠페인 정보가 과연 유권자들의 인식에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 지 미국에서 이루어진 실험 데이터를 이용하여 분석한다. 아울러 투영 효과(projection effect)나 허구적 일치성 효과(false consensus effect) 등 기존의 연구에서 제시된 설명들이 이러한 캠페인 정보의 영향을 감안했을 경우에도 여전히 유효한 지 살펴본다. 실험 데이터의 분석 결과는 캠페인 정보가 후보자 정책에 대한 유권자들의 판단에 직접적인 영향을 미치며, 이러한 캠페인 정보의 영향을 감안했을 때 투영 효과는 여전히 유효한 반면 허구적 일치성 효과는 상대적으로 약하게 나타난다는 것을 보여준다.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.213-261
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• 2018

On May 9, 2018, regime change took place in Malaysia. It was the first regime change that took place in 61 years after independence in 1957. The regime change was an unexpected result not only in Malaysian experts but also in political circles. Moreover, the outcome of the election was more shocking because the opposition party was divided in this general election. The regime change in Malaysia was enough to attract worldwide attention because it meant the collapse of the oldest regime in the modern political system that exists, except North Korea and China. How could this have happened? In particular, how could the regime change, which had not been accomplished despite opposition parties' cooperation for almost 20 years, could be achieved with the divided opposition forces? What political implications does the 2018 general election result have for political change and democratization in Malaysia? How will the Malaysian politics be developed in the aftermath of the regime change? It is worth noting that during the process of finding answers, a series of general elections since the start of reformasi in 1998 tended to be likened to a series of "tsunami" in the Malaysian electoral history. This phenomenon of tsunami means that, even though very few predicted the possibility of regime change among academia, civil society and political circles, the regime change was not sudden. In other words, the regime in 2018 was the result of the desire and expectation of political change through a series of elections of Malaysian voters last 20 years. In this context, this study, in analyzing the results of the election in 2018, shows that the activation of electoral politics triggered by the reform movement in 1998, along with the specific situational factors in 2018, could lead to collapse of the ruling government for the first time since independence.