• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비선형 예측

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Multiple Model Fuzzy Prediction Systems with Adaptive Model Selection Based on Rough Sets and its Application to Time Series Forecasting (러프 집합 기반 적응 모델 선택을 갖는 다중 모델 퍼지 예측 시스템 구현과 시계열 예측 응용)

  • Bang, Young-Keun;Lee, Chul-Heui
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the TS fuzzy models that include the linear equations in the consequent part are widely used for time series forecasting, and the prediction performance of them is somewhat dependent on the characteristics of time series such as stationariness. Thus, a new prediction method is suggested in this paper which is especially effective to nonstationary time series prediction. First, data preprocessing is introduced to extract the patterns and regularities of time series well, and then multiple model TS fuzzy predictors are constructed. Next, an appropriate model is chosen for each input data by an adaptive model selection mechanism based on rough sets, and the prediction is going. Finally, the error compensation procedure is added to improve the performance by decreasing the prediction error. Computer simulations are performed on typical cases to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. It may be very useful for the prediction of time series with uncertainty and/or nonstationariness because it handles and reflects better the characteristics of data.

Improved Modal Pushover Analysis of Multi-span Continuous Bridge Structures (다경간 연속 교량 구조물의 지진응답 평가를 위한 개선된 모드별 비탄성 정적 해석법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwak, Hyo-Gyoung;Hong, Seong Jin;Kim, Young Sang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3A
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    • pp.497-512
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, a simple but effective analysis procedure to estimate seismic capacities of multi-span continuous bridge structures is proposed on the basis of modal pushover analysis considering all the dynamic modes of structure. Unlike previous studies, the proposed method eliminates the coupling effects induced from the direct application of modal decomposition by introducing an identical stiffness ratio and an approximate elastic deformed shape. Moreover, in addition to these two introductions, the use of an appropriate distributed load {P} makes it possible to predict the dynamic responses for all kinds of bridge structures through a simpler analysis procedure. Finally, in order to establish the validity and applicability of the proposed method, correlation studies between rigorous nonlinear time history analysis and the proposed method are conducted for multi-span continuous bridges.

Forecast of the Daily Inflow with Artificial Neural Network using Wavelet Transform at Chungju Dam (웨이블렛 변환을 적용한 인공신경망에 의한 충주댐 일유입량 예측)

  • Ryu, Yongjun;Shin, Ju-Young;Nam, Woosung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.12
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    • pp.1321-1330
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the daily inflow at the basin of Chungju dam is predicted using wavelet-artificial neural network for nonlinear model. Time series generally consists of a linear combination of trend, periodicity and stochastic component. However, when framing time series model through these data, trend and periodicity component have to be removed. Wavelet transform which is denoising technique is applied to remove nonlinear dynamic noise such as trend and periodicity included in hydrometeorological data and simple noise that arises in the measurement process. The wavelet-artificial neural network (WANN) using data applied wavelet transform as input variable and the artificial neural network (ANN) using only raw data are compared. As a results, coefficient of determination and the slope through linear regression show that WANN is higher than ANN by 0.031 and 0.0115 respectively. And RMSE and RRMSE of WANN are smaller than those of ANN by 37.388 and 0.099 respectively. Therefore, WANN model applied in this study shows more accurate results than ANN and application of denoising technique through wavelet transforms is expected that more accurate predictions than the use of raw data with noise.

A Study on the Nonlinear Modeling of Lead Rubber Bearings by a Neural Network Theory (신경망 이론을 적용한 납삽입 적층 고무베어링의 비선형 모델링 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Huh, Young-Cheol;Kim, Young-Joong;Kim, Byung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, a nonlinear modeling of lead rubber bearings(LRBs) was presented by a neural network theory. An shaking table test for a scaled frame model, of which base was isolated by the LRBs, was performed to verify numerical accuracies of the neural network model. White noise and three types of seismic records were adoped as base loads of the shaking table in order to train and generalize the neural network in case of seismic loads, numerical results of the neural network model were evaluated according to different magnitudes of PGA. As results, it is concluded that the presented neural network model has given a good agreement with the experimental data in details and can be useful to a nonlinear modeling of LRBs within prescribed domains.

Nonlinearly Distributed Active Earth Pressure on n Translating Rigid Retaining Wall : I. Formulation (평행이동하는 강성옹벽에 작용하는 비선형 주동토압 : I. 정식화)

  • 백규호
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.181-189
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    • 2003
  • The active earth pressure against a rigid retaining wall has been generally calculated using either Rankine's or Coulomb's formulation. Both assume that the distribution of active earth pressure exerted against the wall is triangular. However, many experimental results show that the distribution of the active earth pressure on a rigid rough wall is nonlinear. These results do not agree with the assumption used in both Rankine's and Coulomb's theories. The nonlinearity of the active earth pressure distribution results from arching effects in the backfill. Several researchers have attempted to estimate the active earth pressure on a rigid retaining wall, considering arching effect in the backfill. Their equations, however, have some limitations. In this paper, a new formulation for calculating the active earth pressure on a rough rigid retaining wall undergoing horizontal translation is proposed. It takes into account the arching effects that occur in the backfill.

The Nonlinear Combustion Instability Prediction of Solid Rocket Motors (고체로켓모터의 비선형 연소 불안정성 예측 기법)

  • Hong, Ji-Seok;Moon, Hee-Jang;Sung, Hong-Gye;Um, Won-Seok;Seo, Seonghyeon;Lee, Do-hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2016
  • The prediction of combustion instability is important to avoid an obvious threat to the structural safety and the motor performance because it affects the apparent response function of the propellant, the burning rate, and a mean flow Mach number at the local surface. The combustion instability occurs in case acoustic waves were coupled with the combustion/flow dynamic frequency. In this paper, an acoustic instability model is derived from the nonlinear wave equation for analysing acoustic dynamics in solid rocket motors. The chamber pressure and burning rate effects on combustion instability have been investigated.

Numerical Simulation of Turbulent Heat Transfer in a Channel with One Wavy Wall (파형벽면이 있는 채널내의 난류열전달에 대한 수치해석)

  • Park Tae-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2005
  • Turbulent heat transfer over a fully-developed wavy channel is investigated by a turbulence model. The nonlinear k- f - f$_{ model of Park et at.[1] is slightly modified and their explicit algebraic heat flux model is employed. The Reynolds number is fixed at Re$_{b}$=6760 and the wave configuration is varied in the range of 0 $\leq$ $\alpha$/$\lambda$$\leq$0.15 and 0.25 $\leq$A/H$\leq$4.0. In order to verify model performances, a large eddy simulation is performed for the selected cases. The model performance is shown to be generally satisfactory. By using k- $\varepsilon$ - f$_{ model, the enhancement of heat transfer and the characteristics of turbulent flow in wavy wall are investigated. Finally, the influence of wavy configuration on heat transfer is scrutinized.

Two-way Shear Behavior Analysis of Transfer Slab-Column Connection with Reverse Drop Panel Through Nonlinear FE Analysis (역드랍 패널 적용 전이슬래브-기둥 접합부의 비선형 유한요소해석을 통한 2면 전단거동 분석)

  • Jeong, Seong-Hun;Kang, Su-Min;Kim, Seung-Il;Lee, Chang-Jun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the use of transfer slab system has increased greatly. However, several construction problems are being encountered owing to its excessive thickness. Therefore, in this study, a transfer slab system that uses a reverse drop panel, which can utilize the facility space of the pit floor by reducing the transfer slab thickness, was considered. To investigate the shear behavior of transfer slab system that uses the reverse drop panel, the two-way shear strength of transfer slab-column connection with the reverse drop panel was analyzed using nonlinear FE analysis. In addition, the two-way shear strength evaluations of transfer slab with the reverse drop panel conducted using the existing evaluation methods were verified by comparing the strengths predicted by those methods with the results of nonlinear FE analysis.

Nonlinear Analysis of Composite Basement Wall Using Contact Element (접촉면 요소를 사용한 합성 지하벽의 비선형 해석)

  • Seo, Soo Yeon;Lee, Chenggao
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.176-184
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this paper is to suggest a nonlinear analysis process to predict the structural behavior and strength of composite basement wall member combined with H-Pile. Therefore, the structural behavior of composite basement wall is studied and the special nonlinear characteristics of each elements such as H-Pile, concrete wall, and shear connectors are idealized using ATENA program. Finally, the result is compared with previous test result. Research result shows that there is a good co-relation between analysis and test results even if analysis result has little bit higher initial stiffness than test result. It can be concluded that the nonlinear behavior of composite basement wall is suitably predicted by using the contact element model in ATENA program as shear connector element.

Nonlinear Analysis of Slender Double Skin Composite Walls Subjected to Cyclic Loading (주기하중을 받는 세장한 이중강판합성벽의 비선형해석)

  • Eom, Tae Sung;Park, Hong Gun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2008
  • A numerical analysis method was studied to predict the nonlinear behavior of slender double skin composite walls. For convenience in numerical analysis, the model for the double skin composite wall was developed as a macroscopic model that can predict nonlinear behavior with relatively simplified models. For the wall showing flexure-dominant behavior, a multiple layer model was used. Each layer was modeled with composite elements of concrete and steel plate. An X-type truss model was used for coupling beams showing shear-dominant behavior. To describe the cyclic behavior of concrete and steel elements, simplified cyclic models for the materials were proposed. The proposed analysis model was applied to isolated walls and coupled walls with rectangular or T-shaped cross-sections. The analytical results were compared with existing test results.