• 제목/요약/키워드: 비선형 예측

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Evaluating the prediction models of leaf wetness duration for citrus orchards in Jeju, South Korea (제주 감귤 과수원에서의 이슬지속시간 예측 모델 평가)

  • Park, Jun Sang;Seo, Yun Am;Kim, Kyu Rang;Ha, Jong-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.262-276
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    • 2018
  • Models to predict Leaf Wetness Duration (LWD) were evaluated using the observed meteorological and dew data at the 11 citrus orchards in Jeju, South Korea from 2016 to 2017. The sensitivity and the prediction accuracy were evaluated with four models (i.e., Number of Hours of Relative Humidity (NHRH), Classification And Regression Tree/Stepwise Linear Discriminant (CART/SLD), Penman-Monteith (PM), Deep-learning Neural Network (DNN)). The sensitivity of models was evaluated with rainfall and seasonal changes. When the data in rainy days were excluded from the whole data set, the LWD models had smaller average error (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) about 1.5hours). The seasonal error of the DNN model had the similar magnitude (RMSE about 3 hours) among all seasons excluding winter. The other models had the greatest error in summer (RMSE about 9.6 hours) and the lowest error in winter (RMSE about 3.3 hours). These models were also evaluated by the statistical error analysis method and the regression analysis method of mean squared deviation. The DNN model had the best performance by statistical error whereas the CART/SLD model had the worst prediction accuracy. The Mean Square Deviation (MSD) is a method of analyzing the linearity of a model with three components: squared bias (SB), nonunity slope (NU), and lack of correlation (LC). Better model performance was determined by lower SB and LC and higher NU. The results of MSD analysis indicated that the DNN model would provide the best performance and followed by the PM, the NHRH and the CART/SLD in order. This result suggested that the machine learning model would be useful to improve the accuracy of agricultural information using meteorological data.

Dynamic Response of Tension Leg Platform (Tension Leg Platform의 동적응답에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Woon Kwang;Pyun, Chong Kun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1985
  • The tension leg platform (TLP) is a kind of compliant structures, and is also a type of moored stable platform with a buoyancy exceeding the weight because of having tensioned vertical anchor cables. In this paper, among the various kinds of tension leg structures, Deep Oil Technology (DOT) TLP was analyzed because it has large-displacement portions of the immersed surface such as vertical corner pontoons and small-diameter elongated members such as cross-bracing. It also has results of hydraulic model tests, comparable with theorectical analysis. Because of the vertical axes of symmetry in the three vertical buoyant legs and because there are no larger horizontal buoyant members between these three vertical members, it was decided to develop a numerical algorithm which would predict the dynamic response of the DOT TLP using the previously developed numerical algorithm Floating Vessel Response Simulation (FVRS) for vertically axisymmetric bodies of revolution. In addition, a linearized hydroelastic Morison equation subroutine would be developed to account for the hydrodynamic pressure forces on the small member cross bracing. Interaction between the large buoyant members or small member cross bracings is considered to be negligible and is not included in the analysis. The dynamic response of the DOT TLP in the surge mode is compared with the results of the TLP algorithm for various combinations of diffraction and Morison forces and moments. The results which include the Morison equation are better than the results for diffraction only. This is because the vertically axisymmetric buoyant members are only marginally large enough to consider diffractions effects. The prototype TLP results are expected to be more inertially dominated.

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Decomposition Characteristics of Fungicides(Benomyl) using a Design of Experiment(DOE) in an E-beam Process and Acute Toxicity Assessment (전자빔 공정에서 실험계획법을 이용한 살균제 Benomyl의 제거특성 및 독성평가)

  • Yu, Seung-Ho;Cho, Il-Hyoung;Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin;Chun, Suk-Young;Kim, Han-Lae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • 제30권9호
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    • pp.955-960
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    • 2008
  • We investigated and estimated at the characteristics of decomposition and mineralization of benomyl using a design of experiment(DOE) based on the general factorial design in an E-beam process, and also the main factors(variables) with benomyl concentration(X$_1$) and E-beam irradiation(X$_2$) which consisted of 5 levels in each factor was set up to estimate the prediction model and the optimization conditions. At frist, the benomyl in all treatment combinations except 17 and 18 trials was almost degraded and the difference in the decomposition of benomyl in the 3 blocks was not significant(p > 0.05, one-way ANOVA). However, the % of benomyl mineralization was 46%(block 1), 36.7%(block 2) and 22%(block 3) and showed the significant difference of the % that between each block(p < 0.05). The linear regression equations of benomyl mineralization in each block were also estimated as followed; block 1(Y$_1$ = 0.024X$_1$ + 34.1(R$^2$ = 0.929)), block 2(Y$_2$ = 0.026X$_2$ + 23.1(R$^2$ = 0.976)) and block 3(Y$_3$ = 0.034X$_3$ + 6.2(R$^2$ = 0.98)). The normality of benomyl mineralization obtained from Anderson-Darling test in all treatment conditions was satisfied(p > 0.05). The results of prediction model and optimization point using the canonical analysis in order to obtain the optimal operation conditions were Y = 39.96 - 9.36X$_1$ + 0.03X$_2$ - 10.67X$_1{^2}$ - 0.001X$_2{^2}$ + 0.011X$_1$X$_2$(R$^2$ = 96.3%, Adjusted R$^2$ = 94.8%) and 57.3% at 0.55 mg/L and 950 Gy, respectively. A Microtox test using V. fischeri showed that the toxicity, expressed as the inhibition(%), was reduced almost completely after an E-beam irradiation, whereas the inhibition(%) for 0.5 mg/L, 1 mg/L and 1.5 mg/L was 10.25%, 20.14% and 26.2% in the initial reactions in the absence of an E-beam illumination.

Prediction of commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvements according to the styles of loving using a datamining technique (데이터마이닝을 활용한 사랑의 형태에 따른 연인관계 몰입수준 및 관계 지속여부 예측)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2016
  • Successful relationship with loving partners is one of the most important factors in life. In psychology, there have been some previous researches studying the factors influencing romantic relationships. However, most of these researches were performed based on statistical analysis; thus they have limitations in analyzing complex non-linear relationships or rules based reasoning. This research analyzes commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvement according to styles of loving using a datamining technique as well as statistical methods. In this research, we consider six different styles of loving - 'eros', 'ludus', 'stroge', 'pragma', 'mania' and 'agape' which influence romantic relationships between lovers, besides the factors suggested by the previous researches. These six types of love are defined by Lee (1977) as follows: 'eros' is romantic, passionate love; 'ludus' is a game-playing or uncommitted love; 'storge' is a slow developing, friendship-based love; 'pragma' is a pragmatic, practical, mutually beneficial relationship; 'mania' is an obsessive or possessive love and, lastly, 'agape' is a gentle, caring, giving type of love, brotherly love, not concerned with the self. In order to do this research, data from 105 heterosexual couples were collected. Using the data, a linear regression method was first performed to find out the important factors associated with a commitment to partners. The result shows that 'satisfaction', 'eros' and 'agape' are significant factors associated with the commitment level for both male and female. Interestingly, in male cases, 'agape' has a greater effect on commitment than 'eros'. On the other hand, in female cases, 'eros' is a more significant factor than 'agape' to commitment. In addition to that, 'investment' of the male is also crucial factor for male commitment. Next, decision tree analysis was performed to find out the characteristics of high commitment couples and low commitment couples. In order to build decision tree models in this experiment, 'decision tree' operator in the datamining tool, Rapid Miner was used. The experimental result shows that males having a high satisfaction level in relationship show a high commitment level. However, even though a male may not have a high satisfaction level, if he has made a lot of financial or mental investment in relationship, and his partner shows him a certain amount of 'agape', then he also shows a high commitment level to the female. In the case of female, a women having a high 'eros' and 'satisfaction' level shows a high commitment level. Otherwise, even though a female may not have a high satisfaction level, if her partner shows a certain amount of 'mania' then the female also shows a high commitment level. Finally, this research built a prediction model to establish whether the relationship will persist or break up using a decision tree. The result shows that the most important factor influencing to the break up is a 'narcissistic tendency' of the male. In addition to that, 'satisfaction', 'investment' and 'mania' of both male and female also affect a break up. Interestingly, while the 'mania' level of a male works positively to maintain the relationship, that of a female has a negative influence. The contribution of this research is adopting a new technique of analysis using a datamining method for psychology. In addition, the results of this research can provide useful advice to couples for building a harmonious relationship with each other. This research has several limitations. First, the experimental data was sampled based on oversampling technique to balance the size of each classes. Thus, it has a limitation of evaluating performances of the predictive models objectively. Second, the result data, whether the relationship persists of not, was collected relatively in short periods - 6 months after the initial data collection. Lastly, most of the respondents of the survey is in their 20's. In order to get more general results, we would like to extend this research to general populations.

A Study on the Men's Fashion Trend through the Statistical Analysis (통계적 분석을 통한 남성 패션 트렌드 연구)

  • Kim, Yoon-Kyoung;Lee, Kyoung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.837-847
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    • 2007
  • 1,098 pieces of photographs($1995{\sim}2002$) of men's suit style have been classified according to fashion images in order to examine features and change aspects with statistical analysis. The findings of examining features of the trend by year with test of homogeneity, correspondence analysis, biplots, correlation analysis and regression analysis are as follows: (a) there are significant differences on fashion images as the trend by yew with test of homogeneity, (b) there are remarkable differences on the fashion trend by year with correspondence analysis and biplots. (c) There are significant correlations for appearance among fashion images by its frequency through correlation analysis, and (d) it is assumed that fashion images are going to be gradually outstanding according to regression analysis.

The Change in Geotechnical Properties of Clay Liner and the Contamination Behavior of Groundwater Due to Contaminant (오염물질에 의한 점토 차수재의 역학적 특성변화 및 지하수 오염거동)

  • Ha, Kwang-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Eun;Chung, Sung-Rae;Chun, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2008
  • The triaxial compression tests and consolidation tests using NaCl solution and leachates as substitute pore (or saturated) water in samples were carried out to find out the behavior characteristics of strength, deformation and permeability coefficient of contaminated clay. Also, the chemical property analysis on the clay samples using scanning electron microscope and energy dispersive x-ray spectrometer were involved. The magnitudes of composition ratio were shown in the order of O, C, Si, Al, and Fe as a result of chemical composition analysis for clay samples. Besides, as the results of triaxial compression tests and consolidation tests, the shear strength, compression and permeability properties were increased with increasing in the concentration of contaminant (NaCl). It may be considered that these circumstances be caused by the changes of soil structure to flocculent structure due to the decrease in the thickness of diffuse double layer with increasing in the concentration of electrolyte. MT3D model was also using to grasp the procedures that the groundwater may be contaminated by the leachates permeated through the clay liner. The results of contaminant transport analysis showed a tendency that the predicted concentration of groundwater was higher with increasing in the initial concentration of $Cl^-$ ion and increased as a nonlinear curves with time. The transportation distance calculated by the use of regression equation between the distance from contaminant source and the concentration of $Cl^-$ ion was increased with increasing the initial concentration.

Characteristics of Individual Growth Curve by Porcine LEPR-derived Microsatellite Polymorphisms (돼지의 Leptin receptor 유전자내 초위성체 다형성에 따른 개체별 성장곡선 특성)

  • Cho, Y.M.;Choi, B.H.;Kim, T.H.;Lee, J.W.;Cheong, I.C.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • 제45권6호
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    • pp.885-890
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to estimate the growth curve parameters of 253 heads of F2 population produced by inter-crossing F1 from Korean Native boars and Landrace sows, and to estimate the effects of Leptin receptor gene(LEPR) on their growth characteristics. Growth curve parameters were estimated from nonlinear regression using Gompertz model individually. Average mature weight and average maturing rate estimated were 179.69${\pm}$4.40kg and 0.3103${\pm}$0.0043, respectively. The effect of sex was insignificant for all the parameters estimated from Gempertz model(p〉.05), and the effect of calving group was significant for mature weight and maximum growth rate at inflection point (p〈.05). The effect of LEPR genotype were significant for all the growth curve parameters(p〈.05). According from the results of the least squares means of growth curve parameters by LEPR genotypes, mature weight and point of inflection were highest in genotype AA in which the maturing rate was the lowest, and were lowest in genotype DD in which maturing rate was the highest, reversely.

Analysis of Permeation Efficiency in Soil for OPC and Non-Pollution MIS Grouts by Laboratory Model Test (실내모형시험을 통한 OPC와 친환경 MIS 그라우트의 지반 침투성능 분석)

  • Ahn, Jung-Ho;Lim, Heui-Dae;Choi, Dong-Nam;Song, Young-Su
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • 제45권3호
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    • pp.307-315
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, a laboratory model test was conducted to evaluate grouting efficiency of ordinary portland cement(OPC) and micro cement used in MIS(Micro-Injection Process System). For this research, a injection equipment was developed for pressure permeation which can evenly simulate various grouting tests in a laboratory and suggested a standard for the production of the test specimen. Using the injection device, the laboratory injection tests of grouts were prepared with water/cement ratio of 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, and 5:1. The analysis of injection test for pressure permeation showed that the efficiency of injection increases linearly as the water/cement ratio increases. Comparison of efficiency of the injection indicates that MIS with a relatively smaller average diameter shows more efficient injection than the OPC. In the low ratio of water/cement as 2:1~1:1, the injection efficiency of OPC was especially poor. Also, a nonlinear grout volume-injection time is represented by a hyperbolic model and grout volume predicted by hyperbolic model was compared with the value measured. From the comparison, it shows that the hyperbolic model has the potential of evaluating the efficiency of grouting.

Relationship between Unconfined Compressive Strength and Shear Wave Velocity of Cemented Sands (고결모래의 일축압축강도와 전단파속도의 상관관계)

  • Park, Sung-Sik;Hwang, Se-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2014
  • Cemented soils have been widely used in road and dam construction, and recently ground improvement of soft soils. The strength of such cemented soils can be tested by using cored sample or laboratory-prepared specimen through unconfined compression or triaxial tests. It takes time to core a sample or prepare a testing specimen in the laboratory. In a certain situation, it is necessary to determine the in-situ strength of cemented soils very quickly and on time. In this study, the relation between unconfined compressive strength and shear wave velocity was investigated for predicting the in-situ strength of cemented soils. A small cemented specimen with 5 cm in diameter and 10 cm in height was prepared by Nakdong river sand and ordinary Portland cement. Its cement ratios were 4, 8, 12, and 16% and air cured for 7, 14, and 28 days. For recycling of resources, a blast furnace slag was also used with sodium hydroxide as an alkaline activator. The shear wave velocity for cemented soils was measured and then unconfined compressive strength test was carried out. As a cement ratio increased, the shear wave velocity and unconfined compressive strength increased due to increased density and denser structure. The relation between unconfined compressive strength and shear wave velocity increased nonlinearly for cemented soils with less than 16% of cement ratio.

Influence of Temperature on Chloride Ion Diffusion of Concrete (콘크리트의 염화물이온 확산성상에 미치는 온도의 영향)

  • So, Hyoung-Seok;Choi, Seung-Hoon;Seo, Chung-Seok;Seo, Ki-Seog;So, Seung-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2014
  • The long term integrity of concrete cask is very important for spent nuclear fuel dry storage system. However, there are serious concerns about early deterioration of concrete cask from creaking and corrosion of reinforcing steel by chloride ion because the cask is usually located in seaside, expecially by combined deterioration such as chloride ion and heat, carbonation. This study is to investigate the relation between temperature and chloride ion diffusion of concrete. Immersion tests using 3.5% NaCl solution that were controlled in four level of temperature, i.e. 20, 40, 65, and $90^{\circ}C$, were conducted for four months. The chloride ion diffusion coefficient of concrete was predicted based on the results of profiles of Cl- ion concentration with the depth direction of concrete specimens using the method of potentiometric titration by $AgNO_3$. Test results indicate that the diffusion coefficient of chloride ion increases remarkably with increasing temperature, and there was a linear relation between the natural logarithm values of the diffusion coefficients and the reciprocal of the temperature from the Arrhenius plots. Activation energy of concrete in this study was about 46.6 (W/C = 40%), 41.7 (W/C = 50%), 30.7 (W/C = 60%) kJ/mol under a temperature of up to $90^{\circ}C$, and concrete with lower water-cement ratio has a tendency towards having higher temperature dependency.