• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성치

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Review - Bio-thermal properties of human skin tissue layers for burn prediction model (화상예측 모델 개발을 위한 피부 조직 열물성치 연구에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, Jun-Kyoung;Bang, Chang-Hoon;Kwon, Jung-Suk;Bang, Young-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2012.04a
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    • pp.313-316
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    • 2012
  • 다수의 소방공무원이 화재나 고온 조건 등에 노출되어 화상을 입고 심리적 신체적 고통 받고 있다. 화상 관련 연구는 피부조직의 비선형성, 혈류에 의한 열전달 분석의 불확실성 등 신체 내부의 복잡한 물리현상으로 인하여 국내에서는 연구가 매우 미흡한 실정이다. 이에 따라 화상 예측에 대한 연구를 기반으로 화상을 방지할 수 있는 예방법이 필요하며, 화상 예측의 기초 연구로 피부조직의 형상 모델링 및 열물성치를 정확하게 파악하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구는 피부조직의 형상 및 열물성치와 관련된 기존 연구를 수집 및 정리하여 향후 화상 예측시 좋은 결과를 얻을 수 있도록 하는 데에 그 목적이 있다.

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A tunnel back analysis using artificial neural network technique and face mapping data (인공신경망 기법과 굴진면 관찰자료를 활용한 터널 역해석 연구)

  • You, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Kyoung-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.357-374
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    • 2012
  • Considerable uncertainties are included in ground properties used for tunnel designs due to the limited investigation and tests. In this study, a back analysis was performed to find optimal ground properties based on artificial neural network using both face mapping data and convergence measurement data. First of all, the rock class of a study tunnel is determined from face mapping data. Then the possible ranges of ground properties were selected for each rock class through a literature review on the previous studies and utilized to establish more precise learning data. To find an optimal training model, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted by varying the number of hidden layers and the number of nodes more minutely than the previous study. As a result of this study, more accurate ground properties could be obtained. Therefore it was confirmed that the accuracy of the results could be increased by making use of not only convergence measurement data but also face mapping data in tunnel back analyses using artificial neural network. In future, it is expected that the methodology suggested in this study can be used to estimate ground properties more precisely.

Development of Influence Diagram Based Knowledge Base in Probabilistic Reasoning (인플루언스 다이아그램을 기초로 한 이상진단 지식베이스의 개발)

  • 김영진
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.3124-3134
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    • 1993
  • Diagnosis is composed of two different but interrelated steps ; retrieving the sensory responses f the system and reasoning the state of the system through the given sensor data. This paper explains the probabilistic nature of reasoning involved in the diagnosis when the uncertainties are inevitably included in experts' diagnostic decision making. Uncertainties in decision making are experts' personal experiences, preferences, and system's coherent characteristics. In order to ensure a consistent decision based on the same responses from the system, expert system technology is adopted with the Bayesian reasoning scheme.

A Formulation for Response Variability of Plates Considering Multiple Random Parameters (다중 불확실 인수를 고려한 평판의 응답변화도 산정 정식화)

  • Noh, Hyuk-Chun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.789-799
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we propose a stochastic finite element formulation which takes into account the randonmess in the material and geometrical parameters. The formulation is proposed for plate structures, and is based on the weighted integral approach. Contrary to the case of elastic modulus, plate thickness contributes to the stiffness as a third-order function. Furthermore, Poisson's ratio is even more complex since this parameter appears in the constitutive relations in the fraction form. Accordingly, we employ Taylor's expansion to derive decomposed stochastic field functions in ascending order. In order to verify the proposed formulation, the results obtained using the proposed scheme are compared with those in the literature and those of Monte Carlo analysis as well.

Statistical Behavior of RC Cooling Tower Shell due to Shape Imperfection (철근콘크리트 냉각탑의 형상불완전에 의한 확률론적 거동)

  • 최창근;노혁천
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2000
  • For the large scale reinforced concrete cooling tower shells, the shape imperfection can be introduced due not only to mistakes in the process of construction but also to the long term behavior of concrete. The shape imperfection evokes the additional responses such as displacements and stresses in addition to the design values. In this study, the statistical behavior of the RC cooling tower shell due to the shape imperfection is investigated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The radius of cooling tower and the shell thickness are adopted as the parameters which cause the shape imperfection. The shape imperfection is modeled as a stochastic field rather than the local one of axisymmetric or bulge type of imperfection. The randomness in the radius is shown to be more affecting the structural responses than the randomness in the shell thickness. In addition to the geometrical randomness, the effect of randomness in the modulus of elasticity on the structural response is also investigated and compared with that of the geometrical ones.

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Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines Considering Soil-Pile Interaction and Scouring Effect (지반과 말뚝의 상호작용 및 세굴현상을 고려한 해상풍력터빈의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Yi, Jin-Hak;Kim, Sun-Bin;Yoon, Gil-Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.222-231
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    • 2016
  • Multi-member lattice-type structures including jackets and tripods are being considered as good alternatives to monopile foundations for relatively deep water of 25-50 m of water depth owing to their technical and economic feasibility. In this study, the reliability analysis of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines with monopile and/or multi-member lattice-type foundations is carried out and the sensitivities of random variables such as material properties, external wind loadings and scouring depth are compared with respect to different types of foundations. Numerical analysis of the NREL 5 MW wind turbine supported by monopile, tripod and jacket substructures shows that the uncertainties of soil properties affect the reliability index more significantly for the monopile-supported OWTs while the reliability index is not so sensitive to the material properties in the cases of tripod- and jacket-supported OWTs. In conclusion, the reliability analysis can be preliminarily carried out without considering soil-pile-interaction in the cases of tripod- and jacket-supported OWTs while it is very important to use the well-measured soil properties for reliable design of monopile-supported OWTs.

Development of On-Line Diagnostic Expert System Algorithmic Sensor Validation (진단 전문가시스템의 개발 : 연산적 센서검증)

  • 김영진
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.323-338
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    • 1994
  • This paper outlines a framework for performing intelligent sensor validation for a diagnostic expert system while reasoning under uncertainty. The emphasis is on the algorithmic preprocess technique. A companion paper focusses on heuristic post-processing. Sensor validation plays a vital role in the ability of the overall system to correctly detemine the state of a plant monitored by imperfect sensors. Especially, several theoretical developments were made in understanding uncertain sensory data in statistical aspect. Uncertain information in sensory values is represented through probability assignments on three discrete states, "high", "normal", and "low", and additional sensor confidence measures in Algorithmic Sv.Upper and lower warning limits are generated from the historical learning sets, which represents the borderlines for heat rate degradation generated in the Algorithmic SV initiates a historic data base for better reference in future use. All the information generated in the Algorithmic SV initiate a session to differentiate the sensor fault from the process fault and to make an inference on the system performance. This framework for a diagnostic expert system with sensor validation and reasonig under uncertainty applies in HEATXPRT$^{TM}$, a data-driven on-line expert system for diagnosing heat rate degradation problems in fossil power plants.

Probabilistic Life Assessment for Stress Corrosion Crack Growth of Thermal Power Plant Components (화력발전설비의 응력부식 균열성장에 대한 확률론적 수명평가)

  • Gang, Myeong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.138-143
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    • 2000
  • 화력발전설비의 주요 손상 요인 중의 하나인 응력부식 균열 성장에 대한 확률론적 잔존 수명평가에 대하여 연구하였으며, 손상해석 및 수명평가에 확률해석 기법을 도입한 확률론적 수명평가 프로그램을 개발하였다. 확률론적 수명평가는 재료물성치, 형상, 하중조건, 운전조건 등과 같은 불확실성과 변동 가능성을 고려하여 해석을 수행하며, 일정 시간 운전후 구조물의 손상이 일어날 확률을 예측하는 것이다. 응력부식 균열 성장에 대한 확률론적 잔존 수명평가 연구를 통하여 확률론적 수명평가 기술의 기반을 구축하였으며, 다른 손상기구에 대한 확률론적 수명평가를 수행하여 발전설비에 발생하는 모든 손상에 대하여 확률론적 수명평가가 가능하도록 확대할 계획이다.

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A Study on Design of Production System Using Multiple Characteristics Robust Design in Uncertain Environment (불확실한 환경에서의 다특성치 강건설계를 이용한 생산시스템 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 양광모;서장훈;박진홍;강경식
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.61-65
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    • 2004
  • As technique that can contribute in quality improvement in design process to overcome shortcoming of traditional quality control, call design or development department quality control activity that is achieved to reduce gun damage shuddering at circle minimizing change or side effect of product performance as off-line quality control. This paper discuss optimal process design of investment projects expansion and replacement investment on each line or individual in the production. Generally optimal plant design has add to a few method by Subsidiary means with use a especial method. And then in this paper, a Robust design is presented, which may be effective to the processes appraisal or improvement. We propose that should make a optimal plant design model for reducing field failure rate to assign by real data on different factors in plant system. Using this model, robust design of taguchi method used in this comprehensive method for reducing field failure rate in plant system.

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Numerical Study on Skin Burn Injury due to Flash Flame Exposure (돌발화염으로 인한 화상예측에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Jun-Kyoung;Bang, Chang-Hoon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2012
  • Many fire-fighters suffer from the burn injuries, and the severe burns are the most catastrophic injury a person can survive, resulting in pain, emotional stress, and tremendous economic costs. It is important to understand the physiology of burns for prevention from skin burns and a successful treatment of a burn patient. But a few researches have been presented because the complex physical phenomena of our inside body like non-linearity characteristics of human skin make them difficult. Thus in this study, thermal analyses of biological tissues exposed to a flash fire causing severe tissue damage were studied by using a finite difference method based on the Pennes bio-heat equation. The several previous models for skin thermo-physical properties were summarized, and the calculated values with those models of tissue injury were compared with the results obtained by the previous experiment for low heat flux conditions. The skin models with good agreement could be found. Also, the skin burn injury prediction results with the best model for high heat flux conditions by flash flame were suggested.