• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.222-230
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• 2020

Temperature-dependent development models for Hydrochara affinis were built to estimate the ecological parameters as fundamental research for monitoring the impact of climate change on rice paddy ecosystems in South Korea. The models predicted the number of lifecycles of H. affinis using the daily mean temperature data collected from four regions (Cheorwon, Dangjin, Buan, Haenam) in different latitudes. The developmental rate of each life stage linearly increased as the temperature rose from 18℃ to 30℃. The goodness-of-fit did not significantly differ between the models of each life stage. Unlike the optimal temperature, the estimated thermal limits of development were considerably different among the models. The number of generations of H. affinis was predicted to be 3.6 in a high-latitude region (Cheorwon), while the models predicted this species to have 4.3 generations in other regions. The results of this study can be useful to provide essential information for estimating climate change effects on lifecycle variations of H. affinis and studies on biodiversity conservation in rice fields.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2017

Temperature-dependent development model is an essential component for forecasting models of insect pests as well as for insect population models. This study reviewed the nonlinear models which explain the relationship between temperature and development rate of insects. In the present study, the types of models were classified largely into empirical and biophysical model, and the groups were subdivided into subgroups according to the similarity of mathematical equations or the connection with original idea. Empirical models that apply analytical functions describing the suitable shape of development curve were subdivided into multiple subgroups as Stinner-based types, Logan-based types, performance models and Beta distribution types. Biophysical models based on enzyme kinetic reaction were grouped as monophyletic group leading to Eyring-model, SM-model, SS-mode, and SSI-model. Finally, we described the historical development and characteristics of non-linear development models and discussed the availability of models.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.111-116
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• 2004

The development of Aphis gossypii was studied at various constant temperatures ranging from 15 to 35$^{\circ}C$, with 60-70％ RH, and photoperiod of 16：8 (L：D h). Mortality of A. gossypii was high in the early developmental stages, and at high temperatures. The total immature developmental period ranged from 4.6 to 11.5 days. The lower developmental threshold temperature and effective cumulated temperature for all immature stages were 5.0$^{\circ}C$ and 106.8 degree-day, respective. The nonlinear shape of temperature-dependent development was well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. The normalized cumulative frequency distributions of developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the three-parameter Weibull function.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.119-125
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• 1996

Temperature-dependent development study for overwintered eggs of Pseudococcus comstocki (Kuwana) wasconducted to develop a forecasting model for egg hatch date. Hatch times of overwintered eggs were comparedat five constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 27$^{\circ}$C) and different collection dates. A nonlinear, four-parameterdevelopmental model with high temperature inhibition accurately described (R2=0.9948) mean developmentalrates of all temperatures. Variation in developmental times was modeled(~~=0.972w9)it h a cumulative Weibullfunction. Least-squares linear regression (rate=O.O06358[Temp.]-0.07566)d escribed development in the linearregion (15-25$^{\circ}$C) of the development curve. The low development threshold temperature was estimated 11.9"Cand 154.14 degree-days were required for complete development. The linear degree-day model (thermal summation)and rate summation model (Wagner et al. 1985) were validated using field phenology data. In degreedaymodels, mean-minus-base method, sine wave method, and rectangle method were used in estimation of dailythermal units. Mean-minus-base method was 18 to 28d late, sine wave method was 11 to 14d late, rectanglemethod was 3 to 5d late, and rate summation model was 2 to 3d late in predicting 50% hatch of overwinteredeggs. hatch of overwintered eggs.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.43-51
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• 2003

This study was carried out to develop the forecasting model of Pseudococcus comtocki Kuwana for timing spray. Field phonology and temperature-dependent development of p. comstocki were studied, and its stage transition models were developed. p comstocki occurred three generations a year in Suwon. The 1 st adults occurred during mid to late June, and the 2nd adults were abundant during mid to late August. The 3rd adults were observed after late October. The development times of each instar of p. comstocki decreased with increasing temperature up to 25$^{\circ}C$, and thereafter the development times increased. The estimated low-threshold temperatures were 14.5, 8.4, 10.2, 11.8, and 10.1$^{\circ}C$ for eggs, 1st+2nd nymphs, 3rd nymphs, preoviposition, and 1st nymphs to preoviposition, respectively. The degree-days (thermal constants) for completion of each instar development were 105 DD for egg,315 DD for 1st+2nd nymph, 143 DD for 3rd nymph, 143 DD for preoviposition, and 599 DD for 1 st nymph to preoviposition. The stage transition models of p. comstocki, which simulate the proportion of individuals shifted from a stage to the next stage, were constructed using the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model and the Weibull function. In field validation, degree-day models using mean-minus-base, sine wave, and rectangle method showed 2-3d, 1-7d, and 0-6 d deviation with actual data in predicting the peak oviposition time of the 1st and 2nd generation adults, respectively. The rate summation model, in which daily development rates estimated by biophysical model of Sharpe and DeMichele were accumulated, showed 1-2 d deviation with actual data at the same phonology predictions.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.305-312
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• 2010

The developmental time of immature stages of Paromius exiguus (Distant) was investigated at nine constant temperatures (15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20-30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10h (L:D). Eggs did not develop at $15^{\circ}C$, and their developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures. Its developmental time was longest at $17.5^{\circ}C$ (28.2 days) and shortest at $35^{\circ}C$ (5.9 days). The first nymphs failed to reach the next nymphal stage at 17.5 and $35^{\circ}C$. Nymphal developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures between $20^{\circ}C$ and $32.5^{\circ}C$, and developmental rate was decreased at temperatures above $30^{\circ}C$ in all stages except for the fourth nymphal stage. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature fit a linear model and three nonlinear models (Briere 1, Lactin 2, and Logan 6). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $l3.8^{\circ}C$ and $15.3^{\circ}C$, respectively. The thermal constant required to reach complete egg and the total nymphal stage was 109.9 and 312.5DD, respectively. The Logan-6 model was best fitted ($r^2$=0.94-0.99), among three nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.91-0.99).

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.435-447
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• 2022

The soybean podborer, Matsumuraeses falcana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is one of important pests in soybean crop. In the purpose of forecasting population dynamics of M. falcana, we investigated the effects of temperature on development of each life stage, adult longevity and fecundity of Matsumuraeses falcana at seven constant temperatures of 10, 13, 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31℃. Eggs hatched successfully at all temperature subjected. M. falcana developed from egg hatching to adult emergence at the tested temperatures except 10, 13, and 31℃. The developmental period of each life stage and adult longevity of M. falcana decreased as temperature increased. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) from egg hatching to adult emergence of M. falcana were estimated by linear regression as 10.2℃ and 492.04DD, respectively. Lower and higher threshold temperature (TL and TH) were calculated by the Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois (LRF) and Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) models. TL and TH from egg hatching to adult emergence using SSI model were 16.7℃ and 29.1℃. Thermal windows, i.e., the range in temperature between the minimum and maximum rate of development, of M. falcana was 12.4℃. We constructed the adult oviposition model of M. falcana using adult survivorship and fecundity. Temperature-dependent immature development and adult oviposition models will help constructing the population model of M. falcana and developing the strategies of integrated pest management in soybean fields.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.299-304
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 자궁 내 태아의 발육지연이 주산기 사망률 및 이환율을 증가시키는 고위험 임신의 한 예로써, 태아 발육제한증과 관련한 비선형적인 자료를 통계적인 방법으로 접근하는데 초점을 두었다. 이에 정상태아와 발육제한증 태아를 판별하기 위한 분석을 실시함에 있어 신경망 이론 중 하나인 다층 퍼셉트론 모형으로 예측하고자 하였다.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.556-566
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• 2022

The temperature-dependent development of Poinsettia thrips, Echinothrips americanus was studied at eight constant temperatures (15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, and 32.5±1℃), 65±5% RH and photoperiod of 16L:8D conditions. The developmental stages were divided into egg, 1st instar, 2nd instar, pre-pupa, pupa, and adult. The total developmental time in the immature stage was 40.4 days at 15.0℃ and 11.6 days at 30.0℃, and it decreased with increasing temperature. The lowest temperature of the whole immature period was 10.7℃, and the cumulative temperature to complete the entire immature period was 217.4 degree days. The optimal development temperature (T_opt) for the whole immature stage was estimated to be in the range of 30.51-31.21℃. T_opt for each immature stage was 31.64-35.47℃ at egg, 30.02-33.08℃ at 1st instar, 29.16-34.43℃ at 2nd instar, 27.63-29.21℃ at pre-pupa, and 29.81-30.12℃ at pupa. In the analysis of the six non-linear models, Logan 6 model was the most appropriate as Zi(Weighting Factors) was 0.18.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.235-245
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• 2011

Temperature-related parameters of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acarina: Tetranychidae) development were estimated and a stage-structured matrix model was developed. The lower threshold temperatures were estimated as $8.4^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $9.9^{\circ}C$ for larvae, $9.2^{\circ}C$ for protonymphs, and $10.9^{\circ}C$ for deutonymphs. Thermal constants were 113.6, 29.1, 29.8, and 33.4 degree days for eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, respectively. Non-linear development models were established for each stage of P. citri. In addition, temperature-dependent total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate models were developed for the construction of an oviposition model. P. citri age was categorized into five stages to construct a matrix model: eggs, larvae, protonymphs, deutonymphs and adults. For the elements in the projection matrix, transition probabilities from an age class to the next age class or the probabilities of remaining in an age class were obtained from development rate function of each stage (age classes). Also, the fecundity coefficients of adult population were expressed as the products of adult longevity completion rate (1/longevity) by temperature-dependent total fecundity. To evaluate the predictability of the matrix model, model outputs were compared with actual field data in a cool early season and hot mid to late season in 2004. The model outputs closely matched the actual field patterns within 30 d after the model was run in both the early and mid to late seasons. Therefore, the developed matrix model can be used to estimate the population density of P. citri for a period of 30 d in citrus orchards.