• Title/Summary/Keyword: 미래연구

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

Cellulosic Ethanol Production (셀룰로식 (Cellulosic) 에탄올 생산)

  • Chung, Chang-Ho
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2008
  • The world demand of ethanol as an alternative fuel for gasoline is increasing rapidly because of high oil price and global climate change. Most of ethanol is currently produced from corn grain or sugars in sugarcane and sugar beet. Because these sources compete with foods and animal feed and are not expected to be enough for future demand of ethanol. Thus, cellulosic ethanol from agricultural residues or wood has to be commercialized in near future. Typical cellulosic ethanol production consists of pretreatment, enzyme hydrolysis, fermentation and product separation. This paper reviews the principles and status of each step and discusses issues for cellulosic ethanol production.

Analyzing the Driving Forces for the Change of Urban Green Spaces in Daegu with Logistic Regression and Geographical Detector (로지스틱 회귀분석과 지리 탐색기를 이용한 대구시 녹지 변화의 동인 분석)

  • Seo, Hyun-Jin;Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.403-419
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the forces to drive the change of urban green spaces in Daegu from 1989 to 2009. First, the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in the past 20 years were spatially identified by performing the hot spots analysis for the cell-based spatial metrics quantifying the size and diversity of green spaces. Next, seven drivers such as slope, distance to roads, land price, population density, ratios of residential, commercial, and industrial areas were selected based on the previous studies and the direction of the association between the loss and fragmentation of green spaces and seven drivers was analyzed with the stepwise logistic regression. Finally, the relative importance of the seven drivers and their interactions in the past 20 years were analyzed with the geographical detector. The results show that the loss of green spaces was concentrated on a part of the Anshim housing development district from 1989 to 2009 and green spaces were highly fragmented around the housing development districts such as Seongseo, Anshim, Dalseong-gun and Chilgok. The forces to drive the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in these areas were different at the administrative levels, but the drivers such as slope and ratios of residential and industrial areas were commonly significant. These drivers were positively correlated with largest patch index(LPI) quantifying the loss of green spaces while they were negatively correlated with Shannon's diversity index(SHDI) measuring the fragmentation of green spaces. In other words, the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu appeared around such regions with lower slope and lower ratios of residential and industrial areas. The relative importance of drivers for LPI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and ratio of commercial area in descending order whereas that of drivers for SHDI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and distance to roads in descending order. Also, the interaction between slope and ratio of residential area had a great impact on LPI and SHDI. The ratio of industrial area was a single driver to most significantly explain the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu in the past 20 years. The interaction between slope and ratio of residential area was greater than the independent influence of a single driver. This study will provide the base data to build a sustainable urban green policy for the city of Daegu in the near future.

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Semiological Implication of Dance Images in TV Advertisement (TV광고에 나타난 무용이미지의 기호학적 의미에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Ayoung
    • Trans-
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    • v.1
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    • pp.21-44
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    • 2016
  • Advertisement is composed with symbol and sign with messages trying to express. Especially, ad with dancer introduces goods or meaning of contents with the motion of dance. In this, contents of dance or motion of dancer contains symbol and sign, understanding how ad and dance are expressed meanings with which symbol and the symbolic meaning of dance or dancer on ad. To that end, this study is for analyzing expressed symbol with dance corresponds with the aim of ad and finding the way or attitude of how normal people accept dance by reevaluating symbolic meaning of dance itself. In this study, advertisement producer and director's related data is secured for understanding direction and intention of producer, and previous study related with the study purpose, image, and effect are analyzed for understanding image of dance as a physical sign on TV advertisement. With data from www.TVCF.co.kr. TV advertisement analysis is conducted only with four ads in 2008(Nam Kwang Eng. & Const Co., Lotte Dept. Store(premium sale/gift card), Hyundai Motor Company Santa Fe -Pilobolus) and one ad in 2011(PNS The zone Sash Italy Arena di Verona when dance was used for advertisement with the highest frequency per year. Also, based on considered important factors from repeatedly watching each advertisement, scenes where movement or motion of dancer and screen word is greatly changed are analyzed as a priority. Image analysis of dance is conducted with structure studies based on physical image(line, costume, expression) and dan image(type motion, qualitative feature, mood of dance). As a result, the symbolic dance image appeared in TV advertisement can be discussed as follows. First, symbol and sign of dance on advertisement corresponds with material objects of advertisement. For instance, on the TV advertisement where Lee Youngwoo appeared, his motion as a signifer means challenge for the future of Nam Kwang Eng. & Const Co., with fast turn, jump, assemble turning jump, and sliding. Second, physical image of dancer depending on intention of sender corresponds in general, but there are somewhat differences in image of dance. This makes people to unconsciously recognize symbolic image of dance on TV ad while they watch it at the same time. Especially, when it comes to advertisement, it exposes frequently with broadcasting of organized programs from a broadcaster, living long-time memory. It can be differ based on idea and character of each of receiver. Advertisement is a medium making people naturally adopt cultural art for ordinary people in their lives. Broadcasting public art from TV advertisement widely exposes pure art to people, which was only avaliable for minority, sublimating it as an art of public culture.

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Study on Amenity and Economical Efficiency of Multi-functionality on the Grassland (초지형 축산의 어메니티 및 경제성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, D.W.;Lee, S.Y.;Park, M.S.;Park, H.S.;Hwang, K.J.;Yun, S.H.;Ko, M.S.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.297-312
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    • 2007
  • This study is conducted to evaluate economical value of Jeju grassland and validity of its preservation, and draw up several measures to support. To measure its economical value, this study examined its environmental value and social and cultural value. For environmental value, this study used replacement method while it applied CVM method, a widely used method, to assess social and cultural value and two-level two-best choice selection method, which ask questions by assuming virtual circumstances to avoid reflecting some biased opinions. Jeju grassland has multiple functions-environmental functions such as preventing soil corrosion and flood, handling animal excrement, and purifying air, and social and cultural functions such as promoting physical and mental health and providing recreation places. From the results of the feasibility study, Jeju grassland's annual multiple functions are assessed to have a total $397,115{\sim}418,995$ million won worth. In addition, it is found that Jeju visitors recognize Jeju grassland for its functions to contribute to public interests. That is, they think it can provide attractive views and educational and recreational places and promote emotional development. Especially, many people presented their ideas that it be continuously preserved since it is worthwhile for us and our next generations. To preserve grassland's cultural resource, which create a huge economic value like this, the Government has to support a certain amount of financial aid for turning to a better grassland environment and its maintenance to realize environment-friendly livestock farming on Jeju Island and promote its tourism industry and consequently, add more value to Jeju.

A Study on Spatial Pattern of Impact Area of Intersection Using Digital Tachograph Data and Traffic Assignment Model (차량 운행기록정보와 통행배정 모형을 이용한 교차로 영향권의 공간적 패턴에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Seungjun;HONG, Kiman;KIM, Taegyun;SEO, Hyeon;CHO, Joong Rae;HONG, Young Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.155-168
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we studied the directional pattern of entering the intersection from the intersection upstream link prior to predicting short future (such as 5 or 10 minutes) intersection direction traffic volume on the interrupted flow, and examined the possibility of traffic volume prediction using traffic assignment model. The analysis method of this study is to investigate the similarity of patterns by performing cluster analysis with the ratio of traffic volume by intersection direction divided by 2 hours using taxi DTG (Digital Tachograph) data (1 week). Also, for linking with the result of the traffic assignment model, this study compares the impact area of 5 minutes or 10 minutes from the center of the intersection with the analysis result of taxi DTG data. To do this, we have developed an algorithm to set the impact area of intersection, using the taxi DTG data and traffic assignment model. As a result of the analysis, the intersection entry pattern of the taxi is grouped into 12, and the Cubic Clustering Criterion indicating the confidence level of clustering is 6.92. As a result of correlation analysis with the impact area of the traffic assignment model, the correlation coefficient for the impact area of 5 minutes was analyzed as 0.86, and significant results were obtained. However, it was analyzed that the correlation coefficient is slightly lowered to 0.69 in the impact area of 10 minutes from the center of the intersection, but this was due to insufficient accuracy of O/D (Origin/Destination) travel and network data. In future, if accuracy of traffic network and accuracy of O/D traffic by time are improved, it is expected that it will be able to utilize traffic volume data calculated from traffic assignment model when controlling traffic signals at intersections.

Changes of Soil Properties through the Remediation Processes and Techniques for the Restoration of Remediated Soils (오염 토양 정화공정에 의한 토양의 특성 변화 및 정화토의 회복기술)

  • Lee, Sang-Woo;Lee, Woo-Chun;Lee, Sang-Hun;Kim, Soon-Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.441-477
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    • 2020
  • There have been raised other environmental issues related to remediated soils piled up in numerous carry-out processing facilities because a considerable quantity of them have been produced every year, but most of them have not been relevantly reused or recycled. Thus, this article reports the trend of researches on the development of techniques to restore the quality of remediated soils to activate their reuse and recycling. Firstly, the tendency of change in soil properties through remediation processes was looked over, and then the degradation of soil quality was characterized according to the type of remediation processes. Besides, the direction of policy to promote the reuse and recycling of remediated soils was introduced, and finally, the future works needed were suggested. This article was prepared based on the results of the survey of domestic and foreign literature. A number of literature were reviewed to scrutinize the change of soil properties due to remediation processes and diverse techniques for the amendment and restoration of remediated soils. Furthermore, the policies related to the reuse and recycling of remediated soils were arranged with the reference of the first and second versions of the Soil Conservation Master Plan of Korea. The literature survey focused on three kinds of remediation technologies, such as land farming, soil washing, and thermal desorption, which were most frequently used so far in Korea. The results indicate that the tendency of change in soil properties was significantly different depending on the type of remediation processes applied, and the degradation characteristics of soil quality were also totally different between them. The soil amendment and restoration can be categorized as three techniques depending on the type of substances used, such as inorganic, organic, and biological ones. Diverse individual materials have been used, and the soil properties improved or enhanced were dependent on the type of specific materials utilized. However, few studies on the restoration of soil qualities degraded during the remediation processes have not been carried out so far. The second Soil Conservation Master Plan states the quality certification and target management system of remediated soils, and it is expected that their reuse and recycling will be facilitated hereafter. With the consideration of the type of remediation processes implemented and public utility, the restoration technologies of remediated soils should be developed for the vitalization of their reuse and recycling. Besides, practical and specific measures should be taken to support the policy specified in the second Soil Conservation Master Plan and to promote reuse/recycling of remediated soils.

Evaluation of Disaster Resilience Scorecard for the UN International Safety City Certification of Incheon Metropolitan City (인천시 UN 국제안전도시 인증을 위한 재난 복원력 스코어카드 평가)

  • Kim, Yong-Moon;Lee, Tae-Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.59-75
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    • 2020
  • This study is a case study that applied 'UNDRR's Urban Disaster Resilience Scorecard', an evaluation tool necessary for Incheon Metropolitan City to be certified as an international safe city. I would like to present an example that the results derived from this scorecard contributed to the Incheon Metropolitan City Disaster Reduction Plan. Of course, the Disaster Resilience Scorecard can't provide a way to improve the resilience of every disaster facing the city. However, it is to find the weakness of the resilience that the city faces, and to propose a solution to reduce the city's disaster risk. This is to help practitioners to recognize the disaster risks that Incheon Metropolitan City faces. In addition, the solution recommended by UNDRR was suggested to provide resilience in areas vulnerable to disasters. It was confirmed that this process can contribute to improving the disaster resilience of Incheon Metropolitan City. UNDRR has been spreading 'Climate Change, Disaster-resistant City Creation Campaign', aka MCR (Making Cities Resilient) Campaign, to cities all over the world since 2010 to reduce global cities' disasters. By applying the disaster relief guidelines adopted by UNDRR, governments, local governments, and neighboring cities are encouraged to collaborate. As a result of this study, Incheon Metropolitan city's UN Urban Resilience Scorecard was evaluated as a strong resilience field by obtaining scores of 4 or more (4.3~5.0) in 5 of 10 essentials; 1. Prepare organization for disaster resilience and prepare for implementation, 4. Strong resilience Urban development and design pursuit, 5. Preservation of natural cushions to enhance the protection provided by natural ecosystems, 9. Ensure effective disaster preparedness and response, 10. Rapid restoration and better reconstruction. On the other hand, in the other five fields, scores of less than 4 (3.20~3.85) were obtained and evaluated as weak resilience field; 2. Analyze, understand and utilize current and future risk scenarios, 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience, 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience, 7. Understanding and strengthening social competence for resilience, 8. Strengthen resilience of infrastructure. In addition, through this study, the risk factors faced by Incheon Metropolitan City could be identified by priority, resilience improvement measures to minimize disaster risks, urban safety-based urban development plans, available disaster reduction resources, and integrated disasters. Measures were prepared.

Estimating the Changes in Forest Carbon Dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis Forests in South Korea under the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 산림 탄소 동태 변화 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Jongyeol;Han, Seung Hyun;Kim, Seongjun;Chang, Hanna;Yi, Myong Jong;Park, Gwan Soo;Kim, Choonsig;Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2015
  • Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and $164.2g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and $193.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.

Evaluation of Present Curriculum for Devlopment of Dept. of Radiological Science Curriculum (방사선학과 교육과정 개선을 위한 현 교육과정 평가)

  • Kang, Se-Sik;Kim, Chang-Soo;Choi, Seok-Yoon;Ko, Seong-Jin;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.242-251
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    • 2011
  • A curriculum of study demands a change as period of time and society evolve. Therefore, at this point where changes are required, this study is to analyze and evaluate the curriculums which will enhance and improve current studies as a preceding stage. The research was based on the survey by groups of education experts and 19 universities with current curriculum of study in radiologic science, and their references. The study was focused on the scope of work by radiologic technologist, change of college systems, academic research about radiologic science, and the improvement and the future of radiologic science field in perspective to globalization and the digital era. In terms of work scope, angiography and interventional radiology at 6 to 8 schools, fluoroscopy at 4 schools, ultrasound and practices at 6 schools, magnetic resonance image at 2 schools were found to be unestablished. The basic medical subjects, humuan physiology, human anatomy and practices, medical terminology courses were set up at most schools; however, pathology at 5 schools, image anatomy at 6 schools, clinical medicine at 11 schools were yet opened. Among the basic science and engineering subjects, general biology and its practices at 11 schools, general physics and its practices at 14 schools, and general chemistry and its practices at 8 schools were established which is about a half from a total number of schools. Only 4-5 schools established digital subjects such as, health computer, computer programming, PACS which are the basic major subjects. In order to provide academic improvement in radiologic science, digitalized education and globalization, and basis for future-oriented education for the field of radiologic science, including expanded scope of work, it is acknowledged that curriculums that are opened and run at each school need to be standardized. Therefore, the need for introduction of certificate for the radiologic science education courses are suggested.