• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.281-291
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• 2012

Recently, global economy has recovered and aspects of the renewable energy industry in the global competition is more fierce, the new growth engines of the major countries, including the United States and China, industry promotion policy as being deployed. Major advanced countries and Korea also invested a lot of money to wind power development as a part of renewable energy development and promoting the construction of wind power generation. The global wind power generation market is expected to further increase the scale to about 70 billion US dollars, thus, Korea as well as the installation of domestic wind power overseas actively considering. This study uses input-output analysis to estimate the role of wind power generation sector exports national economy. More specifically, this study shows what national economy effect of production-inducing effect, value-added inducing effect, and employment-inducing effect are explored with demand-driven moel. After define wind power generation sector what small sized of Input-Output table 168 sectors among 11 sectors, this study pays particular and close attention to wind power generation sector by taking the sector as exogenous specification and then investigating economic impacts of it. The wind power generation exportation case of overseas 100 billion won, production-inducing effect, value-added inducing effect, and employment-inducing effect are 205 billion won, 68 billion won and 1,054 persons, respectively. These quantitative information can be usefully utilized in the policy-making for the industrialization of wind power generation exports.

• Proceedings of the Mineralogical Society of Korea Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.7-24
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• 1996

'90년대 전반기 중 세계 경제 상황은 정치, 경제 및 환경의 급격한 변화에 따른 불황으로 유황시장에도 심대한 영향을 미치게 되었다. 이와 같은 경기의 후퇴는 다수의 생산자로 하여금 전반적인 시장 상황을 바꿀 수 있는 전략 변경 및 새로운 시장 개발을 촉진시키게 하였다. 최근에 전개되고 있는 극단적인 정치$\cdot$경제적인 변화는 재래시장과 무역균형을 변경시키게 되었다. 개선되는 세계경제에 따른 광범위한 구조조정과 지난 2년간 진행되어온 전반적으로 농업에 유리한 조건에 힘입어 1995년 유황공업은 회복이 시작되어 54.63백만 톤이 생산되었다 국제 유황 무역은 수요와 공급 면에서는 균형을 못 찾고 있다. 1995년 유황생산 중 무역량은 $45\%$에 이르렀다. 유황생산에 영향하는 요소가 변함에 따라 무역의 형태가 변하게 되고 세계 유황 수급 균형에 영향을 주게 되었다. 지난 2년간 있었던 유황생산 회복은 다음 십년간 지속될 것으로 예측된다. 대부분 수요의 증가는 자연가스의 생산을 지배하는 요소에 따라 결정 될 것이다 1986년 이래 유가가 떨어진 후 세계 에너지 수요는 연간 $2.3\%$ 증가하였다. 석유와 가스는 미래 에너지 수요의 증가로 $70\%$이상을 공급하게 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 회수 유황은 원유의 정제로부터 유래된 것으로 가장 신장이 큰 공급원으로 2005년까지 주요유황생산 부분이 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 주요 회수 유황생산국은 일본으로 전체의 $66\%$를 차지한다. 석유 정제로부터 회수 유황생산량은 동아시아에서 증가하고 있다. 유황회수 시설 투자는 일본을 위시하여 한국, 싱가폴 및 태국에서 이루어지고 있으며 이는 점차 증대되는 환경규제에 기인된다. 동아시아 공업국가 예컨대 일본과 한국에서의 유황소비는 인산생산 저조로 정체해 있으나 지난 10년간 여타의 아시아 국가에서의 유황소비는 꾸준히 증가되었다. 이 같은 증가는 앞으로 10년간 계속 될 것으로 추정된다. 이는 유황비료 소비가 4.81백만 톤에서 6.6백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상되고 이는 주로 중국이 내수 인산생산을 증가시키려는 데 기인된다. 더욱이 다가올 10년은 다수의 아시아 국가의 급속한 경제 발전으로 비료 이외의 유황의 소비가 꾸준히 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 10.29백만 톤을 생산하고 10.99백만 톤을 소비하여 1995년에는 70만 톤의 유황이 부족하였다. 이와 같은 영향이 계속된다면 동아시아 유황부족은 2005년에는 1.05백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 중국에서 황화철에서부터 공급되는 유황함량이 많아 이 지역에서의 원소유황의 진정한 균형에 대해서는 정확하게 평가되지 못한다. 1995년 동아시아에서는 1.3백만 톤의 원소유황을 일본, 캐나다, 미국에서 수입했다. 이들 국가는 앞으로도 이 지역의 주요 공급자가 될 것이다. 황산의 많은 양은 일본에서 이 지역으로 수출되는데 그 양은 1995년 10만톤 이상에 이른다. 더욱이 경제?환경적 이점 때문에 중국이 황화물에서 회수하는 유황대신 원소 유황의 수입을 지속적으로 증가시키고 있어 지역내의 유황 부족이 증가 될 것이다. 이 같은 상황진전으로 앞으로 10년 이내에 2.5백만 톤의 추가시장이 있게 될 것이다. 이 기간내 한국으로서 현재 326,000톤의 부족에서 2005년에는 309,000톤의 과잉으로 유황균형이 변할 수 있는 주요계기가 될 것이다 이 같은 과잉은 회수 유황생산이 1995년 333,000톤에서 2005년 870,000톤으로 $161\%$가 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 동기간 내에 기타 유황생산은 280,000톤에서 320,000톤으로 $14\%$ 증가되는 것으로 추정된다. 그리하여 2005년 한국에서 유황 공급은 1.19백만 톤이고 수요는 881,000톤으로 추정 된다. 미래 한국에서 유황의 또 다른 잠재시장은 식물양분으로서 이다. 인산비료 생산은 유황산업의 골격으로 1995년 세계적으로 인산비료는 유황소비의 53%인 53.60백만 톤을 점유하였다. 작물의 유황결핍 현상은 세계도처에서 나타나고 있어 식물양분으로서 유황시장은 20년전의 시장과 같이 현황을 띠는 시장으로 유황공업이 때를 만나게 될 것이다. 공업국에서 유황의 대기로의 방출억제로 자연 공급량이 감소되고 개발도상국에서 증산으로 유황의 탈취가 증가됨에 따라 유황 부족은 점차 중요한 문제로 확산되고 있다. 세계적으로 $1993\~1994$년간 7.52백만 톤으로 추정되는 유황 부족이 농산물의 수량과 질을 하락시키는 결과를 가져오게 하였다: 이와 같은 현상으로 유황비료의 수요가 증대되었고 산업계는 수요증대에 대응할 기술개발에 노력하게 되었다. 현재의 식량생산과 비료 소비추세가 지속된다면 아시아에서 2000년까지 매년 4.5백만 톤의 유황부족이 있게 될 것이다 이와 같은 유황비료의 부족은 적절한 대책을 취하지 않는 한 2010년에는 6.5백만 톤으로 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 경제발전으로 유황비료 장기 잠재시장이 기대되고 새로운 시장으로 $50\%$이상을 점유하게 될 것이다. 서구와 북미에서 유황비료 산업은 이윤 있는 잠재시장으로 인정되고 상업적으로 앞서 있는 시장이다. 점증하는 수요에 대한 대처와 유황비료의 성공은 시장에서 가격에 좌우된다. 실제로 북미와 서구에서 현재의 소매가격은 유황 톤당 $266\~466\$$의 범위에 있다. 인도에서는 비료로서 유황시장은 덜 발달된 단계로서 대표가격은 $120\$$이다. 이 가격 범위로 보아 2010년에 동아시아 시장의 잠재 유황비료 시장은 3.4백만 톤에 이르고 비료공업에서 추가로 얻는 이윤은 408백만 내지 1조5천억$\$$이 될 것이다. 이와 같은 시장이 발전 될 수 있는 것은 계속된 제품개발과 비료산업 시장개척에 달려있다.

• Industry Promotion Research
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.95-102
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• 2024

This study aims to compare the role of the public sector in the U.S. and Korean medical security systems and study response measures in the social risk situation of the COVID-19 virus. The COVID-19 pandemic was a typical case of a 'disaster' that spread across the world across borders in a short period of time and caused serious social welfare losses by increasing the annual number of deaths by approximately 4% in 2020. Threats to health security, such as changes in social order, unpredictable endings, prolonged control of daily life, and deepening inequality, affected the economy, politics, and environment as a whole, and people had to experience anxiety and confusion due to mental and physical stress. Furthermore, developed countries failed to provide help to low-income countries in the face of global disasters. In this situation, the country's disaster management capacity to minimize harm and secure resilience, especially disaster response capacity in the health and medical field, is inevitably very important. Therefore, this study compares how the health insurance system, which is a system to guarantee citizens' right to life, differs from the United States, a liberal health care country, and raises the need to strengthen the role of the public sector.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.330-342
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• 2016

The aim of this article is to explore some issues on the uneven regional development in the Republic of Korea. Along with this, case studies on the United Kingdom and Italy are conducted in terms of their wealth, inequality and regional development. In the period of 1995~2003, the UK experienced the intensified uneven regional development and continuous increase of its index due in the main to the delayed revitalization of industrial decline regions, neo-liberalistic local labour market and industrial policies, and institutional instability of regional policies. In the case of Italy, it seemed to experience relatively stable regional convergence. However, this was caused by the continuous decline of major metropolitan areas such as large cities, Milan, Turin, Genoa, to name but a few. The Republic of Korea experienced 'economic growth with spatial and social disparities.' Since 2003 the uneven regional development has intensified. Towards regional convergence, new engines of regional development, the investment in the specialization of small and medium cities, and supportive policies for industrial restructuring regions are required.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.185-212
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• 2017

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has restored a civilian government since the military had taken political power in 1962 as a result of general elections on 7, November 2015. But Daw Aung San Suu Kyi could not take part in the presidential election due to some restraints in constitution, so new government created the state counsellor position and the ministry of sate counsellor's office against military's resistance. It never publicized whether the military has to back to barracks including abolish of military's occupying the parliament seats. The ruling party is still taking laissez-faire to the military's political and economic role. The National level Ceasefire Agreement called the 21st Panglong conference launched in the end of August for a week, but stakeholders only insisted their demands. Rohingya issue is not involved in the 21st Panglong conference which aims to achieve national unity. The U.S. fully lifted a comprehensive sanction toward Myanmar since 1993, Japan promised huge grant assistance succeeding the former quasi civilian government. China strived to restore alienated relations of two countries. Although Korea kept Official Development Assistance, the summit which was planed two times in 2016 did not hold. The civilian government announced twelve points of developmental agenda in July 2016, instead of destroying the national development policy of the Thein Sein government. This agenda only showed the direction of policy not road map which was the same trend of the former government. The main direction of economic development stressed agriculture but manufacture like light industry was ignored.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.13-28
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• 2010

Korean service industry has been rapidly growing so far and economic trends in korea is shifting to service economy. However Information Communication Technology (ICT) investment and use in service sector are still relatively low in comparison with US. Keeping the current state of the service industry in mind, this paper is to review the potential productivity growth of service industry empirically by analyzing the effect of ICT on total factor productivity after investing the ICT using outlook of Korean service industry. The results show that service sectors, with more using ICT, show high productivity growth and stable TFP change during the financial period. Sectors with lower using ICT are more sensitive to changes in the business environment when compare to sectors with highly using ICT. Concerning the period of 1997-1999, the TFP growth of most of sectors slowed down and turned to recovery immediately afterwards, 2000-2002.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.119-145
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• 2018

Celebrating its $50^{th}$ anniversary in 2017, the leaders of ASEAN member sates have adopted a series of declarations and action plans for enhancing its institutional capability and functional cooperation. ASEAN's convening power is expected to underpin its centrality and resilience. Meanwhile, ASEAN's retreat from democracy has increasingly become a hindrance for its further development. This article reviews the process of ASEAN's community building and its external relations. First, it argues that there is increasing concerns over ASEAN's limited capability in dealing with regional issues mainly caused by the deprivation of human rights and the democracy in crisis. Second, this article considers the dynamics of ASEAN's external relations mainly focusing on its relations with China, the United States, and South Korea. The South China Sea issue and China's increasing economic influence in the region have contributed to the complexity of ASEAN-China relations. The ASEAN's responses to the shift in American foreign policy under the Trump administration posits the unity of ASEAN. The New Southern Policy initiated by South Korean President, Moon Jae-in appears to be a new focal point of Korea-ASEAN relations despite considerable challenges, which requires to maintain ASEAN centrality.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.245-271
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to examine and assess the major characteristics and changes of politics, economy, and diplomacy in Thailand in 2016. Specifically, it reviewed the New Constitution that was passed in 2016, the confrontation between different political forces and the trend of military regime around the New Constitution, and the political instability caused by the accession of the new king to the throne. This study also set out to figure out changes to the economy and foreign relations of the country, including its relations with South Korea, under the military regime and make predictions for the impact and future prospects of King Bhumibol Adulyadej's death on the politics and economy of the country. In 2016, the politics of Thailand took a step further toward the transfer of power to civil government and established a foundation for an authoritarian system. The draft of the New Constitution, which does not seem to be democratic, was approved by a referendum and enabled the military authorities to continue their political interventions, even after the general election. The New Constitution, in particular, reduces the power of political parties itself in addition to simply keeping the Thaksin's party in check; thus, anticipating ongoing conflicts between the military authorities and political parties. In this situation, the absence of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who used to play a decisive role in promoting the political stability of the country, and the accession of the new king to the throne raise concerns about the acceleration of political instability, which has continued after the coup and influenced the diplomatic relations of the country. Today, Thailand is distancing itself from Western nations that do not recognize the current military regime including the U.S.A. and EU member states and instead maintains a rapidly friendly and close relation with China. In 2016, the economy of Thailand made a gradual recovery rather than high growth. The death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej has exerted limited direct economic impacts only on individual consumption and tourism and is not likely to cause a recession. An economic crisis will, however, be unavoidable if the political confrontations escalate before the general election to transfer power to the civil government.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.95-129
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• 2017

This study surveys and reviews political change, economic performance, and regional cooperation that were carried out in 2016 by Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN. This paper reports that what has followed the inauguration of new governments in Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos fails to live up to the expectation and optimism that arose in the aftermath of elections and party congresses that took place in the first half of the year. In other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, where authoritarian regimes are faced with strong oppositions, the prospects for democratic change worsened to a substantial degree, as schisms and internal strives complicated the opposition camp as a result of instigation and intervention by the authoritarian leaders and their followers. In stable political systems, both democratic and authoritarian, no significant changes that may entail serious political implications were noticed. In 2016, the national economy of almost each and every country continued its slow but steady recovery that had started in 2014 and grew by 5% on the average. For 2017 onward, however, the earlier optimism that it would grow at least as fast dimmed down as uncertainty about the world economy looms larger due to the unexpected win by Donald Trump as U.S. president and the expected 'hard landing' of the Chinese economy around 2018. ASEAN declared the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) only one day before the New Year, but its track record looked already bad and unpromising by the end of 2016. ASEAN leaders were tied up by their domestic politics and affairs too tightly to take time off to work seriously to observe the schedule as laid out in the AEC Blueprint 2025. Korea's relationship with Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN was "as good as it gets" in 2016 as ever but could become subject to tough review in the near future, if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is found out to have been implicated in the ongoing Choi Sun Sil scandal and if the opposition wins the next presidential election to be held by this year.