• Korea Petroleum Association Journal
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• s.283
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• pp.49-54
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• 2011

최근 정부가 추진 중인 판매단계별 유가공개를 골자로 하는 석대법 시행령 개정 추진은 재고되는 것이 바람직하다. 이 같은 조치는 경제적인 측면에서는 물론 법률적 헌법적 측면에서 많은 문제점을 초래할 가능성이 크다고 할 것이다. 정부는 정유사에 대한 유가인하 압력을 가하는 대신에 유가의 절반을 차지하는 유류세를 인하하는 것이 바람직한 물가 인하 방안 중 하나임을 인식할 필요가 있다. 최근 보고에 의하면, 유류세를 10% 내리면, 취발유 값은 리터당 74.6원, 경우는 52.9원을 내리는 효과가 발생하고 소비자물가 상승률도 0.19%포인트 낮출 수 있는 것으로 추정되고 있다. 유류세 인하를 적극 검토할 필요가 있다.

• Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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• v.18 no.2 s.40
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• pp.47-62
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• 2006

This research was conducted to find out price change of education service. Consumer Price Index annual series data in Korea National Statistical office from 1990 to 2004 were used for analysis. First, education price indexes showed an average annual increase of 7.3% during the last 15 years (1990-2004), marking the highest increase among items in the CPI basket. The average annual increase in tuition fees and other fees, expenditure classes of education price. has been 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively. Secondly, an average increase in tuition fees for two-year college was higher, followed by tuition fees for kindergarten, private four-year college, national four-year college and secondary schools. An average increase in primary school textbook costs was higher in the category of 'other fees' followed by junior high school textbook costs, junior high school supplementary book costs and home delivery supplementary book costs Thirdly, there were no differences in price changes of secondary school textbooks, junior high school supplementary books, high school supplementary books among 16 locations. An average increase in after-school education (selective subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in Gwangju but lower in Seoul, compared with other cities. An average of 7% difference was seen annually among regions. When the year 2000 was considered as 100, the most significant gains were seen in Kwangju at 80% and Gangwon at 57%. An increase in after-school education (all subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in South Cholla Province but lower in North Gyeongsang Province. An increase in after-school education (all subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in South Cholla Province but lower in North Gyeongsang Province. An average of 7% difference was seen annually in the annual increase. When the year 2000 was considered 100, most significant increase was seen in Busan and South Gyeongsang Province at 37% and Jeju Island at 34%.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1377-1386
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• 2015

GDP gap is closely related with economic activity of a country as a whole, especially with the economic fluctuations which is called business cycle. GDP gap is regarded as an important variable for the monetary policy of the central bank because it provides information on the excess demand pressures and employment matters. However, GDP gap may not provide enough information of the effect of recent economic structural change or the environmental change of domestic and external economic condition. In this paper, the GDP is decomposed by statistical filtering techniques and various models are fitted to estimate the influence of GDP gap on Inflation and see if it has been changed. Analysis results show that the influence of GDP gap on inflation decreased in the 2000s while that of global GDP gap increased. These results also support that recent low inflation rate is due to the change of overseas economic condition, such as a slowdown in exports resulting from the global recession, as well as domestic factors.

• The Science & Technology
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• v.10 no.2 s.93
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• pp.8-8
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• 1977

미국 포드대통령은 지난1월17일 ,1977년 10월부터 시작되는 1978년도 예산교서를 발표한바 있다. 이 예산안은 카터 신임대통령 및 국회에 의해 수정될 가능성은 있으나 그중 과학기술에 관한 예산에는 별변동이 없을 것으로 예상되고 있다. 이 예산안에 따르면 과학기술 예산총액은 280억불, 한화로 14조원(500:1비로볼때)이라는 방대한 규모이다. 이것은 1977년도에 비해 약8%가 증가된 것이나 인프레에 따르는 6%의 물가상승률을 감안할 때 실질적으로는 2%의 증가로 봄이 옳을 것이다. 주요부문의 연구개발비와 그 증가율 및 기초연구에 해당액은 다음과 같다.

• Plant Journal
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.45-54
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• 2012

Estimated project cost and executed sensitivity analysis for domestic 500 MW coal-fired power plants with monte carlo simulation. As a result of research, the basis of constant price in December, 2011 and 95% level of confidence, the project cost in case of not having adjacent power plant was 1,870 billion won to 2,330 billion won and the project cost in case of having adjacent power plant was 1,240 billion won to 1,590 billion won. In case of not having adjacent power plant is sensitive to civil construction cost but the other case is sensitive to material cost.

• Journal of Korea Ship Safrty Technology Authority
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• s.21
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• pp.31-50
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• 2006

국제 유가 변동에 따라 우리나라를 비롯한 주요 석유소비국들의 경제적 타격은 극심하여 경제성장률 및 물가와 경상수지는 민감한 반응을 보인다. 특히, 석유 수입량이 많은 우리나라의 경우는 그 타격이 매우 극심하다. ’06년 5월 국제 유가가 배럴당 68달러 선까지 까지 상승하였으며, 현재 64달러 선을 오르내리고 있다. 유가가 80달러 선을 넘어서면 기업 10곳 중 6곳은 공장문을 닫아야 한다고 전망하고 있다. 본 연구는 유가 상승에 의한 연료비 부담으로 채산성 악화의 위기에 처해 있는 수산업계 애로사항 해결을 위하여 정부 주도하에 민간 기업과 학계 등의 참여를 통하여 연료비 절감을 위한 모델시스템을 연구 개발토록 추진하게 되었다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-105
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• 2004

1997년 말 우리나라의 경제위기는 외화보유고의 부족에서 비롯된 것이나 근본적으로는 1996년부터 시작된 한보, 삼미, 기아그룹 등 우리나라 재벌기업의 연쇄도산으로 대변되는 기업의 실패에서 기인하였다. 지난 30년 간 빠른 성장을 지속해 온 우리나라 기업이 90년대 후반부에 총체적 부실의 위기에 직면하게 된 것은 기업외적인 요인보다도 과다차입과 과잉투자, 전근대적인 지배구조 등의 기업 내부적 요인에서 주로 기인한 것으로 지적되고 있다. 그러나 일반적으로 기업실패의 원인으로 지적되는 과다차입과 과잉투자는 문제에 대한 정밀한 진단 없이 국민정서에 부응하여 인구에 회자되는 면이 없지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지난 40여년간 높은 부채비율을 유지하면서도 고도성장을 지속해 온 우리나라 기업이 왜 90년대 말에 와서 그것으로 인하여 도산하게 되었는지에 대한 심층적인 분석을 도모하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 우리나라 기업의 연쇄도산은 80년대 말 이래 급격하게 변화된 영업환경으로 인하여 기업의 영업위험이 커진 것이 직접적인 원인으로 작용하였으며 높은 부채비율은 총위험을 줄이지 못했다는 점에서 기업도산의 간접적인 배경을 형성한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 우리나라 기업이 지난 30여년간 투자수익이 자본비용에 못미치는 것으로 드러나 과잉투자를 해 온 것은 사실이나 과잉투자의 배경은 일반 물가상승률을 크게 상회하는 높은 지가상승에 있었으며 또한 80년대까지 정부의 성장에 대한 인센티브와도 직결되어 있었다.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-42
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• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.94-108
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• 2021

This study is to identify the internal and external factors of a company that can affect the rate of change in the inventory turnover ratio. In addition, by appropriately managing or responding to these factors, changes in the inventory turnover ratio do not occur abruptly, so that the company's business and financial performance can be improved. To confirm this, factors such as gross profit margin, cash flow volatility, advertising expenses, inflation, exchange rate rise, and leading economic index were selected, and these factors were predicted to affect the change rate of inventory turnover. Data of 85,878 companies were obtained from domestic securities listings, KOSDAQ listings, and externally audited companies, and multiple regression analysis was performed using the data. Gross profit margin and cash flow volatility have a significant positive (+) effect, advertising expenses have a negative (-) significant effect, and inflation and exchange rate rises have a negative (-) significant effect. As an influence, the leading economic index was tested to have a significant positive (+) effect. Through this, it is suggested that manufacturing companies can improve their business performance and achieve operational efficiency by well understanding and appropriately managing factors that can affect the change rate of inventory turnover.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.193-218
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• 2006

This paper examines the macroeconomic structural differences of the free floating exchange rate regime and the managed float exchange rate regime focusing on the Korean economy, and compares it to the two benchmark economies, Japan and Australia. Korea's shift to the free floating exchange rate regime from the managed float exchange rate regime came after the 1997 economic crisis. Korea's exchange rate policy provides a unique opportunity to study the different behaviors or roles, if any, of managed float and free floating exchange rate regimes. Based on a simple monetary model, we find that the exchange rates of Korea are more sensitive to the economic fundamentals under the free floating regime than under the managed float regime. Impulse response analysis shows that exchange rate pass-through into domestic variables, especially inflation rate, has a bigger short-term impact under the floating regime than under the managed regime. This finding is consistent with the view that the managed (or fixed) regime provides the domestic price stability necessary for the economic growth for the developing countries.