• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.282-288
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• 2015

A monte carlo simulation about shielding material and thickness of the syringe shield for radiation shield was performed. As a result of analysis, high atomic number materials such as tungsten, lead and bismuth have the highest shielding effect. However, $^{18}F$, $^{67}Ga$ and $^{111}In$ show high energy distribution in the region with thin shielding thickness. As the thickness of shielding materials increased, the energy distribution decreased due to reduction of ${\gamma}$-ray. In the case of low atomic number materials, they, showed energy distribution from highest to lowest, were barium sulfate, steel, stainless, iron and copper. Aluminum, plastic, concrete and water showed diverse aspect. they showed relatively high energy distribution because of increased ${\gamma}$-ray that penetrate the shield.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.11
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• pp.109-117
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• 2007

Uncertainty is pervasive in rock slope stability analysis due to various reasons and subsequently it may cause serious rock slope failures. Therefore, the importance of uncertainty has been recognized and subsequently the probability theory has been used to quantify the uncertainty since 1980's. However, some uncertainties, due to incomplete information, cannot be handled satisfactorily in the probability theory and the fuzzy set theory is more appropriate for those uncertainties. In this study the random variable is considered as fuzzy number and the fuzzy set theory is employed in rock slope stability analysis. However, the previous fuzzy analysis employed the approximate method, which is first order second moment method and point estimate method. Since previous studies used only the representative values from membership function to evaluate the stability of rock slope, the approximated analysis results have been obtained in previous studies. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized to evaluate the probability of failure for rock slope in the current study. This overcomes the shortcomings of previous studies, which are employed vertex method. With Monte Carlo simulation technique, more complete analysis results can be secured in the proposed method. The proposed method has been applied to the practical example. According to the analysis results, the probabilities of failure obtained from the fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation coincide with the probabilities of failure from the probabilistic analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.33-42
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• 1999

본 논문은 도로투자 사업성분석시 사업주체의 현금흐름을 결정하는 항목들을 고정값(Deterministic Value)이 아닌 확률적으로 추정함으로써, 사업의 재무적 변동으로 인한 위험도를 민간사업자의 견지에서 사업성분석과정에 내재화하는 모형을 개발하는 것이다. 즉, 확률적 비용추정기법으로 국소적으로 활용되던 위험도분석을 재무모형에 내재화함으로써 사업의 재무적 변동을 보다 포괄적으로 분석할 수 있는 틀을 제공한다. 본 연구에서는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션기법을 이용한 위험도분석(Risk Analysis)을 적용하여 사업성 평가지표와 비용의 확률밀도함수(Probability Density Function : PDF), 누적확률분포함수(Cumulative Distribution Function : CDF)를 산출하고, 그 결과로 해당 사업의 위험도를 고려하여 사업성을 평가한다. 이 모형은 사업의 모든 변동요인을 복합적으로 추정하여 사업기간 내 사업주체의 현금흐름을 분석할 수 있다. 따라서 사업주체는 효용에 따라 합리적인 위험도 관리 목표값(Target Value)을 선정하고, 사업의 위험도를 고려하여 건설비, 예비비를 결정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서 정립된 모형을 서울외곽순환고속도로(일산-퇴계원 구간)와 대전당진고속도로를 대상으로 사례분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 대전당진고속도로의 경우 사업성이 없으며, 서울외곽순환고속도로의 경우, 일부 위험도 발생변수를 합리적으로 관리한다면, 사업성이 충분한 것으로 분석되었다. 본 사례분석은 사업의 위험도를 반영한 사업성분석 방법으로 우리나라 민자유치대상고속도로의 사업성분석의 하나의 지침이 될 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.620-623
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• 2010

구조요소의 설계에서 유한요소해석은 매우 효과적인 방법이며 정확한 해석 기술을 요구한다. 그러나 제조 공정이나 환경에 따라 달라지는 재료 물성이나 불확실성을 내포하는 피로 물성을 확정적인 값으로 이용하는 등 입력 변수의 부정확한 정보로 인해 유한요소해석 결과를 신뢰하지 못하는 경우가 자주 발생한다. 실제 시험을 통해 설계의 결과를 예측하는 것은 경제적인 측면과 시간소요 면에서 한계가 따르기에 신뢰할 수 있는 유한요소해석 방법이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 고주기의 피로 해석을 위해 유한요소해석을 이용하여 스프링의 응력-수명(S-N) 파라미터를 역 추정하고 수명을 예측해 보았다. 이를 위해 실제 산업현장에서 쓰이는 자동차 서스펜션 코일 스프링을 예제로 사용하였다. 시험 모델에 대해 불확실성을 고려한 베이지안 접근법을 이용하여 입력변수의 파라미터를 역 추정하였으며, 마코프체인몬테카를로(Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 기법을 이용하여 얻어진 피로 물성 파라미터의 샘플 데이터를 이용해서 유한요소해석을 실시하고 신뢰수준 내에서 새로운 구조요소의 피로수명을 예측하였다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.607-627
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• 2015

As observed and experienced in EU ETS, allowance price volatility is one of major concerns in decision making process for $CO_2$ abatement investment. The problem of linearly non-separable profits functions could emerge when one power company holds several power plants with different technology specifications. Under this circumstance, conventional analytical solution for investment option is no longer available, thereby calling for the development of numerical analysis. This paper attempts to develop a Monte-Carlo least squares model to analyze investment options for power companies under emission trading scheme regulations. Stochastic allowance price is considered, and simulation is performed to verify model performance.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.113-128
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• 2004

To investigate major influencing factors on earth pressure acting on an arch-shaped cut and cover tunnel, Monte Carlo simulation based quantitative sensitivity analysis was carried out for mechanical properties of ground as well as excavation configuration-related design factors. From the sensitivity analysis, it was intended that effects of earth pressures from different influencing factors on a cut and cover tunnel should be numerically identified. Output factors used in the sensitivity analysis such as vertical and horizontal earth pressures at different tunnel positions were obtained from the finite element analysis. In this study, it was revealed that depending upon positions where horizontal as well as vertical earth pressures were acting, they were differently influenced by the same input factors. In addition, earth pressures acting an cut and cover tunnel depended mainly on the embankment at crown and the inclination of cut slope.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.107-114
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• 2023

X-ray fluorescence analysis has been widely used in the field of science and industry because it gives information about elements and their concentrations without destruction of samples. To increase analysis accuracy of fluorescence generated by photons of the transmission-type X-ray tube for mixture and compound samples would be recommend to have strong energy near 10 keV and 20 keV simultaneously. Tungsten of 9.65 keV and molybdenum of 17.48 keV were considered as targets with dual deposition structure for obtaining two strong characteristic X-rays, and the transmission-type X-ray tube was analyzed using Geant4 Monte Carlo simulation. The W-Mo structure resulted in strong characteristic X-ray near 10 keV and 20 keV simultaneously. A structure with Mo-W multilayers of 5 ㎛ thick also gave optimal spectrum. Various material combination and thickness optimization for the dual-structured target can give X-ray spectrum with strong characteristic X-ray of specific energies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.165-177
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• 1996

It is often needed to generate random numbers from truncated t-distributions to carry out Bayesian inferences, especially in Monte Carlo integration for estimation of posterior densities of constrained parameters. However, when the restricted area is an extreme tail area with a small probability most existing random generation methods are not efficient. In this paper, we propose an efficient acceptance-rejection method to generate random numbers from extreme tail areas of a t-distribution. Using some simulation results, we compare the proposed algorithm with other popular methods.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.27-33
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• 2013

In this paper, we design and analyze the performance of Coordinated Multi-Point (CoMP) techniques to the number of users for next-generation cellular systems. We perform Monte Carlo simulations with Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-Advanced) and confirm the performance from the graph of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). From simulation results, we show the significant performance gain when CoMP technique is used and also show better performance when we apply the various schemes additionally as scheduling and precoding.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.18 no.1 s.91
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• pp.101-108
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• 2006

Accurate prediction of time-dependent column shortening is essential for tall buildings in both strength and serviceability aspects. The uncertainty associated with assumed values for concrete properties such as strength, creep, and shrinkage coefficients should be considered for the prediction of time-dependent column shortening of tall concrete buildings. In this study, the column shortenings of 41-story tall concrete building are predicted using monte carlo simulation technique based on the probabilistic analysis. The probabilistic column shortenings considering confidence intervals are compared with the actual column shortenings by field measurement. The time-dependent strains measured at tall bearing wall building were generally lower than the predicted strains and the measured values fell within a range ${\mu}-1.64$, confidence level 90%.